2016 san diego and national economic update march 9 2016
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2016 Comprehensive Economic Update. Evan Donaldson, CEO Presented at the PMI 03/10/16
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Transcript of 2016 san diego and national economic update march 9 2016
2016 Comprehensive Economic Update.
Evan Donaldson, CEO Presented at the PMI 03/10/16
Introductions Evan Donaldson CEO for Talentry, So. Cal. Professional since 1985 • Provided professional services and consulting solutions saving companies millions of dollars
• Software, web, and mobile app development • Systems evaluation, architecture, and implementation
• Recognized as an expert on maximizing outcomes through people and process • Placed hundreds of professionals in the San Diego, Orange County, and national market • Extensive experience with training, employer branding, and designing elegant and novel solutions
• Twitter: @Evanduz – Please tweet! • LinkedIn: if you connect with me, you will have access to these presentations • I also curate a LinkedIn group: San Diego TechExec Group, where I publish and forward things of
interest
• THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ACTION TAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN
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Talentry overview ! Talentry is a Professional Services, Project Management, Training, and Staff Augmentation
company based in San Diego, CA
! Talentry’s employees are tenured solutions providers, with deep networks, and extensive client successes.
! Together we provide solutions focused on the intersection of people and technology, with a focus on IT, Scientific, and Engineering professionals.
! Call us when you: ! Need a professional to help assess your technology and recommend or architect a vendor neutral solution ! Have systems that don’t work together ! Need new highly qualified technical staff ! Feel your vendors are “squeezing” you ! Have a client deadline that you are worried about meeting ! Need to develop software ! Want to go to the cloud
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Economic Trends
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• Consumer Price Index (CPI): (measures changes in the price level
of consumer goods and services purchased by households.) + Unch in Jan 2016 -0.1% Dec 2015 (+ 0.3% minus food/energy. +0.2% Dec)
• Unemployment Rate: 4.9% in Feb (-0.2%) - +555k people in Feb
• Payroll Employment: +242,000 in Feb (Avg +250k ttm) Health care, social assistance, retail, food services. Mining (-)
• Average Hourly Earnings: +0.4% from Dec to Jan ($25.35 private Feb, up from $24.80 private Feb 2015 )
• Producer Price Index (PPI): (measures average changes in prices
received by domestic producers for their output.) +0.1% in Jan 2016. Prices for services +0.5%, goods -0.7%.
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• Employment Cost Index (ECI): (quarterly economic series detailing the changes in the
costs of labor for businesses in the United States economy) +0.6% in 4th Qtr. of 2015
• Productivity: real output / hours worked
- 2.2%% in 4th Qtr. of 2015 Output increased 1%, hours worked 3.2% • U.S. Import Price Index: Tracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the United
States . The figure is significant in relation to the trade balance, the difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive trade balance (surplus) acts as an appreciating weight on the dollar, reflecting demand for dollars in exchange for exports. Conversely, a negative value (deficit) puts
downward pressure on the dollar's value -1.1% in June 2015 – primarily fuel-driven
• U.S. Export Price Index: Tracks price changes of U.S. export goods. The figure is used to determine whether a change in the headline Export figure is representative of an increase of goods sold to
foreign nations or just an increase in the price of export goods -0.8% in June 2015 - primarily fuel-driven
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But, not so fast on the employment celebration:
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How about this one?
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Retail Sales: U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in Dec (and up 3.4% over the previous Dec.) Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores up 9.1%. FOMC: The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic conditions to determine whether expansionary or contractionary monetary policy is needed. It issues forecasts at four of those meetings. January’s meeting: inflation is under the 2 percent objective, reflecting declines in energy prices and non-energy imports. Decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at ¼ - ½ percent.
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The six classifications of unemployment that the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks are: • U1 is Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. • U2 is Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. • U3 is Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization
definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.
• U4 is U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
• U5 is U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or “loosely attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
• U6 is U5 + Part time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons, i.e. the economy is bad so their employer cut their hours and they can’t find other work.
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But production is very high:
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The Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is an economic indicator that measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities
And the market is highly valued:
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Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap Index
But not every market:
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Housing prices have rebounded more than most people think:
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And household debt to income ration has come way down (in the US:)
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Broken out for mortgage (purple) vs consumer (gold):
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And, what about OIL?
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VISTAGE CEO Confidence
Index
Q4 2015
SAN DIEGO (Dec. 15, 2015) — Good news for job seekers – small and mid-sized business owners are planning on increasing their workforce in 2016, according the Vistage CEO Confidence Index Survey, the largest survey of chief executives from small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. Among all firms surveyed, more than half (55 percent) planned to increase their workforce in 2016. Few firms reported that they planned cutbacks in their total employment, just 8 percent in the most recent survey.
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San Diego Trends
USD’s Burnham-Moores Center until Jan 2016
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February 29, 2016 -- The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in January. The advancing and declining components were even at three apiece, and each side featured one very large increase along with two smaller ones. On the upside, help wanted advertising was the big mover, with smaller gains in building permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance. On the downside, the biggest decliner was local stock prices, with smaller losses in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. The unchanged result in January broke a string of three consecutive increases for the Index.
San Diego Trends
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Because of January’s unchanged reading in the USD Index, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged from what was previously reported: Positive growth in the local economy for 2016, although somewhat slower than in 2015. Boosting the economy will be low gas prices and relatively low interest rates. Also, the strong job growth in 2015 (more than 40,000 wage and salary jobs added) will provide some momentum, as more employment means more income, which leads to more spending, which in turn leads to even more employment. On the downside is turmoil and weakness in the global economy. Of particular concern is China, which has to deal with an implosion in its stock market, a potential real estate bubble, weakness in its financial sector, and a restructuring of its economy away from export-fueled growth to a more consumer and consumption oriented economy.
San Diego Trends
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance have now declined for three months in a row, which is a positive for the Index. Help wanted advertising has matched that and is now at its highest level since November 2007. Consumer confidence dropped for the third month in a row, although none of the drops was large. Turmoil in the stock market would be one of the contributors to the decline. . . Local stock prices followed the broader market averages and plummeted in January.
San Diego Trends
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Q&A, further discussion.
Contact information: • Evan Donaldson • [email protected] • 619-227-5858 • @Evanduz
Talentry, LLC., an organization that supplies consulting, training, headhunting, workforce optimization analysis, staff augmentation, and project management for companies dedicated to maximizing their effectiveness by enhancing their biggest asset - their people. www.talentry.net
Brief communication supplement:
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Communication
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Evan’s thoughts: 1. WHAT PROBLEM ARE WE TRYING TO SOLVE? 2. People don’t prepare by asking what they want out of the
communication beforehand. 3. People definitely don’t prepare by asking what the other person
wants (or is likely to want) 4. What is the minimum acceptable result from the communication? 5. What problems/challenges/issues might come up? 6. How will I deal with each problem and demonstrate the BENEFIT
from each one? 7. How will I close? This is called OUTCOME-BASED THINKING
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Evan’s thoughts Cont’d:
8. KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE 9. Timing can be everything! 10. Have a BHAG and a Minimum Acceptable Outcome established
ahead of time 11. Use “AND” not “BUT.” 12. Use the above to stay focused on the problem and the desired
outcome. 13. Avoid emotional entanglements 14. Use responses like “I see,” “Is that so?” “What makes you think/feel
that way?” “How did you arrive at that?” And, the big gun, the “five why’s” (The golden key to root cause analysis… Nail"shoe"horse"rider"battle"kingdom.)
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It is important to remember that it should be “us against the problem.” ASK: “What problem are we trying to solve?” CONSTANTLY go back to this, especially in potentially volatile interactions.
5 Secrets of Effective Communication Skills – Benjamin Langley 1. Feel the feelings you want to convey 2. Match the energy/intensity/emotion of the audience 3. Use as many mediums of communication as possible 4. Let go of resistance 5. Allow people to do it themselves
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Each action should identify: 1. Who is accountable 2. Who is responsible 3. What needs to be done 4. How we will know it is done /
deliverable 5. When it needs to be done
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# S.M.A.R.T. Goals yield smart
outcomes! This is true in
communication as well!
# Specific
# Measurable
# Attainable
# Realistic
# Timed
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An Aside on Email Etiquette! 1. Write for the person reading, don’t reply all (unless approp.) 2. CHANGE and put a CLEAR subject line 3. Don’t overuse high priority! 4. Use “No reply needed” “Jim, for your information. Jen,
please reply” 5. Be brief and clear. Or else call, or stop by… 6. State why the action will benefit the recipient. 7. A quick personalization or friendly comment can soften the
tone. 8. Use English, ditch stationary, avoid fonts/pictures (in
general)
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An Aside on Email Etiquette! 9. Minimize questions – but ask at least one if you need
information. Yes/No works WELL in emails 10. Specific calls to action work well. 11. Follow up on mistaken/incomplete emails – the “oops” helps!
12. CHANGE THE SUBJECT LINE (AGAIN!) don’t reply to off-topic emails.
Q&A, further discussion.
Contact information: • Evan Donaldson • [email protected] • 619-227-5858 • @Evanduz
Talentry, LLC., an organization that supplies consulting, training, headhunting, workforce optimization analysis, staff augmentation, and project management for companies dedicated to maximizing their effectiveness by enhancing their biggest asset - their people. www.talentry.net
