2020-2024 HUD Consolidated Plan Housing Needs Assessment ... · Needs Assessment, Market Analysis,...

2020-2024 HUD Consolidated Plan

Housing Needs Assessment&

Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing

Afternoon Work Session

April 28, 2020

Purpose of the Housing

Needs Assessment

• Required to develop the City’s 5-Year Consolidated Plan

• Provides a comprehensive look at housing needs for all income ranges and special needs populations

• Provides direction to policy makers for future housing development

Consolidated Planning ProcessCitizen

Participation Plan

Housing Market Analysis

Housing Needs

Assessment

Analysis of Impediments

(AI)

Monitoring Plan

Certifications

Strategic Plan

Action Plan

❖ Nationally recognized innovation in planning

❖ Resiliency and sustainability after the storm

❖ Transforming communities one neighborhood at a time

❖ Shaping national, state and local policy

For over 30 years, J-QUAD has been a leader in strategic planning, research analysis, grants management, and support to public and private sector clients with an emphasis on housing, community development, and disaster assistance.

Housing Needs Assessment Process and ApproachProject Task Status

Phase 1

Project initiation, Data Collection, Research and Design

Housing Supply/Demographic/Socio-Economic Profiles

Community Engagement

Needs Assessment, Market Analysis, Future Housing Needs Projections

Phase 2

Draft Report of Analysis of Impediments (AI) and Housing Needs Assessment

Final Report of AI and HNA, Recommendations and Implementation Plan, and Presentation of Final Report

IN PROCESS

Qualitative Data Analysis Process

“can be factual but sometimes based on human judgement and perceptions”

Community Engagement: Surveys

Community Engagement: Focus Groups

SWOT Analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats

Consumer/Industry Preferences & Perceptions

Market/Location Preferences & Perceptions

Resident Survey Top Responses

What does your community need most?

• Improved roads and sidewalks

• Better and more affordable housing

• Increased public safety

• More and better jobs

Resident Survey Top Responses

What changes are needed to improve your neighborhood?

• Increased safety features• Increased transportation

options• More walkable community• Resources to help neighbors

take care of property• More neighborhood

communication• More code compliance

Industry Expert Responses

What is Arlington’s greatest asset?

• Recreational opportunities

• Sense of community

• Education

• Affordable housing

Industry Expert Responses

Which topics require the greatest focus?

• Housing

• Economic development

• Educational and cultural resources

• Transportation

• Land use and zoning

Quantitative Data Analysis

Demographics: American Community Survey, Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS)

Market Trends: ALN Apartment Data, Texas A&M Real Estate Center, ARBOR

Housing Activity: Planning and Development Services, Arlington Housing Authority, Economic Development

Economic Indicators: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Analysis, Local Data

Real Estate/Mortgage/Rental Housing Transactions: ARBOR, ALN Apartment Data, NCTCOG

Home Mortgage Disclosure Act

Population and Household Trends

Data Source: 2010 - 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates – U.S. Census

*Population Projection based on the Balanced Housing Model

Total Population

392,462

No. of Households

134,984

Median Age33.3

% Living in Poverty

15.7

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2025

359,410 367,154 375,305 383,899 392,462

441,259

131,668 132,247 133,601 134,846 134,984

Population Number of Households

PR

OJE

CTI

ON

2018

*

Housing Units

Data Source: American Community Survey (ACS) – U.S. Census

Housing Units by Structure and Bedroom

60%

3%

3%

4%

9%

12%

7%2%

Housing Units by Structure

1-unit, detached

1-unit, attached

2 units

3 or 4 units

5 to 9 units

10 to 19 units

20 or more units

Mobile home

Boat, RV, van, etc.

2%

14%

21%

43%

18%

2%

Housing Units by Bedroom

No bedroom

1 bedroom

2 bedrooms

3 bedrooms

4 bedrooms

5 or more bedrooms

Data Source: 2014 - 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) – U.S. Census

15 to 24 years0.4%

25 to 34 years10%

35 to 44 years17%

45 to 54 years22%

55 to 59 years12%

60 to 64 years11%

65 to 74 years17%

75 to 84 years8%

85 years and over3%

Owner-Occupied (%)

Households By Age and Tenure

15 to 24 years11%

25 to 34 years30%

35 to 44 years22%

45 to 54 years19%

55 to 59 years5%

60 to 64 years5%

65 to 74 years5%

75 to 84 years2%

85 years and over1%

Renter-Occupied (%)

Data Source: 2014-2018 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates – U.S. Census

Rental Units

1-personhousehold

2-personhousehold

3-personhousehold

4-or-more-personhousehold

19,751

14,298

9,405

14,595

Renter Unit by Household size


15,145

2,679

3,173

5,909

9,094

23,478

929

1, detached

1, attached

2 apartments

3 or 4 apartments

5 to 9 apartments

10 or more apartments

Mobile home or other type ofhousing

Renter-occupied housing units

Owner Units

12,067

24,682

13,838

22,479

1-person household

2-person household

3-person household

4-or-more-person household

Unit by Household Size


69,835

2,224

194

324

262

515

1,223

1, detached

1, attached

2 apartments

3 or 4 apartments

5 to 9 apartments

10 or more apartments

Mobile home or other type of housing

Owner-occupied Housing Units

Average Rent by Bedroom Size

Data Source: 2019 ALN Apartment Data

Units: 1,558Average Rent: $836

Units: 22,473Average Rent: $893

Units: 18,353Average Rent: $1,141

Units: 3,932Average Rent: $1,289

Efficiency 1 BED 3 BED2 BED

2017 Average Rent: $968.67

2019 Average Rent:

$1,046.47

2Yr Change in Avg. Rent:

8%

Fair Market Rent

2020 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX HUD Metro Fair Market Rent (FMR) Area

FMRAnnual Income

Needed to AffordHousing Wage

Zero Bedroom $838 $33,520 $16.12

One-Bedroom $945 $37,800 $18.17

Two-Bedroom $1,165 $46,600 $22.40

Three-Bedroom $1,579 $63,160 $30.37

Four-Bedroom $1,980 $79,200 $38.08

Data Source: HUD FY 2020 FMR Schedule

Affordable Rent

Arlington Wage

Minimum Wage $7.25

Average Renter Wage $18.32

2-Bedroom Housing Wage $22.40

Renter Households 60,407

% Renters 44.8%

Average Home Sales Price Trends

Arlington

$213,110

$228,340

$239,052

2017 2018 2019

Data Source: Arlington Board of Realtors & Texas A&M Real Estate Center

Home Sales Price Distribution

0%

0%

0.09%

3%

12%

54%

30%

0.09%

$1,000,000 +

$750,000-$999,999

$500,000-$749,999

$400,000-$499,999

$300,000-$399,999

$200,000-$299,999

$100,000-$199,999

$0-$99,999

% of Total Sales September 2018-2019

% of Total Sales

Data Source: Arlington Board of Realtors & Texas A&M Real Estate Center

Median Home Price Versus Median Owner Income

Texas A&M Real Estate Center

2011 - 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates – U.S. Census

$112,781

$143,144

$211,188

$73,357 $74,656 $80,338

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2011 2014 2018

Median Home Value Median Owner Income

Median Gross Rent vs Monthly Renter Income

$814 $861$997

$2,666 $2,738

$3,299

$0

$3,000

$6,000

2010 2014 2018

Median Gross Rent Median Renter Income


Housing Cost Burden

14%

7%

79%

Cost Burdened (30% or more)

Severely Cost Burdened (50% or more)

Not Cost Burdened

74,577Total Owner Units

26%

23%

51%

Cost Burdened (30% or more)

Severely Cost Burdened (50% or more)

Not Cost Burdened

60,407Total Renter Units


Senior Rent Burdened Households


3,590 51,647 5,093 56,652

Senior Rent Households Non Senior Rent Households Senior Rent Households Non Senior Rent Households

2010 2018

62%

47%

68%

48%

% of Renter Households with Rent Cost More Than 30% of Monthly Income

Total Housing Projections Summary

Model projects a need of 21,404 total renter and owner housing units in the next five years.

Renter households earning between $0 - $35,000 are projected to need the most units of any income category as this group has a 2018 housing shortage of 11,387 units.

By 2025, owner households earning between $15,000 to $35,000 project a surplus of 4,427 housing units. These units may be absorbed by households in other income categories.

Senior Housing Projections Summary

By 2025, seniors will grow from 17 percent of all households in 2018 to 23 percent of all households, the largest growth of any age group.

The senior renter income category needing the most housing units is the $15,000 to $35,000 category which has a shortage of 1,198 units.

By 2025, projected needs for senior housing is 11,917 units, representing 56 percent of Arlington’s total housing need of 21,404 units.

Analysis of Impediments (AI) to Fair Housing

Review of Arlington’s policies and procedures that promote housing choice and enforce fair housing law

Assessment of the following:

• Laws, policies and practices that impact the location, availability and accessibility of housing

• Conditions affecting fair housing choice for all protected classes

• Availability of affordable and accessible housing

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42 U.S.C. 3601 Fair Housing Act

• In 1995, HUD announced that “entitlement communities” must conduct an analysis of existing barriers to housing choice and certify that they are affirmatively furthering fair housing

• Applies to cities and counties receiving Community Development Block Grant, HOME, and Emergency Solutions Grant

• Applies to Public Housing Authorities receiving Section 8 Vouchers and Public Housing Funding

Federal Fair Housing Act

• The Federal Fair Housing Act was enacted in 1968 and amended in 1974 and 1988

• Prohibits discrimination in the sale, rental, and financing of dwellings and any other housing-related transactions based on the following federally protected classes:• Race • Color • Religion• Sex • Disability • Familial Status • National Origin

Analysis of Impediments (AI) to Fair Housing

City of Arlington must certify that it is affirmatively furthering fair housing by:

• Conducting an analysis of impediments within the local jurisdiction

• Taking appropriate actions to overcome effects of any impediments identified

• Maintaining records reflecting actions taken

Fair Housing Act 42 U.S.C. 3601

AI Approach and Methodology

• Demographic Analysis

• Community Profile

• Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) Analysis

• Fair Housing Law, Public Policy, Programs, Regulatory, and Complaint Analysis

• Public Participation / Community Input

• Racial/Ethnic Concentrated Areas of Poverty (R/ECAP) Analysis

• Identification of Impediments

• Recommendations for Remedial Actions

• Best Practice Strategies for Implementation

Demographic Analysis – Community Profiles

Compares impact of City’s demographic characteristics based on protected class members, race, ethnicity

• Population

• Poverty and Income

• Employment

• Educational Attainment

• Household Characteristics

• Public Transportation

• Housing

Assessment of disparate impact on protected class members

359,410

164,375

66,218

1,099

24,670

284

1,103

6,209

95,452

392,462

153,476

86,186

1,029

26,720

488

1,067

8,901

114,595

Total population9.2%

White alone-6.6%

Black or African American alone30.2%

American Indian and Alaska Native alone-6.4%

Asian alone8.3%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone71.8%

Some other race alone-3.3%

Two or more races43.4%

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)20.1%

2010 Population 2018 Population

Source: 2014 - 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) – U.S. Census

Population By Race and Ethnicity

42,083

33,126

8,957

3,050

5,907

21,746

18,121

3,625

66%

52%

14%

5%

9%

34%

28%

6%

Family households:

Married-couple family

Other family:

Male householder, no wife present

Female householder, no husband…

Nonfamily households:

Householder living alone

Householder not living alone

White Households by Type

19,516

9,225

10,291

2,145

8,146

10,679

9,261

1,418

65%

31%

34%

7%

27%

35%

31%

5%

Family households:


Other family:


Female householder, no husband present




African American Households by Type

23,378

15,051

8,327

2,751

5,576

6,913

4,774

2,139

77%

50%

27%

9%

18%

23%

16%

7%

Family households:


Other family:


Female householder, no husband present




Hispanic Households By Type


Households By Race and Ethnicity

Household Income By Race and EthnicityWhite Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic Arlington Total

# of % of # of % of # of % of # of % of

Household Type Households Households Households Households Households Households Households Households

Less than $10,000 2,705 4% 2,105 7% 1,250 4% 7,091 5%

$10,000 to $14,999 2,108 3% 1,697 5% 1,287 4% 5,509 4%

$15,000 to $19,999 2,219 3% 1,511 5% 2,090 7% 6,299 5%

$20,000 to $24,999 2,352 4% 1,532 5% 1,748 6% 6,016 4%

$25,000 to $29,999 2,208 3% 1,691 5% 1,864 6% 6,234 5%

$30,000 to $34,999 2,731 4% 1,595 5% 2,394 8% 7,214 5%

$35,000 to $39,999 2,222 3% 1,711 5% 1,558 5% 5,955 4%

$40,000 to $44,999 2,571 4% 1,873 6% 2,022 7% 7,053 5%

TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS EARNING

LESS THAN INCOME NEEDED TO

AFFORD THE AVERAGE MARKET

RENT OF $1,046 19,116 30% 13,715 44% 14,213 47% 51,371 38%

$45,000 to $49,999 2,004 3% 1,300 4% 1,600 5% 5,400 4%

$50,000 to $59,999 5,143 8% 2,989 10% 3,159 10% 12,185 9%

$60,000 to $74,999 7,291 11% 3,500 11% 3,384 11% 15,180 11%

$75,000 to $99,999 9,100 14% 3,599 12% 3,441 11% 17,232 13%

$100,000 to $124,999 6,594 10% 2,199 7% 2,283 8% 11,904 9%

$125,000 to $149,999 5,257 8% 1,120 4% 861 3% 7,876 6%

$150,000 to $199,999 5,343 8% 1,051 3% 777 3% 7,831 6%

$200,000 or more 3,981 6% 722 2% 573 2% 6,005 4%

Median Household Income $71,537 $50,250 $48,075 $58,502



Poverty By Race and Ethnicity

White Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic

# in % in # in % in # in % in

Age Group Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty

Under 6 years 1,061 0.7% 2,475 2.9% 4,241 3.7%

6 to 11 years 1,130 0.7% 2,803 3.2% 4,434 3.9%

12 to 17 years 1,048 0.7% 2,058 2.4% 3,147 2.8%

18 to 59 years 8,653 5.7% 8,622 9.9% 11,029 9.7%

60 to 74 years 1,593 1.1% 651 0.8% 1,041 0.9%

75 to 84 years 579 0.4% 117 0.1% 65 0.1%

85 years and over 245 0.2% 65 0.1% 34 0.0%

Total in Poverty 14,309 9.5% 16,791 19.4% 23,991 21.1%

Population 151,244 86,729 113,641

Arlington Poverty % 15.7%

MSA Poverty % 12.6%


Employment By Race and Ethnicity

Employment White Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic

Status # Employed % Employed # Employed % Employed # Employed % Employed

In Labor Force: 84,790 65.0% 48,116 74.7% 56,854 72.0%

In Armed Forces 177 0.2% 30 0.1% 27 0.0

Civilian 78,557 92.6% 47,248 98.2% 56,028 98.5%

Employed 81,295 95.9% 44,780 94.8% 54,030 96.4%

Unemployed 3,318 4.2% 3,306 7.0% 2,797 5.0%

Not in Labor Force 45,606 35.0% 16,263 25.3% 22,131 28.0%

Total 130,396 100% 64,379 100% 78,985 100%

Data Source: 2012 – 2016 CHAS

Cost Burden: Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS)

Income by Cost Burden

(Renters only)

Cost burden >

30%

Cost burden >

50%Total

Household Income <= 30% HAMFI 11,610 10,130 13,935

Household Income >30% to <=50%

HAMFI10,085 3,440 11,670


HAMFI5,920 545 13,950


HAMFI900 105 6,710

Household Income >100% HAMFI 415 65 13,750

Total 28,930 14,285 60,015

Income by Cost Burden

(Owners Only)

Cost burden >

30%

Cost burden >

50% Total

Household Income <= 30% HAMFI 3,460 2,855 4,390


HAMFI3,700 1,525 5,665


HAMFI4,650 860 10,650


HAMFI1,620 95 8,095

Household Income >100% HAMFI 1,875 155 46,030

Total 15,305 5,490 74,830

Minority Concentration:

Census tracts with a minority population of 50 percent or more

Poverty Concentration:

Poverty rate over 40% or 37.8% which is

three or times the average tract poverty

rate for the Metropolitan Statistical Area

(MSA) 12.6% currently, whichever

threshold is lower.

AND

Census tracts with extreme poverty that have high concentrations of

racial/ethnic minorities are deemed R/ECAPs

Racially or Ethnically Concentrated Areas of Poverty (R/ECAPs)

Arlington R/ECAP Census Tracts

Fair Housing Impediments by Type

1) Real Estate

2) Banking, Finance, Regulatory, Insurance and other Industry related

3) Socio-Economic

4) Neighborhood Conditions

5) Public Policy

Impediments and Recommended Actions

A. Real Estate

1) Limited housing affordable to very low-income groups and protected classes

2) Rising cost of development and need for additional development subsidies

Recommendations• Support increased production of affordable

housing through public private partnerships with developers and nonprofits.

• Facilitate mixed income developments providing access to below-market rate units.

• Maintain a list of lenders and affordable housing resources that leverage homebuyers' access to below-market interest rates loans.

• Continue collaboration between City, Housing Authority, banks, developers, nonprofits to expand affordable housing city-wide.

• Seek State and non-entitlement grant resources to increase funding for housing development and mortgage assistance.


3) Low number of loan applications and loan originations rates for minorities

4) Predatory lending practices

B. Banking, Finance, Regulatory, Insurance and other Industry related impediments

Recommendations

• Identify increased funding for homebuyer outreach and education, credit counseling and financial literacy to increase the number of minority applicants for home loans.

• Encourage banks to extend services to low-income census tracts and provide outreach to low-income and minority households.

C. Socio-Economic

5) Special needs population with disproportionate rate of lower incomes, barriers to housing choice and access to transportation.

6) Concentrated poverty and in higher incidence of minorities with lower incomes and limited housing choice in R/ECAP areas.

7) Limited access to healthy food choices for minorities leading to nutrition related diseases such as diabetes and heart diseases.

Recommendations

• Evaluate incentivized zoning as a source of funding for affordable housing and to reduce concentrations in R/ECAP impacted areas.

• Explore options for transportation assistance program using CDBG funds.

• Continue to increase New Market Tax Credit developments, explore Opportunity Zones, land banking, lease purchase, increased self-help initiatives and other strategies.

• Continue to expand job opportunities through recruitment of corporations, incentives for local corporation expansion, and assistance with preparation of small business loan applications.

• Evaluate applications for USDA Food Desert grant, and other grants to address health and access to healthy food among low-income populations.


D. Neighborhood Conditions

8) Limited number of available affordable housing units and resources to help low-income owners maintain their homes and enhance neighborhood stability.

Recommendations

• Explore applications for other grants to improve housing in one or more R/ECAP areas.

• Encourage developers to produce more mixed income developments.

• Increase self-help initiatives.

• Consider Build and Repair Program in partnership with school district students.

• Organize community tool shed and other neighborhood clean-up campaigns.


E. Public Policy

9) Limited outreach, public awareness and enforcement of fair housing rights.

Recommendations

• Evaluate enactment of expanded local fair housing legislation and explore fair housing funding for enforcement, education and outreach.

• Maintain and update the Affirmative Fair Housing Marketing Plan to support fair and open access to affordable housing.

• Provide outreach to private landlords to encourage them to attend fair housing training.


Next Steps

• 2020-2024 HUD Consolidated Plan for CDBG, ESG, and HOME grants

• 2020-2021 Action Plan

• Housing Needs Assessment and Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing

• Substantial Amendment to the 2015-2019 Consolidated Plan and 2019-2020 Action Plan due to COVID-19 response

May 5 Council action on the following items

Submit plans to HUD by May 15

New program year starts on July 1

Discussion

2020-2024 HUD Consolidated Plan Housing Needs Assessment ... · Needs Assessment, Market Analysis,...

Documents

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