2014 05 CRISMA architecture for transferable applications

Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research,

technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 284552 "CRISMA“

An Architecture for transferable

applications

CRISMA end user workshop at PSCE conference

2014-05-22, Göteborg, Se

Denis Havlik (AIT), Pascal Dihé (cismet)

15/10/2014 | 2

Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet

We can only develop a

few applications at the

level of “working

prototype”

So why should you think

about CRISMA

framework, building

blocks and architecture?

And why do we claim

that CRISMA results

are “transferable”?

15/10/2014 | 3


Intended uses of CRISMA

Debriefing

(Desktop) Training

for decision makers

Planning - Infrastructure

- Resources

15/10/2014 | 4


Nordic

exposure

Coastal

inundation

Toxic gas

exposure

Earthquake,

cascading

effects

Mass

accident

Optimization

of RM

planning

X ~ ~ ~ X

Decision

maker

training

~ X ~

Investment

planning ~ X XDebriefing

~ ~ XX = major interest; ~ = nice to have & possible extensions; RM = resource management

CRISMA applications – topical coverage

15/10/2014 | 5


CRISMA assumption: these applications can be designed in

coherent way=> re-use of concepts and

software; transferable to new applications

15/10/2014 | 6


Concept => implementation => applications

Specification Level

ImplementationLevel

“CRISMA framework architecture v2” document can be downloaded from our web site

15/10/2014 | 7


Events => decisions => consequences

Any element can be

either real or

simulated

Outcome can be

changed by users

decisions.

Behind the

scenes, “things

happen”

15/10/2014 | 8


Common conceptual business logic

World

(what is out here?)

World

Model

Incident

Model

Response

Model

World

Situation(X, t)

Incident

Situation(X, t)

Parameters ParametersParameters

Define freely Define freely Define freely

OR OR OR

(what are we dealing with?) (how do we react?)

Incident Response influences influences

Restore

Model

Restore

Situation(X, t)

Response

Situation(X, t)

Define freely

Parameterscreates

The „world“ is

represented by „situation“

and by models which can

change the situation

Situations and models

pertinent to different stages

of crisis management are

relatively decoupled…

New situations

can also be

postulated by

users

15/10/2014 | 9


Vulnerability Classes

:

Situation Maps

Objects of Interest

Weather Data

...

SimulationControl

Parameter

SimulationWorld State

Manipulation

Vulnerability Classes

:

Situation Maps

Objects of Interest

Weather Data

...

SimulationControl

Parameter

World State'

change

Indicators

Indicators

Indicator Function

Simulation

. . .

Simulation

Simulation

calculate

trigger

perform

kl

Hazard Exposure

MitigationResource Managem

ent

f

M

M

M

M

Materialization of World states, decisions, transitions

CRISMA

framework

operate on

„world states“,

coherent sets

of data

describing the

(simulated)

world

Users Decisions

change the world state

– either directly or by

changing model

parameters

Everything we

know about the

World is based

on the world

state

15/10/2014 | 10


Criteria and Costs

WorldState

SimulationModel Control

Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

World State

Transition

Time

Alt

ern

ati

ves

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Concept of Decision Points & Alternative Worlds

Alternative users’

decisions result in

alternative World

States.

The results can be

compared...

15/10/2014 | 11


Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

World StateData

Criteria and Costs


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

PlanningDecision Making

Training

Indicators and Criteria

are representative

quantifications of a world

state

Are independent from the

models and decisions

are the base for situation

analysis and visualization

support decision making

Transferable solutions can be

developed

Comparison through

indicators and criteria

functions

15/10/2014 | 14


And some transferable models…

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

CASCADE EFFECTS

TIME DEPENDENT

VULNERABILITY

RESSOURCES DEPLOYMENT

Illustrations by: Konzumel (money - http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/), Jeff McNeill (time - http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffmcneill/),

Donwoodyard (ambulance - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lanka_ambulance.jpg),

Nauticashades (domino - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADomino_Cascade.JPG)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffmcneill/

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lanka_ambulance.jpg

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Domino_Cascade.JPG

15/10/2014 | 15


Sure, this sounds good

at the level of power

point presentation…

But…

.. can you show us

any actual evidence?

15/10/2014 | 16


YES we can!(but we are quite scared because of the internet

connectivity issues we experienced last week)

15/10/2014 | 17


We will present two working prototypes as they are today next: one

related to infrastructure planning, other to resource management

training

Both follow the CRISMA architectural principles and already share big part of the software…

15/10/2014 | 19


Three illustrative examples:

15/10/2014 | 20


Indicator analysis and multi-criteria functions

and GUI elements

1

15/10/2014 | 21


What is the relative importance of…?

Illustrations from wikimedia.org

15/10/2014 | 22


Handling of cascading events

issue: probabilities are often unknown

2

15/10/2014 | 23


15/10/2014 | 24


Transferability between “training” and

“planning” pilotsdemonstration planned in v2

3

15/10/2014 | 25


With fully-fledged Pilot C (Israel) application, one could

already validate a plan by executing it as a training.

not a very user-friendly solution

=> we shall create additional v2 Building Block to:

1. Track decisions (as they reflect the plan) from a training run

– This information is already available

2. replay with some variations in environment, e.g. number of

patients, weather conditions

3. replay with altered decisions (testing some changes in the

response plan)

Why and how can we achieve this?

15/10/2014 | 26


Resource management training and planning:

synergies and differences

1) Training 2) Planning Differences & comments

Scenario setup X X -

Interactive view X x Not strictly necessary, but we shall

use interactive view to prepare initial

plansStore decisions X X

Edit decisions - X Changing parameters (e.g. when and

where to send resources?)

Edit initial

parameters

X X part of scenario setup! (accident

position, weather, no. victims…)

Re-play decisions x X Nice to have in training case („demo

mode“)

Result

comparison

X X -

15/10/2014 | 27


Thank You!

Follow CRISMA in: www.crismaproject.eu

http://www.crismaproject.eu/

2014 05 CRISMA architecture for transferable applications

Technology

Transcript of 2014 05 CRISMA architecture for transferable applications