2016 ACES energy conference
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Transcript of 2016 ACES energy conference
2016 Political Economy
Impact On Energy
A Local Story
“This move is intended to address the challenges we continue to face in a rapidly changing HVAC industry,
with the continued migration of the HVAC industry to Mexico, including our suppliers
and competitors, and ongoing cost and pricing pressures driven, in part, by new regulatory
requirements”
Main Topics Today
US & Intl Economic Situation
2016 Presidential Race
Future Growth
What the Fed watches
Q2 2016 GDP Estimate
3yr Oil and Nat Gas
US Dollar Index
US 2yr Treasury Yield
German 2yr BKO Yield
Japan 2yr JGB Yield
Chinese Stock Market
How To Grow
Big Problem
Political Econ Growth Pts.
Free Trade=lower tariffs
Reg. Relief=reduced costs
Tax reform=capital formation w/incentives
Infrastructure=efficiency
Trump PlanCut Corp Tax to 15%
Limit Pass Thru 15%
1x 10% Repat Tax
Ag TPP and NAFTAImpose tariffs on imported goods
Big Drop in InterestDeductibility
100 Day Energy Plan
Save coal industry
Pass Keystone
Rescind Obama executive actions: Climate Action Plan
and the Waters of the U.S. rule
Lift moratorium on energy on federal lands
Cancel Paris Climate Agreement
Trump plans help/hurt
Help: big tech & big pharma
Hurt: debt heavy balance sheets
Help: industrials & manufacturers
Hurt: free trade
Help: energy production
CLINTON PLANNo Change 4 Corp or Pass Thru Taxes
New Tax Credits forProfit Sharing andApprenticeships
Restart BABs
No Free Trade
College Tuition Plan
Big Change to Cap Gains
Tax Foundation
Clinton’s new spending
$275B Infrastructure Plan
Fix Roads and Bridges
National Freight Inv. Program
$25B Infrastructure Bank
Energy Plan
500mln solar panels by 2021
Implement Clean Power Plan
Clean energy challenge
Implement Paris agreements
Clinton plans help/hurt
Help: ACA managed care, hospitals, Medicaid HMOs
Hurt: raises taxes on top earners/capital formation
Help: construction, enginering firms
Help: muni bonds
Hurt: energy production
2016 Recap
Clinton: no big biz tax plans, large infrastructure plans,
build on current regulations,negative free trade,
renewable energy production,
Trump: tax cut plans,reduce regulations, full expensing,
hurt free trade, big energy
Don’t Forget The Senate!
1st Time Ever: Trump is ahead
The 10yr Debt Time Bomb
LT Growth Trend
Your future challenge is now
Your Tornado?
Your Hero?
Tiny, But Growing
Energy Storage
Source: GTM Research Energy Storage Monitor 2014
Future Hero?
Final Thoughts…