20141119 CEP lunchtime seminar

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Synopsis: The energy system has historically been characterised as “mature”, displaying small, incremental technological improvements and low levels of both public and private research intensity. However, over the past decade this situation has been changing, illustrated by significiant increases in public and private energy R&D expenditure across many countries in reaction to strengthening concerns around fossil fuel prices, climate change and energy security. These challenges have driven the search for alternative sources of energy, as well as more efficient ways of extracting and consuming fossil fuels. As support grows for energy innovation so too does the need to understand how energy innovation unfolds with a view to ensure that the vast public and private resources currently being committed to innovation in this sector are being deployed effectively. In this context the talk outlines the Energy Strategy Fellowship’s current research project, which seeks to map out systems of energy innovation for a range of countries and technologies, measure the effectiveness of these different arrangements and compare different approaches with a view to learning lessons for successful energy research and innovation policy. Following a discussion of the drivers that have led to this renaissance in energy innovation and the project’s research objectives, the talk introduces the different technology and country case studies under examination, the methods employed and some of the innovation theory that underpins this research. Finally, the talk explores some emerging issues in the field of energy technology innovation the project engages with, such as the globalised nature of energy innovation, the role of the private sector and energy innovation outside ‘Western’ countries. Biography: Matthew has worked as a Research Associate within the RCUK Energy Strategy Fellowship team at Imperial College since 2012. His research examines the types of conditions responsible for accelerating the development and deployment of energy technologies with the potential to address critical challenges facing the global energy sector, such as climate change, energy security and fuel poverty. This work examines the development of a handful of promising, high-profile energy technologies across a variety of different countries worldwide to understand what makes for an effective energy innovation system. Prior to this he undertook his PhD thesis at the University of Leeds from 2009 exploring how the application of innovative energy business models could help to drive forward sustainability transitions.

Transcript of 20141119 CEP lunchtime seminar

  • 1. Innovation in the energy sector:Paradigm-busting or paradigm-reinforcing?CEP lunchtime seminar19 November 2014Matthew HannonResearch Associate - RCUK Energy Strategy Fellowship

2. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 3. RCUK Energy Strategy FellowshipPhase 1 - Synthesis of prospectus for research,skills and training needs across UK energylandscape Prospectus informs development of the Research CouncilsEnergy Programme. It was published in November 2013 andwill be maintained and updated until the end of the Fellowshipin 2017. It responds to a recommendation from the RCs InternationalReview of Energy Research undertaken in 2010.Phase 2 - Research programme: theeffectiveness of systems of energy innovation The research programme will compare the effectiveness ofenergy innovation systems in a number of leading countries 4. The teamJim SkeaRCUK EnergyStrategy FellowAidan RhodesResearch FellowMatt HannonResearch AssociateRui HuPhD Researcher 5. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 6. Cumulative CO2 emissions are correlatedwith global temperaturesSource: IPCC2C3C4CtodayCancunAgreement2010IPCC 5thAssessmentReportTo remain lowerthan 2oC abovepre-industriallevels, globalemissions will needto be 40-70% lowerin 2050 than in2010 7. GHG emissions growth has accelerated in the last decadedriven by CO2 from fossil fuel combustionSource: IPCC 8. GHG emissions rise with income and populationbut are moderated by energy efficiency gainsSource: IPCC 9. ...but long-term energy decarbonisation has been reversedSource: IPCC 10. Stabilising the atmosphere means moving away frombusiness-as-usual regardless of how ambitious we are40-70% reductionSource: IPCC 11. There is still a lot of oil out there and its still affordableversus alternativesSource: IEA 12. Import dependence has also been rising in majoreconomiesSource: IEA 13. Energy scenarios and outlooks are diverging withresponse to climate change the biggest differentiatorOutlooksto 2040 14. Areas of agreement Energy demand will rise Energy demand has saturated in developed countries Energy demand could start to saturate in some emerging economies(e.g. China) by the late 2020sbut other economies may emerge totake their place Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the world energy systemno realphysical constraint on their supply The use of natural gas will expand Renewable energy output (wind, solar) will expand, but will notdominate the energy system Electricity will take an increasing proportion of demand 15. Areas of uncertainty Peaking (plateauing?) of oil Level of coal use could be down The role of natural gas in transport The role (if any) for biofuels declining role in successive outlookexercises Whether electric/H2-fuel cell vehicles take any significant market share The impact of energy efficiency on demand 16. Public sector energy RD&D spend has recovered,and is focusing increasingly on renewables and efficiency120100806040200-20-40-603025201510501974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009$/barrel 2012$bn 2012 USOtherRenewable EnergyNuclearFossil FuelsCrude oil priceSource: IEA 17. Private sector energy R&D has also recovered -but much of it is spent on oil and gas25201510502003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012bn USD2012Alternative EnergyUtilitiesElectricityOil & GasSource: derived from EU R&D Scoreboard 18. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 19. Research objectivesSystem of innovation: the elements and relationships which interact in theproduction, diffusion and use of new, and economically useful, knowledge(Lundvall, 1992)Overarching project aim: To better understand the effectiveness of energyinnovation systems rooted in different countries and centred on differenttechnologiesObjectives To map out systems of energy innovation for a range of countries andtechnologies To attempt to measure the effectiveness of these different arrangements To compare different approaches with a view to learning lessons forsuccessful energy research and innovation policy 20. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 21. Technology case studiesHeatpumpsSmartgridShalegasWindenergyWaveenergy 22. Technology case studies (continued) 23. Technology case studies (continued) 24. Technology case studies (continued) 25. Technology case studies (continued) 26. Technology case studies (continued) 27. Country case studies 28. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 29. The research plan1. Mapping systems of energy innovation through documentary analysisand field trips. System boundaries will emerge from the mappingexercise; different systems of innovation are associated with differenttechnologies. These might have sub-national and internationaldimensions.2. Development and analysis of innovation indicators covering all parts ofthe energy innovation chain3. Phases 1 and 3 will give rise to a set of hypotheses and findings, whichwill be tested through structured interviews and re-interviews withexperts inside and outside the case study countries.4. A desk-based comparison of different approaches to energy innovationto tie together the findings. 30. Case study templatesTechnologies1. Technology description2. History of the technology narrative3. Deployment and resources4. Commercial players5. Environmental impacts andmanagement6. Social acceptability andcommunity impacts7. Innovation activity8. Roadmaps and scenariosCountries1. Population and economy2. Geography and climate3. Governance4. Education5. Environment and climate change6. Science and technology7. The energy sector8. The energy innovation system 31. Field trips: first wave early 2015Generic aspects (all countries): Science and innovation system Energy policy and technology Energy innovation systemTechnology specific aspects (selected countries): Narrative for technology development and deployment Mapping of technology innovation system Role of technology of innovation system actorsContacts through: FCO/BIS Science and Innovation Network; Other international contacts (e.g. IPCC)Outcomes: Refinement of country and technology case studies Pointers to the collection and analysis of innovation indicators 32. Innovation metrics Science, technology and innovation (STI) indicators serve as a proxy to reveal specificaspects of innovation systems, assess changes over time and drive policy debate.Input indicators ThroughputindicatorsOutput indicators Outcome indicatorsResearch anddevelopmentexpenditureHuman resources inscience andtechnologyScience and researchhubs, e.g. topuniversities, top thinktanks and topcorporate R&DinvestorsPublicationsPatentsTrademarks anddesignsInternational flows ofresearchersGovernment budgetsfor demonstration,deployment andpublic procurement ofnew products orservices% of innovative firmswith significantlyimproved or newproducts/services% of innovative firmswith significantlyimproved or newprocesses% of innovative firmswith neworganisationalpractices% of innovative firmswith new marketingExport and marketshares ofcommodities andservicesRevenues ofinternationaltechnology transfersLabour and energyproductivityEnergy mix and self-sufficiencyCO2, SOX and NOXemissions 33. Methodological challenges Comparability of data between countries: are we comparinglike with like? Data availability, e.g. private sector, variability acrosscountries Over-emphasis of metrics on particular elements of theenergy innovation system Identifying causality in a noisy policy/economiccontext..how do we know the success of technology Xwas influenced by factors Y & Z? 34. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 35. Theoretical underpinningsInnovation systems Innovation as a complex evolutionary process shaped by a wide variety ofsystem components (e.g. actors, institutions, resources etc.) and dynamics (e.g.positive feedbacks, accumulation/depreciation of stocks etc.) Scale of analysis split between national, regional, sectoral and technologyinnovation systemsEnergy innovation Focus on distinctive aspects of energy innovation systems, e.g. capital intensity,longevity of capital stock, politicisation of energy etc.Socio-technical transitions Concerned with the conditions that result in a shift from socio-technical systemstate to anotherWider innovation theory Business and management literature e.g. Porter hypothesis, disruptiveinnovation, open innovation etc. 36. The energy innovation systemGrubler & Wilson (2014) 37. Outline Introduction Context Research objectives Case studies Methods Theory Emerging issues 38. Emerging issues The globalised nature of energy innovation systems Energy innovation systems outside Europe/North America/Anglophonecountries The role of the private sector and public-private engagement in shapingthe development and performance of innovation systems The influence of the physical/engineering aspects of energy technologies:e.g. system vs. component; commodity vs. site-assembled The roles of: learning by doing; transfer of non-codified knowledge (e.g.training and human mobility); secondary research (learning by osmosis) Measuring innovation system performance to inform innovation policy andinstitutional design 39. Thank you!W: http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/rcukenergystrategyE: [email protected]: @ES_Fellowship