2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 3_Wim Thomas

Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201

OECD December 2014

Exploring the evolutionary potential of the present using numbers supported by narrative

Complex adaptive systems Cognitive scienceEvolutionary biologyAnthropologyDistributed ethnography


Setting the context

Beyond big data?The internet of things and the quantified self take us beyond the conventional limitations of text base analysis but ...One algorithm to rule them all and in the darkness bid themNeed to remember that we need proper sampling and also advocacy through traceability; no black boxesReal time feedback and to shift from linear to non-linear views of policy and actionForesight needs to focus as much on sidecasting as forecasting or backcasting Shift from a narrative to patterns of micro-narratives perceived as a manageable flow over time


Perspective through self-signified micro-narratives

Landscape containing over 40k self-signified micro-narratives

Hollows are stable patterns, the peaks unstable domains

Yellow dots are outliers

We need to understand the energy needs of a new sustainable narratives

Monitoring as evaluation & who owns the power of

interpretation?


Clusters in the tail …Pr

obab

ility

of o

utco

me

Range of possible outcomes

Gaussian

Low Probability High impact events

Derived from material created by Max BoisotAcademy of Management Montreal 2010

10-²

10-¹10⁰10¹10²10³

10⁴

10⁵

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Magnitude m=log₁₀(S)

N(M

=m(e

arth

quak

es/y

ear)

Pareto

✘

early detection fast recovery speedy exploitation


Monitoring as evaluationLo

g of

eve

nt fr

eque

ncy

Log of event size

Pareto world

Gaussian world

From anticipation ...

... to triggering anticipatory awareness

PossiblePlausible

Probable

Hypothesis/inductive Non-hypothesis/

abductive

Derived from material created by Max BoisotAcademy of Management Montreal 2010


“The invisible gorilla strikes again” Drew, Vo & Wolfe

Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853

“What about expert searchers who have spent years honing their ability

to detect small abnormalities in specific types of image? We asked 24

radiologists to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A gorilla,

48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the

gorilla. Eye-tracking revealed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at the location of the gorilla. Even expert searchers,

operating in their domain of expertise, are vulnerable to

inattentional blindness.”

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=23863753

Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.

Understanding decision makingThe most important thing in this example was

Acting intuitively, instantly

The situation was analysed

logically

People thought deeply and made decisions based on principles

Colour coding by demographicsEach dot represents a story or picture

that can be interrogated to explain the numbers


monitoring community impact

The patterning of indexing should reflect a rightward shift, especially in Teachermante,

with WHG’s entry into the market

It would indicate both that their education programs are gaining success, and that the villagers in Teachermante are moving toward purchase of treated water thereby increasing

its marketshare

Community B

29%6%3%

100% responded

2%

22%

Community A

12%

26%

11%8%12%

96% responded

8%

9©2014 Cognitive Edge. All rights reserved. Strictly confidential.

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Completing on time

Dee

ply

held

val

ues

and

prin

cipl

es

T3 Key behaviours in the story are motivated by:

T8 A

ctio

ns in

this

situ

atio

n ar

e sh

aped

by:

Landscape of Completing on time v Actions shaped by Deeply held values and principles

Completing on time

Deep

ly he

ld v

alue

s an

d pr

incip

lesD

ensity

Observations:

Actions shaped by Deeply held values and principles are not coincident with motivations for Completing on time. This is evident with the very low probability of stories being signified in the area marked at A’ on the landscape. Situations do not co-occur in the areas marked by the pink highlights below (A’ area on the landscape).

A’

10©2014 Cognitive Edge. All rights reserved. Strictly confidential.

Doing it right v An intense drive to achieve: contrast from Neg & Strongly Neg (left) and Pos & Strongly Pos (right)

20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0 20 40 60 80

020

4060

80100

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

Negative and Strongly Negative only Positive and Strongly Positive only

Observation: With the Negative landscape (on left), we see an elongated pattern at area A where NOT Doing it Right runs the gambit of An intense drive to achieve. We also see a shift in area B with Doing it right moving more toward An intense drive to achieve.

With the Positive landscape (on right) in area C, Doing it right and NOT An intense drive to a achieve is the same pattern we found on page 94 with all stories present. In general, this landscape is very similar to the overall landscape on page 94.

Doing it Right

An in

tens

e dr

ive to

ach

ieve

Density

Doing it Right

An in

tens

e dr

ive to

ach

ieve

Density

AB

C

Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.

Managing for serendipity

1

23

4

Question capabilty

Question understanding


Current explorations in practice ❖ Changing the narratives of the past to

enable a new narratives of the future.❖ Real time decision support in conditions

of uncertainty using extended human sensor networks. Creating networks for ordinary need that can be activated for extraordinary purpose

❖ From anticipation to triggering anticipatory awareness

❖ Measuring wellness as dispositions ❖ Engagement as advocacy: What we do to

create more stories like these, fewer like those


“The facts are absolutely clear. There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, extrinsic tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivation”

New Scientist 9th April 2011 pp 40-43

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes

Goodhart’s Law

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure

Strathern variation


The nature of complexity❖ Networks for ordinary purpose activated for

extraordinary need using polymorphic signifier sets❖ Oral history in schools❖ Field staff notebooks❖ The Patient Journey❖ Public transport❖ Shadowing experience❖ Church & cultural groups

❖ Enables imperfect and partial copying❖ Attitudinal measures as lead indicators❖ Anticipatory audit & awareness❖ Changing habits by multiple small reinforcement

including the use of exaptation❖ Testing & modifying cultural affinity & empathy


Nine factors in scaling❖ Boundaries❖ Constraints❖ Granularity❖ Gradient❖ Catalysts❖ Micro-diversity❖ Parable form narratives❖ Cycle-time stability❖ Measureable coherence

2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 3_Wim Thomas

Economy & Finance

Transcript of 2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 3_Wim Thomas