2014 Mobile Trends Report

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BRIGHTSTAR INTELLIGENCE 2014 Mobile Trends Report JANUARY 2014 CES LAS VEGAS, NV

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Transcript of 2014 Mobile Trends Report

Page 1: 2014 Mobile Trends Report

B R I G H T S TA RINTELLIGENCE

2014 Mobile Trends Report

JANUARY 2014 CES LAS VEGAS, NV

Page 2: 2014 Mobile Trends Report

Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are

Bertolt Brecht

2014 MOBILE TRENDS REPORT

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2014 MOBILE TRENDS REPORT

About the Trend Report

Nothing moves like the speed of mobile. And this year, we will see rapid-fire changes as market dynamics collide with technology, creating a new world for manufacturers, carriers and retailers to compete in.

From Brightstar’s vantage point as a global leader in wireless products and services, we see changes emerging that are poised to transform the way we all conduct business. Our trends were identified and commented on by Brightstar’s global network of experts, validated by third party research and explored for the impact they will make on OEMs, carriers, retailers and even consumers in the future.

In all, we see eight major trends that are critical to understand and be ready for in 2014 and beyond. From product prices, to device lifecycles, to consumer shopping behaviors and preferences, the impacts will be wide reaching.

Our industry doesn’t change slowly – it leapfrogs. And we’re about to take the next, major jump.

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8 DRIVING TRENDS FOR 20141 Device Lifecycle is Shrinking

2 No-Contract Will Dominate

3 Buy-Back and Trade-In is a Must

4 Device Financing Catches On

5 Attachments Become Critical to Profitability

6 Connected Devices Flood the Marketplace

7 Consumers Blur the Line

8 The End of Subsidization is Coming

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1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING

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Trend OverviewSmartphones have the shortest product lifecycle of any product in consumer electronics:

Trend DriverOEMs are developing and cycling devices at a faster pace than ever with each generation adopting the latest carrier driven technologies, market-driven software developments and consumer driven features/enhancements. Additionally, in an attempt to capture niche drivenmarket share, the development of multiple models within the same price point is also trending among OEMs. With the Apple and Samsung iconic devices representing the top 10 postpaid smartphone spots which account for 60+% of total market share, the ability for all others to move any sizeable volume of product in the market is finite and ultra-competitive.

All of these conditions result in a glut of inventory in the market that creates a race to the bottom for OEMs and retailers to capture the attention of price sensitive consumers and ultimately driving the shrinking device lifecycle trend.

Shelf life has declined by almost 50% since 2005

Average shelf-life for some mobile phones is currently 8-10 months

1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING

Mobile phones can last as few as 4 short months on a retailers’ shelf

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Industry PerspectiveWhile the mobile phone is in the mature stage of the product lifecycle, its revenues and ASP continue to increase. This can be attributed in part to two main factors:

Market power of Apple andSamsung allows them to maintain high ASPs in an environment of low competition.

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As smartphones cannibalize other product lines (cameras, portable gaming, navigation, media players), they’re able to command a greater share of the consumers’ wallet.

2

APPLE

GOOGLE

MOTOROLA

HTC

OTHER

LG

SAMSUNG

Q4 2012 – Q3 2013 Prepaid/Postpaid Smartphones Only

44%

26%

0.7%

5%

6%

12%

7%

1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING

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There is a major impact for non-Apple and

Samsung manufacturers who are struggling to

stay relevant. Without consumer demand, product pricing can

tumble quickly.

OEMMAINTAIN PROFITS

CARRIERDRIVE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

CONSUMERFEWER OPTIONS

RETAILER HIGH RISK

Tier 1 carriers are trying to break consumers habit of upgrading to a new phone every 18 months to 2 years.

The big question for retailers and carriers is how do you pick the next winner. While going with Apple and Samsung is the safe bet today, consumers want to see more choices on the shelf…but that can be a costly endeavor if costs are high and product doesn’t turn quickly.

If retailers and operators continue to lose money on offering a larger product selection, they may reduce choice for consumers.

TREND IMPACT

1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING

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Brightstar Perspective

The shrinking life cycle creates a variety of pressures on overall profitability for Tier 2 and Tier 3 OEMs due to supply chain inefficiencies, promotional inequities, and brand awareness.

The ability to drive analysis and make decisions throughout the product lifecycle is critical. Brightstar has developed tools that use key indicators to identify product value at all points – allowing operators and retailers to make decisions earlier to move through declining product faster, ultimately reducing profit erosion.

Solutions like Virtual Inventory (VIP) or “endless aisle” combine technology with product selection and have proven to be very successful at retail. Brightstar’s VIP solution enables national retailers to offer product without having to range or own inventory in store.

1 DEVICE LIFECYCLE IS SHRINKING

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2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE

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Trend Drivers1) Better no-contract phone offerings

2) Better no-contract plans

3) Carrier interest in getting out of the postpaid subsidization game

Trend OverviewNo-contract is estimated to be 50% of market by the end of 2015.

• No-contract plans have seen 19% growth from 2011-2013.• No-contract plans now have a 37% share.

60 70 80 90

2013

2012

2011

NO-CONTRACT PLAN GROWTH

IN MILLIONS

2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE

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In 2013, T-Mobile made a game-changing play with their “Un-Carrier” strategy of replacing service contracts with phone leasing contracts, leading the industry toward a tipping point.

Industry PerspectiveNo-contract is driving the unit volume growth in mobile phones. With only a 37% category share in mobile, no contract is driving the entire 7% projected unit volume growth for mobile phones in 2013.

27.3

72.7

30.7

69.3

33.4

66.6

36.6

63.4

POSTPAID PREPAID

2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE

UNIT VOLUME (YEAR OVER YEAR)

2010 2011 2012 2013 (ESTIMATED)

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TREND IMPACT

Product that used to be contract only is now being

offered without one. While traditionally no-contract or

prepaid product has been devices later in the

lifecycle, now consumers demand the latest and

greatest regardless of plan. This could have a negative

impact on device value and end up reducing the

number of devices offered going forward.

The category and the consumer are changing and retail needs to adapt no-contract merchandising to these changes and maximize the potential of this new opportunity. Also, while the price for no-contract phones are increasing they are still not to the level of postpaid’s which could affect the categories dollar growth as no-contract begins to overtake postpaid’s share.

This could change the game. Having popular phone models appear in prepaid faster is a great benefit to the consumer but that means that the price for these still popular phones will be high. Many consumers want to consider no-contract as an option but they will need financing to be able to afford the phone along with the more affordable plan.

2 NO-CONTRACT WILL DOMINATE

OEMDEVICE VALUE

CARRIERCOMPETIT IVE PRICING

CONSUMERDEVICE AFFORDABIL ITY

RETAILER CATEGORY MANAGEMENT

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Carriers are plentiful in this category so there are lots of plan options for consumers. Carriers need to offer

competitive plans that are focused on pricing, not just services and they need to offer a range of phone options that appeal to this changing consumer. Tier 1 operators are now competing heavily with traditional no-contract

carriers which may reduce options in the future.

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3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST

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Trend DriversCertain devices are retaining their value much longer. Phones are not disposable anymore and people in secondary markets can own a popular phone, like the iPhone, at a much reduced price when it is used / refurbished.

Buy-Back & Trade-In programs create opportunities for consumers to replace and recycle old devices while helping to finance their next device.

Another driver for the trend is insurance replacements, which is becoming a popular service for mobile phones. Using recycled devices to meet consumer claims is critical for service profitability.

Trend OverviewMobile Buy-Back & Trade-In solutions have grown to the point where consumers are expecting it as part of the activation/upgrade process.

• Most devices are graded as C stock (61%) at time of trade-in, which typically nets a consumer $50.

• Trade-In is now a promotional strategy as well as a profit driver.

TRADE IN YOUR SMARTPHONE OR TABLET

GET UP TO A

$300IN STORE CREDIT

3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST

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SURPLUS

10

9

8

7

6

P5

4

3

P2

1

0

PR

ICE

QUANTITY BOUGHT & SOLD

DS1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 00

Industry PerspectiveWhile Buy-Back & Trade-In is a critical service offering, it has some concerning potential downsides. Some industry experts believe the influx of used and refurbished product could significantly drive down prices and profits, further shortening the product life-cycle, and slow down product innovation.

3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST

As supply increases, a surplus of the good is created. In order to combat this, prices must drop to drive demand to clear the surplus, driving down profitability.

S2

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TREND IMPACT

OEMs will experience increased demand as the consumer upgrade cycle shortens however if the

market becomes saturated with refurbished products and prices/profit fall, new

production innovations could decline as well.

Carriers are using trade-in programs to help retain customer loyalty, to drive promotional activities and to demonstrate corporate social responsibility by recycling or reusing devices.

Retailers must offer a trade-in program to compete with other retailers and the carriers.

Consumers receive cash or credit in exchange for their used devices, which can offset the cost of their new phones.

3 BUY-BACK & TRADE-IN IS A MUST

OEMINCREASE DEMAND

CARRIERDRIVE LOYALTY

CONSUMERSELF-SUBSIDY

RETAILERMUST PLAY TO COMPETE

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4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON

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Trend OverviewAs more consumers move to a no-contract model, they are realizing the true unsubsidized cost of their phones. With average prices for top tier smartphones at $550, they are looking for financing options.

• OEMs are offering financing programs: HTC & Motorola launched programs in 2013.• Retailers have programs: Amazon, Best Buy and Walmart all introduced financing options on select phones.• Movement to No-Contract is impacting the necessity of this model.

Industry PerspectiveFinancing is going to become a key service offering with the other changes in the market. Savvy consumers will compare various financing offers against each other to make decisions about their carrier, phone, and store.

• There are opportunities to expand financing solutions beyond handsets to include supplemental accessories and services resulting in incremental growth in basket and profit.

4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON

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TREND IMPACT

OEMs can use financing as a differentiator to try and gain additional market share in an

hyper competitive space.

Tier 1 carriers are following T-Mobile and offering consumers a device finance plan. Some believe that a focus on financing rather than providing a subsidy would be “transformative” for the industry.

All channels will need to offer this as an option for consumers if they want to remain a viable part of the mobile retail market. Retailers can set themselves apart with unique product bundles and complementary financing solutions.

Financing will become an integral part of the purchase decision process. More expensive devices, more accessories to buy and less subsidization means consumers will need financing in order to afford the products they desire.

4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON

OEMPRODUCT DIFFERENTIATOR

CARRIERTRANSFORMATIONAL

CONSUMERFINANCING A MUST

RETAILERGRAB YOUR SHARE

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Brightstar Perspective

A variety of financial services products are beginning to penetrate the category offering attractive consumer solutions that focus on increased ASPs & basket lift to supplement the profit squeezed device sale and drive incremental margin growth.

Financing will not be limited to handsets, but also can be used to drive increased accessory sales and services that will become critical to the profitability of the industry.

4 DEVICE FINANCING CATCHES ON

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5 ATTACHMENTS BECOME CRITICAL TO PROFITABILITY

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5 ATTACHMENTS BECOME CRITICAL TO PROFITABILITY

Trend Overview

The industry continues to be squeezed as a result of micro and macro issues at work including a demanding consumer population for price, function, and availability. Aggressive OEMs and retailers are learning how the puzzle pieces are coming together to optimize revenues and profitability through integrated strategic partnerships throughout the value chain.

• 400% basket lift can be achieved with the right mix of accessories, attached services, and financing solutions.

• Over 25% of consumers are adding handset protection to their devices.

• Mobile wireless accessory shipments to approach 170 million by 2018.

• Accessories are hot - Sales on wireless speakers jumped 175% in the US last year.

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Industry PerspectiveAs these varying trends begin to merge (no-contract, buy-back & trade-in, financing) onto each other, consumers are learning that smartphones are expensive investments that need to be protected and optimized for maximum benefit. As a result, industry players are seizing the opportunity to infuse profit solutions through comprehensive and integrated models that meet and exceed the savvy consumer needs. But there is risk in putting everything in this basket. Lack of new phone releases, sudden discontinuance of popular models as well as less consumers upgrading their handsets, all lead to a drop in the number of opportunity for attached sales.

5 ATTACHMENTS BECOME CRITICAL TO PROFITABILITY

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TREND IMPACT

Device OEMs need to develop innovative branded

accessories to ensure their share of the expanding

accessory market.

A new 2013 mobile loyalty audit revealed that only 13% of customers show the level of loyalty required to protect them from competitive offers and service disruptions.

Retailers must ensure they are offering the right accessories for their device portfolio and should consider offering a full range of value-added services (i.e.; insurance, handset protection, buy-back & trade-in).

As the smartphone becomes integral to many consumers’ lives, they are increasingly willing to pay for services and accessories that enhance their overall experience and satisfaction.

5 ATTACHMENTS BECOME CRITICAL TO PROFITABILITY

OEMVALUE IN ATTACHMENTS

CARRIERCUSTOMER LOYALTY

CONSUMERDEVICE PROTECTION

RETAILERREVENUE GROWTH

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Brightstar Perspective

Retailers, carriers and OEMs all have the opportunity to capitalize on the expanding profit pools created by demand for new accessory and service attachments.

The overall basket must get larger because of shrinking profit margins. Accessories, smart apps/accessories, insurance and subscription based services are a vital part of basket and margin enhancements.

5 ATTACHMENTS BECOME CRITICAL TO PROFITABILITY

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6 CONNECTED DEVICES FLOOD THE MARKETPLACE

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Trend OverviewMost of the focus in connected devices for smartphones has been wearables in the physical health space. Consumers will increasingly see their smartphones as tools for total lifestyle well-being. From improving techniques for self-treatment, developments in stress-detecting technologies and near-total smartphone penetration in many markets, consumers will lap up innovations that help track and improve overall well-being and lifestyle.

• Consumer interest in wearable fitness quadrupled in the last year.

• 75 Billion devices will be connected to the internet of things by 2020.

• The wearable tech market will reach $4.5B globally this coming year.

In addition, a vast number of up-and-coming innovative solutions both from a horizontal and vertically integrated perspective are making their way onto the scene; most leveraging smartphone technology via the iOS and Android platforms.

6 CONNECTED DEVICES FLOOD THE MARKETPLACE

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Industry Perspective“There's no reason to doubt that connected devices will soon be flooding the mass market. Technology with compact, connected sensors and actuators make their way onto everyday consumer electronics, household appliances, and on general infrastructure.”Tony Darova (Morgan Stanley, Business Insider)

6 CONNECTED DEVICES FLOOD THE MARKETPLACE

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TREND IMPACT

Need to determine what is a fad for early adopters and what has

mainstream staying power. They need to set the stage for how to

market these products as well as if and how they can reach and

educate the consumer. This may also lead to new OEMs being able to enter this space and become a

factor in mobile that may begin to challenge Apple and Samsung

with possible exclusive/strategic partnerships.

Carriers are currently providing the best spaces for displaying and educating consumers on these new devices with their interactive store formats. Big data operators have a lot to gain in this space, with any and all things connected to the Internet, that opens up more real-time data inventory to sell.

While ideas are limitless, consumer interest is finite. Obviously they can't all be a hit. The big challenge for this industry is trying to gauge consumer interest and understand how the consumer will learn about and shop the product. A big question is how can retailers effectively play in this space without losing their shirt on inventory. What will be considered valuable and what will supply chain and retail distribution look like for this new category?

Based on all of the emerging devices and connected devices, consumers will need a retail environment where they can ask questions and “play/ interact” with devices before they purchase them. They will need to find a way to feel comfortable with the new technology and understand it before they adopt.

6 CONNECTED DEVICES FLOOD THE MARKETPLACE

OEM DEMONSTRATE

LEADERSHIP

CARRIERCOMPETIT IVE ADVANTAGE

CONSUMERREQUIRE EXPERT ADVICE

RETAILERSMART PRODUCT RANGE

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Brightstar Perspective

Initially, operators will be better positioned to support connected devices. They have already started marketing connected and mhealth devices horizontally as add-ons to existing vertical services.

With platform-based APP development (iOS, Android) being the gateway to the development of so many devices, OEMs should look at driving innovation with start-up device manufactures to help them bring the next big thing to market.

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7 CONSUMERS BLUR THE LINE

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Trend Overview

70% of consumers said that they have a better customer experience when they can choose how they purchase.

72% of respondents expect to be able to research, shop and receive goods and customer services through whichever channel they choose. This figure rises to 83% amongst omni-enthusiasts.

15% of customers feel extremely satisfied that retailers provide a consistent experience across different channels.

In 2016 e-retail will account for 9% of total retail sales, up from 7% in 2011 & 2012.

Nearly half of shoppers (44%) said that they expect to purchase through more than one channel within five years’ time.

3/4 of participants surveyed claimed that being able to use different channels cohesively (in store, online, mobile) is important.

7 CONSUMERS BLUR THE LINE

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Industry PerspectiveRetailers are moving towards creating a seamless shopping experience whether in-store, online, or through mobile devices. Site-to-store delivery, online price match, and an interactive experience at retail are all driving omni-channel evolution.

Ensuring that customers can cost-effectively shop across multiple channels and still enjoy a consistent and cohesive experience must be a top consideration for retailers today.

7 CONSUMERS BLUR THE LINE

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TREND IMPACT

OEMS will benefit if retailers and carriers begin to offer a

wider device portfolio as virtual inventory and extended aisle options become available.

Carriers will need to evaluate the devices they choose to adopt into their networks as well as cultivate new service solutions to create differentiators that appeal to next gen shoppers.

While ideas are limitless, consumer interest is finite. Retailers can no longer operate their brick and mortar and .com businesses in silos, even in mobility. Retailers must move faster to offer a seamless experience.

As consumers experience consistent and memorable engagements across platforms, they will begin to seek out and reward those companies that deliver on these unique solutions and eventually come to demand it.

7 CONSUMERS BLUR THE LINE

OEMINCREASED PRODUCT

PORTFOLIO

CARRIERDIFFERENTIATION

CONSUMEREXPECTATION IS NOW

RETAILERSEAMLESS EXPERIENCE

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Brightstar Perspective

Full integration of online shopping solutions were inevitable and adopted successfully by many. The mobile experience continues to challenge many however large screen devices and better software solutions are starting to turn the tide with consumers as evidenced by 2013 mobile shopping.

• In 2013, over 23% of Black Friday and 17% of Cyber Monday online shoppers placed their orders from mobile phones (up 43% and 55% respectively from 2012), reinforcing the growing importance of mobile phones as a valid shopping platform.

The importance of executing a seamless omni-channel merchandising strategy within the retail market is of paramount importance.

Retailers will need to ensure that customer online, in-store and mobile experiences are consistent across platforms.

7 CONSUMERS BLUR THE LINE

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8 THE END OF SUBSIDIZATION IS COMING

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Trend Overview

Subsidies were used to kick-start and grow the market for mobile devices. Now that we’re nearing 100% mobile penetration in the US, subsidies don’t make sense for the carriers any more.

• Subsidies are common in the US. 63% of all sold devices are via a subsidized carrier contract. Globally however, unsubsidized phone plans are the global standard. Several carriers such as Telefonica and Vodaphone have stopping offering subsidies to new customers or have stopped offering subsidies altogether.

• While subsidies have helped carriers to lure in customers and lock them into long-term deals, they are also bottom-line killers that carriers have long said they would like to do away with.

Mobile phone penetration in the US is nearing 100%

Operators’ subsidized subscriber base is predicted to decline by 16% in the next 2 years

8 THE END OF SUBSIDIZATION IS COMING

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Industry Perspective"Is the subsidy-model definitely going away?" asked Pierre Alain Sur, leader of Price Waterhouse Coopers' global communications business.

It's hard to say at this point, but the trend is pointing in that direction.

Smartphones are becoming more durable, and innovation is slowing. Apple is still selling large amounts of the iPhone 4, a device that was launched two years ago.

All that's left is to change customers' mindset. Interestingly, consumers have no issue paying full price for tablets, which are essentially large smartphones with all of the same features outside of the functionality to place calls, but carriers have been using the subsidy model for phones since the beginning.

8 THE END OF SUBSIDIZATION IS COMING

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TREND IMPACT

Tier 2/3 OEMs are generally less expensive and have a

price advantage with no subsidy, assuming they can

compete technically.

Carriers can stand alone on the quality of their networks and the services they provide. Expect financing solutions to become more comprehensive and more complex as carriers look to further secure their subscriber bases. Carriers will focus on program specific enhancements to network services in order to build customer loyalty in new and innovative ways.

Expect retail to come to the table with accessory and device upgrade/ financing programs. Retailers will look to create unique programs that differentiate themselves both in the category and in the market.

As contracts come up for renewal and new programs hit the market, consumers will have an abundance of choices to develop a plan that works best for them. Look for consumers to express their wants and needs via social networks. All parties should be monitoring this closely to stay on top of consumer demand.

8 THE END OF SUBSIDIZATION IS COMING

OEMBRAND AWARENESS

AND LOYALTY

CARRIERLOYALTY GROWTH

CONSUMERABUNDANCE OF CHOICES

RETAILERDIFFERENTIATION

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Brightstar Perspective

The removal of subsidies could be a game changer. It removes a significant differentiator and forces each carrier to stand on its own merits.

OEMs will need to spend even more money to merchandise their products in store, in advertising and at POS as carriers will no longer participate in reducing the consumers purchase price.

Customers may look to financing solutions as phone costs continue to rise. They may also hold their phones for longer periods of time, potentially impacting the buy-back & trade-in market.

8 THE END OF SUBSIDIZATION IS COMING

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2014 MOBILE TRENDS REPORT

Retail DoorsRetail Doors

About Brightstar

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Source: © 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries

B R I G H T S TA RINTELLIGENCE

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CES LAS VEGAS, NV2014 MOBILE TRENDS REPORT