2018 Midterm Election Forecast 10242018 - Prime...

2018MIDTERM ELECTION FORECAST

A PREVIEW OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION FEATURING:

POLITICAL ANALYSIS FROM PRIME POLICY GROUPcharlie black, chairman

r. scott pastrick, president & ceo

POLLING INSIGHT FROM PSB RESEARCHjason boxt, executive vice president

The Political Landscape

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-1

3

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-1

4

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-1

5

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-1

6

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-1

7

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-1

8

Dow Jones Average

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-1

3

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-1

4

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-1

5

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-1

6

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-1

7

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-1

8

Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dow Jones Industrial Average; Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-1

3

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-1

4

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-1

5

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-1

6

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-1

7

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-1

8

Consumer Confidence

The economy just keeps getting better

Source: Gallup “Satisfaction with the United States" 2018

35

62

2018 Jul2018 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2016 Aug2016 Feb2015 Aug2015 Feb2014 Sep2014 Mar2013 Sep

Satisfied (%) Dissatisfied (%)

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

But nearly two-thirds of Americans remain dissatisfied with the way things are going

Republicans care most about jobs and the economy while Democrats care most about healthcare

35

16

22

36 6

3

19

28

6

16

11

3 4

Jobs / Economy Healthcare Immigration Environment Education Terrorism Foreign Policy

Republicans (%) Democrats (%)

Which one of these issues matters MOST to you right now?

Source: Survey Monkey weekly tracking poll among U.S. adults; conducted Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2018

Source: Pew Research Center “The Partisan Divide on Political Values Grows Even Wider”

201720041994Median Democrat

Median Republican

Median Democrat

Median Republican

Median Democrat

Median Republican

Consistently Liberal

Consistently Conservative





The country is as polarized as it has ever been

The Trump Factor

96%

88%

86%

84%

84%

84%

83%

81%

79%

77%

67%

61%

52%

G.W. Bush

Trump

Johnson

Kennedy

Eisenhower

Nixon

G.H.W. Bush

Obama

Reagan

Ford

Clinton

Truman

Carter

Presidential approval within own partyAs of July of the second year

Source: WSJ/NBC News telephone polls most recently of 900 registered voters conducted July 15–18.

Trump is historically popular among Republicans

66 63 6358 58 54

49 46 45 42 40 38

4 8

-5 -8 -12

-48

-15

-54-63

-26

-12

-30

Clinton1998

G.W. Bush2002

Reagan1986

G.H.W. Bush1990

Nixon1970

Ford1974

Carter1978

Clinton1994

Obama2010

Reagan1982

Obama2014

G.W. Bush2006

President’s Midterm Party Losses and Approval Rating

Presidential Job Approval at Midterm (%)

Midterm Election House Seats Gained or Lost by President’s Party (∆)

Source: Gallup, American Presidency Project

Trump: 43%

Weaker approval of a President usually leads to his party losing more House seats

What does this mean for the midterms?

Source: FiveThirtyEight, August 22, 2018

Democrats need 23 seats to retake the House…

…and 2 seats to take the Senate

Where things stand now

Source: FiveThirtyEight Generic Ballot Tracker October 22, 2018; Historical data based on Gallup final poll for midterm elections from 1946 to 2002 and the RealClearPolitics average from 2006 to 2014.

Democrats have maintained a consistent and significant lead on the generic ballot

Generic ballots are good predictors of final results

The generic ballot points to a blue wave

78 8268

80

July 2018 October 2018

Democrat/Lean Democrat (%) Republican/Lean Republican (%)Midterm elections are “very important”

Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist polls, conducted July 19-22 and Oct. 1

+10% +2%

Republicans have closed the enthusiasm gap from the summer

Source: 270towin.com “2018 House Elections: Consensus Forecast” October 15, 2018

Fertile ground for Democrats to retake the House

Safe (Democrat)

Likely (Democrat)

Lean (Democrat)

Tossup

Lean (Republican)

Likely (Republican)

Safe (Republican)

LEGEND:

Seats won by party out of White HouseIn midterm elections since 1978

63

52

30

26

23

15

13

8

5

-5

-8

2010

1994

2006

1982

2018

1978

2014

1990

1986

1998

2002

1998

2002

Source: The Washington Post “Can Democrats win back the House in 2018? It’ll be tough.” March 6, 2018

Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to gain back control of the House of Representatives

Tea Party wave

Contract with America

Many of the most competitive races are in Republican-held districts that were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Source: The New York Times To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory. March 26, 2018

Toss up House race

25 Republican seats are in Clinton districts

Source: FiveThirtyEight “Forecasting the Race for the House” October 22, 2018

The best models give Democrats just above a 80% chance of retaking the House of Representatives

Senate

Source: 270towin.com “2018 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast” October 19, 2018

Safe (Democrat)

Likely (Democrat)

Lean (Democrat)

Tossup

Lean (Republican)

Likely (Republican)

Safe (Republican)

The Senate landscape is great for the GOP

LEGEND:

Source: FiveThirtyEight “Democrats’ Horrible 2018 Senate Map Couldn’t Have Come At A Better Time” May 1, 2018

Senate Election Schedule Democrats in… Republicans in…

Senators up in… Clinton States Trump States Clinton States Trump States

2018 15 10 1 72020 9 3 2 192022 11 1 0 22Total 35 14 3 48

Democrats are defending more seats in red states

Montana

Missouri W. Virginia Florida

IndianaN. Dakota+ 3% +11% +2%

+1% +12% +2%

Can red state Democratic incumbents hang on?

Source: RealClearPolitics Polling Average as of October 22, 2018

Nevada Arizona + 1%+ 2%

Watchlist: Nevada and Arizona are the most likely pick-ups for Democrats


Texas Tennessee + 7%+ 7%

Watchlist: If the wave is big enough, even Republicans in traditionally red states could be at risk


Source: FiveThirtyEight “Forecasting the Race for the Senate” October 22, 2018

The best models give Republicans an 80% chance of retaining control of the Senate

2018MIDTERM ELECTION FORECAST

A PREVIEW OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION FEATURING:

POLITICAL ANALYSIS FROM PRIME POLICY GROUPcharlie black, chairman

r. scott pastrick, president & ceo

POLLING INSIGHT FROM PSB RESEARCHjason boxt, executive vice president

2018 Midterm Election Forecast 10242018 - Prime...

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