2014 Housing Forecast – Grayson Glaze, Alabama Center For Real Estate

March 13, 2014

GBAHB

2014 Housing Forecast Seminar

Grayson Glaze, CCIM, CPM

ACRE Executive Director

www. acre.cba.ua.edu ACRE

Since 1996 -‐ Formed by Alabama Legislative Act

Special Thanks to our Founding Partners


PROVIDE RELEVANT RESOURCES IN THE AREAS OF…. ACRE’s CORE PURPOSE

v  5-‐Year Window (‘09-‐’13) v  Annual Comparison (2013 vs 2012) v  Month – Latest Data (February 2014) v  Birmingham New Home Production

v  Housing Forecast

v  Economic Outlook

v  Potluck Thursday

v  Take Home ”Resources”

BIRMINGHAM

JANUARY 2011

v  62 Total New Home Sales compared 425 in Jan ‘08 v  14.1 Month of Supply (8.3 ‘08) v  YOY Sales down 35% v  YOY Permits down 5% v  YOY Starts down 25% v  YOY Avg Sales Down 15% v  2nd to Last of 5 Metro Market

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In Memory – Marshall O’Neil Photo at 2010 ACRE/GBAHB

VIP Party/Mike Wedgeowrh’s The Viridian

Count your Blessings… YOU survived


Inventory down only 15% since 2009 | Equilibrium = 21,580 units ALABAMA SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS


Inventory down 27% since 2009 | Equilibrium = 6,000+/-‐ units BIRMINGHAM SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS


Inventory down 58% since 2009 | Equilibrium = 500+/-‐ units BHAM NEW HOME SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS


Still 27% from 2006 Peak of 59,222 @ 5% (last 3-‐yr average) = YR 2020

ALABAMA -‐ TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES


Still down 37% from 2006 peak (18,805) | @ 7% (last 3-yr avg) = Yr 2021

BIRMINGHAM -‐ TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES


Still down 61% from 2008 (3,635 units) & 30% from 2009 @ 13% (last 2-yr avg growth) = Yr 2021-2022 to reach 2008

BIRMINGHAM -‐ TOTAL NEW HOME SALES


DOM still up 5% vs ‘09 ALABAMA -‐ DAYS ON MARKET BEFORE SOLD


DOM down 19% since 2009 | Trend is Goods News for Market BIRMINGHAM - DAYS ON MARKET BEFORE SOLD


Median Price UP 5.4% since 2011 bottom ALABAMA -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE


Median Price UP 16% since 2011 (8% per year) BIRMINGHAM -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE


Median Price UP 26% since 2010 bottom (9% avg per year) BHAM NEW HOME -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE


Average Price UP 24% since 2010 bottom (8% avg per year) BHAM NEW HOME -‐ AVERAGE SALES PRICE


2013 VS 2012 | 3rd Consecutive Yr of Sales Growth – 2% in’11, 6% in ‘12) ALABAMA -‐ ANNUAL COMPARISON


2011 was first positive sales growth @ 2% since 2006 2012 was also up 10% over 2011 -‐ Trending in Right Direction

BIRMINGHAM -‐ ANNUAL COMPARISON


2012 was first positive sales growth @ 16% since 2006) Trending in Right Direction

BHAM NEW HOMES -‐ ANNUAL COMPARISON


Supply Dn 4% from Feb 13 | 41% dn from Peak New Home Inventory = 705 units or 10%


Months of Supply: DOWN 5% from February 2013 | 45% down from Peak(Feb’10) New Home I/S in February = 6.8 months


Sales Up .5% from Feb 2013 | 42% down from Peak in Feb 2006 New Home Sales = 104 units or 14% of all sales vs

12% in Feb 2013


YOY Monthly Comparison: DOM Unchanged from Feb 2013 | 6% Down from 3-‐yr Avg (110)

No Bham DOM data for New Construction


Prices UP 8.3% from Jan 2013 1-2% Avg. Annual Growth since 2004 | 6% off peak February 2006

New Home Median Price up 26% or $53,922


RED = NEW HOMES SOLD | GREEN= USED SOLD BHAM TREND LINES


RED = NEW HOMES LISTED | BLUE = NEW SOLD BHAM TREND LINES


TOTAL SALES VOLUME BY $ (2006-2014) BHAM TREND LINES


DR HORTON 12% / SIGNATURE HOMES 7%

Bham New Home – Market Share by Closed Transactions (last 12 months thru 2/2014)


AVERAGE PRICE – NEW HOMES BLUE BHAM TREND LINES


$200,000-299,000 = 40% | $300,000-$399,000 = 30%

Bham New Home – Market Share by SALES PRICE (last 12 months thru 2/2014)


Building Permits still off 29% from 2008 Housing Starts still off 33% from 2008 2013 – Permits up 18% / Starts up 19%

BHAM JANUARY PERMITS Down 20% | Start Dn 7%

NEW HOMES SUPPLY


Missed by 1.5% or short by 218 units


Sales Forecast = 41,799 units | Actual = 43,079 units | Missed by: 3%


Sales up 8.2% or 80 more units per month | NEW HOME 7-‐12% RANGE


Sales up 5% or 180 more units per month


Keyword: GRADUAL US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: Progress US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: GRADUAL US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: PATIENCE US HOUSING OUTLOOK


AL 1.1% / US 2.09% (Dec ‘13) US HOUSING OUTLOOK


AL TYPICAL LAGS US BY 12-18 MOTNHS US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: STABLE US HOUSING OUTLOOK

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Potluck

THURSDAY


In 100 markets – on average 38% cheaper to BUY Birmingham was 56% cheaper to BUY

TRULIA: RENT VS BUY


Median Price Average Annual Appreciation since 1975 – 7% per year ALABAMA -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE


OCCUPANCY RATE TRENDS ALABAMA Multifamily


Keyword: EXPANSION US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


Keyword: STEADY US ECONOMIC LONG-TERM OUTLOOK


Keyword: FAVORABLE (Starts up 30% in’15, 10% in ’16) US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: FAVORABLE US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: Ground ZERO – Good News – 175,000 US HOUSING OUTLOOK


Keyword: EXCITING US HOUSING OUTLOOK


ARE YOU CONFIDENCE? US HOUSING OUTLOOK THRU 2015


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2014 Housing Forecast – Grayson Glaze, Alabama Center For Real Estate

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Transcript of 2014 Housing Forecast – Grayson Glaze, Alabama Center For Real Estate