2014: Post Election Analysis

ELECTION OVERVIEW

2

v  Context

v  The Results: What happened? v  The Reasons: Why it happened?

v  The Future: What does it mean going forward?

Mood Of The Country

DESPITE IMPROVING ECONOMY…

8

9.5%

7.8%

5.9%

2010 2012 2014

Unemployment rate (Sept.)

1,184 1,417

1,981

2010 2012 2014

S&P 500

146 145

168

2010 2012 2014

S&P/Case-‐Shiller U.S. Home Price Index

(Aug.)

Nov. 1 Nov. 5

Oct. 29

Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014

4

During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

Will stay the same

Will get worse

Will get better

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 8-‐12, 2014

…PERCEPTION ECONOMY IS STAYING THE SAME

Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown.

45%

38%

32% 31% 27%

17% 23%

29% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28%

9%

28%

18% 21%

24%

42%

34%

24% 25% 26% 24%

20% 24%

34%

33%

49% 47% 48%

38%

42% 46%

48% 47% 48% 51%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Oct 2012

Dec 2012

Jun 2013

Jul 2013

Sept 2013

Oct 2013

Oct 2013

Dec 2013

Mar 2014

Apr 2014

Jun 2014

Sept 2014

Oct 2014

AND AMERICANS REMAIN IN A FUNK

8

65%

61%

63%

29%

32%

30%

Oct. 2014

Oct. 2012

Oct. 2010

Dissatisfied Satisfied

% who are … with the way things are going in this country today

33%

44%

54%

21%

13%

8%

Oct. 2014

Oct. 2012

Oct. 2010

Poor Excellent/good

% saying the nation’s economic conditions are…

Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014

AND MORE SO IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES

8

22%

74%

Arkansas

32%

59%

Colorado

32%

62%

Florida

32%

66%

Georgia

31%

65%

Iowa

23%

73%

Kansas

28%

68%

North Carolina

30%

68%

Virginia

Generally going in the right direction

Seriously off on the wrong track

Do you think things in this country today are:

Source: 2014 Exit Polls

Favorability

6

OBAMA STILL MORE POPULAR THAN CONGRESSIONAL PARTIES, BUT NOT BY MUCH

Source: Exit Poll Data, ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Oct 23-‐26, 2014, CBS News Poll, Oct 23-‐27, 2014

43% 42%

Job Approval

44%

29% 21% 44%

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Barack Obama

MORE AMERICANS FOLLOWED NEWS ABOUT EBOLA THAN THIS YEAR’S POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS

8

Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data

51%

59%

This year's political campaign

News about Ebola

Extremely/very closely

The Results: What Happened

SENATE: PRE-‐ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY

Democrats: 53* Republicans: 45

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

Source: CNN 10 *Two independents caucus with Democrats

SENATE: POST-‐ELECTION – REPS GAIN SEVEN SEATS SO FAR

Democrats: 45 Republicans: 52

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH Ernst (R): 52% Braley(D-‐i): 44%

Cotton (R): 57% Pryor(D-‐i): 39%

Tillis(R): 49% Hagan(D-‐i): 47%

Source: CNN 11

Sullivan (R): 49% Begich (D-‐i): 45%

Gardner (R): 50% Udall (D-‐i): 45%

Rounds(R): 51% Weiland (D): 29%

Capito (R): 62% Tennant (D): 34%

Landrieu (D): 42% Cassidy (R): 41% RUN OFF

Daines (R): 58% Curtis(D): 40%

Warner(D-‐i): 49% Gillespie (R): 48%

HOUSE OVERVIEW: OVERALL 9 SEAT REPUBLICAN GAIN SO FAR – WILL PROBABLY INCREASE

10

Democrats Republicans

Pre-‐Elec(on 193 242

Gains / Losses +8 -‐8

Results 201 234

Democrats Republicans

Pre-‐Elec(on 199* 233*

Results** 174 242

2014

2012

Source: CNN

**19 RACES STILL UNDECIDED *Does not add up to 435 due to vacancies

GUBERNATORIAL RACES IN PLAY

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

Source: CNN 13

36 governorships contested

GUBERNATORIAL PARTY SHIFTS

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

Source: CNN 14

*Dark Gray indicates too-‐close-‐to-‐call races

Walker (I): 48% Parnell (R): 47%

Hutchinson (R): 55% Ross (D): 42%

Rauner (R): 51% Quinn (D-‐i): 46%

Shumlin (D-‐i): 47% Miln (R): 45%

Hogan (R): 54% Brown (D): 45%

Wolf (D): 55% Corbett (R): 45%

Baker (R): 48% Coakley (D): 47%

INCUMBENT SCORECARD

9

House Members Senators Governors Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats

Steve Southerland (R-‐FL)

Joe Garcia (D-‐FL) Mark Pryor (D-‐AR) Tom Corbett (R-‐PA) Pat Quinn (D-‐IL)

Vance McAllister (R-‐LA)

John Barrow (D-‐GA) Mark Udall (D-‐CO)

Bill Enyart (D-‐IL) Kay Hagan (D –NC)

Brad Schneider (D-‐IL)

Mary Landrieu (D – LA)*

Steven Horsford (D-‐NV)

Carol Shea-‐Porter (D-‐NH)

Tim Bishop (D-‐NY)

Dan Maffei (D-‐NY)

Pete Gallego (D-‐TX)

Nick Rahall (D-‐WV)

Source: NPR

*Forced into a run-‐off elec(on

The Reasons: Why it Happened

13

“THE ECONOMY” IS #1 ISSUE AND FAVORS REPUBLICANS

Source: 2014 Exit polls

Economy 45% (+2)

Health Care

25% (+20)

Illegal Immigra(on

14% (+48)

Foreign Policy 13% (+12)

VOTERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY

Very worried 37%

Somewhat worried 41%

Not too worried 18%

Not at all worried 4%

18

How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year?

78% are somewhat or very worried


VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE LIVES OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF AMERICANS

19

22% 27%

48%

Better than life today About the same Worse than life today

Do you expect life for the next generation of Americans to be:

Total Dem Rep

Better than life today

22% 68% 31%

Worse than life today

48% 29% 68%

About the same

27% 60% 39%


17

WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE: OBAMA IN SIMILAR SITUATION AS HIS PREDECESSOR AT SECOND MID-‐TERM ELECTION

63% 63% 57%

42% 37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Clinton (1998)

Reagan (1986)

Eisenhower (1958)

Obama (2014)

G.W. Bush (2006)

Job Approval Ra(ngs for Prior Presidents in October of Second Year of 2nd Term

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

18

OR WERE WE HERE BEFORE: 2014 LOOKS A LOT LIKE 2010

Source: 2006, 2010 & 2014 exit polls

2006 (Bush)

vs. 2014 (Obama)

Vote In Opposi(on To Sicng President

Vote In Support Of Sicng President

Job Approval Of Sicng President

33%

19%

44%

36%

22%

43%

2010 (Obama)

37%

24%

45%

OBAMA’S UNPOPULARITY DRAGS DOWN DEMOCRATS

36

Source: NBC News

Obama Approval Dem % of vote Difference Who Won

Illinois 50% 53% 3 Democrat

Michigan 50% 55% 5 Democrat

Minnesota 47% 53% 6 Democrat

Maine 47% 32% -‐15 Republican

North Carolina 43% 47% 4 Republican

Georgia 43% 45% 2 Republican

New Hampshire 43% 52% 9 Democrat

Colorado 43% 45% 2 Republican

South Carolina 42% 39% -‐3 Republican

Virginia 40% 49% 9 Democrat

Iowa 39% 44% 5 Republican

Mississippi 38% 39% 1 Republican

Kentucky 35% 41% 6 Republican

South Dakota 345 29% -‐5 Republican

Arkansas 31% 39% 8 Republican

SENATE VOTE: FOR OBAMA OR AGAINST HIM

19

5%

10%

14%

19%

11%

18%

18%

8%

15%

19%

10%

9%

19%

West Virginia

Kentucky

New Hampshire

North Carolina

Colorado

Michigan

Louisiana

Kansas

Iowa

Georgia

Arkansas

Alaska

US

47%

40%

34%

37%

29%

30%

43%

43%

32%

36%

40%

31%

33% -‐14

-‐22

-‐30

-‐17

-‐17

-‐35

-‐25

-‐12

-‐18

-‐18

-‐20

-‐30

-‐42

Vote In Opposition To Obama Vote To Support Obama Net

Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data

Dissatisfaction

ALMOST EIGHT IN TEN VOTERS SELDOM OR NEVER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT

26

Just about always, 3%

Most of the time,

17%

Only some of the time, 60%

Never, 18%

How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?

79% trust the government at most only some of the time

Source: MSNBC 2010 Exit Poll Data

Turn Out

PRELIMINARY TURNOUT NUMBERS ARE WAY DOWN FROM 2010 AND 2012

28

64%

40.9%

58%

36.6%*

2008 2010 2012 2014

*2014 number is an estimate

Source: Five Thirty Eight

TURNOUT INCREASED IN SOME COMPETITIVE STATES BUT DECREASED IN OTHERS

29

Source: Five Thirty Eight

Electorate

ELECTORATE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND LESS MODERATE THAN ELECTIONS IN RECENT HISTORY

23

Source: TargetPointConsul(ng.com – Exit Poll Data, November 3, 2010

49%

53% 51% 50%

47% 48% 45% 46%

49% 46% 47%

50% 50% 49%

45% 48%

44%

39%

41% 40%

32% 30%

32%

28%

36%

35% 33% 34%

30%

36%

34% 31%

29%

34% 33% 32% 34%

41%

35% 37%

20% 17% 17% 18% 17% 17% 18% 19%

21% 18%

20% 19% 20% 17%

21% 20% 22%

20%

25% 23%

Moderates Conservatives Liberals

SLIGHT REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE

Source: 2014 Exit Polls 25

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Democrat 37% 38% 39% 36% 38% 35%

Independent 26% 26% 29% 28% 29% 28%

Republican 37% 36% 32% 36% 32% 36%

Party Split Even D+2 D+7 Even D+6 R+1

27

SIGNIFICANTLY OLDER ELECTORATE. SENIORS SWUNG TO REPUBLICAN PARTY


Under 30 Vote

2008 (18%)

2010 (11%)

2012 (19%)

2014 (13%)

Democratic 63% 57% 60% 54%

Republican 34% 40% 37% 43%

Spread D+29 D+17 D+23 D+11

65+ Vote

2008 (15%)

2010 (23%)

2012 (16%)

2014 (22%)

Democratic 49% 38% 44% 42%

Republican 48% 59% 56% 57%

Spread D+1 R+21 R+12 R+15

While youth vote remained Democratic, young voters largely stayed home

Large senior vote went Republican


32

MINORITY TURNOUT DOWN AS WELL

Race Breakdown

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

White 77% 79% 74% 78% 72% 75%

Black 12% 10% 13% 10% 13% 12%

Hispanic/LaLno

8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8%

LaLno House Vote 62% DemocraLc 36% Republican

TEA PARTY PLAYS ROLE IN ELECTIONS


32

Overall U.S. Tea Party Support: 33%

New Hampshire 30%* California 28% Arkansas 33%*

<33

South Carolina 41%* Louisiana 37%*

Iowa 36%* Mississippi 36%* Georgia 36%* New York 35% Kansas 33%*

Kentucky 33%*

33+

*Denotes 2014 Senate Race Exit Poll Data

Electoral Map

ELECTORAL MAP FAVORED REPUBLICANS

8

2012 Presidential results

2014 Senate map had many Democrats defending seats in

“red” states

What The Public Wants?

HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS

2004 2008 2012 2014

Government should do more to solve problems

46% 51% 43% 41%

Government is doing too many things better left to

businesses and individuals

49% 43% 51% 54%


Views of Government

HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Affordable Care Act


25% 21%

48%

Did not go far enough

Was about right

Went too far

Do you think the 2010 Federal Health Care Law:

HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Climate Change


40%

Yes 58%

No 40%

DEM REP

Yes 70% 29%

No 14% 84%

Do you think climate change, also known as global warming, is a serious problem?

HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS

2012 2014

Offered a chance to apply for legal status

65% 57%

Deported to the country they came from

28% 39%

ImmigraLon

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:


HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS AborLon


23%

29% 26%

17%

Legal in all cases

Legal in most cases

Illegal in most cases

Illegal in all cases

52%

Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be…

Looking Forward to 2016

LOOKING FORWARD: WHAT’S AT STAKE IN 2016

45

All 435 seats will be up for election once again.

House:

Senate: Republicans Democrats

52* 45*

+7 -‐

34 seats will be contested. Republicans will be defending 24 of those seats while Democrats will be defending 10.

Presidency:

*Does not add up to 100 because three races are still undecided

Democrats will afempt to retain control of the White House. Candidates will seek to become the 45th president of the United States.

40

For more informa(on, please contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])

2014: Post Election Analysis

News & Politics

Transcript of 2014: Post Election Analysis