2016 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey2016 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey

Changes in perspective on USA real estate marketsg p p

100%

70%

80%

90%

Votes

40%

50%

60%

of M

embe

rs' V

20%

30%

40%

Percen

t o

‐

10%

More Pessimistic About the Same More Optimistic

2014 20152014 2015

Likelihood of events that pose the greatest risk of t i i d ttriggering a downturn

Property types most affected byi i i t t tan increase in interest rates

4.0

3.0

3.5

2.0

2.5

an Score

1.0

1.5

Mea

0.0

0.5

The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.

Office Retail Multifamily Hotel Warehouse

Expected changes in cap rates by year‐end 2016p g p y y

Percent of Members' Votes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Office

Retail

M lti F ilMulti‐Family

Warehouse

Hotel

Much Lower Slightly Lower No Change Slightly Higher Much HigherMuch Lower Slightly Lower No Change Slightly Higher Much Higher

Country providing the most stable and securel t t i t treal estate investments

70%

50%

60%

Votes

30%

40%

of M

embe

rs' V

10%

20%

Percen

t o

0%USA Germany UK Canada Australia Netherlands

2011 2012 2013 2014 20152011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Country providing the best opportunity f it l i tifor capital appreciation

60%

50%

Votes

30%

40%

of M

embe

rs' V

10%

20%

Percen

t o

0%USA Brazil Spain Ireland UK Netherlands China India

2011 2012 2013 2014 20152011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ranking of global cities for real estate investmentg g

30%

20%

25%

l Score

10%

15%

ercent of Total

‐

5%

Pe

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ranking of USA cities for real estate investmentg

40%

25%

30%

35%

l Score

15%

20%

erecnt of Total

0%

5%

10%Pe

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point to third choice.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ranking of USA property types, by yearg p p y yp , y y

4.50

3 00

3.50

4.00

2.00

2.50

3.00

Mea

n Score

1.00

1.50

M

0.00

0.50

20152014201320122011

Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial

The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.

Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial

Ranking of USA property types, by property typeg p p y yp , y p p y yp

4.5

3 0

3.5

4.0

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mea

n Score

1.0

1.5

M

0.0

0.5

Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

The responses were scored with 5 points to each respondent’s first choice, 4 points to second choice, and so on down to 1 point to the fifth choice.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mean real estate portfolio sizesp

$25

$20

$15

$ Billion

s

19.1

$

$10US$

7.8

$0

$5

Global USA

Real estate portfolio geographic distributionp g g p

Percent of Members' Portfolios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

USA

Europe

C dCanada

Asia Pacific

Latin America

>75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation>75% Allocation 25% ‐ 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation

Planned changes to the size of portfoliosg p

Percent of Members' Votes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

USA

Europe

Canada

Asia Pacific

Latin America

MajorNet Increase

ModestIncrease

Maintain orRein est

ModestDecrease

Major NetDecreaseNet Increase Increase Reinvest Decrease Decrease

Allocation of portfolios by investment strategy or stylep y gy y

Percent of Members' Portfolios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Core

V l AddValue Add

Opportunistic

>75% Allocation 25% 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation>75% Allocation 25% ‐ 75% Allocation <25% Allocation No Allocation

Planned changes to investment strategy or styleg gy y

Percent of Members' Votes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Core

Value Add

OpportunisticOpportunistic

MajorNet Increase

ModestIncrease

Maintain orRein est

ModestDecrease

Major NetDecreaseNet Increase Increase Reinvest Decrease Decrease

Ranking of countries for real estate acquisitions:2015 ti d 2016 l2015 executions and 2016 plans

Percent of Total Score0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

USA

UK

Germany

C dCanada

France

AustraliaAustralia

China

2015 Acqusitions 2016 Plans

The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point for the third choice.

2015 Acqusitions 2016 Plans

Ranking of emerging countries considered f l t t i itifor real estate acquisitions 

Percent of Total Vote0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Brazil

China

Chile

Mexico

India

Peru

Colombia

Malaysia

2014 Plans (from 2013 s r e )

2015 Plans (from 2014 s r e )

2016 Plans (from c rrent s r e )

Each member was allowed to mention up to 6 countries. All mentions are counted equally to add up to the score of the country.

(from 2013 survey) (from 2014 survey) (from current survey)