2014 Technology

& IT conference 1

2014 Technology & IT Conference Current & future directions of technology in the sector

Rydges Sydney Airport | 24 March 2014

Head Consultant, Management & Technology | GDN consulting firm

Systems Integrations The Next Horizon

2014 Technology

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Global risks

Megatrends

Content

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Content | Other reference

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global risks

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2014 Global Risks Map

Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2013 / 2014 (World Economic Forum)

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Top 10 Global Risks

Environment /

sustainability

Financial /

Economic

Geo-political

Societal

Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2013 / 2014 (World Economic Forum)

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sustainability

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Human population

Biosphere

regeneration

Human

consumption

~ 1.3 times

what

the planet

can sustain

Net loss

28%

Steadily growing since mid 80’s

Source: Simms A., NEF (New Economics Foundation), London

Earth Profit & Loss 2014 based on Averaged human lifestyle

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Resources & multi-polar geopolitics dichotomy

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Real world & economic dichotomy

“Irredeemable money has almost invariably

proved a curse to the country employing it”

Fisher, I. 1911, The purchasing power of money

Economy Real World

The continuous economic growth delusion

fiat (irredeemable) money system

M.V = Pr.Q Quantity Theory of Money

I = Po.A.T Ehrlich / Holdren equation

or P = M.(V/Q)

Derived Theory of Inflation

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A way out of the monopoly conundrum?

Economy Real World

M.V = Pr.Q Quantity Theory of Money

I = Po.A.T Ehrlich / Holdren equation

M.V = Pr.Q I = Po.A.T

Re-link currency to a tangible specie (Unit of Sustainable Biosphere)

ey

M = monetary mass in circulation

V = velocity of money in circulation

Pr = price index

Q = quantity consummed expressed in physical unit

a = fixed exchange rate

U = unit of sustainable biosphere

R = regenerated biosphere

I = impact of human activity

B = biosphere size

Rj = biosphere regenerative index

Po = human population size

A = affluence factor expressed in currency

T = technological factor expressed in CO2 emmission

M.V = Pr.Q

M = a.U

U = R-I

R = B.Rj

I = Po.A.T

The top-down equivalent of a new Bretton-Woods

Recent G20 proposal failures (Zhou Xiaochuan)

“Too many Chefs in the kitchen”

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Disconnected physical & financial worlds

ETR (Ecological tax reform)??

EIA (Environmental impact assessment)??

Inter-sector policies, new institutions, legal reform?? IM (Industrial metabolism) ??

VA (Voluntary agreement) ??

EE (Ecological economics) ??

Climate change

Financial crises

Social instabilities

Major fiscal imbalances

Ineffective multi-polar geopolitics

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climate change

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The 2º C tipping point

2 x unstoppable feedback loops kick-in:

Deep ocean Methane release

Permafrost CO2 release

°C

Eq CO2

2°C

Runaway CC

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How are (24 x ) biggest emitters tracking?

Latest estimate 3.7º C increase

Source: Climate Action Tracker | Climate Analytics, Ecofys Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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Potential

reforestation

Food growing

Habitable

zones

Inhabitable

deserts

Inhabitable floods, droughts

extreme weather

Land lost to

rising waters (2m assumption)

a map of climate change risks

The World 4ºC warmer

Source: New Scientist Climate Change Report, 2009

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Climate change risks & demographics

• Since 2008, more people in cities than rural areas

• 95% cities located in climate change risk zones

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Climate change risks & geo-political instabilities

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ageing world

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Ageing population & major fiscal imbalance risks Worker (15 to 64) to Retiree (64+) dependency ratios

Source: UN, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 2013

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New market

megatrends

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be where the client wants you to be when they want you to be there

The rise of multi-channeling (Clicks & Bricks)

& direct sourcing (personal tailored manufacturing)

Disruptive global digital neo-economics including conventional barter resurgence

New global redeemable digital currencies & economic dematerialization

Generalised crowdsourcing along the entire value chain

3D printing manufacturing revolution & IP challenge

3D printing of live tissues & organs (Bio-printing)

The new Maslow’s

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Industrial metabolism & economic dematerialization

P&L (US$ b)

Net sales 100

GP 25

Labor 8

Marketing 5

Others 7

Tot Exp 20

NIBT + 5

Balance sheet (US$ b)

Assets 70

Current 20

Fixed 50

Liabilities & Equity 70

Current 10

Long-term 30

Equity 30

Physical accounting measured in physical units

Triple Bottom Line Planet People Profit

Product research, recycling, energy needs

Build-To-Order 3D printing manufacture

Blurred demand & supply chains

Shortening product lifecycle

Crowdsourcing research

Reclaimed / recycled construction material

Recycling-conscious building design

On-site renewable energy sources

Low energy consumption

Waste reduction

Telecommuting

Carbon-neutral

Modal shift to low-carb co-transportation

“Predictive forecast”-driven logistics

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The rise of agile micro internationals

& SOLO* | SOHO** | SME***

Small is Beautiful

~0.5b businesses globally, but…

By 2020 4.6b global workers, 88% (4b) in knowledge-based jobs

A new type of workforce freelance-able, on-demand & independent

Evolving industry organizations with deeper involvement in members’ affairs

* SOLO = Solo-Entrepreneur

** SOHO = Small Office Home Office

*** SME = Small & Medium Enterprises

88% (4b)

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The rise of the machines 1/3

Courtesy: GE, 2012, Industrial Internet White Paper

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The rise of the machines 2/3

The Internet of Things IPv4 (4.3b addresses) IPv6 (3% in 2014)

Big Data Analytics Deep domain expertise & learning algorithms

merging genomics & informatics

6th level normalization & above

Mobile connecting

technology

Smart information

Smart machines

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Rise of the machines 3/3 Healthcare perspective

* Source: 2011, OECD Health Data, Health Spending Per Capita by source of funding

US$ 731b

Estimated global

healthcare system

current inefficiencies

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Metropolis & Mobility

The integrated

new megacity

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Evolving from net emitters to carbon-capture mega-systems

Sustainable autonomous flexible re-configurable buildings

Integrated vertical urban farming (edible + bio-fuels)

The rise of the sustainable integrated megacities

95% cities located in climate change risk zones

Ideal candidates to tackle the issue

1. 40% water needs reduction

2. Biosphere size increase

3. Carbon-capture system

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population & mobility asynchronous trends

The hyper-connected World Connectedness + telecommuting

Decrease in travel

Sydney – London in 2 nanoseconds

P = physical movement

I = mass of information in circulation

IP f1

Higher demand for small

fuel-efficient cars or for

no cars at all

(Millennial cliff)

46%

* Source: 2012 New York Times Research Millennial preferences

18~24 y-o US drivers choose

access to the Internet

over owning a car *

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Urban mobility the new horizon

• Congestion-free cities replace end-users as the new automotive clients

• Integrated mass individual + public urban transport

• Self-guided vehicles for ageing population

• Fluid mechanics applied to traffic flows

• End of the ubiquitous traffic light

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Real life example | Commercial driverless cars

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3HdqeZMNco

5 x US driverless laws since Dec 2013

CES 2014 9 x driverless models

Google new driverless economics

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Living space

The integrated

ALIVE building

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Integrated building | Embedded robotics

Integration between mobile & fixed (security, lifts, doors) systems

Royal North Shore Hospital | St Leonards

http://youtu.be/w1zupfTftcY

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Integrated building | Inverted Info flow 1/2

The imminent end of the ubiquitous KVM (Keyboard, Video, Mouse)

Pervasive embedded sensor, data-collecting & connecting technology

Integrating systems by connecting medical sensors to applications

The Old KVM paradigm

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Integrated building | Inverted Info flow 2/2

The advent of “Big Data Analytics” & “smart information”

“Smart information” routes itself to the right users

The entire building becomes a workstation

The building is “alive” & cares

NUI* & embedded VR / AR**

* NUI = Natural User Interface

** VR = Virtual Reality AR = Augmented Reality

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Integrated building | The new (G) NUI*

* GUI = Graphical User Interface NUI = Natural User Interface

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Real life example | Thomas Holt Kirrawee site

• Integrated self-aware, self-healing & self-maintaining “alive” building

• Technology & IT consulting involved at pre-design stage

• High, subacute & palliative focus in line with trends

• Client needs & information flow drive architecture

• Residents & workforce friendly design

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Aged-friendly modular stair-less radial design

self supported living subacute end-of-life (same room)

Existing Homes | Rebuild or retrofit

Or ….

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Existing Homes | Rebuild or retrofit… Or? Wearable exoskeletons

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Summary Recommendations

Marketing / Business Development

1. Identify & engage with your audiences experientially & digitally (public, clients, contacts, workforce, partners)

2. Shift from informational website to integrated transactional multi-device online presence

3. Align / Embed with your business development & marketing strategies

4. Think 360º client solutions not just RESIDENTIAL

5. Diversify both service offering & funding base

Organizational / Operational perspective

1. Scrutinize your entire value chain including organizational framework & its integration with your supply chain

2. Consider strategic in & out-sourcing across all functions | lobby / leverage of your industry association/s

3. If you’re yet to do so, shift to paperless fully electronic operations across all functions

Assets

1. Be strategic & forward looking Your building will be around for decades

2. Involve your IT & technology people at design brief stage

3. Think laterally & literally outside the square

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