AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT March 15, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The U.S. military conducted airstrikes against an al Shabaab training camp and supported a raid targeting a senior al Shabaab official. The Pentagon described an “imminent” threat against U.S. and partnered forces in Somalia.

2. AQIM gunmen stormed three resort hotels in Grand Bassam, Ivory Coast, continuing the group’s campaign against the Western presence in the region.

3. Coalition-backed forces broke the siege of Taiz, a central Yemeni city, which is key terrain for both sides in the war.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda’s African affiliates, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al Shabaab, are resurgent after intensive military operations against them. AQIM has increasingly extended its attack zone to now include the Ivory Coast, showing a range from the Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf of Guinea. Al Shabaab adapted to the peacekeeping force presence on the ground and developed a campaign series that exploited isolated bases. Al Shabaab is also developing the capability to move bombs onto planes through Somali airports, targeting Turkish interests because of Turkey’s support for the Somali Federal Government. It is likely al Qaeda affiliates have calculated their attacks based on the projected U.S. response and are operating below a level that will attract or elicit a strong U.S. military intervention.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and local resilience.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Pakistani police forces increased operations in urban areas, targeting al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) militants. Pakistani police killed two suspected AQIS militants in Karachi, on March 13, 2016. The identities of the militants are not currently known.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces will sustain increased ground and air operations in the FATA, as it enters the final phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Separately, the Pakistani security forces will look towards increased operations in urban areas, in an effort to rid the cities of extremism.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalAl Houthi and Saudi powerbrokers remain invested in direct talks, which appear to be continuing despite apparent violations of the unofficial ceasefire by both sides. Al Houthi officials and Saleh loyalists cast the Saudis’ acceptance of direct negotiations as a victory, while the Saudis are framing it as driven by humanitarian concerns. The UN Special Envoy to Yemen seeks to capitalize on the current momentum to initiate a new round of UN-brokered talks.

Outlook: Direct talks may de-escalate tensions along the Saudi-Yemeni border, but are unlikely to translate into a broader de-escalation without a decisive victory on the ground.

SecurityCoalition-backed forces broke a months-long al Houthi-Saleh siege on the central city of Taiz, seizing positions on the western front and opening the road for humanitarian deliveries. Fighting continues in central and eastern Taiz city and along frontlines in northern Yemen. Security forces loyal to President Hadi and local militias cleared Islamist militants from Aden’s al Mansoura district with coalition air support. Armed militia factions continue to challenge Hadi’s government in Aden.

Outlook: Coalition-backed forces will continue to pressure the frontlines in Taiz, Ma’rib and al Jawf.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP extended its zone of control east along the Yemeni coastline by seizing control of al Raydah on March 13. It maintains control of areas in Shabwah and Abyan and it is unlikely that limited coalition airstrikes against AQAP positions will significantly degrade AQAP’s capabilities on the ground. AQAP continues to coordinate with local anti-al Houthi-Saleh militias in Taiz and al Bayda. Coalition-backed forces reportedly thwarted an attack by AQAP’s insurgent arm, Ansar al Sharia, on al Anad airbase in Lahij governorate, shortly after clearing operations targeted militants in Aden.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to strengthen its relations with local populations by exploiting governance vacuums.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 11 MAR: Pro-Hadi and popular resistance forces broke the siege on western Taiz city.2) 12 MAR: Coalition-backed forces cleared Islamist militants in al Mansoura, Aden.3) 13 MAR: AQAP seized al Raydah, Hadramawt.4) 12 MAR: An al Houthi-Saudi unit began clearing mines along the border.5) 09 MAR: Al Houthi-Saleh forces launched rockets into Saudi Arabia.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalOfficials from AMISOM and troop-contributing countries are planning to implement new strategies against al Shabaab. Requested strategic changes include increased cooperation between AMISOM contingents and Somali security forces, especially improved command-and-control capabilities.

Outlook: AMISOM will continue efforts to adjust to al Shabaab’s growing capabilities.

SecuritySomali special operations forces supported by U.S. advisers and helicopters carried out a raid on an al Shabaab camp in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle region on March 8. Al Shabaab confirmed the attack, claiming that its fighters repulsed the Somali troops. U.S. participation in this raid and the March 6 strike on the al Shabaab Raso training camp mark a significant inflection in U.S. military involvement in Somalia, reflected by the Pentagon’s characterization of an “imminent” threat to U.S. troops and partnered forces in Somalia.

Outlook: Further U.S. military investment in Somalia is unlikely beyond a narrow counter-terrorism scope.

Al ShabaabAn estimated 150 to 200 al Shabaab militants temporarily seized control of the coastal town of Gara’ad in Mudug region after arriving by boat. The group left Gara’ad by foot as Puntland security forces advanced and entered Kulub, about 10 km north. An al Shabaab preacher spoke in Garmaal, near Eyl on the Puntland coast. A pro-ISIS cell that defected from al Shabaab is believed to be near Hul-Canood, north of Eyl, though it is unclear how the al Shabaab push along Somalia’s northeastern coast is linked to the cell, if at all. Separately, al Shabaab executed an alleged spy in Hiraan region after the U.S. strikes, demonstrating al Shabaab’s continued control over populated centers.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will probably continue to demonstrate its control in areas outside of AMISOM or SNA operations.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 08 MAR: U.S. and Somali SOF raided an al Shabaab camp in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle region. 2) 14 MAR: Al Shabaab militants conducted a sea-borne raid on Gara’ad, Mudug region. 3) 10 MAR: New KDF troops reinforced several FOBs in the Lower Jubba region.4) 11 MAR: Kenyan security forces arrested a senior al Shabaab member in Dadaab, Garissa County.

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe international community is pushing for the implementation of the Government of National Accord (GNA). The U.S. Department of State and other Western foreign ministries called for Libyan public and financial institutions to transfer authority to the GNA immediately, and the EU is threatening sanctions against Libyan political leaders who obstruct the GNA.

Outlook: International pressure and financial incentives may force hardliners to acquiesce to the GNA, but it will remain fragile due to its lack of popular support and backing from armed powerbrokers on the ground.

SecurityLNA forces have cleared Islamist militants, including ISIS, Ansar al Sharia, and affiliated groups, from the majority of Benghazi. However, the fight is now protracting and pockets of resistance remain in al Sabri and al Hawari districts, as well as on the city’s western periphery. Militants are conducting IED attacks in LNA-held areas to disrupt efforts to secure the city.

Outlook: LNA forces will continue to target the remaining Islamist militant strongholds in Benghazi. However, the LNA will struggle to control and retain the city because of entrenched Salafi-jihadi networks that will facilitate retaliatory attacks.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS is working to increase its zone of control in Libya. The group may be relaunching its campaign on Libya’s oil infrastructure, evidenced by a complex attack on the Sarir power plant and the group’s first reported attack on Ras Lanuf and al Sidra since late January. ISIS Wilayat Fezzan (southwestern Libya) claimed its second attack as part of an apparent effort to secure a ground line of communication (GLOC) between ISIS’s Sirte base and cells in western Libya. ISIS Wilayat Tarablus attacked the Misratan frontline at Abugrein in response to airstrikes on Sirte. ISIS in Libya’s new emir, Abdul Qadr al Najdi, confirmed the close relationship between ISIS’s core leadership and its Libyan affiliate and praised the substantial foreign fighter flow to Libya.

Outlook: Libyan ISIS affiliates will continue to collaborate to secure GLOCs in western Libya and contest control of oil sites.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 09 MARCH: Libya Dawn aircraft struck ISIS positions in Sirte.2) 09 MARCH: ISIS Wilayat Tarablus militants attacked a Misratan position in Abugrein.3) 09-12 MARCH: LNA-allied militias clashed with ISIS Wilayat Fezzan near Mizdah.4) 14 MARCH: Suspected ISIS militants attacked Sarir power plant.5) 08-14 MARCH: LNA troops continued clearing operations in Benghazi.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM AQIM continued its southward expansion with an attack on resort hotels in Grand Bassam, Ivory Coast as part of its campaign to discourage Western involvement in the Sahel. Meanwhile, Algerian security forces are currently combatting the growing threat from ISIS’s support zone in Libya. Algerian border patrol discovered a cross-border tunnel near Ghadames, Libya and killed three suspected ISIS militants in possession of Stinger MANPADs in el Oued, eastern Algeria. Tunisian security forces recovered Stinger MANPADs following the March 7 ISIS attack in Ben Guerdane, indicating a possible ISIS network.

Outlook: AQIM and ISIS and their affiliates will continue attacking and recruiting in the Sahel and Maghreb, respectively.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Uqba Ibn Nafa’a stayed silent as Tunisian forces conducted clearing operations following last week’s ISIS attack in Ben Guerdane. The attack, primarily conducted by Tunisians from within Ben Guerdane as well as ISIS’s support zone in Sabratha, Libya, indicates an organized ISIS presence in Tunisia. Additionally, pro-ISIS al Thabaat Media Foundation released messages urging Tunisian Muslims to take up jihad against the government, highlighting ISIS’s efforts to destabilize North African states.

Outlook: ISIS will use Libya as a support zone to infiltrate and destabilize Tunisia.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM continued its campaign targeting hotels frequented by Westerners in the Sahel. The Grand Bassam attack was AQIM’s fourth hotel attack since August. AQIM announced that the attack was in retaliation for the Ivory Coast’s support for French operations and threatened all countries who do not withdraw support from France’s counterterrorism mission in Mali.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue to launch spectacular attacks on soft targets in an effort to inflict costs for Western presence in the region and to dissuade regional partners from further collaboration with Western forces.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

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1) 08-14 MAR: Tunisian security forces conducted clearing operations in Ben Guerdane.2) 10 MAR: Algerian security forces discovered a cross-border tunnel near Ghadames, Libya.3) 10 MAR: Algerian forces killed senior AQIM militant Kamel Arabiya, who may also have been linked to ISIS, in Guemar.4) 13 MAR: Algerian forces killed Abu al Moundhir, an Armed Islamic Group leader who joined ISIS in 2015, in Tipaza.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 08 MAR: Ansar al Din launched rockets at French troops near Kidal.2) 11 MAR: Militants attacked a Malian army checkpoint in Sevare, Mopti region. 3) 12 MAR: A Chadian UN peacekeeper shot and killed three other peacekeepers at a UN camp in Tessalit, Kidal region.4) 13 MAR: AQIM militants attacked three resort hotels in Grand Bassam, Ivory Coast.

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ACRONYMSAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569