2016 02 Sentix Economic Index Results

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7. Februar 2016 Please mind the disclaimer at the end of the document! © 2016 sentix GmbH 1

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sentix Economic ndexthFebruar" 2016

Registration for the press distribution list and further information at www.sentix.co.uk

sentix Economic Index: Global economy on the brink

• #he sentix economic index for the euro area falls a$ain in Februar"

2016. #he o%erall index lost &.6 'oints to (6.0 'oints.

•

#he %alues for the current assessment as )ell as the ex'ectation

%alues are under 'ressure. #he former locomoti%e German" cools

noticeabl".

• *hile the %alues for +sia ex ,a'an )ere some)hat o%erstated last

month and it comes here a sli$ht reco%er"- all other $lobal re$ions remain in a ne$ati%e fair)a". #he $lobal econom"

is thus currentl" on the brin- led b" a / economic do)nturn!

Current economic regimes* of countries regions in focus:

Region country Regime Region country Regime

Euro!one u'turn "#$ do)nturn

Germany coolin$ %apan sli$ht do)nturn

#wit!erland sta$nation $sia ex %apan sli$ht do)nturn

$ustria sta$nation &atin $merica recession

Eastern Europe do)nturn Global $ggregate sli$ht do)nturn

#he re$imes ran$in$ from recession to boom are deri%ed from the sentix Economic ndices accordin$ to the 'rinci'le of the 3econom" cloc4 5see annotation on

'enultimate 'a$e. #he" reflect in%estors 'erce'tions of different economies. #hese 'erce'tions are the basis for in%estors beha%iour- i.e. their asset allocation- and are

thus rele%ant for financial marets. #he" are historicall" close to actual economic acti%ities but need not necessaril" be identical.

Results for the Euro!one economy: 'ebruary ()+

sentix Gmb,

*iesenh8ttenstra9e 17- 60&2: Franfurt am ;ain

#el. (<: 56: &<7 :61=0- info>sentix.de

-anfred ,uebner;ana$in$ ?irector

manfred.huebner>sentix.de

#tatistics

Poll runnin$@ ).)(./)+.)(.()+

ur%e" 'artici'ants@ .) in0estors5of )hich institutional in%estors@ (12

&owest since$pril 2




Press release


Commentary on the sur0ey results for 'ebruary ()+

Global economy on the brink

3ho thought the collapse of sentix/economic indices in %anuary were a one/time e0ent will be disappointed with

the 'ebruary data. $lthough the 0alues for $sia ex %apan reco0er something4 this month results do not shape a

fundamentally new image. In particular4 the loss of momentum in Germany and the "nited #tates weighs hea0ily

and stresses that the global economy is now in a 0ery fragile state.

Euro!one 5 6ot immune

#he euro Aone 'ro%es- is it an" )onder there- as not immune to the enormous loss of momentum in the $lobal econ=

om". #he sentix economic sentiment indicator for the euro Aone loses a$ain &.6 'oints and is thus at onl" (6 'oints.#he current assessment index falls for the third time in a ro) to its lo)est le%el since +'ril 201B. #he ex'ectation

index $ot hit e%en harder. *ith (1.B 'oints the index is at the lo)est le%el since Co%ember 201<.

*hat is alread" a''arent in the )eel" sentix sur%e"s- is no) confirmed in the economic index too@ #he )ord" 'ro=

testations of central bans- to affect the econom" )ith 'lanned further rate actions 5ED or )ith concrete im'le=

mentation decisions 5an of ,a'an 'ositi%el"- currentl" fade amon$ in%estors. ather- t)o other factors currentl"

dominate the scener" ne$ati%el".

Firstl"- the interest rate increase b" the Fed in ?ecember 201B- )hich is no) considered b" the maorit" of in%estors

a bi$ mistae. econdl"- the situation in commodit" marets and Emer$in$ ;arets burdened 'ros'ects of the in%es=

tors. #he common denominator of these ne$ati%e factors is the stron$ / dollar. ?o )e need a ne) 'laAa accord

for a trend chan$eI

sentix Economic Index4 Euro area: current situation 7blue8 and expectations 7red8

From the 'ers'ecti%e of the in%estors inter%ie)ed b" sentix- a continuation of the monetar" and exchan$e rate 'olicies

of the 'ast t)o "ears seems in an" case not the a''ro'riate measure to brea the current- ne$ati%e d"namics of the

$lobal econom".

9Euro irre/0ersible

9;E



7. Februar 2016 Please mind the disclaimer at the end of the document! © 2016 sentix GmbH &

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"#$ 5 <ownturn is becoming more tangible

#he rate hie b" the Fed could not be 'laced )orse from the 'ers'ecti%e of in%estors. ecause the in%estors had

alread" in ?ecember the 'erce'tion that the / econom" is liel" to ha%e 'eaed. #he loss of momentum in the lastt)o months is still breathtain$. #he current situation %alues ha%e hal%ed )ithin t)o months and the ex'ectation

%alues are no) at =. 'oints clearl" ne$ati%e.

#he / econom" is on the %er$e of a do)nturn. +nd the Fed 'robabl" )ill not react as the" ha%e to- because it )ould

reJuire to admit a si$nificant miscalculation.

Globale =enden! 5 >n the brink

#he $ood ne)s first@ #he sentix economic %alues for the +sian re$ion- )hich is dominated b" Dhina- ha%e not fallen

further in Februar". ut the moderate increase of =7.6 to =<.& 'oints is merel" a technical correction. #he in%estors

had o%er=reacted in ,anuar" due to the shar' deterioration of the en%ironment.

ut the bi$ 'icture hasnt chan$ed at all #he $lobal econom" is on the brin as none of the re$ions co%ered b" sentix

are sendin$ si$ns of ho'e. Particularl" battered are the re$ions of Katin +merica and Eastern Euro'e. ut also in ,a'an

failed the administration to re%erse the trend )ith the ne)est 3stimulus 'aca$e4 of ne$ati%e interest rates.

&owest since>ktober (

&owest since$pril ?

&owest since$ugust (

&owest since$ugust (



7. Februar 2016 Please mind the disclaimer at the end of the document! © 2016 sentix GmbH <

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-ore tables

&owest since6o0ember

&owest since>ctober

&owest since<ecember

&owest since6o0ember

&owest since#eptember )@

&owest since<ecember )1



7. Februar 2016 Please mind the disclaimer at the end of the document! © 2016 sentix GmbH B

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?ata a%ailabilit"

+bout sentix#he sentix GmbH is a German"=based inde'endent research institute- located in Franfurt L ;ain. Founded in 2001- sentix

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our clients are bi$ fund mana$ements $rou's as )ell as bans and inde'endent fiduciaries. #he data 'roducts are deri%ed

from the sentix Global n%estor sur%e"- to )hich more than B.000 in%estors from 20( countries contribute.

ac$round- methodolo$" and more

ee htt'@LLeconomics.sentix.de

#he idea of the Meconom" cloc3

#he sentix econom" cloc sho) the assessment of the current situation and in%es=

tors 6=month ex'ectations in a x=" dia$ram. #he assessment of the current situa=

tion is dis'la"ed on the x=axis and 6=month ex'ectations on the "=axis. +n u'turn-

for instance- is characterised b" still ne$ati%e readin$s for the assessment of the

current situation but alread" 'ositi%e %alues for in%estors ex'ectations. #his is

)h" the u'turn area lies in the u''er left 'art of the cloc. #he $ra'h on the left

hand side sho)s German" startin$ in 200: from a recession endin$ in 0&L1B in a

boom.




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2016 02 Sentix Economic Index Results

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