2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Dr. Von Nessen
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Transcript of 2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Dr. Von Nessen
South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16
South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16
+2.2%
Slower Global Growth/App. Dollar
Declines in Demand for Exports
Declines in Manufacturing
(Trans. Equipment)
Declines in TransportaBon/
Trucking
Ripple Effects
China/U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16
S.C. Export Volume (TEUs)
Source: South Carolina Ports Authority
-‐15.0%
-‐10.0%
-‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Trans. & U9l Manufacturing
5.3%
2.5% 2.0% 1.9%
2015/2014 2016/2015
S.C. Employment Growth: By Industry
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16
S.C. Employment Growth: Trans. Equip. Manuf.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
2016 South Carolina Employment Growth Rate
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16
Construc9on Prof. & Bus. Services Health Care & Soc. Assist.
S.C. Employment Growth: By Industry
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
2016 South Carolina Employment Growth Rate
S.C. Avg. Employment Growth: 2015-2016
Fairfield 12.2 %
Avg. Growth: +2.2% Source: BLS, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
3.2%
1.5%
1.2% 0.5%
1.4%
1.7% 1.4%
Outlook for 2017: Employment Growth
Source: Division of Research, Moore School of Business
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417
2.9%
2.4%
3.0%
2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%
2.4% 2.5%
Historical Forecast
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0%
U.S. S.C.
Unemployment Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; SA LAUS, CES
SC: 4.4%
US: 4.7%
4.4%
-‐6.0%
-‐4.0%
-‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0% Jan-‐09
Jun-‐09
Nov-‐09
Apr-‐10
Sep-‐10
Feb-‐11
Jul-‐1
1
Dec-‐11
May-‐12
Oct-‐12
Mar-‐13
Aug-‐13
Jan-‐14
Jun-‐14
Nov-‐14
Apr-‐15
Sep-‐15
Feb-‐16
Jul-‐1
6
Source: State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings (NSA)
S.C. Average Hourly Earnings (Total: Private)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
S.C. Average Hourly Earnings (Total: Private) Region Oct. 2015 Oct. 2016 % Change
Charleston $23.01 $24.39 +6.0% Columbia $22.58 $22.41 -‐0.8% Greenville $21.09 $21.80 +3.4%
Myrtle Beach $18.86 $19.89 +5.5%
Spartanburg $20.60 $21.22 +3.0%
State Total $21.53 $22.47 +4.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA
Outlook for 2017: Total Personal Income Growth
Source: Division of Research, Moore School of Business
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417
5.2% 5.1% 5.6%
4.9% 4.9% 4.3%
3.7%
5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%
Historical Forecast
U.S. Skills Gap Misery Index
0
50
100
150
200 De
c-‐00
Sep-‐01
Jun-‐02
Mar-‐03
Dec-‐03
Sep-‐04
Jun-‐05
Mar-‐06
Dec-‐06
Sep-‐07
Jun-‐08
Mar-‐09
Dec-‐09
Sep-‐10
Jun-‐11
Mar-‐12
Dec-‐12
Sep-‐13
Jun-‐14
Mar-‐15
Dec-‐15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; SA LAUS, JOLTS
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
2007-‐2010 2011-‐2016
S.C. Unemployment Rate
The Beveridge Curve
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; SA LAUS, JOLTS
U.S. Job
Ope
nings R
ate
South Carolina Demographic Profile
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2010-2014 (Ages 25-65)
54.5% 45.5%
<Associate's Associate's or Higher
Movers LTM Non-Movers
64.8%
35.2%
<Associate's Associate's or Higher
Mover LTM Non-‐Mover Management 8.1% 7.7% Engineering 2.1% 1.5% Military 8.9% 0.4%
Office 11.6% 13.2%
ConstrucBon 4.0% 5.3% ProducBon 4.2% 8.5%
TransportaBon 5.3% 6.4%
S.C. Pct. Employed by Selected Occupations
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2010-2014
South Carolina Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Initial UI Claims, 12-week moving average
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
3/18/00
3/18/01
3/18/02
3/18/03
3/18/04
3/18/05
3/18/06
3/18/07
3/18/08
3/18/09
3/18/10
3/18/11
3/18/12
3/18/13
3/18/14
3/18/15
3/18/16
Outlook for 2017: Unemployment Rate
Source: Division of Research, Moore School of Business
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417
6.5% 6.1%
5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.1%
4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5%
Historical Forecast
Construction Emp. Growth vs. S.C. Average
Source: Bureau of Labor StaMsMcs, CES NSA
-‐6.0%
-‐4.0%
-‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jan.'11 Jan.'12 Jan.'13 Jan.'14 Jan.'15 Jan.'16
S.C. Construc9on
S.C. Regional Competitiveness by Industry Pct. Point Difference Between National Industry Growth and S.C. Industry Growth
Source: Division of Research, Moore School of Business
-‐2.0% -‐1.5% -‐1.0% -‐0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Construc9on Manufacturing Durable Goods
NonDurable Goods Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade Trans. & U9l Informa9on
Financial Ac9v. Prof.&Bus.
Health & Soc.Assist. Leisure&Hosp.
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17
Historical Forecast
Outlook for 2017: MLS Sales Activity +11.9%
+17.1% +9.1% +30.9%
+8.1%
Charleston Quintile Analysis
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Charleston Quintile Analysis
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Charleston Price Point Breakdown <$100K $100K-‐
$150K $150K-‐$200K
$200K-‐$250K
$250K-‐$300K
$300K-‐$350K
$350K-‐$400K $400K+
2013 12.3% 14.3% 18.3% 14.7% 10.9% 6.8% 4.6% 18.1%
2014 10.7% 12.8% 18.2% 14.4% 11.8% 7.8% 5.3% 18.9%
2015 7.8% 10.1% 18.2% 16.3% 11.8% 8.8% 5.5% 21.5%
2016 5.6% 8.1% 16.9% 18.4% 12.5% 9.3% 6.7% 22.3%
-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐
2016/2013 -‐6.7% -‐6.1% -‐1.3% 3.7% 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 4.2%
2016/2015 -‐2.2% -‐2.0% -‐1.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 0.9%
Charleston MLS: Median Price by Year
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016
6.0% 5.7% 6.2%
4.6%
S.C. Employment Growth: Construction
Source: Bureau of Labor StaMsMcs, Current Employment StaMsMcs, NSA
-‐25.0% -‐20.0% -‐15.0% -‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0%
10.0% 15.0%
Construc9on of Buildings Specialty Trade Contractors
FHFA House Price Index
Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency
-‐15.0%
-‐10.0%
-‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
q110
q210
q310
q410
q111
q211
q311
q411
q112
q212
q312
q412
q113
q213
q313
q413
q114
q214
q314
q414
q115
q215
q315
q415
q116
q216
q316
Charleston
Columbia
Greenville
Hilton Head
Spartanburg
FHFA House Price Index
Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency
-‐15.0%
-‐10.0%
-‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
q110
q210
q310
q410
q111
q211
q311
q411
q112
q212
q312
q412
q113
q213
q313
q413
q114
q214
q314
q414
q115
q215
q315
q415
q116
q216
q316
Charleston
Columbia
Greenville
Hilton Head
Spartanburg
S.C. Builders Reporting at Least One Sale
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Residential & Non-Residential)
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
South Carolina’s Economy on Solid Footing for 2017 November 2016 State Leading Indices
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia