2017 FGN Budget: Tool for Economic 1 Recovery and...

2017 FGN Budget: Tool for Economic Recovery and Growth

'Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D. August 2 2017

1

Outline

'Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D.

Background Impact of the 2014-2016 Recession Economy: Diversified or Not? FGN 2017 Budget Matters Arising from the Budget End Notes

August 2 2017

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Background


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Background

August 2 2017'Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D.

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The budget is a plan implementation tool that presupposes that there exists a plan or body of policies aimed at delivering specific objectives.

For a nation, a budget is ultimately aimed at solving societal problems that are multifaceted and interrelated.

This requires of the budget both internal consistencyof its elements and its consistency with other government policies.

In that case, the budget is derived from a plan, its components are interrelated (and rational) and it is consistent with monetary and commercial policies of the government. The government is one unit!

PresenterPresentation NotesIt is in this context that my review of FGN Budget 2017 is done.

Background (contd.)


5

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the year 2016 ended as: “For the full year 2016, therefore GDP contracted by

-1.51%, indicating real GDP of N67,984.20 billion for the year. This contraction reflects a difficult year for Nigeria, which included weaker inflation-induced consumption demand, an increase in pipeline vandalism, significantly reduced foreign reserves and a concomitantly weaker currency, and problems in the energy sector such as fuel shortagesand lower electricity generation.”

This was the outcome of non-inclusive growththat was hallmarked by humongous leakages.

Background (contd.)


6

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) responded to this and other challenges facing the nation by putting together an Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP (2017-2021) whose implementation is strongly believed will change the story of Nigeria. From a nation of import dependency to that of

enlarged scope of non-oil exports, high youth unemployment to gainful employment for her mostly unemployed youth, poor business climate to international competitiveness, low national / sectoral productivity to high level of efficiency, poor development indices to significantly improved living conditions, etc.

PresenterPresentation NotesThe highlighted items will be the focus of my interpretation of the FGN 2017 Budget

Impact of the 2014-2016 Recession


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8

Recession Affected All Sectors

August 2 2017

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0123456

Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16 Q1'17

Nigeria: Agricultural Growth Rate (%), Q1 2013 -Q1 2017

(20.00)

(10.00)

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16 Q1'17

Nigeria: Manufacturing Growth Rate (%), Q1 2013 - Q1 2017

(25.00) (20.00) (15.00) (10.00)

(5.00) -

5.00 10.00

Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16 Q1'17

Nigeria: Mining & Quarrying Rate (%), Q1 2013 - Q1 2017

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16 Q1'17

Nigeria: Trade Growth Rate (%), Q1 2013 - Q1 2017

PresenterPresentation NotesAgriculture was the only sector that maintained an upward (though weak) trend, while the rest suffered.


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Recession Affected All Indices

August 2 2017

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4.0

9.0

14.0

19.0

2010 2012 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16

Nigeria: Unemployment Rate (%)

New Rate (%) Linear (New Rate (%))

(2.00)

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16 Q1'17

Capital Importation ($'bl), Q1.2013 -Q1.2017

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

2003-Dec2004-Apr2004-Aug2004- Dec2005-Apr2005-Aug2005- Dec2006- Apr2006- Aug2006- Dec2007- Apr2007- Aug2007- Dec2008- Apr2008- Aug2008- Dec2009- Apr2009- Aug2009- Dec2010- Apr2010- Aug2010- Dec2011-Apr2011- Aug2011- Dec2012-Apr2012- Aug2012- Dec2013-Apr2013-Aug2013- Dec2014-Apr2014-Aug2014- Dec2015- Apr2015-Aug2015- Dec2016- Apr2016-Aug2016- Dec2017- Apr

Nigeria: Inflation Rate (Dec'03-June'17)

Recession Affected All Economic Agents


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Every economic entity was affected one way or the other by the abating economic recession.

Investors value diminution / low/no return Producers sales / profit collapse / low capacity

utilization Traders sales / profit collapse Employees job losses / pay reduction Job seekers few openings / no jobs Consumers reduced access Govt MDAs struggles in fiscal operations

PresenterPresentation NotesThe big and the small alike, whether individuals or corporates.

Economy: Diversified or Not?


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There is evidence that the Nigerian economy is DIVERSIFIED. There is a large variety of economic activities that go on

in Nigeria, each making tangible contributions to the GDP by the values they create.

Non-oil sector contributed 91.1% to GDP in Q1 2017, while the oil sector did only 8.9%.

The SIX KEY contributors (totaling 76.55%) are: Agriculture (21.35%); Trade (17.78%); ICT (11.56%);

Manufacturing (9.74%); Mining & Quarrying (8.95%); Real Estate (6.32%).

Summary puts agric at 21.35%, industries at 23.21% and services 55.44%.

Agriculture and manufacturing are strengthening.


Economy: Diversified or Not?

August 2 2017

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Economy: Diversified or Not? (contd.)

August 2 2017

13

Agriculture21.3%

Mining & Quarrying8.9%

Manufacturing9.7%

Elctricity & Aircon0.2%

Water Supply & Sewerage

0.2%Construction

4.2%

Trade17.8%

Accommodation & Food Svcs

1.1%Transport

1.3%

ICT12.4%

Arts & Entertainment0.3%

Financial & Insurance3.2%

Real Estate6.3%

Prof & Technical Svcs3.6%

Admin & Support Svcs0.0% Public Admin

2.3% Education2.2%

Human Health & Social Svcs

0.7% Other Svcs4.2%

NIGERIA: GDP Q1 2017


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Economy: Diversified or Not? (contd.)

August 2 2017

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The real problem of the Nigerian economy is not diversification of economic activities.

Rather, it is the fact that her foreign earnings are not diversified, yet she has persistently remained a net importer of non-oil goods/services to which has been added in recent years the net importation of petroleum oil (excess of value of refined petroleum products over that of crude oil exported).

The situation has been compounded by low confidence in the system.

FGN 2017 Budget


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Basis is ERGP

August 2 2017

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The budget is based on the ERGP that itself rests on three pillars: Restoring and sustaining growth; Investing in the people; and Building a globally competitive economy.

There are five execution priorities that we should see reflect in the five budgets to be implemented during that period (2017-2021). Stabilize the macroeconomic environment Agriculture and food security Improve transportation infrastructure Energy sufficiency –- power & petroleum products Industrialization with focus on SMEs


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Objectives of 2017 Budget

August 2 2017

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There are seven specific budget objectives: Expand partnership with the private sector; Focus on critical ongoing infrastructure projects; Build Special Economic Zones and Industrial Parks

to accelerate innovation and wealth creation; Implement the Agriculture Green Alternative Plan; Deepen the mortgage system with Social Housing

Fund; Stimulate growth of SMEs; and Provide Social Safety Nets for the poor and

vulnerable.

Budget Assumptions / Actual (2015-2017)


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Item 2015 2016 2017

Oil price assumption (per bbl) US$53 $38 $44.5

Actual Oil Price (per bbl) $100.35 $42.09

Oil production target 2.2782 mbd 2.2 mbd 2.2 mbd

Actual Production / Export 2.21 / 1.76 mbd 1.82 /

Inflation Rate (Actual) --- (9.6%) 9.81% (18.55%) 15.74%

Exchange Rate (Actual) N165/$ (N168) N197/$ (N305) N305/$

Monetary policy Tight Tight Tight

Year-end MPR 11.0% 14.0%

Debt Svc / Revenue (Actual) 26.18% () 38% (47%) 32.72%

Deficit to GDP ratio (Actual) -1.12% (-2.31%) -2.14% -2.18%

GDP Growth Rate (Actual) 5.50% (2.82%) 4.37% (-1.55%) 2.19%

• FGN Retained Revenue: N5,084.40 billion• Oil Revenue: N2.122.18 billion or 41.74% of total• Dividend (NLNG): N29.59 billion or 0.58% of total.• Minerals & Mining: N1.06 billion or 0.02% of total.• Non-Oil: N1,373.21 billion or 27.01% of total.• Independent Revenue: N807.57 billion or 15.88% of total.• Share Special Accounts: N6.64 billion or 0.13% of total.• Bal in Special Levies Accounts: N14.79 billion or 0.29% of

total.• Unspent Bal from 2016: N50.00 billion or 0.98% of total.• Share of Signature Bonus: N114.30 billion or 2.25% of

total.• Recoveries & Fines: N565.06 billion or 11.11% of total.

August 2 2017 'Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D. 19

FGN Budget 2017 Estimates

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PresenterPresentation NotesObservations:1. Oil Revenue is less than 50% -- diversification of revenue.2. Dividend from NLNG – reflection of improved transparency.3. Minerals & Mining – plugging leakages; revenue from under to the top of the table.4. Unspent balance from 2016 – reflection of government as ‘going concern’.5. Recoveries and Fines – transparency in utilization of loot recovered.

• Proposed expenditure: N7,441.18 billion• Statutory Transfers: N434.41 billion or 5.84% of total.• Debt Service: N1,663.89 billion or 22.36% of total.• Sinking Fund: N177.46 billion or 2.38% of total.• Recurrent (non-debt): N2,987.55 billion or 40.15% of total• Capital: N2,177.87 billion or 29.27% of total.


FGN Budget 2017 Estimates (contd.)

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Item 2016 2017 Change

Statutory Transfers 351,370,000,000 6% 434,412,950,249 6% 83,042,950,249. 24%

Debt Service 1,475,320,000,000 23% 1,841,345,727,206 25% 366,025,727,206 25%

Recurrent 2,648,600,000,000 42% 2,987,550,033,436 40% 338,950,033,436 13%

Capital 1,845,450,000,000 29% 2,177,866,775,867 29% 332,416,775,867 18%

6,320,740,000,000 100% 7,441,175,486,758 100% 1,120,435,486,758 18%

PresenterPresentation NotesObservations:1. Recurrent expenditure represents chunk of spending 40.15%, dominated by personnel cost (65%).2. Capital follows with 29.3% of budget.3. Then Debt Service + Provisions for Payment of arrears to Local Contractors at N1.84 trillion is 24.74% of total expenditure, but 36.22% of FGN Revenue.

• Recurrent (non-debt): N2,987.55 billion.

• Personnel Costs (MDAs) 63% (70.2% in 2015)

• Overheads: 7.4%• Pensions & Gratuities (SWV & CRF):

9.4%• Other Service-Wide Votes: 4.6%• Presidential Amnesty Programme: 2.6%• Special Intervention Programmes: 11.7%• Refund to Special Accounts 1.3%.



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FURTHER

PresenterPresentation NotesPersonnel cost at 63% is improvement from the 70.2% in 2015.

• Statutory Transfers: N434.41 billion



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A. STATUTORY TRANSFERS 2016 2017 ChangeNational Judicial Council 70,000,000,000.00 100,000,000,000.00 30,000,000,000.00 42.86%Niger Delta Development Commission 41,050,000,000.00 64,023,554,666.00 22,973,554,666.00 55.96%Universal Basic Education 77,110,000,000.00 95,189,395,583.00 18,079,395,583.00 23.45%National Assembly 115,000,000,000.00 125,000,000,000.00 10,000,000,000.00 8.70%Public Complaints Commission 2,000,000,000.00 4,000,000,000.00 2,000,000,000.00 100.00%INEC 45,000,000,000.00 45,000,000,000.00 - 0.00%National Human Rights Commission 1,210,000,000.00 1,200,000,000.00 (10,000,000.00) -0.83%TOTAL - STATUTORY TRANSFERS 351,370,000,000.00 5.76% 434,412,950,249.00 14.54% 83,042,950,249.00 23.63%

• Capital: N2,177.87 billion• MDAs: N1,717.83 billion• Capital Supplementation: N310.04 billion• FGN Special Intervention Programme: N150.0 billion

• Major allocations went to eight MDAs (61.43% of total):• Power, Works & Housing: N553.71 billion (25.42%)• Transportation: N241.71 billion (11.10%)• Defence: N139.29 billion (6.40%)• Water Resources: N104.25 billion (4.79%)• Agriculture & Rural Development: N103.79 billion (4.77%)• Industry, Trade & Investment: N81.73 billion (3.75%)• Education: N56.72 billion (2.60%)• Health: N55.61 billion (2.55%)



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PresenterPresentation NotesAllocations weigh in favour of infrastructure, security, competitiveness and social needs.

• Allocations are aligned to budget objectives.• There is internal consistency. Slide 23.• Social Housing (N100b out of envisioned N1tr), Special

Economic Zones (N46b), Export-Expansion Grant (N16b), Recapitalization of BOI and BOA (N15b), Rail modernization (N148b), Settlement of reconciled MDAs electricity bills (N40b), etc.

• Improved Transparency.• Some below-the-line items brought above the line. E.g.,

Dividend from NLNG, Assets Sale, Mining & Minerals and Unspent Balance from 2016.

• Concerns however, with non-disclosure of specific projects (deliverables) that empowers citizens to monitor and provide direct feedback on implementation, and of assets to be sold.


Matters Arising

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• Partnership with private sector.• No indication of which projects are to be offered on

concession to mobilize private capital for infrastructure development.

• Only collaboration (J-V) is on medical tourism (N9b) and with Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority!

• No project disclosure as we had in the 2016 budget.• Roads and number of kilometres (for example) that

enables cost verification and delivery vis-à-vis releases.

• Project scorecard for 2016.• No feedback on delivery of specific projects and other

deliverables listed in Budget 2016.August 2 2017 'Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D. 25

Matters Arising (contd.)

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• Rising debt profile.• All debt ratios point at rising debt service and

repayment burden. Slides 18 and 20.• Not worrisome now, but borrowings must be PROJECT-

tied, long-term, at concessional rates and utilizationstrictly monitored. See Slide 40 in the Addendum.

• Budget Act and Implementation scheduling.• Delay in conversion of the Appropriation Bill into an Act

is counter-productive.• Promise made during the presentation of Budget 2017 to

conclude process at the beginning of the year (rather than half-year) should be sorted out between the Executive and Legislature.


Matters Arising (contd.)

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End Notes


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End Notes


There is seeming correlation between investment in new/renewed infrastructure, economic activities, government (especially tax) revenue and tax compliance.

Underscoring all these is value-based budgeting as well as transparency and accountability in budget implementation.

This is how to ensure that FGN 2017 Budget truly serves as implementation tool for the ERGP and drives the turnaround of the Nigerian economy to avoid a ‘double-dip’ (i.e. reverse into a 2nd recession).

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End Notes (contd.)


Again, the government has been engaging with the private sector and other stakeholders on its fiscal operations, and this should be continued. Whatever will strengthen stakeholder engagement and

feedback should be actively encouraged.

Real implementation resides with those entities that are impacted, and largely on how they respond to those policies. If they comply, the policy succeeds. If they cut corners,

the policy fails! Only transparency can strengthen this.

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End Notes (contd.)


Nigeria should continue to push for performance-based budgeting, whose major benefits are: Improved achievement of public programme objectives; Better alignment between programmes and policies; and Emphasis on holding senior officials accountable for

deliverables in their line ministries.

It often results in improved control over government action, greater investigative and hearing power, and stronger links between budget execution, parliamentary authorization and medium to long-term plan.

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Thank you

God bless

Dr. ‘Biodun Adedipe, MIoD+234-8023061981

[email protected][email protected]

August 2 2017

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B. Adedipe Associates LimitedStrategy | Training | HR| ResearchLateef Jakande House (3rd Floor),

3/5 Adeyemo Alakija Street,PO Box 73983, Victoria Island,

Lagos. +234-1-4613794

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Addendum: Implementation Context for FGN 2017 Budget


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How’s the Economy Faring?

August 2 2017

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A second consecutive climb out of the trough, confirming the bottom out that I foresaw 7 months ago!So, where are the opportunities?

(4.00)

(2.00)

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17

Nigeria: Real GDP Growth Rate (%), Q1 2013 - Q1 2017


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August 2 2017

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There is recovery evidence in foreign trade statistics.

What’s Happening to Foreign Trade?

Manufactured goods exports in Q1’17 were 45% more than the value attained in Q4’16

Manufactured goods imports in Q1’17 were 3.3% lower than the value attained in Q4’16

-

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

4,000,000.0

4,500,000.0

5,000,000.0

Volume

Nigeria: Exports vs Imports

PresenterPresentation NotesForeign trade grew from the 2nd quarter 2016 up until end-Q1-2017. but imports slowed during the Q4-2016 and Q1-2017.


35

August 2 2017

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What does this upturn suggest?

Is CBN Intervention in TX Market Sustainable?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

200020022004-Jan2004-M

ar2004-M

ay2004-Sept2004-N

ov2005-M

ay2005-O

ct2005-Dec2006-Feb2006-Apr2006-Jun2006 Aug2006 O

ct.2007 Jan.2007 M

ar.2007 M

ay2007 July2007 O

ct.2007 Dec.2008 Feb.2008 Apr.2008 Jun.2008 Aug.2008 O



ct.2010 Dec2011 Feb.2011 Apr.2011 Jun.2011 Aug.2011 O



ct.2013 Dec2014 Feb.2014 Apr.2014 June2014 Aug2014 O

ct2014 Dec2015 Feb2015 Apr.2015 June2015 Aug2015 O

ct2015 Dec2016 Feb2016 Apr.2016 June2016 Aug2016 O

ct2016 Dec2017 Feb2017 Apr.2017 June

$ Bi

llion

Nigeria: External Reserves , 2000 - July 2017

PresenterPresentation NotesForeign earnings picked up, as Nigeria produced (2.1mbd) and exported more crude oil at favourable price ($54.4/bbl), and imports somewhat moderated.Hitting half the historical peak is a real fit, in an environment of tight oil earnings.

30-day moving average reserves has risen now from $29.07 bn at end-2015 to $30.36 bn on Tuesday, 11th July with liquid portion at $29.62 bn! This translates into 12.31 months of

imports! The exchange rate has gradually

depreciated and been devalued since 2014: N168/$, N262.25/£ and N204.15/€ at

end-2014. N197/$, N291.93/£ and N214.65/€ at

end-2015. N305/$, N375.18/£ and N322.11/€ on

Friday, 30-12-2016. N305.85/$, N398.77/£ and N352.83/€ on

Wednesday, 19-07-2017.

2015 Estimates

Country Reserves #China 2,992.8 1

Japan 1,242.8 2

Switzerland 685.6 3

Saudi Arabia 535.9 4

Mexico 176.9 13

Turkey 123.4 17

Indonesia 116.4 19

South Africa 46.8 38

Egypt 19.0 58

At #48 in the global ranking, the reserves per capita is unimpressive!


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Sustainable Intervention? (contd.)

August 2 2017

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PresenterPresentation NotesThe required international benchmark is for external reserves to be able to sustain at least, 6 months of the import bill. This benchmark is recently indicated(?) at 11 months by IMF.Total import figure (Q1.2017) was N2,206,508m (or $7.218bn), implying average monthly figure of $2.406 billion, and slowed due to recession and slowing persistently from $14.171 bn or monthly average of $4.724 billion in Q1 2015!Since Q1 2016, foreign trade has picked up consistently, but imports slowed.


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August 2 2017

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How do we interpret this?

Is CBN FX Management Strategy a New Normal?

149

199

249

299

349

399

449

Nigeria: Exchange Rates, Dec'2010 - Jun'2017

PresenterPresentation NotesObviously, the spike was the time that the Central Bank was pressured by a cacophony of voices to adopt flexible exchange rate system and freely float the Naira! That of course, is a huge aberration, as there is no country that freely floats its currency (even the US) – the job of the central bank is to defend and protect its currency by intervening in the markets as necessary. Too many experts that know nothing other than to echo what the Breton Woods institutions have said!


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Interest Rates The benchmark rate (Monetary

Policy Rate, MPR) was raised to 14.0% p.a. in July 2016 from 12% p.a. It seems that changes in the MPR

have not sufficiently impacted bank deposit/lending rates as well as changes in banking credit volumes.

The most volatile interest rate variant is the inter-bank rate, which is more of a reflection of the liquidity in the banking system (Federal allocations) rather than of changes in the MPR!

Rate % Date

Inter-bank 8.15 Jan 2017

13.11 Mar 2017

91-D NTB 13.95 Jan 2017

13.60 Mar 2017

Deposit 10.77 Jan 2017

10.57 Mar 2017

PLR 16.91 Jan 2017

17.43 Mar 2017

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Cost/Price of Money: Inconsistent?


39

The deposit and prime lending rates moved in adverse directions, respectively with deposits becoming cheaper to the banks and borrowing more expensive to borrowing customers. But actual lending rates were much higher – mostly at 29%

and above! Maintaining the MPR at 14% on the argument of inflation

risk, stabilizing the exchange value of the Naira and bond prices is more counter-productive to domestic productive activities than to investment in financial instruments. It only extenuates government’s cost of borrowing and

makes government’s debt instruments very attractive to astute investors.

This long spell of fixed MPR is also gradually making the rate to lose its strategic relevance as a signal rate!

Cost/Price of Money: Inconsistent? (contd.)


40

When an economy is seeking to get out of recession, the typical response is for the government to embark on massive spending, which is referred to as fiscal stimulus. Often times, the government may lack the

volume required and will therefore, have to borrow beyond the normal range for an economy that is either in boom or the recovery mode.

No professional economist will argue against borrowing to stimulate a recessed economy. But the question will always be to spend on what? If the answer is infrastructure, my take is to go ahead and borrow as much as you can!

Borrowing: What’s the Sense?

2015 N12.6 tn2016 N17.36 tnIncrease of N4.76 tn or 37.74%


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Fiscal + Other Policies: Right Direction (contd.)

August 2 2017

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Infrastructure – more attention Agriculture – food security Manufacturing – substitute imports for which there is domestic

capacity Solid Minerals – expand foreign earnings and government revenue Real Estate – bridge the housing deficit of almost 21 million MSMEs – reverse poverty trend Oil remains important, but fresh attention goes to Domestic

Refining and Gas (the latter is largely untapped 188 trillion standard cubic feet of reserves).

Government’s attention is on the following Sectors

All these will trigger massive wealth and job creation!

The market has been on a decline over the last couple of years, with back-back decrease in All Share Index.

The stock index closed in 2015 at 26,215.35 points, dipping by 18.87% from 2014, which is slightly worse compared to the decline of 17.99% in 2014 from 2013.

The market closed at 26,215.35 points in 2016, which is a decline of 3.78% from 2015.

The slow start to 2017 – slight increase to 26,306.07 points as at 30/01/2017, fluctuated between February and April, but significantly grew by 8.57% in May. See Chart overleaf.

As at 19/07/2017, it had climbed further to 33,514.93points or 27.84% growth (it was 34,375.60 or 31.13% on 20/06/2017)!


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The Capital Market: What’s in the Mirror?


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The Capital Market: What’s in the Mirror? (contd.)

The market capitalization also had similar trend, falling 3.74% in 2016 to N9.02 trillion.

As at 30/01/2017, the market cap had risen to N9.05 trillion or 0.33% growth, but further grew to N11.81 trillion or 30.50% growth as at

20/06/2017 and N11.55 trillion on 19/07/2017. This rate of return on investment is uncommon, whether in stock

markets (especially emerging markets at the moment) or the money markets.

BAA Consult


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Innovation – we always take a fresh look at every situation we encounter.

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2017 FGN Budget: Tool for Economic Recovery and GrowthOutlineBackgroundBackgroundBackground (contd.)Background (contd.)Impact of the 2014-2016 RecessionRecession Affected All SectorsRecession Affected All IndicesRecession Affected All Economic AgentsEconomy: Diversified or Not?Economy: Diversified or Not?Economy: Diversified or Not? (contd.)Economy: Diversified or Not? (contd.)FGN 2017 BudgetBasis is ERGPObjectives of 2017 BudgetBudget Assumptions / Actual (2015-2017)Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26End NotesEnd NotesEnd Notes (contd.)End Notes (contd.)Slide Number 31Addendum: Implementation Context for FGN 2017 BudgetHow’s the Economy Faring?What’s Happening to Foreign Trade?Is CBN Intervention in TX Market Sustainable?Sustainable Intervention? (contd.)Is CBN FX Management Strategy a New Normal?Cost/Price of Money: Inconsistent?Cost/Price of Money: Inconsistent? (contd.)Borrowing: What’s the Sense?Fiscal + Other Policies: Right Direction (contd.)The Capital Market: What’s in the Mirror?The Capital Market: What’s in the Mirror? (contd.)BAA Consult

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