2017 Mortgage Opportunity Report: Top 25 Metro Markets · Inman News, and the Credit Union Journal....

2017

Mortgage Opportunity Report:

Top 25 Metro MarketsA detailed look at future purchase mortgage origination

opportunity in 25 of the nation’s top metro markets.

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Our Products

iEmergent provides predictive data that quantifies what’s next in mortgage markets across the nation. Asmortgage environment changes, our forecasts drill down into states, metro areas, counties, and zip codes toquantify where and how mortgage opportunity will grow, slow, or stay the same.

Lenders use Mortgage MarketSmart, a web application, with dynamic maps and tools to easily access ouranalytics. This powerful visualization tool brings HMDA and detailed forecast data to life, helping organizationseasily make decisions about high-level strategic opportunities and tactical, market-level challenges.

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iEmergent is a forecasting and advisoryfirm for the lending industry. Since 2000,we have been focused on delivering aforward-looking approach to helpingorganizations navigate the industry’schanging landscape.

In addition to our forecasts, we providestrategic advisory services to lenders ofall sizes and types, as well as mortgageinsurance, title, and investmentcompanies.

Viewed as industry leaders, we havebeen featured in Mortgage Bankingmagazine, HousingWire, NationalMortgage News, Origination News,Inman News, and the Credit UnionJournal.

Our Company

iEmergent - Company Overview

iEmergent helps lenders anticipate change to improve their profitability and competitive position – not just fortoday, but for the long-term. We provide the industry’s only market-level forecasts of mortgage lending activitywhich lenders use to:

How We Help Lenders

• Expand and grow responsibly• Improve sales strategies at all levels

• Optimize resources, brand, and locations

• Recruit, hire, train, and retain sales resources• Minimize distribution risk and meet CRA/Fair

Lending regulations

Lenders who use our predictive analytics to make strategic and tactical decisions capture more opportunity, more efficiently.

For more information about Mortgage MarketSmart,our forecasts, or advisory services, please visit

www.iemergent.com or call us at 515-327-0070.

2017 Mortgage Opportunity Report:

Top 25 Metro Markets

As 2016 comes to an end, many lenders are already building strategies and execution plans for 2017.Instead of depending on past or current mortgage market data to inform these plans, lenders use thispredictive report to gain insight into lending opportunities for 2017 and beyond. It examines 100 of thenation’s most compelling markets - with analytics on each that quantify not only its loan and dollar size,but also provide detail on its speed of growth, mortgage density, segment distribution, and competitivelandscape.

Report Overview

Prioritizing Top MarketsUsing its forecasts and analytics, iEmergent ranks and compares the mortgage opportunity of 100selected metro markets across all regions of the country. Many lenders may be surprised at the resultsof our ranking and prioritization method, with some smaller markets – like Bakersfield, CA – placinghigher than others like New York City or Charlotte.

The reason for this is that our approach considers more than just amarket’s size, as we also quantify andcompare each market’s speed of growth over the next five years, its purchase average loan size, thedensity of mortgage opportunity per 1,000 homeowners, and the competitive landscape in which everylender must operate.

Our analytics also compare borrower and product segments from market to market – from FHA andJumbo loans to First Time Homebuyer and Hispanic borrower segments. This data is crucial to lendersfor correctly matching their products, pricing, and –most importantly – their people to their markets.

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iEmergent projects that the U.S.mortgage market will originatemore than $1.025 Trillion inpurchase mortgages in 2017, anincrease of slightly more than 8%from 2016. Refinance activitywill drop approximately 35% asinterest rates rise and the pool of“in-the-money”homeownerscontinues to decline.

Despite an environment of new economic and political uncertainty, purchase mortgages will continue toincrease. Upside pressures on the purchase forecast include continued gains in home prices, improving newconstruction, and a national economic picture that is stable. Downside pressures, however, includetightening supply, home price gains that do not remain in-line with increases in wages and income, and theincreasing attractiveness of home equity lending.

This is the national outlook. The U.S. national mortgage market is comprised of tens of thousands of smallerlocal markets. The question to ask is this: what does a $1.025 Trillion purchase market mean for differentmarkets across the nation?

2017 National Outlook



Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) – The rate of growth of mortgage loans in a market over the next fiveyears. The MVI is used to easily understand how quickly one market is growing in loan unitscompared to the U.S.

Mortgage Opportunity Index (MOI) – The rate of growth of mortgage dollars in a market over thenext five years. The MOI is used to easily understand how quickly one market is growing in loandollars compared to the U.S.

Purchase Mortgage Generation Rates (PMGR) – The rate at which markets generate purchasemortgages.

Purchase Mortgage Density of Dollars (PMD - Dollars) – The density per homeowners (per 1,000homeowners) of dollars generated in a market each year. This metric allows for easy comparisonbetween geographies of different sizes.

Competition Ratios – Metrics that compare the competitive landscape in markets: Loan-to-LenderRatio (LLR): This most basic competitive metric quantifies the number of loans per lender in eachgeography (tract, county, CBSA, etc.).

Glossary – Market Drivers

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Table of Contents by MSA Rank

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Rank MSA Page1 Washington, DC 8

2 Riverside, CA 9

3 Las Vegas, NV 10

4 Phoenix, AZ 11

5 Sacramento, CA 12

6 Atlanta, GA 13

7 San Diego, CA 14

8 Orlando, FL 15

9 Los Angeles, CA 16

10 Miami, FL 17

11 San Francisco, CA 18

12 Chicago, IL 19

13 Houston, TX 20

14 Dallas, TX 21

15 Cape Coral, FL 22

16 Stockton, CA MSA 23

17 Seattle, WA 24

18 Tampa, FL 25

19 Baltimore, MD 26

20 Sarasota, FL 27

21 Austin, TX 28

22 San Jose, CA 29

23 Oxnard, CA 30

24 Reno, NV 31

25 Bakersfield, CA MSA 32

26 Naples, FL 33

27 Charlotte, NC 33

28 Jacksonville, FL 33

29 Minneapolis, MN 34

30 Denver, CO 34

31 Virginia Beach, VA 34

32 Raleigh, NC 35

33 Tucson, AZ 35

34 Columbus, OH 35

35 Modesto, CA 36

36 New York, NY 36

37 Portland, OR 36

38 Vallejo, CA 37

39 Albuquerque, NM 37

40 Fort Collins, CO 37

41 Bridgeport, CT 38

42 Port Saint Lucie, FL 38

43 Richmond, VA 38

44 Detroit, MI 39

45 Kansas City, MO 39

46 Cincinnati, OH 39

47 Indianapolis, IN 40

48 Philadelphia, PA 40

49 Memphis, TN 40

50 Colorado Springs, CO 41


Contributing Authors

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Laird NossuliChief Executive Officer 515-327-0070 (Ext. 103)[email protected]

Bernard NossuliChief Operating Officer515-327-0070 (Ext. 106)[email protected]

Fenn MeentsChief Growth [email protected]

iemergent.com

The mortgage lending data, projections and analysis contained in this document are in part provided by iEmergent. The information and opinions set forth in this document are for general information only. iEmergent makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, or completeness of this data, and does not guarantee any specific level of business results, performance, or gain as a result of the application of its products, services, or support. In no event will iEmergent be liable for lost profits or savings, for incidental, consequential or punitive damages, or any claim against your organization by any other party.

In providing this information, iEmergent is not providing any legal, accounting, actuarial or other professional services.

This document may not be cited, reproduced, displayed or distributed in whole or in part in any form without the prior written consent of iEmergent. All rights reserved.

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2017

Mortgage Opportunity Report:


Top 25 Markets: 1: Washington, DC

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2017 Market Demographics

Households 1,373,803

Homeowners 840,563

2017 Market Metrics

Purchase Units 67,892

Purchase Dollars $19.3B

Average Loan Size $284,198

Percent Refi (by Units) 43.2%

2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.72

MOI 1.54

PMGR 4.9%

PMD $28.4M

LLR 130.9

2017 Purchase Loan Percentage:Loan Type

Conventional 64.7%

FHA 20.0%

VA 13.6%

Jumbo 12.5%

2017 Purchase Loan Percentage:Race/Ethnicity

Asian 12.9%

Black/African-American 13.7%

Hispanic 6.4%

Indigenous Peoples 0.9%

White 67.8%

2017 Purchase Loans by County

2017 Purchase Loans by Census Tract

Top 25 Markets: 2: Riverside, CA

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Homeowners 1,396,396

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.50

MOI 1.31

PMGR 4.5%

PMD $23.0M

LLR 83.5


Conventional 57.6%

FHA 29.2%

VA 11.1%

Jumbo 11.8%


Asian 9.7%


Hispanic 26.4%


White 73.7%



Top 25 Markets: 3: Las Vegas, NV

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Households 776,936

Homeowners 412,633

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.73

MOI 1.38

PMGR 5.3%

PMD $22.6M

LLR 86.1


Conventional 53.8%

FHA 28.6%

VA 18.1%

Jumbo 21.3%


Asian 16.0%


Hispanic 15.2%


White 69.6%



Top 25 Markets: 4: Phoenix, AZ

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.33

MOI 1.18

PMGR 5.4%

PMD $20.7M

LLR 106.8


Conventional 62.0%

FHA 25.0%

VA 11.9%

Jumbo 14.9%


Asian 4.9%


Hispanic 12.2%


White 84.7%


Top 25 Markets: 5: Sacramento, CA

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Households 834,533

Homeowners 482,692

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.57

MOI 1.28

PMGR 4.6%

PMD $24.0M

LLR 61.4


Conventional 66.6%

FHA 23.3%

VA 9.8%

Jumbo 14.1%


Asian 14.0%


Hispanic 10.8%


White 75.4%



Top 25 Markets: 6: Atlanta, GA

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.32

MOI 1.09

PMGR 4.7%

PMD $17.0M

LLR 114.7


Conventional 68.6%

FHA 22.5%

VA 7.5%

Jumbo 14.7%


Asian 5.7%


Hispanic 3.5%


White 75.0%

Top 25 Markets: 7: San Diego, CA

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Homeowners 604,285

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.59

MOI 1.40

PMGR 3.6%

PMD $32.2M

LLR 60.4


Conventional 73.4%

FHA 12.3%

VA 12.5%

Jumbo 23.0%


Asian 11.5%


Hispanic 10.6%


White 79.7%



Top 25 Markets: 8: Orlando, FL

15


Households 896,664

Homeowners 538,590

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.42

MOI 1.22

PMGR 4.8%

PMD $17.7M

LLR 53.1


Conventional 67.5%

FHA 21.1%

VA 9.3%

Jumbo 12.3%


Asian 4.4%


Hispanic 15.5%


White 81.2%



Top 25 Markets: 9: Los Angeles, CA

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.74

MOI 1.49

PMGR 2.6%

PMD $28.4M

LLR 130.7


Conventional 81.8%

FHA 14.1%

VA 2.6%

Jumbo 26.1%


Asian 17.8%


Hispanic 15.5%


White 70.3%



Top 25 Markets: 10: Miami, FL

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.49

MOI 1.29

PMGR 3.3%

PMD $16.2M

LLR 70.7


Conventional 79.5%

FHA 15.1%

VA 3.9%

Jumbo 27.6%


Asian 2.1%


Hispanic 26.8%


White 74.3%



Top 25 Markets: 11: San Francisco, CA

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Homeowners 924,771

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.53

MOI 1.32

PMGR 2.8%

PMD $33.4M

LLR 88.4


Conventional 91.0%

FHA 5.9%

VA 1.4%

Jumbo 37.0%


Asian 26.1%


Hispanic 6.7%


White 65.3%



Top 25 Markets: 12: Chicago, IL

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.26

MOI 1.06

PMGR 3.6%

PMD $13.7M

LLR 120.4


Conventional 79.4%

FHA 16.3%

VA 2.7%

Jumbo 20.6%


Asian 7.0%


Hispanic 7.2%


White 82.7%



Top 25 Markets: 13: Houston, TX

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.08

MOI 1.00

PMGR 3.9%

PMD $15.8M

LLR 116.3


Conventional 71.8%

FHA 18.7%

VA 7.5%

Jumbo 14.8%


Asian 8.9%


Hispanic 12.4%


White 76.6%



Top 25 Markets: 14: Dallas, TX

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2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 0.95

MOI 0.90

PMGR 4.5%

PMD $17.9M

LLR 115.1


Conventional 67.8%

FHA 20.4%

VA 9.7%

Jumbo 14.5%


Asian 8.0%


Hispanic 8.6%


White 80.1%



Top 25 Markets: 15: Cape Coral, FL

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Households 297,656

Homeowners 196,500

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.53

MOI 1.33

PMGR 6.1%

PMD $20.6M

LLR 20.1


Conventional 77.4%

FHA 15.6%

VA 5.2%

Jumbo 22.0%


Asian 0.9%


Hispanic 5.8%


White 88.0%



Top 25 Markets: 16: Stockton, CA

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Households 226,650

Homeowners 124,910

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.99

MOI 1.74

PMGR 4.5%

PMD $22.3M

LLR 27.0


Conventional 67.9%

FHA 23.6%

VA 6.9%

Jumbo 8.6%


Asian 20.6%


Hispanic 23.5%


White 63.0%



Top 25 Markets: 17: Seattle, WA

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Homeowners 879,178

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 0.87

MOI 0.88

PMGR 4.3%

PMD $26.4M

LLR 116.9


Conventional 76.0%

FHA 14.4%

VA 7.6%

Jumbo 13.9%


Asian 12.4%


Hispanic 2.0%


White 80.2%



Top 25 Markets: 18: Tampa, FL

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Homeowners 784,288

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.17

MOI 1.04

PMGR 4.1%

PMD $13.4M

LLR 52.1


Conventional 66.6%

FHA 18.9%

VA 13.0%

Jumbo 11.1%


Asian 2.8%


Hispanic 7.8%


White 86.0%



Top 25 Markets: 19: Baltimore, MD

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Households 1,72,384

Homeowners 698,315

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.14

MOI 1.08

PMGR 3.5%

PMD $16.2M

LLR 65.7


Conventional 61.5%

FHA 24.3%

VA 12.2%

Jumbo 9.5%


Asian 5.6%


Hispanic 1.3%


White 78.4%



Top 25 Markets: 20: Sarasota, FL

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Households 342,965

Homeowners 242,540

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.33

MOI 1.17

PMGR 5.2%

PMD $18.1M

LLR 22.0


Conventional 79.4.%

FHA 11.7%

VA 6.8%

Jumbo 23.4%


Asian 0.8%


Hispanic 2.5%


White 90.5%



Top 25 Markets: 21: Austin, TX

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Households 767,667

Homeowners 443,153

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 0.88

MOI 0.89

PMGR 5.1%

PMD $23.9M

LLR 61.2


Conventional 69.4%

FHA 17.4%

VA 10.7%

Jumbo 14.2%


Asian 6.0%


Hispanic 10.7%


White 85.3%



Top 25 Markets: 22: San Jose, CA

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Households 672,646

Homeowners 374,770

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.44

MOI 1.31

PMGR 2.7%

PMD $35.2%

LLR 48.3


Conventional 94.1%

FHA 3.3%

VA 0.9%

Jumbo 37.6%


Asian 40.3%


Hispanic 8.9%


White 53.8%



Top 25 Markets: 23: Oxnard, CA

30


Households 276,200

Homeowners 175,280

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.57

MOI 1.35

PMGR 3.8%

PMD $28.5M

LLR 22.0


Conventional 77.8%

FHA 14.5%

VA 5.5%

Jumbo 18.1%


Asian 7.4%


Hispanic 15.7%


White 84.7%



Top 25 Markets: 24: Reno, NV

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Households 175,606

Homeowners 98,823

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.32

MOI 1.13

PMGR 5.1%

PMD $25.0M

LLR 36.0


Conventional 69.3%

FHA 18.7%

VA 10.7%

Jumbo 17.5%


Asian 5.5%


Hispanic 7.3%


White 87.8%



Top 25 Markets: 25: Bakersfield, CA

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Households 268,665

Homeowners 152,558

2017 Market Metrics





2017 Market Drivers

MVI 1.61

MOI 1.39

PMGR 4.2%

PMD $15.3M

LLR 31.7


Conventional 48.8%

FHA 38.2%

VA 10.3%

Jumbo 3.3%


Asian 4.6%


Hispanic 27.2%


White 82.8%


2017 Mortgage Opportunity Report: Top 25 Metro Markets · Inman News, and the Credit Union Journal....

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Transcript of 2017 Mortgage Opportunity Report: Top 25 Metro Markets · Inman News, and the Credit Union Journal....