2016 c R{ m4HP@9 S Q L95Äy |ä¾» the SOARCA analyses and the progression of events at Fukushima....

3
nsz NDM3PRA Úµ¥uU:;7JPL95ÖÇoU cR{ þ L95ÖÇoU[ 1 QVns{U2016SÍSU cR{m4HP@9 2016S3`26-28Q L95Äy|ä¾» ºY]ÔR¸ÑÁíÅÁXõf! ËÐ.') p¸µ+R]Ô!g¼ßw ]Z^_lzW$&), nsdÝÙ_v¾ë³.k+ 7A//57=P>õfmõfËÐE?8GP >¬s.RW+às),+ L95Äy^7A//57=P>ËÐצ $YìL95Äy¬s.ø +·+ T]Ô¨ü.¸ªç|ä¾»Þ ,+.±£Æt+·+ _v¾ë³.(*wÌlÌ®l' ¾ë¬s.e&+·+ 2 L95 3 L95 Unknown Unknowns Unknown knowns L95Äy+ãz}±ð L95âÂl+-)+ 2009, N.N.Taleb 4

Transcript of 2016 c R{ m4HP@9 S Q L95Äy |ä¾» the SOARCA analyses and the progression of events at Fukushima....

�ns�z���NDM3PRA��������

Úµ¥uU:;7JP��L95ÖÇoU�

c�R{ q¯ þ�L95ÖÇoU[�

1

QV�ns{U2016S�SUc�R{�m4HP@9

2016S3`26-28Q L95Äy�|ä¾»• º��Y]Ô�R¸Ñ�Áí��Å�ÁX�õf�!�ËÐ.'�)��

• p¸��µ��+�R]Ô!�g¼�ßw��• ]Z^�_�l�z�W���$��&),�• �nsd��ÝÙ_�v�¾ë�³.�k�+

• 7A//57=P>�õfm�õf�ËÐE?8GP>¬s.R ��W��+às���),��+

• L95Äy^��7A//57=P>�ËÐצ���$�Yì�L95Äy¬s.ø �+·���+

• T��]Ô�¨ü.¸��ªç��|ä�¾»�Þ­���,+��.±£�Æt�+·���+

• _�v��¾ë�³.(*wÌl�Ì®l�'����¾ë¬s.e&+·���+ 2

L95��

3

L95UnknownUnknowns�������

Unknownknowns�������

L95Äy��+ãz��}±�����ð���L95�â��Âl��+�-�)������+

��������2009, N.N.Taleb

4

_�l�z��W

5

hj

�z�

ó©ñ������)��

State-of-the-ArtReactorConsequenceAnalyses(SOARCA)• 7A//57=P>�«aû�3B61>ËÐ�BEצ�

• 7A//57=P>�¤ÓvØ.Àö

• 7A//57=P>h��wl���(����¿ +��

• 25Sj�ÈÎ.¶R����p�CKP>79<F¡û.\��]Z^�w²�����CKP>��z���W��Û��NRC�Üi�¡û�ªç�,������'�.§÷�+

• 79<F��Û�üè�ê½bæ�3B61>ê½g¹

• �p�:4IL<0rx]Ã�(+�Û

6http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/regulatory/research/soar.html

ÁX¾´

ý¢Õô

ÁXò�

�oÁX

ê½hg¹

ÒïËÐ

Áí��ÅÁX#��hj�ÁXÉState-of-the-ArtReactorConsequenceAnalyses(SOARCA)Report,NUREG-1935,2012

7

NRC�NDM3PRACO825>

9

#�&•]Ô��Ï��Ê�����'�]Ô�ËÐ��Ê�úî�áùhj�°é~¬��å�

• Asinformationaboutthedamagetoplantsafetyfunctionswasgatheredovertheweeksandmonthsfollowingtheseevents,manysimilaritiesbecameapparentbetween thecalculateddamageprogressionintheboiling-waterreactor(BWR)SBOaccidentscenariosintheSOARCAanalysesandtheprogressionofeventsatFukushima.

• State-of-the-Art ReactorConsequenceAnalyses(SOARCA)Report,NUREG-1935,2012

• ó©ñ��)��(�QuestioningAttitude(QA)�·���+• QA��, �NDM3PRA��*�%"����

10