2016-17 Budget Projection Scenarios - Boarddocsfile/Budget Scenario...2016-17 Budget Projection...
Transcript of 2016-17 Budget Projection Scenarios - Boarddocsfile/Budget Scenario...2016-17 Budget Projection...
2016-17 Budget Projection Scenarios
Dr. Christina M. Kishimoto
Superintendent
Tom Wohlleber
Chief Financial Officer
January 12, 2016
1
What is the purpose of a budget projection model?
• To provide a framework for budget development
• To identify the factors or variables that will impact the budget
• To clarify the planning assumptions to be utilized in
developing the budget
Why are multiple budget projection scenarios being presented?
• To illustrate the range of impact that the most critical variables
will have in developing the 2016-17 budget
2
What are the critical factors that will impact the level of financial
resources available for the 2016-17 budget?
1) Enrollment (Average Daily Membership or ADM)
• Change to current year enrollment (ADM) for determining
the District’s budget limit
• Each student (unweighted ADM) generates approximately
$5,200 in budget capacity (Revenue Control Limit) in the
current school year
• GPS 2016-17 enrollment
2) Inflation Lawsuit Settlement
3) Base Level Inflation Factor 3
UE = Ungraded Elementary SOURCE: ADMS 46-1 Reports4
Grade / YearFY11
100th Day
FY12
100th Day
FY13
100th Day
FY14
100th Day
FY15
100th Day
FY15
40th Day
FY16
40th DayPre-School 233 231 227 240 245 218 176
KG (including UE) 1,231 1,305 1,173 1,202 1,187 1,153 1,049
Grade 1 2,587 2,526 2,594 2,485 2,427 2,415 2,102
Grade 2 2,655 2,598 2,569 2,589 2,504 2,504 2,365
Grade 3 2,719 2,726 2,596 2,624 2,586 2,580 2,449
Grade 4 2,835 2,737 2,761 2,623 2,599 2,600 2,502
Grade 5 2,855 2,871 2,763 2,710 2,565 2,566 2,505
Grade 6 2,899 2,875 2,851 2,770 2,705 2,708 2,561
Grade 7 3,247 3,181 3,212 3,127 3,038 3,049 2,876
Grade 8 3,252 3,241 3,258 3,258 3,156 3,169 3,027
Grade 9 3,200 3,170 3,182 3,186 3,177 3,186 3,080
Grade 10 3,084 3,131 3,117 3,174 3,171 3,180 3,162
Grade 11 2,942 2,910 3,008 2,998 3,034 3,077 3,094
Grade 12 2,830 2,838 2,890 3,040 2,962 2,998 3,086
Total 36,571 36,341 36,203 36,028 35,357 35,403 34,035
Change (230) (138) (174) (671) (1322)
% Change -0.63% -0.38% -0.48% -1.86% -3.74%
Scenario A assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 1,350
Scenario B assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 2,000
Both Scenario A and Scenario B assume:
• Inflation Lawsuit Settlement election is NOT approved
• FY16 Base Level inflation increase of $54.99 remains intact
(Base Level with teacher comp of $3,524.56)
• FY17 Base Level inflation increase of 1.15%
• Teacher Experience Index factor of 1.0207
• Transfer to Capital Fund of $300,000
• Budget Balance Carry forward of $3,500,0005
Scenario C assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 1,350
Scenario D assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 2,000
Both Scenario C and Scenario D assume:
• Inflation Lawsuit Settlement election IS approved
• FY16 Base Level with teacher comp is adjusted to $3,645
• FY17 Base Level inflation increase of 1.15%
(Base Level with teacher comp of $3,686.92)
• Teacher Experience Index factor of 1.0207
• Transfer to Capital Fund of $300,000
• Budget Balance Carry forward of $3,500,0006
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Without Inflation Lawsuit Settlement With Inflation Lawsuit Settlement*
FY 17 Scenario A FY 17 Scenario B FY 17 Scenario C* FY 17 Scenario D*
FY 16 Budget 1350 ADM Decrease 2000 ADM Decrease 1350 ADM Decrease 2000 ADM Decrease
Revenue Control Limit (RCL) $183,474,217 $178,460,000 $175,520,000 $184,250,000 $181,210,000
Transfer to Capital Fund (2,101,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000)
Override (10% of RCL) 0 17,846,000 17,552,000 18,425,000 18,121,000
Transfer from Capital Fund 2,681,893 0 0 0 0
Tuition Revenue 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000
Budget Balance Carryforward 5,270,412 3,500,000 3,500,000 3,500,000 3,500,000
M&O General Budget Limit $189,365,522 $199,546,000 $196,312,000 $205,915,000 $202,571,000
Increase from FY 16 $10,180,478 $6,946,478 $16,549,478 $13,205,478
*Scenarios C & D do NOT inlcude the GPS portion of the additional $50 million installment from the inflation lawsuit settlement.
What is the projected budget increase resulting from approval of the
M&O override?
• The estimated increase in budget capacity for 2016-17 in the projection
scenarios ranges from $17.5 to $18.4 million.
Why is the projected budget increase from the M&O override different
than the amount estimated during the election?
• The estimated increase in budget capacity for 2016-17 from the M&O
override presented during the election was $18.6 million.
• Actual budget capacity is the result of a larger than expected decrease
(approximately double) in student enrollment. 8
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Priority 1: Offer Competitive Wages Estimated Amount
Staff Compensation Proposal Cost $10,000,000
Unpaid Professional Development Advancement $850,000
Priority 3: Quality Academic Programming Estimated Amount
Instructional Improvement $1,500,000+
Priority 2: Maintain/Reduce Class Size Estimated Amount
Maintain Class Size Limits for 2016-17 N/A
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Priority 4: Affordable Student Access Estimated Amount
Student Fee Reductions/Adjustments TBD
Priority 5: College & Career Readiness Programming Estimated Amount
Program Expansion $500,000+
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Priority Description Estimated Amount
Capital Funding Allocation (from M&O) $300,000+
District Contribution to Insurance Trust Fund $2,000,000+