20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
-
Upload
chatzianagnostou-george -
Category
Documents
-
view
225 -
download
0
Transcript of 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
1/17
Roland Berger Study – Executive Summary
Athens, November 2014
Competitiveness of the
Greek electricityintensive industry
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
2/17
120141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O
N F I D E N T I A L
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It maynot be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness
and accuracy of the statements made in this document.
© Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Contents Page
A. Current situation and project objectives 2
B. Analysis of the market prices 4
C. Analysis and comparison of the electricity markets 12
D. Recommendations 14
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
3/17
220141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O
N F I D E N T I A L
A. Current situation and
project objectives
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
4/17
320141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
Current situation and main project objectives
Analysis about the competitiveness of the Greek electricity intensiveindustry and possible measures for improvement
Source: Unicen, Roland Berger
A CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECT OBJECTIVES
Current situation
> Strong GDP decline of Greek economy, hascritically affected the production system of the
country> The Greek electricity intensive industry suffers inthe last years from increasing taxes, regulatedfees and continuous increasing electricity prices
> Production costs, which strongly depend onelectricity price, are perceived by the Greekmarket players in comparison to other EUcountries as not competitive and as endangering
the Greek productivity and economy> Need for policies and governmental measures
that will lead to immediate and sustainedrecovery of the economy is more urgent thanever
Project objectives
> Analyzing the current pricing models (e.g.regulated RES fees, public sector fees, grid fees,excise duty etc.) and identify the final price paid bythe electricity intensive industries in the benchmarkcountries
> Analyzing and benchmarking the electricitymarkets in the three selected countries Germany,Italy and Spain
> Validation of the results of analysis by interviewingGreek, German, Italian and Spain industrial
consumers> Elaboration of possible adaption and adjustments
of the electricity system/pricing in Greece basedupon above findings.
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
5/17420141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
B. Analysis of the
market prices
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
6/17520141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
Starting point: Eurostat shows good competitive situation for Greekindustries – verification through Roland Berger necessary
Source: Eurostat
Electricity prices for industrial consumers (70 GWh – 150 GWh per anno)1)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Germany Greece Spain Italy
Taxes & Levies Network costs Energy & Supply
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS
Prices2) in 2013-S2 [ € /MWh] Electricity price evolution year end [ € /MWh]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009-S2 2010-S2 2011-S2 2012-S2 2013-S2
Greece Germany Italy Spain
1) Eurostat data for a consumption higher than 150 GWh is not available2) UNICEN: In case of Greece the price in 2013-S2 was 74 €/MWh, 62 €/MWH is the price for 2014-S1,
97,1
66,075,8
116,2
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
7/17620141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
Price components in selected countries comparable – Example Germany
Source: VEA, BDEW; Stand: 05/2014
Annual consumption < 20 GWh (Medium-Voltage: 100kW/1.600h - 4.000kW/5.000h)
Generation & supply
CHP Cogeneration
Interruptible services
Concession
§19 StromNEV
Excise duty
RES (Renewables)
Offshore liabilities
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
8/17720141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
Price discount of more than 50% in the classical price components
124,5
Greece
20%
46%
54%
161,2
52%
48%
146,2
40%
Germany
60%
SpainItaly
140,6
80%
Price without taxes and levies Non refundable levies
Small industrial consumers Electricity intensive consumers with discounts1)
Executive summary for classical discount in selected countries – prices 2014 [ €/MWh]
Greece
5%
17%
59,5
92%
8%
74,8
53,7
85%
15%
61,9
SpainItaly
83%
95%
Germany
Source: Roland Berger analysis
1) industrial consumer with a consumption profile not flexible, annual consumption higher than 150 GWh; 2) Average of 3 countries - excl. Greece
Ø 149.12)
Ø 62.72)
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS – CLASSICAL DISCOUNTS
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
9/17820141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
Greek electricity intensive Industries are paying between98 and 62 €/MWh – RES discount with the highest impact
Source: Roland Berger analysis, UNICEN
Electricity prices for Greek electricity intensive Industries [ €/MWh]
Components 150KV level normal tariff 150KV level tarif discount
Prices in €/MWh 0,5 GWh < C ≤ 13 GWh 13 GWh < C ≤ 50 GW h 50GWh < C ≤ 1000GWh 50GWh < C ≤ 1000GW h
Energy & supply 83,20 69,70 58,00 46,00
CO2 4,90 4,90 4,60 3,40
Grid fees 11,20 11,20 3,50 3,50
Sum (1) 99,30 85,80 66,10 52,90
RES (Renewables) 12,80 2,30 2,20 2,20PSO( Public services) 6,90 4,14 4,14 4,14
Excise duty 5,53 5,45 2,80 2,70
Sum (2) 25,23 11,89 9,14 9,04
Total 124,53 97,69 75,24 61,94
Price Structure 2014customers connected to 20KV
Price without taxes and levies
Non refundable levies
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS – CLASSICAL DISCOUNTS (Backup)
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
10/17920141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C O N F I D E N T I A L
High additional compensation like interruptible services and specialTSO-agreements in Italy and Spain
Prices after classical discounts1)
1) industrial consumer with a consumption profile not flexible, annual consumption higher than 150 GWh; 2) Average of 3 countries - excl. Greece
Possible additional compensation (Interruptible etc.)
52,0
8% 47,5
Germany
22%
47,7
Italy
91%
9%
78%
92%85%
15%
GreeceSpain
61,9
Source: Roland Berger analysis
Germany
5%
95%
Italy
74,8
83%
Spain
85%
61,9
15%8%
17%
Greece
59,5
92%
53,7
Price without taxes and levies Non refundable levies
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS – ADDITIONAL COMPENSATION
Executive summary for additional compensation in selected countries - prices [ €/MWh]
Ø 62.72)
Ø 49.12)
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
11/171020141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
Average pool prices of approx. 50 €/MWh – High price volatility up to50 €/MWh between peak and offpeak time in Italy
Source: Roland Berger analysis
March 3rd 2014 August 18th 2014
> Average price: 48,20 € /MWh
> Min price: 39,83 €/MWh
> Max price: 63,13 €/MWh
> Average price: 49,18 € /MWh
> Min price: 26,00 €/MWh
> Max price: 79,30 €/MWhΔ=23 € /MWhΔ=53 € /MWh
Italian pool prices – Examples
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS – FURTHER POSSIBLE REDUCTION (Backup)
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
12/171120141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
After taking discounts and compensations into account, Greekindustry has competitive disadvantage regarding electricity price
Source: Roland Berger analysis
Average electricity price1) for electricity intensive industries2) [ €/MWh]
97
116
76
66
54
75
60 62
4852
48
62
38 35
45
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Germany Italy Spain GreeceEurostat 2013-S2
Electricity price after discounts (2014)
Electricity price after additional compensation (2014)
Further possible price reduction (e.g. offpeak arangements) - Estimation
1) Offpeak prices during 24 hours are noticeable lower than average prices2) Industrial consumer with an annual consumption higher than 150 GWh; 3) Industrial consumer with an annual consumption higher than 70 GWh up to 150 GWh
3)
Comments
> Highest classical discount for electricityintensive industries in Germany
> Additional compensation e.g. interruptibleservices in Italy and Spain with high priceimpact for the local industry, in Germany with lessimpact
> Further price reduction possible, Greece withprice compensation by special night tariffs
> Greek electricity prices represents temporarydiscounts for 2014, uncertainness about further
support in 2015> Eurostat data are inadequate and misleading
for policy making purposes
> To create competitiveness in the Europeanmarket, governmental actions should be taken under consideration
B MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS – SUMMARY
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
13/171220141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
C. Analysis andcomparison of the
electricity markets
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
14/17
1320141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
German market with a fully liberalized market model and highestcompensation rate - Greek market still lacking behind
GREECE GERMANY ITALYSPAIN
Flexibilities and key market factors
1. Efficient marketstructure
Source: Euroconsultants; Roland Berger
Key market factors
3. Imports for selfconsumption
4. Bilateral contracts1)
5. Capacity payments
6. Overall discounts – compensations forElectricity IntensiveIndustries2) [ €/MWh]
Impact
2. Interruptible services
23 274) 47 123)
1) Bilateral contracts outside the pool between generators and consumers; 2) Estimation for 2014; 3) Uncertainness about further support in 2015 4) Estimation for 2013
C ELECTRICITY MARKET ANALYSIS - SUMMARY
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
15/17
1420141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
D. Recommendations
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
16/17
1520141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
Short term governmental actions can be taken immediately
What are the major recommendations? Result of the discussion about possible governmental actions
Shortterm
Longterm
Source: Roland Berger, Interview with Unicen
Maintain PPC discounts to HV electricity tariffs1
Implementation of interruptible services2
Adjustment of the non-energy costs to EU levels3
Allow virtual imports4
Market opening by replacement of mandatory pool5
TIMELINE
IMPACT ONCOMPETI-TIVENESS
IMPROVEMENT
High
Low
1 2
34
5
D RECOMMENDATIONS
-
8/20/2019 20141110 Unicen Press Conference Handout
17/17
1620141110_Unicen_Press_Conference_Handout.pptx
S T R I C T L Y C
O N F I D E N T I A L
Let's think:act!