2015-10-16 GIC EnvisionAlachua+121CaseStudy Knowles+Jones...

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1 |GIC2015:QuantifyingDevelopmentImpactsUsingArcGIS&CV FloridaCaseStudiesinAlachua&LakeCounties Friday,October16,2015 Growth&InfrastructureConference(Portland,OR) PierceJones&HalS.Knowles,III

Transcript of 2015-10-16 GIC EnvisionAlachua+121CaseStudy Knowles+Jones...

Page 1: 2015-10-16 GIC EnvisionAlachua+121CaseStudy Knowles+Jones …growthandinfrastructure.org/proceedings/2015_proceedings/... · 56 |GIC2015:QuantifyingDevelopmentImpactsUsingArcGIS&CV

1 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

����������� � ���� ��������������������������������������

Florida�Case�Studies�in�Alachua�&�Lake�Counties

Friday,�October�16,�2015Growth�&�Infrastructure�Conference�(Portland,�OR)

Pierce�Jones�&�Hal�S.�Knowles,�III

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2 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�� � �������� ����� �How�We�Started:�The�Restoration�Story�Adaptive�Planning�Visualizing�Dwelling�Density�Measuring�Impacts

� Indicator�1:�Water�Consumption�Baselines� Indicator�2:�Energy�Consumption�Baselines� Indicator�3:�Housing�and�Employment�Distributions

�Projecting�Impacts� Case�Study�1:�Three�Alternative�Plans�for�Envision�Alachua� Case�Study�2:�Three�Alternative�Plans�for�SR121�(Alachua�County)� Case�Study�3:�Heritage�Green�(Lake�County)

�Next�Steps

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3 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

!" ����������#�� �������� ���������“Under�an�adaptive�model,�urban�plans�and�designs�can�be�understood�as�hypotheses of�how�a�policy�or�project�will�influence�particular�landscape�processes�or�functions�and�implemented�planning�policies�or�designs�become�‘experiments’ from�which�experts,�professionals,�and�decision�makers�may�gain�new�knowledge�through�monitoring�and�analysis…these�challenges�[of�urban�sustainability�and�community�resilience]�will�demand�a�higher�level�or�inter� or�transdisciplinary�collaboration�in�both�research�and�practice than�presently�exists.”� (Ahern,�2011,�p.�343).

Source:�Ahern,�Jack.�“From�Fail�Safe�to�Safe�to�Fail:�Sustainability�and�Resilience�in�the�New�Urban�World.”Landscape�and�Urban�Planning 100,�no.�4�(April�30,�2011):�341–43.�doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.02.021.

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!" ����������#�� �������� ��������

Source:�Reidsma,�Pytrik,�Hannes�König,�Shuyi Feng,�Irina�Bezlepkina,�Ingrid�Nesheim,�Muriel�Bonin,�Mongi Sghaier,�et�al.“Methods�and�Tools�for�Integrated�Assessment�of�Land�Use�Policies�on�Sustainable�Development�in�Developing�Countries.”�Land�Use�Policy 28,�no.�3�(July�2011):�604–17.�doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.11.009.

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�$ ������ ����Visualizing�Alachua�County:Housing�Types�&�Patterns

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����� %��# ���������������Define�Key�Current�Resource�Usage�in�Alachua�County

� Building�and�landscape�potable�water�consumption� Residential

� Effect�of�in�ground�irrigation�systems� Effect�of�pools� Impact�of�Individual�wells

� Commercial� Selected�consumption�examples�over�a�wide�range�of�business�types

� Building�energy�consumption� Analysis�of�residential�energy�consumption�vs.�housing�density� Visualization�of�community�energy�use

�Measurement�Methods� GRU�Billing�Records

� Electric,�natural�gas,�water�billing�and�consumption�records� Alachua�County�Property�Appraiser

� Building�use�codes/characteristics� Property�use�codes/characteristics

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# ���������������'3-*Quantifying�&�Visualizing�Alachua�County:Water�Consumption�Baselines

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# ���� �%�4�� ���� �Location:

� Alachua�County,�FL�Dwelling�Units�in�Sample�� 5,180�:

• All�units�constructed�since�2000• Single�family�detached�in�28�neighborhoods�� 3,035• Apartments�in�10�complexes�� 1,420• Condominiums�in�18�associations�� 735

�Baseline�Metrics:• Metered�water�use�in�years�2009,�2010�and�2013• Average�gallons�per�day�(gpd)�per�household

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Turnberry LakeHampton�Oaks

Union�Street

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2���VISION,�GO

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� Identify�and�protect�water�recharge�areas� Develop�communities�that�optimize�water�conservation�and�

achieve�a�50�percent�or�greater�reduction�in�water�usage�based�on�current�usage

� Apply�Florida�friendly�guidelines�for�landscaping� Demonstrate�leadership�in�resource�management�by�promoting�and�

adopting�innovative�ways�to�meet�water�needs� Capture,�treat�and�reuse�storm�water�to�the�maximum�extent�

feasible

Goal�DWaterAddress�long�term�needs�for�water�supply,�water�quality�and�water�conservation

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# ���������������'35*Quantifying�&�Visualizing�Alachua�County:Energy�Consumption�Baselines

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Raw�Energy�Data Smoothed�Data

Source:�Tjindra,�Djundi.�“Residential�Land�Use�Density�and�Building�Energy�Consumption:�A�Case�Study�of�the�City�of�Gainesville,�Florida.”Master�of�Science,�University�of�Florida,�2013.�http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0046365/00001.

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Master�of�Science,�University�of�Florida,�2013.�http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0046365/00001.

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# ���� �%�6� ���� �'7��������� ������*

Source:�Tjindra,�Djundi.�“Residential�Land�Use�Density�and�Building�Energy�Consumption:�A�Case�Study�of�the�City�of�Gainesville,�Florida.”Master�of�Science,�University�of�Florida,�2013.�http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0046365/00001.

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2008 2009

Source:�Jones,�Pierce�H.,�Nicholas�W.�Taylor,�M.�Jennison�Kipp,�and�Harold�S.�Knowles.�“Quantifying�Household�Energy�Performance�Using�Annual�Community�Baselines.”International�Journal�of�Energy�Sector�Management 4,�no.�4�(2010):�593–613.�doi:10.1108/17506221011092797.

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# ���� �%�6� ���� �'��7�# �"��*

Source:�Jones,�Pierce�H.,�Ujjval K.�Vyas,�Nicholas�Taylor,�and�M.�Jennison�Kipp.�“Residential�Energy�Efficiency:�A�Model�Methodology�for�Determining�Performance�Outcomes.”Real�Estate�Issues 35,�no.�2�(Summer�2010):�41–47.�http://www.cre.org/publications/rei_absdetail.cfm?lid=1576.

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Savings�Estimate

ENERGY�STAR®

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33 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

# ���������������'38*Quantifying�&�Visualizing�Alachua�County:Housing�&�Employment�Distributions

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34 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

Turnberry Lake

Hampton�Oaks

Union�Street

US�Census�– Longitudinal�Employer�Household�Dynamics�(LEHD)http://lehd.ces.census.gov/

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Turnberry Lake Hampton�Oaks Union�Street

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36 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

���9 �������������'3-*Modeling�Resource�Efficiency:Three�Alternative�Plum�Creek�Envision�Alachua�(EA)�Plans

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37 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

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38 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

6�%����9 �������������Modeling�Methods

� Geodatabase,�using�ESRI�ArcGIS�with�CommunityViz Scenario�360� Analysis�of�three�hypothetical�development�scenario�plans

1. Full�development�under�existing�zoning�in�large�lot�residential�(1�:�3�acres)2. Conventional�residential�lots�(3�DUs:�1�acre)�with�supporting�retail3. Proposed�scenario�of�mixed�residential,�commercial�&�manufacturing.

� Land�use�transect�grid�(~26,000�analysis�cells�@�1�hectare�each)� Site�suitability�analysis

� Impacts�Modeled�(for�each�future�scenario�plan)� Land�use�pattern�(developed�and�disturbed�areas)� Infrastructure� Energy�use�and�greenhouse�gas�emissions� Indoor�and�outdoor�water�use� Stormwater volume�and�surface�water�nutrient�loading� Vehicle�miles�traveled�(VMT)

�Disclosure:�Study�funded�by�Plum�Creek,�LLC

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Plan�1

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Plan�2

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Inset�Next�Slide

Plan�3

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OverallSuitability

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Plan�3

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Plan�1 Plan�2 Plan�3

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Residential Non�Residential�&�Mixed�Use Manufacturing

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10,000

20,000

30,000

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

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Roads Stormwater Potable�Water WastewaterCommunications Electric Natural�Gas

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6�%�6� ���� �'�������!����*

0

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150

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53 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

6�%�������Units Plan�1 Plan�2 Plan�3

Urban�Land�Uses Acres 26,800 5,493 3,829

Conservation�Options Acres 24,000 55,440 53,790

Roads Miles 264 131 77

Infrastructure�Costs Million�$ 603 838 609

Water�Demand Mgal/Yr 1,147 1,502 850

Energy�(Residential)�Demand eMWh/Yr 158 143 107

Energy�(Total)�Demand eMWh/Yr 0 57 422

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54 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

6�%������������������ ��������Study�Limitations:

� Comparative�scenario�plans�represent�three�possibilities�along�a�continuum�of�alternatives

� Model�only�resolves�direction�&�relative�magnitude� Manufacturing�impacts�are�industry�specific,�highly�variable,�&�beyond�study�scope

� Water�&�stormwater impacts�highly�dependent�on�design�&�policy�patterns�at�finer�resolutions�than�this�study

�More�Investigation�Needed:� Do�private�wells�&�no�cost�water�supply�in�rural�residential�result�in�higher�usage�than�public�supply?� (e.g.,�equestrian,�private�agriculture)

� Multi�modal�transit�&�detailed�transportation�networks

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55 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

���9 �������������'35*Modeling�Resource�Efficiency:Three�Alternative�Plum�Creek�(SR121)�Plans

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56 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%����9 �������������Modeling�Methods

� Geodatabase�using�ESRI�ArcGIS�with�CommunityViz Scenario�360� Analysis�of�three�hypothetical�development�scenario�plans�for�1,890�dwelling�units�on�1,778�acres�(1,016�acres�or�57%�wetlands)

1. Comparison�Plan:�Base�mix�SFD�/�SFA�/�MF;�25,000�ft2 office;�75,000�ft2 retail2. Vision�Plan�A:�Most�dense�mix�SFD�/�SFA�/�MF;�assisted�living�facility;�600,000�ft2

office;�180,000�ft2 retail3. Vision�Plan�B:�More�dense�mix�SFD�/�SFA�/�MF;�assisted�living�facility;�600,000�ft2

office;�140,000�ft2 retail� Imported�and�adapted�three�AutoCAD�community�plans�(Plum�Creek)

� Impacts�Modeled�(for�each�future�scenario�plan)� Land�use�pattern�(developed�and�disturbed�areas)� Infrastructure� Energy�use�and�greenhouse�gas�emissions� Indoor�and�outdoor�water�use� Stormwater volume�and�surface�water�nutrient�loading� Vehicle�miles�traveled�(VMT)

� Disclosure:�Study�funded�by�Plum�Creek,�LLC

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57 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%��#!�'# �"���*� ArcGIS�10.1�network�analyst�tool�(shortest�path�via�O�D�matrices)� ITE�Trip�Generation�Spreadsheet�8th�Edition

� Mean�number�of�weekday trips� Trips�divided�into�three�categories�based�on�origin,�purpose,�&�residential�type

| Home�based�work�(HBW)�| Home�based�other�(HBO)�| Non�home�based�(NHB)�|

� Mixed�Use�Trip�Generation�Model�v�4.0�by�Fehr�&�Peers� %�household�weekday�mean�trips�to�destinations�within�proposed�development�(internal�

capture)� %�HBO�trips�to�internal�parks�derived�from�known�local�trips�by�purpose� HBO�and�NHB�distances�of�the�external weekday�trips�converted�known�mean�trip�duration�

(in�minutes) and�known�mean�trip�speed�(in�miles�per�hour) for�Alachua�County�into�localized�mean�HBO�and�NHB�trip�distances�(in�miles)

� HBW�distances�of�the�external weekday�trips�added�residence�to�closest�egress�point�distance�to�weighted�average�distance�from�the�egress�point�to�14�county�destinations�based�on�their�%�of�nearby�jobs�from�the�US�Census�LEHD�(using�“count�closest”)

Residences�(O)�to�Parks�(D)

Residences�(O)�to�Internal�Non�Residential�(D)

Residences�(O)�to�Egress�Points�(D)

Egress�Points�(O)�to�External�Destinations�(D)

Residence� Parks Residence Non�Res Residence Egress Egress ExternalBase�Plan 1218 2 1218 4 1218 12 12 15Vision�Plan�A 934 6 934 11 934 8 8 15Vision�Plan�B 1006 5 1006 7 1006 8 8 15

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58 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%��#!�'6� ���� ����������*

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59 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%��#!�'62�=�� ����������*

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60 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%��#!�'074�# ���!����������� *External�Destination�Name1

Average�Distance�from�Egress�to�Destination�(Miles)

County�EploymentWeighted�Distance�from�Egress�to�Employment�

(Miles�x�%�jobs)

Base Plan�A Plan�BJobs�Near�Destination

%�Near�Destination

Base Plan�A Plan�B

Airport 7.60 7.05 7.05 5,086 4.8% 0.36 0.34 0.34Alachua 9.95 10.34 10.35 4,862 4.6% 0.45 0.47 0.47Archer 19.29 18.74 18.74 448 0.42% 0.08 0.08 0.08Butler�Plaza 8.47 7.92 7.92 12,218 11.5% 0.97 0.91 0.91Gainesville 7.05 6.50 6.49 23,797 22.3% 1.57 1.45 1.45Hawthorne�Square�Shopping�Center

22.81 22.25 22.25 627 0.59% 0.13 0.13 0.13

High�Springs 16.59 16.99 17.00 1,324 1.24% 0.21 0.21 0.21Lacrosse 8.11 8.77 8.78 244 0.23% 0.02 0.02 0.02Micanopy 17.84 17.29 17.29 376 0.35% 0.063 0.061 0.061Newberry 20.41 20.03 20.03 4,239 4.0% 0.811 0.796 0.796Oaks�Mall�&�N�FL�Medical�Center

8.43 7.88 7.88 17,734 16.6% 1.40 1.31 1.31

Santa�Fe�College 7.71 7.16 7.15 7,162 6.7% 0.52 0.48 0.48UF�and�Shands 7.66 7.11 7.10 21,598 20.3% 1.55 1.44 1.44Waldo�Flea�Market 0.000 17.27 17.26 352 0.33% 0.000 0.057 0.057Walmart�Super�Center 2.05 1.50 1.49 6,562 6.15% 0.13 0.09 0.09Total�Home�Based�Work�Trip�Average�Distance�(Miles) 8.27 7.79 7.78

[1] Distribution�of�Alachua�County�employment�centers�derived�from�the�US�Census�Longitudinal�Employer�Household�Dynamics�(http://lehd.ces.census.gov/).

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61 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%��#!�'�����������*Base Plan�A Plan�B

Annual�Miles�Per�Household 24,270 19,780 20,870

%�reduced 19% 14%

Total�Annual�VMT,�Million�miles�

HBW�(Daily) 17.2 14.6 15.7

%�reduced 15% 9%

HBO�(Daily) 21.2 17.1 17.5

%�reduced 19% 17%

NHB�(Daily) 7.5 5.7 6.3

%�reduced 23% 16%

Total 45.9 37.4 39.5

%�reduced 18% 14%

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62 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

�&-5-%�������Units Base Plan�A Plan�B

Urban�Land�Uses Acres 522 392 411

Conservation�Options Acres 1,256 1,386 1,367

Roads Miles 22.6 14.8 17.7

Infrastructure�Costs Million $ 65.8 44.3 50.3

Water�(Indoor)�Demand MGal/Yr 86.9 80.7 83.9

Water�(Outdoor)�Demand MGal/Yr 116.5 50.9 56.1

Water�(Non�Residental)�Demand MGal/Yr 12.2 62.8 56.5

Energy�(Residential)�Demand eMWh/Yr 19,270 16,780 17,200

Energy�(Total)�Demand eMWh/Yr 3,620 24,150 22,550

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63 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

���9 �������������'38*Modeling�Resource�Efficiency:Three�Alternative�Heritage�Green�(HG)�Plans

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64 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

; 2���� ��Philosophies�and�Practices�On�the�Horizon

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65 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

; 2�%�4 <���� ��� ������������

Source:�http://www.costofsprawl.org/

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Source:�h

ttp://www.iftf.org/our�w

ork/glob

al�la

ndscape/hu

man

�settle

men

t/the�future�of�c

ities�in

form

ation�an

d�inclusion/

; 2�%�������+�<������� �

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67 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

; 2�%����/7�� ����������������������

Source:�http://www.wired.com/2014/06/strava�sells�cycling�data/

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68 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

; 2�%����/7�� ���������������7�� ���

Source:�http://shareabouts�pbcambridge.herokuapp.com/page/about

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69 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

; 2�%�!" ��:�;�$>:�4����7 ?

Source:�http://www.dmarlin.com/uf�then�now/

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70 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

4"��������������<����?�'7��������*�Most�widely�cited�=�sustainable�development�is�development�that�meets�the�needs�of�the�present�without�compromising�the�ability�of�future�generations�to�meet�their�own�needs� Gro Harlem�Bruntland,�1987

�Often�considered�too�general� So�vague�as�to�be�consistent�with�almost�any�form�of�action�(or�inaction)� Pearce�et�al.,�1994

Source:�Tainter,�Joseph�A.�“Social�Complexity�and�Sustainability.”�Ecological�Complexity 3,�no.�2�(June�2006):�91–103.�doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.07.004.

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71 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

4"��������������<����?�'!���� �*�Sustainability�is�the�capacity�to�continue�a�desired�condition�or�process,�social�or�ecological.� People�sustain�what�they�value,�which�can�only�derive�from�what�they�know.

�Sustainability�is�not�the�achievement�of�stasis…it�takes�continuous�work

�Challenges�to�sustainability�are�endless�in�number�and�infinite�in�variety

�Sustainability�is�a�matter�of�problem�solving� Science�is�humanity’s�ultimate�exercise�in�problem�solving

Source:�Tainter,�Joseph�A.�“Social�Complexity�and�Sustainability.”�Ecological�Complexity 3,�no.�2�(June�2006):�91–103.�doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.07.004.

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72 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

4"������& ���� �� ?�Resilience�is�the�ability�to�absorb�disturbances,�to�be�changed�

and�then�to�reorganize�and�still�have�the�same�identity�(retain�the�same�basic�structure�and�ways�of�functioning)� Ability�to�learn�from�the�disturbance� Forgiving�of�external�shocks

� Decreasing�resilience�increases�disruptiveness�of�ever�smaller�shocks� A�shifting�focus:

� From�growth�and�efficiency�(fragile�and�rigid)� To�recovery�and�flexibility�(novelty�and�opportunity)

�Resilience�vs.�sustainability� In�social�systems,�resiliency�can�mean�abandoning�sustainability�goals�and�the�values�that�underlie�them.

� A�fully�resilient�society�would�be�a�valueless�one,�which�by�definition�cannot�be� Degradation�is�a�social�construct�(Sander�van�der�Leeuw)

Source:�Tainter,�Joseph�A.�“Social�Complexity�and�Sustainability.”�Ecological�Complexity 3,�no.�2�(June�2006):�91–103.�doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.07.004.

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73 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

!" �&�� ��������� 2���Diversity�and�complexity�emerge�in�an�ecological�system�from�available�energy�and�water,�and�from�competition,�which�stimulate�speciation�or�support�immigration� Humans�are�not�prone�to�complexity�(&�are�often�averse�to�it)

�Every�increase�in�complexity�has�a�cost� Energy,�labor,�money,�or�time�needed�to�create,�maintain,�and�replace�systems�that�grow

� More�parts,�more�specialists,�more�regulation�of�behavior,�more�information

Source:�Tainter,�Joseph�A.�“Social�Complexity�and�Sustainability.”�Ecological�Complexity 3,�no.�2�(June�2006):�91–103.�doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.07.004.

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74 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

!" �&�� ��������� 2���Before�fossil�fuels�human�complexity�increased�in�direct�proportion�to�increased�and/or�higher�quality�human�labor

�Human�problem�solving�efforts�are�powerful�complexity�generators� Complexity�grows�as�problems�require�it� Problems�continue�to�arise,�thus�pressure�for�complexity�increases

�Complexity�is�an�economic�function� Early�efforts�are�simple�and�cost�effective� Past�the�point�of�diminishing�returns,�investments�in�complexity�can�lead�to�ineffective�problem�solving�and/or�collapse

Source:�Tainter,�Joseph�A.�“Social�Complexity�and�Sustainability.”�Ecological�Complexity 3,�no.�2�(June�2006):�91–103.�doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.07.004.

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75 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

������%�@ ����� ����What�is�sustainability?

� Active�condition�of�problem�solving� Not�passive�consequence�of�consuming�less� We�sustain�what�we�value

�What�is�resilience?� Ability�of�systems�to�adjust�form�&�function�in�response�to�disturbance

� Resilience�� sustainability� Values,�while�crucial�to�sustainability,�may�hinder�system�resilience

�Problems�are�subjective,�though�always�collective,�and�will�never�cease�arising� Solutions�have�consequences�and�form�the�foundation�of�new�problems…so�solve�wisely…and�know�the�cost�of�complexity

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.07.004

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76 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

��� �����':�+ ����������*�)����� �“Early�ideas�on�implementing�sustainability�focused�on�concepts�of�achieving�stability,�practicing�effective�management�and�the�control�of�change�and�growth�– a�‘fail�safe’�mentality.�More�recent�thinking�about�change,�disturbance,�uncertainty,�and�adaptability is�fundamental�to�the�emerging�science�of�resilience,�the�capacity�of�systems�to�reorganize�and�recover�from�change�and�disturbance without�changing�to�other�states�– in�other�words,�systems�that�are�‘safe�to�fail’”� (Ahern,�2011,�p.�341).

Source:�Ahern,�Jack.�“From�Fail�Safe�to�Safe�to�Fail:�Sustainability�and�Resilience�in�the�New�Urban�World.”Landscape�and�Urban�Planning 100,�no.�4�(April�30,�2011):�341–43.�doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.02.021.

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77 |��GIC�2015:�Quantifying�Development�Impacts�Using�ArcGIS�&�CV

!"��A�B��CPierce�Jones�| [email protected]��| 352�392�8074Hal�S.�Knowles,�III��| [email protected]��| 352�273�0239