20151113_2

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

We initiate ISAT report with TP of IDR5,400, BUY premised on a turnaround

on its earnings and profitability. MSCI global index added AKRA (TP 6,350;

BUY) and deleted PTBA. Meanwhile MSCI small cap index added PTBA to the

list and deleted 18 companies (39% of the list are commodity/energy compa-

nies) out of the list. From yesterdays investor summit, worth to highlight

MMLP which managed to seal a deal with Lazada, which could potentially

boost revenue by 40%. Positive Oct 15 national cement sales increase by

12.2% YoY and 11.7% MoM supported by strong growth in bulk and rebound

in bag sales.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Nov 13, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) up by 10 point or 0.2% to 4462 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by infrastructure (+1.5% finance (+1.0%) and miscellaneous industry (-2.1%). Total transaction value was Rp4.3tr. foreign recorded Rp397bn net sell. JCI today is weekening and trade in 4419-4500 range.

Technical Market View

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a season-ally adjusted 276,000 for the week ended Nov. 7. The number was consistent with a strengthening labor market and job openings, encour-aging signs for the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 4,462.2

Global Indices

Dual Listing (NYSE)

Stock Price Rating Reason

AALI 18550 Buy AALI formed tweezer bottom indicated to tech-nical rebound. AALI support Resistant is 17,800-19,000

INTP 19300 Buy INTP with stochastic oscillator golden cross re-mains strong has potential upside in trading range of 18500-20500 for today.

SMGR 10150 Buy We expect SMGR to further strengthen, with todays trading range of 9800-10700

TLKM 2715 Buy After broke the resistance level of 2685, TLKM will further increase today, in our view. TLKMs today trading range are between 2685-2770

CPIN 2705 Sell After yesterdays technical rebound, we believe CPIN to decrease today with support and re-sistance levels of 2600-2820

HMSP 94675 Sell

Based on technical analysis, as its Stochastic Oscillator formed a dead cross, we expect HMSP to move downward today within the range of 91000-98000

Change 0.24%

Transaction Volume (m) 3,530

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 4,372

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,665

Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.8

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.9%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,448.1 -254.2 -1.4

Nasdaq 5,005.1 -61.9 -1.2

Nikkei 19,697.8 6 0.0

ST Times 2,959.0 -22.6 -0.8

FTSE 6,178.7 -118.5 -1.9

Hang Seng 22,888.9 537 2.4

Chg %

USD IDR 13,597 -3 -0.010 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.66 0.0 0.210 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 -0.02 -0.8Spread (%) 6.35 0.03 1.0EIDO 20.2 -0.2 -1.1Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,852) -29 1.0

JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15

(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

Investor Summit Takeaway

Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ; Not RatedRp34,600)

The company mostly explained about its marketing plan to put more exposure into digital technology, by

maximizing utilization of instagram, facebook, youtube, etc.

UNVR did not guide its A & P spending portion to sales. Yet, the management stated that it would still main-

tain bigger chunk in above the line segment of 60%.

YTD, UNVR has raised its ASP 3x; 1% in Mar 15, 1% in Aug 15, and 1.8% in Oct 15.

For FY15, UNVR allocated Rp1.2tn CAPEX, of which Rp800bn has been realized up to Sep 15.

UNVR is currently trading at 40x FY16 PE, 29x FY16 EV/EBITDA and is offering 128% ROE in FY16.

Mega Manunggal Property (MMLP IJ; Not Rated Rp850)

The BOD were absent, and was represented by their Corporate Finance & Investor Relations GM.

MMLP managed to seal the deal with Lazada, one of the largest e-commerce company in Indonesia, which

would occupy approximately 60,000 sm NLA in their upcoming Halim warehouse. The management couldnt

guide the done ASP and construction cost, however, guides that this deal should increase their overall reve-

nue by 40%.

Average combined occupancy of their warehouses (approx. 163,000sm by 9M15) is at 95%.

MMLP is being traded at 32x annualized FY15 P/E

Acset Indonusa (ACST IJ; Not Rated; Current price: Rp4,000)

9M15 new contract reached Rp3.1tn with 80% made up of construction, 18% foundation and 2% infrastruc-

ture. Management mentioned that there is unlikely new contracts addition until year-end, especially since

ACST has just begin to tap into infrastructure segment this year.

To mitigate the volatility in property demand, ACST started to tap into infra-related projects, with construct-

ing offices and gates for West Mojokerto and Penompo toll road and West Cilegon toll road. Management also

mentioned the possibility to work in JO and/or as sub-contractor with SOE construction companies and multi-

nationals to tap into government infra project.

On its lackluster 3Q15 results, management explained that most of its projects are in finishing stage in

3Q15, thus gathering lower revenue. Surging operating costs and interest expenses were also cited as the

main reasons to the drop in net profit. However, management expressed optimism in earnings rebound in

the coming quarters

Capex for 2016 is earmarked at Rp100-120bn, depending on the needs of the projects obtained, while ACST

provided ~+10% growth in 2016 new contract from 2015.

ACST also highlights its expertise in heavy foundation, which can drill up to 90-100 meters underground.

Currently in Indonesia there are only 3 companies that are able to do the foundation work for such depth,

according to the management.

On the back of its lackluster result in 3Q14, the stock is currently trading at 115.4x 2015 annualized PE, as

its EPS only translates to Rp34.67/share. However, looking at the companys order book and its potential

synergies with Astra, we believe the company may have more growth to offer in coming years.



Total Bangun Persada (TOTL IJ; Not Rated; Current price: Rp700)

9M15 new contract reached Rp2tn, with FY15 target new contract at Rp3tn. Currently, TOTL is tendering in

Rp6tn worth of projects, thus the management remains optimistic on fulfilling its FY15 target. Management

mentioned the importance of being prudent in taking up new contracts, with not taking too much new con-

tracts and spreading its resources too thinly. Company also mentioned 2016 new contract target of Ro3tn.

For FY15, management is targeting revenue to reach Rp2.3tn (9M15: Rp1.6tn ~70.5%), with net profit

aimed to reach Rp190bn (9M15: Rp149.9bn ~79%). Going into 2016, TOTL aims for Rp2.6tn revenue and

Rp210bn net profit. However, as its target new contract is also Rp3tn, we are thinking that project backlog

may be piling up.

Despite the slowdown in property market, TOTL remains optimistic on their targets. The management further

elaborated TOTL will be able to fully utilize its resources in 2016. While they are not closing the possibility to

enter infra market, TOTL reiterated its stance in buildings, with taking the jobs for buildings and/or sub-

contracting for infra-related projects.

TOTL also shot down the possibility to enter into pre-cast market, as the management deemed too much

competition from current SOE companies. TOTL retains its core competencies in buildings.

While we applaud the management decision to maintain its high-level of service, we think that the company

may not be a beneficiary to Indonesias infra development.

Currently, the stock is trading at 11.9x annualized 2015PE. Using Rp190bn, this would translate to 12.6x

2015PE.

PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM; BUY TP Rp52,800)

Even though the sales volumes in 9M15 declined 3.5% YoY to 58.1 billion sticks (volume portion SKT 11%,

SKM FF 77%, SKM LTN 12%), the sales revenue 9M15 increased 5.9% YoY to IDR51,012bio due to sales

price increase triggered by excise duty increase. Net profit 9M15 IDR4,114bn, increased 1.1% YoY. GGRM

market share in 9M15 remained flat from 20.9% to 20.6%

GGRM plans to spend IDR1-2T CAPEX in 2016. In 2016 GGRM focus to develop the SKM LTN product. Antici-

pating the excise duty in 2016, GGRM may raise the sales price around IDR100-300/pack.

The company is currently trading at 18.4x P/E 2016F.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ; Sell TP Rp1,200)

In 2016F, KLBF targets to reach revenue growth of 10% YoY, in hope that the macroeconomic condition will

improve next year. While for net income, company also targets to reach 10% YoY growth, with assumption

that IDR can be stable at Rp 14,000-15,000.

Management targets OTC to grow 10% YoY, expecting more growth comes from new products but Extra Joss

to remain stable. Nutritional is targeted to have a stronger growth with 14-15% YoY.

Management also targets to increase its export proportion, from 5% per 9M15 to 10% in 2020F.

Regarding acceleration in import process, management stated that it will benefit the industry since they can

do efficiency in the clearing cost. However, management calculates that the impact should be small.

The stock is currently trading at 31x 2016F P/E.



Panorama Sentrawisata (PANR IJ; Not Rated IJ- Not Rated Rp479)

PANR was established back in 1972.

PANR has 3 business segments; tourism, transportation, and hospitality. Also, it has 5 business pillars to

support its core businesses; inbound, transportation, hospitality, media, and travel & leisure.

Currently the company has 7 Panorama branches, more than 35 tour packages for inbound travel, and more

than 200 fleets.

Its inbound travel market is divided by 51% Europe, 38% Asia, Ausie, and NZ, 1% North & South America,

1% Africa & Middle East, and 9% other countries.

Travel and leisure contributes the biggest portion in its revenue of 70%, followed by inbound travel of 15-

20%.

In term of GM; inbound travel has 20-25%, tour and leisure has 10-12%, media has 40%, hospitality has

40%, and transportation has 40%.

The management stated that the biggest opportunity would come from inbound travel business, as Indonesia

has the competitive advantages to be pushed. PANR plans to double its inbound travel volume from 215k

tourists last year.

For its hospitality segment, PANR aims to operate 20 hotels for the next 7 years.

PANR is currently trading at 6x P/E 2016F. The stock is attractive considering its opportunity to grab more

demand, following the planned new International airport opening in Komodo island. Consensus suggests 35%

EPSg 2015-17 CAGR.


News of the Day

Economy : Budget spending until 4 Nov reached Rp

1,408tn ~ 71% of target

Government reveal that until 4 Nov they already gath-

ered Rp 1,109tn state revenue (63% of target) including

the Rp 774.5tn (59.8% of target) tax revenue.

Meanwhile, spending realization reached Rp 1,408.7tn

(71% of target). Capital spending been dirbursed by 39%

of target or Rp 107.6tn, and increase from Rp 88tn as of

mid Oct. In addition to finance the deficit, government

has successfully issued Rp 442tn gross bond issuance

which is 97.5% of total financing target. Source : Inves-

tor Daily ([email protected])

Banks: Central Bank sees 12-15% loan growth next

year

This is under the assumption of 5.2-5.6% economic

growth in 2016, on the back of positive impact from the

government stimulus, prudent stance of the Fed in raising

the rate, and China economic stimulus. In addition, main-

tained CAD below 3% will also support inflation to stabi-

lize within 3-5%. However, BBCA only targets below 10%

loan growth next year despite ample liquidity. The com-

pany is still assessing the situation before turning more

positive on loan disbursement. On the other hand, BBRI

expects 13% YoY loan growth next year. Source: Inves-

tor Daily ([email protected])

BBTN: eyes >25% YoY earnings growth in 2016F

The management mentioned 4 factors that can contribute

to the high earnings growth: the government public

housing program, efficiency, decline in NPL, and digital

banking products. BBTN will also target other housing

loans, e.g., financing for housing equipment (sofa, kitch-

en tools, etc) as well as education loans. In addition, CEO

Maryono also expects 20-30% fee-based income growth

in 2016 as supported by digital banking products. Source:

Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

The govt has yet to decide on cheaper gas supplies

This could revive industries on North Sumatra after 20k

employee layoffs deriving from soaring gas prices. The

govt prepares to reduce gas prices by 1 Jan 16. Source:

The Jakarta Post ([email protected])

OJK: insurance and pension funds to have govt

bonds allocation of 20-30%

OJK plans to regulate the insurance and pension funds by

setting minimum government bonds allocation of 20-30%

of its investment portfolio. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

GGRM: is seeking IDR9trn loan to purchase excise tax

on Dec15

Excise tax to increase on average 11.1% next year. Typical-

ly an excise tax hike can be passed on to the consumers.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

ASII: 4W market share stable, 2W market share to

increase next year

ASII expect its 4W market share to be sustained in 2016 at

the ~50% level amid tough market conditions. Meanwhile,

ASII expects its 2W market share to increase to 70% from

its current 68%. ASII expects its non-auto segment contri-

bution to increase next year from the current 35% of net

p r o f i t . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

AKRA to obtain USD70m loan to finance its terminal

tank capacity expansion

70%-80% of the funds will be raised through external

loans. Currently its tank terminal capacity is 250.8k kl and

will expand to 450.8k kl. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

TOTL: expects 2016 revenue to reach IDR2.6trn, up

13.0% YoY

Next years revenue growth will be driven by new construc-

tion projects which have been obtained. Source: Bisnis

Indonesia ([email protected])

KLBF: Capex in 2016F reached Rp 1.2trn

This is an increase of 20% from 2015F Capex target of Rp

900bn-1trn. In 2016F, KLBF plans to expand its Biosimilar

factory (~Rp 500-600bn), OTC (~Rp 250-300bn), and

branches in Eastern Indonesia (~Rp 250-300bn). Source:

Investor Daily ([email protected])

ITMG: To close Tandung Mayang mine

As mining operation is done. Assets and human resources

will be transferred to PT Tambang Raya Usaha Tama, a

subsidiary doing internal service contractor business. ITMG

also planned to close another mine operated by PT Jorong

Barutama Greston in 2017, if they didnt get to acquire

another pit around the area. Regarding PLTU Java 7, there

is still no clarity on tender winner. Source: Kontan

([email protected])

APLN: to further develop their Bogor site, Vimala Hills

By launching two new condominium towers named Vimala

View worth Rp800mn, adding 500 additional units available

for sale. ASP guided at Rp27mn psm. Source: Investor

Daily ([email protected])


News of the Day

Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) released Oct domestic sales volumes, and here are the highlights:

Oct industry sales volume grew by 12.2% YoY and 11.66% MoM, supported by strong growth in bulk, and rebound

in bag sales

We believe that this is due to the progressing infra projects, as well as further development of Jokowis one million

house program

Cumulatively, total sales volume has inched up by 1.6% from 10M14. For the listed companies, only SMBR was

booking positive domestic sales growth (+26.5%). SMCB booked an overall +2.6% sales growth, but due to clinker

export, while domestic sales volume still -2.23%

Out of industry volume, SMGR have some 47% market share in bulk, which we expect to continue to help the com-

panys sales going forward

Market share-wise, using total cement sales as the base, compared to September 2015, other than INTP (which

market share rose to 27.8% from 26.7%), other listed cement companies market share slid down. SMGR to 42.5%

from 43%; SMCB to 15.1% from 15.4% and SMBR to 2.6% from 2.8%. ([email protected])

Oct-15 SMGR INTP SMCB SMBR Industry YoY (%) MoM (%)

Total 2,749 1,801 975 169 6,471 12.23% 11.66%

Domestic 2,713 1,754 939 169 6,351 10.28% 11.85%

Export 36 47 37 0 120 1572.69% 2.46%

Bags 1,959 1,331 763 117 4,735 6.01% 11.82%

Bulk 754 424 176 52 1,615 25.03% 11.95%

Market Share 42.5% 27.8% 15.1% 2.6%

10M15 SMGR INTP SMCB SMBR Industry YoY (%)

Total 21,353 13,858 7,319 1,256 49,812 1.64%

Domestic 20,926 13,729 6,973 1,256 48,906 0.31%

Export 427 129 347 0 906 254.16%

Bags 15,916 10,461 5,674 844 37,411 -2.10%

Bulk 5,010 3,268 1,298 413 11,495 9.11%

Market Share 42.9% 27.8% 14.7% 2.5%

Source: ASI, TRIM research


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

-109

-51

-467

-88

-11

-185

-670

-115

-651

-260

2

62

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

100

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Oct-

15

Nov-15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD

Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD troy oz.)(Rp)ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/MT)(Rp)TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/3/2015 US Factory Orders Sep -0.9 -1.0 -1.7

11/4/2015 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct F 54.2 54.1 54.2

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct F 54 53.9 54

US MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Oct -- -0.8 -3.5

US ADP Employment Change (USDbn) Oct 180 182.0 200

US Trade Balance (USDbn) Sep -41 -40.8 -48.3

US Markit US Composite PMI Oct F -- 55.0 54.5

US Markit US Services PMI Oct F 54.5 54.8 54.4

US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct 56.5 59.1 56.9

EC PPI MoM Sep -0.5 -0.3 -0.8

EC PPI YoY Sep -3.3 -3.1 -2.6

11/5/2015 ID GDP YoY 3Q 4.8 4.7 4.7

US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 31-Oct 262 276.0 260

US Continuing Claims ('000') 24-Oct 2140 2163.0 2144

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 1-Nov -- 41.1 42.8

EC Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Oct -- 51.3 51.9

EC Retail Sales MoM Sep 0.2 -0.1 0.0

EC Retail Sales YoY Sep 3.0 2.9 2.3

11/6/2015 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls ('000') Oct 185 271 142

US Change in Manufact. Payrolls ('000') Oct -5 0 -9

US Unemployment Rate (%) Oct 5 5 5.1

ID Foreign Reserves (USDbn) Oct - 100.7 101.7

11/9/2015 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Nov 13.1 15.1 11.7

11/10/2015 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Oct 96.5 96.1 96.1

US Import Price Index MoM (%) Oct -0.3 -0.1 -0.1

US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Sep 0.1 0.5 0.1

11/11/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications (%) 6-Nov -- -1.3 -0.8

11/12/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 7-Nov 270 276 276

US Continuing Claims ('000') 31-Oct 2165 2174 2163

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Nov -- 41.6 41.1

EC Industrial Production SA MoM Sep -0.1 -- -0.5

EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Sep 1.3 -- 0.9

11/13/2015 US Monthly Budget Statement (USDbn) Oct -130 -- --

US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -- 0.1

US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%) Oct 0.4 -- -0.3

US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%) Oct 0.4 -- 0.0

US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -- -0.5

US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -- -0.3

US PPI Final Demand YoY (%) Oct -1.2 -- -1.1

US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%) Oct -- -- 0.8

US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov P 91.5 -- 90

EC Trade Balance SA (USDbn) Sep 19.3 -- 19.8

EC Trade Balance NSA (USDbn) Sep 16 -- 11.2

EC GDP SA QoQ (%) 3Q A 0.4 -- 0.4

EC GDP SA YoY (%) 3Q A 1.7 -- 1.5

11/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Nov -5 -- -11.4

ID Trade Balance (USDmn) Oct -- -- 1017

11/17/2015 ID Exports YoY Oct -- -- -18.0

EC CPI MoM Oct -- -- 0.2

EC CPI YoY Oct F -- -- 0.0

EC CPI Core YoY Oct F -- -- 1.0

11/17/2015 US CPI MoM Oct -- -- -0.2

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Oct -- -- 0.2


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) -14.63% 3,530

YTD (USD) 5.67% 4,372

Moving Avg 20day 4,552 4,665

Moving Avg 50day 4,439 12.8

Moving Avg 200day 4,952 2.9%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 5,219.6 9.9 0.2 -15.8

JII 582.5 -2.4 -0.4 -15.7

LQ45 759.3 2.6 0.3 -15.5

JAKFIN Index 660.0 6.6 1.0 -9.8

JAKINFR Index 897.3 13.2 1.5 -22.7

JAKMINE Index 914.0 -7.3 -0.8 -33.2

JAKCONS Index 2,004.5 -14.3 -0.7 -8.0

JAKTRAD Index 817.5 1.0 0.1 -7.0

JAKMIND Index 1,139.7 -24.1 -2.1 -12.8

JAKBIND Index 383.4 -1.7 -0.5 -29.5

JAKPROP Index 479.9 4.9 1.0 -8.6

JAKAGRI Index 1,670.6 11.2 0.7 -28.9

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 186.4 -1.9 -1.02 -18.9

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 44.1 -1.8 -3.82 -23.1Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 41.8 -1.2 -2.75 -21.7

Natural Gas 2.3 -0.0 -0.13 -22.1

COAL (AUS Daily) 52.1 -0.1 -0.19 -16.0

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,489.0 -26.5 -1.75 -18.8

Nickel (USD/tonne) 9,410 -250 -2.59 -37.9

Tin (USD/tonne) 14,620 -205 -1.38 -24.6

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,081.0 -3.9 -0.36 -8.7

Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.2 -0.0 -0.27 -8.8

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,236 -1.0 -0.04 -2.4

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,227 -4.8 -0.39 -25.2

Corn (USD/bu.) 362 -0.3 -0.07 -8.8

Wheat (USD/bu.) 498 3.3 0.66 -15.6

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 863 2.3 0.26 -15.3

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)USDEUR Euro 0.925 -0.006 -0.6 15.6

USDGBP UK 0.657 -0.001 -0.1 9.4

USDCHF Switzerland 1.000 -0.004 -0.4 0.0

USDCAD Canada 1.329 0.003 0.2 10.8

USDAUD Australia 1.403 -0.013 -0.9 17.0

USDNZD New Zealand 1.528 0.003 0.2 17.6

USDJPY Japan 122.61 -0.250 -0.2 2.3

USDCNY China 6.37 0.00 0.0 2.7

USDHKD Hongkong 7.750 -0.000 -0.0 -0.6

USDSGD Singapore 1.419 -0.001 -0.1 9.1

Rupiah Indonesia 13,597 -3.0 -0.0 9.8

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)MXWO MSCI Word 1,671.5 -20.39 -1.21 -2.23

SPX S&P 500 2,046.0 -29.03 -1.40 -0.63

US

17,448.1 -254.2 -1.44 -2.10

Nasdaq US 5,005.1 -61.94 -1.22 5.68

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 372.6 -6.15 -1.62 8.78

FTSE London 6,178.7 -118.52 -1.88 -5.90

DAX Jerman 10,782.6 -125.2 -1.15 9.96

CAC France 4,856.7 -95.86 -1.94 13.66

SMI Swiss 8,816.9 -67.61 -0.76 -1.85

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 46,883.6 -181 -0.39 -6.25

MICEX Russia 1,740.0 -0.60 -0.03 24.59

SENSEX India 25,867.0 0.0 0.00 -5.94

NIFTY India 7,825.0 0.0 0.00 -5.53

SHCOMP China 3,632.9 -17.35 -0.48 12.31

SZCOMP China 2,259.5 6.28 0.28 59.66

Nikkei Japan 19,697.8 6.4 0.03 12.88

TPX Japan 1,593.6 -1.75 -0.11 13.22

HSI Hong kong 22,888.9 537 2.40 -3.03

KOSPI S.Korea 1,993.4 -3.91 -0.20 4.06

TAIEX Taiwan 8,428.1 13.1 0.16 -9.45

FSSTI Singapore 2,959.0 -22.58 -0.76 -12.07

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,384.3 -5.86 -0.42 -7.57

PCOMP Philipines 6,909.8 -73.9 -1.06 -4.44

KLCI Malaysia 1,663.2 -2.12 -0.13 -5.57

VNINDEX Vietnam 605.6 2.05 0.34 10.99

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

-1.1

-1.4

-1.6

-2.1

-2.6

-2.6

-3.3

-3.3

-3.4

-4.7

UNTR

INDF

UNVR

BDMN

MYOR

ASII

HMSP

SMGR

INCO

ADRO25.0

11.1

6.0

5.4

4.3

3.3

2.4

2.3

1.9

0.5

MAYA

EXCL

CTRA

SMRA

GGRM

BBNI

BMRI

SCMA

TLKM

BBRI

212

205

184

183

110

94

92

92

88

82

- 100 200 300

BMRI

BBRI

ASII

TLKM

HMSP

BBNI

MYRX

SSMS

KREN

MIKA

169

158

137

123

71

69

68

68

66

55

0 100 200

META

PPRO

MYRX

ANTM

PWON

KIJA

TAXI

TLKM

SUGI

ASRI

7,317

7,094

5,412

4,932

4,899

4,836

4,835

4,667

4,609

4,530

KREN

LMPI

BMRI

BBNI

SSMS

SCMA

BOLT

KLBF

TAXI

TLKM

JCI 4,462.2 10.6 0.2%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Technical Call 12-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,589 strengthened

4,612 0.48% Correct

PTPP 3,805 Buy

3,830 0.66% Correct

GGRM 43,425 Buy

43,700 0.63% Correct

SMRA 1,420 Buy

1,440 1.41% Correct

BBRI 10,550 Buy

10,675 1.18% Correct

BBTN 1,095 Buy

1,105 0.91% Correct

SRIL 392 Trd. Buy

397 1.28% Correct



4,612 0.48% Correct

NIRO 128 Buy

130 1.56% Correct

DMAS 230 Buy

231 0.43% Correct

SMCB 1,100 Buy

1,105 0.45% Correct

ITMG 10,500 Buy

10,850 3.33% Correct

SRIL 392 Buy

397 1.28% Correct

PGAS 3,000 Sell

2,995 -0.17% Correct



4,491 0.10% Correct

TLKM 2,740 Buy

2,710 -1.09% Incorrect

TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,450 0.78% Correct

PWON 397 Buy

390 -1.76% Incorrect

ASRI 398 Buy


ASII 6,125 Sell

6,325 3.27% Incorrect

PGAS 2,950 Sell

2,890 -2.03% Correct



4,612 0.48% Correct

TINS 710 Buy

730 2.82% Correct

INCO 2,310 Buy

2,410 4.33% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell


BBRI 10,550 Sell


PWON 416 Buy

420 0.96% Correct

SMGR 10,550 Buy

10,700 1.42% Correct



4,446 2.35% Correct

AALI 20,325 Buy

20,000 -1.60% Incorrect

BMRI 8,200 Buy

8,900 8.54% Correct

PWON 367 Buy

383 4.36% Correct

BBNI 4,400 Buy

4,535 3.07% Correct

ITMG 10,000 Sell


SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy

10,075 0.25% Correct





4,344 3.23% Correct

ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy

10,000 2.83% Correct

PWON 339 Spec Buy

367 8.26% Correct

ANTM 481 Spec Buy

481 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,585 Buy

3,700 3.21% Correct

GGRM 44,450 Buy

46,600 4.84% Correct

SSMS 1,730 Buy

1,795 3.76% Correct


JCI 4,255 Weakening

4,208 -1.11% Correct

PTPP 3,580 Buy

3,585 0.14% Correct

ASII 5,275 Buy


AALI 19,300 Buy

19,100 -1.04% Incorrect

TINS 680 Buy


INCO 2,545 Buy


GGRM 43,300 Buy

44,450 2.66% Correct



4,255 0.73% Correct

TLKM 2,645 Buy


TBIG 6,550 Buy


ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,180 0.43% Correct

UNVR 38,000 Buy

38,800 2.11% Correct

INCO 2,185 Trd. Buy

2,545 16.48% Correct

TINS 640 Trd. Buy

680 6.25% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation


4,224 1.09% Correct

PTPP 3,475 Buy


BBNI 4,070 Buy

4,135 1.60% Correct

BBRI 8,350 Buy

8,650 3.59% Correct

ASII 5,300 Buy


GGRM 42,750 Sell

42,000 -1.75% Correct

UNTR 16,900 Sell



JCI 4,121 Weakening


PTPP 3,410 Buy

3,475 1.91% Correct

ROTI 1,145 Buy


TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,400 0.00% Correct

AKRA 5,875 Sell


BBTN 1,000 Sell

995 -0.50% Correct

LSIP 1,400 Sell





JCI 4,209 Rebound


TLKM 2,655 Buy


PTPP 3,470 Buy


BBNI 4,110 Buy


BBRI 8,550 Buy


ADRO 585 Buy


AKRA 6,000 Sell

5,875 -2.08% Correct


JCI 4,244 Weakening

4,209 -0.82% Correct

ITMG 9,500 Buy


TBIG 6,550 Buy


LSIP 1,320 Buy

1,400 6.06% Correct

AALI 17,925 Buy

17,950 0.14% Correct

INCO 1,870 Buy

2,080 11.23% Correct

TINS 620 Buy

645 4.03% Correct


JCI 4,344 Weakening

4,244 -2.29% Correct

LSIP 1,260 Buy

1,320 4.76% Correct

ASII 5,800 Buy


TBIG 6,800 Buy


ADRO 595 Buy


SRIL 373 Buy

377 1.07% Correct

BWPT 254 Sell

246 -3.15% Correct


JCI 4,376 Rebound


TLKM 2,730 Buy


AALI 18,100 Buy

17,900 -1.10% Incorrect

ASII 5,800 Buy

5,800 0.00% Correct

BBNI 4,330 Buy


DILD 625 Buy


ROTI 1,175 Buy



JCI 4,380 Weakening

4,376 -0.10% Correct

ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,175 0.00% Correct

SCMA 2,780 Buy

2,800 0.72% Correct

GGRM 42,825 Buy

43,025 0.47% Correct

TLKM 2,690 Buy

2,730 1.49% Correct

EXCL 2,395 Sell

2,415 0.84% Correct

WTON 895 Sell

885 -1.12% Correct





4,380 0.04% Correct

BBNI 4,350 Buy


SCMA 2,700 Buy

2,780 2.96% Correct

UNVR 39,100 Buy

39,100 0.00% Correct

TINS 640 Buy


WIKA 2,725 Sell

2,710 -0.55% Correct

ROTI 1,180 Sell

1,175 -0.42% Correct


JCI 4,333 Rebound

4,378 1.06% Correct

UNTR 18,850 Buy

18,675 -0.93% Incorrect

TLKM 2,720 Buy

2,680 -1.47% Correct

BBNI 4,315 Buy


PWON 348 Buy

351 0.86% Incorrect

SMGR 9,700 Buy

9,700 0.00% Correct

ASII 5,900 Buy

5,925 0.42% Correct


JCI 4,347 Weakening

4,333 -0.34% Correct

AKRA 5,575 Buy

5,575 0.00% Correct

UNTR 18,200 Buy

18,850 3.57% Correct

BBNI 4,360 Buy


BMRI 8,700 Buy


WIKA 2,675 Sell

2,660 -0.56% Correct

MPPA 2,290 Sell

2,245 -1.97% Correct


JCI 4,390 Weakening

4,347 -0.98% Correct

BBNI 4,450 Buy

4,360 -2.02% Correct

BBCA 12,100 Buy

11,950 -1.24% Correct

AKRA 5,750 Buy


SMRA 1,330 Buy


INTP 19,975 Sell

19,300 -3.38% Correct

PGAS 2,665 Sell

2,620 -1.69% Correct


JCI 4,360 Rebond

4,390 0.69% Correct

LSIP 1,170 Buy

1,210 3.42% Correct

BWPT 275 Buy

275 0.00% Correct

KLBF 1,550 Buy


AALI 18,000 Sell


ADRO 565 Spec. Buy

570 0.88% Correct

PGAS 2,685 Sell

2,665 -0.74% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Wisnu Budhiargo

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Patricia Gabriela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Kevie Aditya

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Jennifer Yapply

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the companys equity securities.

This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk located outside of the United States (a non-US

Group Company). This report is distributed in the U.S. by Enclave Capital LLC (Enclave Capital), a U.S. registered broker dealer, on behalf of

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk only to major U.S. institutional investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934

(the Exchange Act)) pursuant to the exemption in Rule 15a-6 and any transaction effected by a U.S. customer in the securities described in

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