Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Madhya Pradesh

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

Climate change will have a significant impact on the sustainability of water supplies in the coming decades. For instance, these impacts can have significant implications to the economic and social systems, which depend on water resources. Further, it is becoming more and more evident that the changes brought about by climate change have ramifications, in terms of shifts in the intensity and seasonal distribution of precipitation, warmer temperatures leading to increased evapotranspiration and an increase in the frequencies of extreme events, including droughts. Consequently, these changes can influence precipitation characteristics such as quantity, timing, intensity and indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs. However, groundwater will be less directly and more slowly impacted by climate change, as compared to surface water in rivers and water bodies.

Water Resources Systems of Madhya Pradesh

Many rivers originate within the Madhya Pradesh and drain in the neighbouring states due to the state’s centrality and topography. There are five major river basins in Madhya Pradesh, namely Ganga, Godavari, Tapti, Narmada and Mahi. The State is further divided into ten river sub basins namely, Chambal, Sindh, Betwa, Ken, Tons (Upper Ganga), Son (Lower Ganga), Narmada, Wainganga, Tapti and Mahi.

The northern part of the state drains largely into the Ganga basin and the southern part into the Godavari and Tapti (Tapi) system. The Narmada, Tapi and Mahi rivers flow from east to west. The Vindhyas form the southern boundary of the Ganga Basin, with the western part of the basin draining into the Yamuna and the eastern part directly into the Ganga itself. All the rivers, which drain into the Ganga basin flow from south to north, with the Chambal, Shipra, Kali Sindh, Parbati, Kuno, Sind, Betwa, Dhasan and Ken rivers being the main tributaries of the Yamuna, joining the Ganga. While, Tons and Son which originate in the state join directly the Ganga.

Figure 1: River Basins of Madhya Pradesh

The state is also endowed with varied hydrogeological conditions resulting in varied groundwater potential at different places. As per the latest Groundwater Assessment carried out by CGWB (2015), net groundwater availability of the state is 34.21 BCM (billion cubic-meter) and is at an average 57% of groundwater development stage. Gross groundwater draft in the state is 19.51 BCM.1

1 Central Groundwater Board, Ministry of Water Resources, Govt. of India, (2017), Madhya Pradesh Dynamic Groundwater Assessment – 2015, Bhopal

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources

Hydrological models are applied to simulate the impact of a changing climate on the water cycle as well as to project future hydrological regimes. To drive such a model, reliable information on climatological variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation or evapotranspiration) and on their distribution in space and time are required. Hydrological models are used after validating the model on the observations of current water availability and environmental conditions.

An impact assessment framework for spatial and temporal impact of climate change on water resources is given below:

Figure 2: Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources Systems

There are various models that have been developed to simulate the impacts of climate change on water resources and provide insights into adaptation strategies and water management plans. Some of the models are SWAT, MIKE SHE, Delft3D Hydraulic, Storm water Management modelling, MODFLOW, RIBASIM, WEAP etc.

Hydrological Model - Supply Analysis(will provide water resources assessment for all basins and sub-basins)

Observed inputs (terrain, landuse, soil, weather, interventions, crop management)

Calibrate Model

Impact on annual water

availability(Agriculture

planning)

Climate Change Inputs(Climate Projections)

ImpactAnalysis

Impact on seasonal water

availability(Irrigation water

availability, Installed power

capacity)

Impact on inter annual water

availability(Planning for water resources structure)

Regional Variability of Water

availability(Change in Cropping pattern)

Extreme events (Drought/

Monsoon period) Floods- higher

flows during wet season

Urban storm

Water Resources Vulnerability of Madhya Pradesh to Climate Change

Water sector vulnerability assessment study was carried out by UNDP in collaboration with EPCO as part of the project “Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Actions”. The study generated district wise vulnerability profiles and utilised SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to generate outputs for all the components of water balance (spatial and temporal) under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5). The study indicated that the overall water resource vulnerability of the districts in Madhya Pradesh is projected to increase towards mid-century under different scenarios as compared to the current conditions. The projected increase in water resource vulnerability is attributed to increased exposure to drought weeks and higher seasonal crop water stress, low recharge rates and increased pressure on the groundwater resources.

OVERALL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES

• Marginal to 17% increase in precipitation and marginal to 7% decrease in precipitation are projected towards mid-century for different districts

• Marginal to 22% increase in precipitation and marginal to 10% decrease in precipitation are projected towards end-century for different districts

• Increase in drought conditions in some parts of Madhya Pradesh (parts of Morena, Sheopur, Tikamgarh, Shivpuri, Gwalior and Datia districts) towards mid-century and end-century is likely

• Likely reduction in the projected flow to some of the reservoirs like Ban Sagar, Gandhi Sagar, Harsi, Lachura, Pagara, Tons, Daudhan of Ganga basin

• Stream flow at 75% and 90% dependability towards end-century is projected to increase as compared to mid-century

Figure 3: District Water Vulnerability Maps

WATER BALANCE OUTCOMES FOR RCP4.5 USING SWAT MODEL

Mid-century: The RCP 4.5 scenario indicates about 5% (46 mm) projected increase in precipitation in Madhya Pradesh by mid-century. The model results indicate that around 29% of this 5% increase in precipitation will get translated to stream flow. Similarly, 11% of this 5% increase in precipitation is likely to return as ground water recharge. In addition, Marginal to 17% increase in precipitation and marginal to 7% decrease in precipitation are projected in the project districts towards mid-century under RCP 4.5 scenario. Further, a marginal decrease observed in ground water recharge is also observed.

End-century: Projected increase in precipitation in Madhya Pradesh is about 4% (36 mm) by end-century. The model results indicate that this increase in precipitation will get translated to 11% increase in stream flow. The total aquifer recharge is projected to increase by 16% and an increase of 8% is projected in evapotranspiration.

Figure 4: Water Balance Outcomes for RCP4.5 using SWAT Model

Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector

With the changing hydrological cycle, it is important to strengthen ability to cope up with these changes through adaptation for sustainable development. For better understanding, the adaptation options can be classified into supply and demand side measures.

ADAPTATION – WATER DEMAND

Construction/modification of physical infrastructure

Policy, Water conservation, Water efficiency, and Technology

Adaptive management of existing water supply systems

Canal linings

Closed conduits instead of open channels

Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system

Reservoirs/delivery systems

Raising dam wall height

Increasing canal size

Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage

Inter-basin water transfers

Municipal and in-home re-use

Leak repair

Rainwater collection for non-potable uses

Low flow appliances

Dual supply systems (potable and non-potable)

Conservation programs

Irrigation timing and efficiency

Lining of canals, closed conduits

Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent

High value/low water use crops

Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application irrigation systems

Change in Cropping pattern

Domestic Agricultural

Change operating rules

Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply

Physically integrate reservoir operation system

Co-ordinate supply/demand

ADAPTATION – WATER SUPPLY

State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) Strategies

Comprehensive water data base in public domain and assessment of the impact of Climate Change on water resources of the State

Promote accelerated pace of surface water development in the state

Water conservation, augmentation and preservation with special focus on areas with overexploited conditions of ground water

Increase water use efficiency in irrigation, domestic and industrial purposes

Promote basin level integrated watershed management

Building Institutional mechanism for Climate Change Action Plan

State Government Schemes & Programmes

• NationalHydrologyProject• NationalWaterMission–StateSpecificAction Plan (SSAP)• MPResourceAtlasscheme• GrantinaidtoMapIT

• SurfaceWaterSchemes–MajorIrrigationand Minor Irrigation • AcceleratedIrrigationBenefitProgramme(AIBP)• DRIP(DamRehabilitation&ImprovementProject)• CommandAreaDevelopmentProgramme

• AtalBhujalYojana–NationalGroundwater Management Improvement Program• BundelkhandPackage• ConservationofUrbanWaterBodies• NationalRiverConservationProgramme(NRCP)• KhentKundYojana&BalramTalabYojna• JalJagaranAbhiyaan• TalaboKaUnayanikaran

• PradhanMantriKrishiSinchaiYojana• StateWater&SanitationMission

• NationalAfforestationProgamme(National Mission for a Green India)• IntegratedWatershedManagementProgramme (IWMP)

• StateKnowledgeManagementCentreon Climate Change

Initiatives by the State Government

The State government has been complementing climate change adaptation in the water sector through its various schemes and programs. Some of efforts against the targeted adaptation strategies are mentioned in the table below:

StateKnowledgeManagementCentreonClimateChange(SKMCCC,EPCO)Department of Environment, Government of Madhya PradeshParyavaran Parisar, E-5, Arera Colony, Bhopal-462016, Madhya Pradesh, IndiaWebsite: www.climatechange.mp.gov.inTel: +91 755-2460255, 755-2970499

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 55, Lodhi Estate, New Delhi – 110003, IndiaUNDP website: www.in.undp.org Tel: +91-11-42836125

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Sector in Madhya Pradesh

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

Climate change is expected to impact rainfall and its distribution which may bring more drought like episodes especially in the case of Madhya Pradesh where significant cultivable land is rainfed. The probable changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth and productivity. Further, degradation of soil and water resources due to high variability in precipitation will continue to challenge both rainfed and irrigated agriculture practices. These impacts may directly affect the socioeconomic, livelihood status of farmers thereby reducing their overall farm income resulting in distressed migration.

Agriculture Sector Overview – Madhya Pradesh

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Agriculture is the mainstay of state’s economy and about 72 per cent of the population depends on agriculture for livelihood. About 50 per cent of the land area is cultivable with cropping intensity of 150 percent (NFSM,2015). It contributes almost one-fourth of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) and constitutes about 60-75 percent of the rural income (State of Indian Agriculture,2016). Of the total gross cropped area, Cereals cover 38%, Pulses cover 22%, Oilseed covers 31% and other major crops include vegetables and cash crops. In addition, of the total gross cropped area, 64% is sown in Kharif season, 42% in Rabi season and multiple cropped area is about 31%. Rice, wheat, chickpea (gram) and soya bean are the major crops of Madhya Pradesh. Soybean crop has the largest area amongst the major four crops.

More than 30% of the cultivated land in the state is irriga-ted. In addition, the state registered its highest average agricultural growth of 9.3 percent between 2005-2014 in the country (State of Indian Agriculture, 2016). Further, the state has been also conferred with Krishi Karman Award from the Government of India for the fifth time consecutively. However, the pressures emanating from natural resource constraints and frequent climatic variations pose an enormous challenge to sustaining agricultural growth.

As part of the SDC-UNDP-EPCO project “Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Actions”, a detailed Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment was carried out to analyse the future impacts of climate change on various sectors like Water Resources, Forests, Health and Agriculture. For Agriculture sector, InfoCrop model has been used for simulating the impact of weather, soils, agronomic management (planting, nitrogen, residues and irrigation) and major pests on crop growth, yield, soil carbon, nitrogen, water, and greenhouse gas emissions. The model considers different crop development and growth processes influencing the simulation of yield. The total crop growth period in the model is divided into three phases viz., sowing to seedling emergence, seedling emergence to anthesis and storage organ filling phases. The model uses varietal coefficients viz, thermal time for phenological stages, potential grain weight, specific leaf area, maximum relative growth rate, maximum radiation use efficiency.

Agro climatic zones

Agriculture Profile (lakh ha)

Major Crops grown

Contribution to the GDP

Vindhya Plateau, Jhabua Hills, Nimar Plains, Bundelkhand, Malwa Plateau, Gird Zone, NHR Chhattisgarh, Chhattisgarh plains, Satpura Plateau, Central Narmada Valley and Kymore Hills

Net Cultivable area 154.55Area sown - Kharif 124.65Area sown - Rabi 112.15Double cropped area 77.78Gross cropped area 240.47Cropping intensity (%) 155.00Gross Area under 38.54 Irrigation (%) Rainfed Area (%) 62

Kharif- Soyabean, Paddy, Maize, Jowar, Tur, Groundnut etc.Rabi Wheat, Chickpea, Lantil, others

25%-30%

AGRICULTURE STATISTICS

(Source: MPSAPCC, 2014 and NFSM, 2015)

IMPACT ON SOYBEAN YIELD

Thirty-two districts of Madhya Pradesh grow soybean as one of their major crops. Soybean yield is projected to increase from 12% to 65% due to increase in precipitation, minimum temperature as well as Carbon Fertilization Effect (CFE) in the state for various climate scenarios at different periods (refer figure 1).

Figure 1: Change in Soybean yield - MC and EC climate scenarios (IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)

Climate Change Impacts on Major Crops in Madhya Pradesh

RCP4.5 Scenario: Projected increase (3%-37%) in crop yield is likely for districts growing soybean

RCP8.5 Scenario: Towards mid-century for most of the soybean growing districts, yield is projected to increase (6%-27%). More than 12 districts are projected to have increase in yield (more than 20%) towards mid-century

IMPACT ON RICE YIELD

Rice is grown mainly in eastern part of Madhya Pradesh. Districts where rice is the major crop include, Anuppur, Balaghat, Betul, Damoh, Dindori, Gwalior, Hoshangabad, Jabalpur, Katni, Mandla, Panna, Rewa, Satna, Seoni, Shahdol, Sidhi, Singrauli and Umaria. Due to the rise in minimum temperature and rainfall, rice yield is projected to increase for all the rice growing districts(refer figure 2).

Figure 2: Change in Rice yield - MC and EC climate scenarios (IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)

RCP4.5 Scenario: Increase in rice yield (24% to 55%) is projected for rice growing districts of Madhya Pradesh

RCP8.5 Scenario: Towards mid-century, increase in yield (30%-70%) for all rice growing districts of Madhya Pradesh is projected

IMPACT ON WHEAT YIELD

Madhya Pradesh is the major wheat producing state which is one of the major crops of the state. Climate change will negatively impact the wheat producing districts of Dindori, Balaghat, Burhanpur, Barwani, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Neemach and West Nimar. Overall, Wheat yield is projected to decline from 10% to 25% in the state for various climate scenarios at different periods (refer figure 3).

Figure 3: Change in Wheat yield - MC and EC climate scenarios (IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)

RCP4.5 Scenario: Towards mid-century, reduction in wheat yield (5%-15%) is projected for districts growing wheat. Projected decrease is highest in the districts of Neemach and Ashoknagar

RCP8.5 Scenario: Marginal reduction in wheat yield is projected towards mid-century (4% to 18%) and (11% to 39%) towards end-century for all wheat growing districts.

IMPACT ON CHICKPEA YIELD

Chickpea is grown in many parts of Madhya Pradesh. It is generally grown in low fertile rainfed areas. Chickpea yield is projected to decrease marginally towards mid-century and increase towards end century (refer figure 4).

Figure 4: Change in Chickpea yield - MC and EC climate scenarios (IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)

RCP4.5 Scenario: Chickpea crop yield is projected to marginally change (8%-7%) in chickpea growing districts towards mid-century and likely to increase by 10% in all chickpea growing districts except for Datia where marginal reduction in yield is projected.

RCP8.5 Scenario: Reduction in yield is projected towards midcentury in more than 8 districts. Magnitude of decrease is about 6% towards mid-century and likely to increase by 20% in all chickpea growing districts.

District-wise Agriculture Vulnerability

CURRENT VULNERABILITYDistricts namely, Dindori, Anuppur, Mandla, Balaghat, Umaria, Singrauli, Shahdol, Sidhi and Katni are currently very high vulnerable districts. Main contributing factors include food grains yield, irrigated area, wasteland, fertilizer consumption, net sown area and low rice and soya bean yield ( refer figure 5).

PROJECTED VULNERABILITYRCP 4.5 Mid Century: Four districts are projected to shift towards lower levels of vulnerability under RCP4.5 mid-century scenario as compared to current vulnerabilityRCP 8.5 Mid Century: Fifteen districts are projected to shift towards lower levels of vulnerability under RCP8.5 mid-century scenario as compared to current vulnerability.

Figure 5: District-wise Agriculture Vulnerability (IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)

Overall Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Sector

•Projectedchangesintemperatureandrainfallarelikelytoaffectthecropproductivityandcropwaterdemand (evapotranspiration). Hence, seasonal agriculture stress especially during rabi cropping season requires additional irrigation water supply during critical growth period of the crops•ClimateChangewouldnegativelyimpactproductionofwheatfrom10%to25%inthestateforvariousclimate scenarios at different periods•Chickpeayieldisprojectedtodecreasemarginallytowardsmid-centuryandgaintowardsendcentury.Increase is likely in the range of 3% to 15%•Soybeanyieldisprojectedtoincreasefrom12%to65%inthestateforvariousclimatescenariosatdifferentperiods•Significantincreaseinriceyieldisprojectedforallthericegrowingdistricts•UnderRCP8.5higherincreaseincropyieldisprojectedthanunderRCP4.5scenario

Initiatives by the State Government

•Constituted Krishi Cabinet for empowering to make agriculture more profitable and for its overall plan for development•Price Deficit Financing Scheme: A new scheme to hedge price risks in agriculture wherein farmers will be compensated for distress sales at prices below Minimum Support Prices(MSP) announced by Government of India •FarmPondfortherainwaterconservationandBalramKhethTalabYojanatopromotefarmpondsforconjunctive use of water resources as an adaptation strategy •SeedVillageschemefordistributionofcertifiedseeds•ParticipationofwomeninAgriculture•Annapurna,SurajSchemeforwelfareofsmallandmarginalfarmersofSC/STcategories•Zeropercentinterestcroploan•Separatefeederforpowersupplyintheruralarea•Expand storage and cold chain facilitation and strengthen marketing linkages for commercialization of agriculture sector

Adaptation Options at the Community Level

•Adopting new and appropriate technologies on soil and water conservation technologies through Krishi Vignan Kendra (KVKs)•Adoptdrought&heatstressresistantseedsanddrylandagriculturepractices•CropinsuranceschemessuchasPradhanMantriFasalBimaYojana(PMFBY)•AccessinginformationonclimateandweatheradvisoriesfromIMDandKVKsforcropplanningandirrigation scheduling•AdoptsustainableagriculturepracticessuchasCropDiversification,SoilNutrientManagement,DripIrrigation, Ridge-Furrow Systems, Agri-residue management etc

State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change(SKMCCC, EPCO) Department of Environment, Government of Madhya PradeshParyavaran Parisar, E-5, Arera Colony, Bhopal-462016, Madhya Pradesh, IndiaWebsite: www.climatechange.mp.gov.inTel: +91 755-2460255, 755-2970499

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 55, Lodhi Estate, New Delhi – 110003, IndiaUNDP website: www.in.undp.org Tel: +91-11-42836125

Climate Change Impacts on Forest Sector inMadhya Pradesh

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Forest

Climate Change is likely to impact forest biodiversity through biomes types and shifting forest boundaries. In the context of Madhya Pradesh, it is predicted that Climate Change may affect the composition and distribution of forests. These changes at the forest level may also affect the overall productivity which, in turn, may impact the forest dependent communities. In addition, it would induce migration of wild animals and may subsequently, increase the incidences of man-wild conflicts. Further, many invasive species may expand their spread, threatening the very existence of the indigenous species. Also, longer dry spells in forest areas may trigger frequent and intense occurrences of forest fires. To tackle the above challenges there is an urgent need to execute adaptation actions at the regional and state level.

Forest Resources of Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh has the largest forest area in India and it is one of the forest rich states in the country with more than 27% of its geographic area falling under forest & tree cover, as against 24.1% of the national average (ISFR, 2017). Most importantly, forest cover is spread across the State and it has remained stable over the last decade despite the State having a population density of 236 persons/ sq. km and a livestock population of 40.7 million. As per the Indian State of Forest Report (ISFR,2017), it was estimated that the forests in Madhya Pradesh stored a total of 695 Million tonnes of carbon (about 10% of India total forest carbon), out of which 367 Mt were stored as biomass, and the remaining 318 Mt were absorbed in the soils. Therefore, it can be inferred that forests in the State act as a natural carbon sink. However, the forest carbon stock could be impacted by climate change, alteration in land-use pattern, occurrence of forest fires and pest attacks. In the recent past forests in the State have shown a growing tendency towards getting fragmented due to biotic pressure.

Figure 1: Distribution of forest cover in Madhya Pradesh (Source: ISFR, 2017)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

As part of the MoEFCC-GoMP-SDC-UNDP project “Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Actions”, a detailed Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment has been carried out to analyze the future impacts of climate change on various sectors like Water resources, Forests, Health and Agriculture. For the forestry sector, the impact of climate change on forests and biodiversity has been assessed using Lund Potsdam, Jena (LPJ) and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVMs). The model simulates time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and properties, and allows mapping of changes in ecosystem function. It uses inputs on monthly climatology, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and soil type. Climate projections of multi-model ensembles obtained from Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) have been used for IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. Its key outputs were vegetation structure, plant functional types (PFT), and biomass carbon.

District-wise forest vulnerability distribution of Madhya Pradesh

The overall forest vulnerability of Madhya Pradesh districts is projected to increase towards mid-century and end-century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios as compared to current baseline scenario. The study also indicated that the tropical dry deciduous teak forests are more vulnerable to impacts of climate change in both the scenarios.

Reliable satellite based information over the last two decades suggest that forest cover in Madhya Pradesh has remained largely stable and has been slightly improving in the recent years (ISFR, 2017). The area of very dense and dense forests has also remained stable in the last decade, which suggests comparatively less degradation in the forests in the state. As can be referred from the below figure, the distribution of forest area under 3 categories (e.g open, dense, very dense) indicates a stable trend over the last fourteen years.

Figure 2: Distribution of forest area under different forest categories in Madhya Pradesh over the period 2003-2017 (Source: ISFR, 2003-2017)

3458

6  

3605

6  

3604

6  

3604

6  

3607

4  

3596

9  

3593

1  

3628

0  

3784

3  

3503

5  

3500

7  

3500

7  

3498

6  

3492

1  

3490

2  

3457

1  

4000

  6648

 

6647

 

6647

 

6640

 

6632

 

6629

 

6563

 

2003   2005   2007   2009   2011   2013   2015   2017  

FOREST  COVER  CHANGE(HECTARE)  (2003-­‐2017)  Open  Forests   Dense  Forests   Very  Dense  Forests  

Trends in Forest Cover of Madhya Pradesh

RCP4.5 Scenario: Towards mid-century, the forests in the central and grid region districts of the state are extremely vulnerable to the climate change. The vulnerability of the central region districts would further increase towards end century. Overall, 17 districts will be impacted by the climate change.

RCP 8.5 Scenario: Towards mid-century, the forests in the central, grid and eastern region districts of the state are extremely vulnerable to the climate change. In the end century, the forests in the western districts (including the North West and South West) region of the state will become more vulnerable to the climate change. Overall, 24 districts will be impacted by the climate change

Figure 3: District-wise Forest Vulnerability of Madhya Pradesh

Forest: Indicators - Biological richness, Disturbance index, Canopy cover, Slope and Vegetation shift calculated using using: Cordex South Asia daily weather datasets from Indian Institute of Tropical

Figure 4: Model simulated changes in vegetation distribution in the forests of Madhya Pradesh

Impact of Climate Change on the Vegetation distribution in Madhya Pradesh

Model-based projections of climate change and its simulated impacts on vegetation distribution in the forests of Madhya Pradesh indicates that vegetation or forest type will undergo change under projected climate change. Much of the vegetation distribution change due to climate change could be attributed to changes in temperature and precipitation and due to the increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. These projected forest grid changes exacerbate the vulnerability of the forests particularly in the case of fragmented and disturbed forests. Therefore, these grids may undergo forest type shift or may not remain suitable for the existing vegetation types in the short-term especially in central region of the state. Overall, forests in 33 districts will be impacted by climate change under RCP4.5 towards mid-century and 34 districts out of 51 are likely to be impacted by climate change under RCP8.5 towards mid-century. Similarly, forests in 42 districts will be impacted by climate change under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 towards end-century.

Figure 5: Projected change (%) in the distribution of NPP (kg C/m2) over the forests of Madhya Pradesh

Impact of Climate Change on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of the forests in Madhya Pradesh

Biomass productivity is one of the key indicators of forest vegetation’s health and increase in biomass productivity may translate into increased supply of forest products including timber, fuel wood and other NTFPs. Both, climate change and its driver elevated CO2 concentration in the atmosphere may impact biomass productivity. It is seen that the current NPP over the state of Madhya Pradesh ranges from 0.15 to 0.75 kg C/m2.

Currently, the NPP is higher in most of the Eastern, Central and Western districts of the State and it is lowest in the Northern districts of Gwalior, Bhindi, Morena, Datia and Shivpuri.

The NPP tends to increase all over the state in projected climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by mid- and end-century. Notably, low productivity areas of northern and western areas of the state gain in NPP under climate change projections.

The NPP increase is likely driven by the CO2 fertilization effect and increased precipitation projections. Increased productivity may translate in increased supply of forest products including woods, fuel woods and other NTFPs.

Overall Climate Change Impacts on Forests

• Dry Teak Forests are the most vulnerable to impacts of climate change followed by southern dry mixed deciduous forest and northern dry mixed deciduous forest in both high and low emission scenarios due to changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns• Under low emission scenario (RCP4.5), about 23% and 35.6% of the forested grids are highly vulnerable towards mid and end century respectively. Similarly, under high emission scenario (RCP8.5), about 27% and 48% of the forested grids fall under extremely high vulnerable category towards mid and end century respectively. • Under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 towards mid and end century, most of the districts are likely to be impacted by climate induced vegetational changes • Model-based projections of climate change and its simulated impacts on vegetation distribution in the forests of Madhya Pradesh indicates that vegetation or forest type will undergo many changes due to shift in the temperature and precipitation patterns• Ongoing as well as the projected climate change presents an opportunity in terms of increased net primary productivity in different parts of the state, thereby, increasing supply of both timber and non-timber forest products (NTFPs) and enriching the soil carbon and productivity by additional litter-fall

Initiatives by the State Government

• Institutionalcapacitydevelopmentandinfrastructuredevelopmentforpromotingplanningandimplementation of the conservation activities • Forest fire alert messaging system • Forest offence management system • Forest planning & geo mapping system

• ImplementationoftheScheduledTribesand.OtherTraditionalForestDwellers(RecognitionofForestRights). Act, 2006 • Forest Dwellers Survey System

• EffectivesupportforimplementationoftheEnvironment(Protection)Act,1986throughthemanagementofthe protected areas and areas outside the protected areas to be strengthened for wildlife and biodiversity conservation • Promoting Eco-Development Scheme for Villages inside Protected areas • Wild Life Management System • Eco-development Scheme for Villages inside Protected areas

• Afforestation work on a large scale with the help of local communities including the women in the denuded forestareastohelpinestablishingecologicalbalance,checkingdesertificationandprovidingemploymenttolocal communities, especially the women • Strengthening of Lok Vaniki Programmes • Joint Forest Management • Implementation of Forest Working Plan Prescriptions

• Densification of existing forests through enrichment plantations, generation of higher bio-mass, and better protection

• Conservationof environmentand theecological stability through treatmentof catchmentareasof rivers and areas sensitive of soil erosion.

• Facilitate sustainable harvesting, collection, processing, marketing and regeneration of NTFPs through procurement support from MP State Minor Forest Produce Federation

• Developmentofgreenbeltsintheurbanareastoestablishenvironmentalbalanceandgroundwaterrecharging • Urban Forestry Scheme

Adaptation at the community level

•Enhancinggreencoverbyundertakingsoilandwaterconservationmeasuresandafforestation activities in the barren and open lands

•AdoptingSustainableForestManagementProtocolsfortheconservationofforestresources

•Better local governance of forest resources and diversification of forest& non-forest based income sources

•Strengthening planned adaptation activities through effective forest management and silviculture operations at the local level

•Promotingdiversityofspeciesortreesvarietiesforresistancetoexpectedclimatestressors

•Community forestmonitoring can provide earlywarning of forest dieback, pest and disease outbreaksandminimizelossesfromforestfires

•Promotinguseofalternatesourcesofenergyinforestvillagesandadjoiningvillagestoreduce fuel wood dependency

State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change(SKMCCC,EPCO)Department of Environment, Government of Madhya PradeshParyavaran Parisar, E-5, Arera Colony, Bhopal-462016, Madhya Pradesh, IndiaWebsite: www.climatechange.mp.gov.inTel: +91 755-2460255, 755-2970499

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 55, Lodhi Estate, New Delhi – 110003, IndiaUNDP website: www.in.undp.org Tel: +91-11-42836125