©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. ENERGY...

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.

E N E R G Y

DI SPUTES & I NVEST I G ATI ONS • ECONO MI CS • F I NANCI AL ADVI SORY • MANAGEMENT CONSULT I NG

December 16, 2013

Local Government Quantified Savings Component of Strategic Plan Update

Navigant Reference: 150283

Stakeholder Update #3

2©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y

Content of Report

This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the California Public Utilities Commission and/or its affiliates or subsidiaries. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside these organization(s) without prior written approval from Navigant Consulting, Inc. The work presented in this report represents our best efforts and judgments based on the information available at the time this report was prepared. Navigant Consulting, Inc. is not responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report.

NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED.

Readers of the report are advised that they assume all liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a result of their reliance on the report, or the data, information, findings and opinions contained in the report.

December 16, 2013©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. Navigant Consulting is not a certified public accounting firm and does not provide audit, attest, or public accounting services. See www.navigantconsulting.com/licensing for a complete listing of private investigator licenses. Investment banking, private placement, merger, acquisition and divestiture services offered through Navigant Capital Advisors, LLC., Member FINRA/SIPC.

http://www.navigantconsulting.com/licensing


1:30 Introductions and Meeting Goals

1:40 Synopsis of Previous Meetings

1:50 Revisit Goal #3 Metrics

2:20 Wording for Metrics for Goals #1 and #4

Agenda

2:40 Next Steps






Agenda

2:40 Next Steps


Introductions and Meeting Goals » Meeting Goals

We will address each of these goals during the course of today’s meeting.

• Gain alignment on metrics for Goals #1, #3, and #4

Outcomes for Today’s Meeting

Feel free to raise questions and comments as we go through the presentation.

• Review fit of the metrics effort with LG SP update

• Review the key points made during previous meetings

• Discuss revised approach and results for metrics for Goal #3

• Review wording for metrics for Goals #1 and #4

Goals for Today’s Meeting






Agenda

2:40 Next Steps


Synopsis of Previous Meeting

The first two stakeholder meetings included attendance (by phone and in person) by a wide range of participants.

• The manner in which the metrics discussion is framed is important. Be clear that the metrics won’t quantify all of the activities of the LGs.

• Savings from LG buildings are only part of the equation. Real opportunity resides with the constituents’ buildings.

• Savings that LGs can achieve may be different than those for which IOUs can claim credit. LGs are interested in representing the full range of savings, not just those for which IOUs can claim credit.

• Reach codes are still on the table in some jurisdictions.

• Enhancing compliance and enhancing enforcement require different mechanisms and have different effects.

Key Points Made by Stakeholders during Meetings #1 and #2

Stakeholder input has shaped our approach to presenting and framing the metrics component of the LG Strategic Plan chapter.


Synopsis of Previous Meeting

The project team would like to refresh several points of context discussed during the first two stakeholder meetings.

• Developing metrics helps create legitimacy for the Strategic Plan and efforts of local governments.

• The metrics developed during this effort are not anticipated to serve as goals for the LGP programs.

• This effort leverages an existing, vetted tool to develop the quantifiable metrics. – The tool (the Potential, Goals, and Targets Model) can

create metrics for some but not all components of the goals.

– For those metrics that are developed, the results are intended to indicate scale and represent trends, not to provide precise calculations of savings potential.

– Future studies or pilots may help quantify specific elements of the goals, and the forthcoming action plan can capture those priorities for planning purposes.

Relevant Context Discussed by the Project Team






Agenda

2:40 Next Steps


Code-Related Issues

Type of Construction (Vintage)

Sector

Opportunities for LG Energy

Efficiency

Residential

Existing Buildings

Compliance with Code when Triggered

Improving Efficiency in

Existing Buildings

New Construction

Code Compliance

Reach Codes

Non-Residential (Including LG

and Constituents)

Existing Buildings

Compliance with Code when Triggered

Improving Efficiency in

Existing Buildings

New Construction

Code Compliance

Reach Codes

Revisit Goal #3 Metrics

The proposed metrics for Goal #3 quantify two types of effects that could be achieved by leveraging LG regulatory authority. Dimensions of the LG Energy Savings

Opportunity

The proposed metrics capture the effects of enhanced code compliance (blue) and improved efficiency in existing buildings (green).



The project team developed two metrics for Goal #3 based on the discussion during the first stakeholder meeting. Metric #1 Metric #2

Goal Goal #3: Local governments accelerate the implementation of energy efficiency, zero net energy and greenhouse gas reduction goals through the use of their regulatory authority.

Metric Energy savings from an increase of 10 percentage points in compliance with existing codes for new construction.

Energy savings from bringing the existing building stock up to code from its current state.

Relevant Strategy Strategy 3-2: Dramatically improve compliance with and enforcement of Title 24, including HVAC permitting and inspection requirements (including peak-load reduction solutions in inland areas).

Strategy 3-3: Develop, adopt and implement model policies and programs focusing on improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings.

Notes Requires collection of baseline compliance data for 2013 Title 24.

Requires more comprehensive understanding of current energy performance of existing building stock, perhaps by LG jurisdiction

Modeling Approach Assume baseline code compliance rate increases by 10 percentage points

Increase baseline energy consumption (against which savings are calculated) by 25%



We are lacking current data to provide precise estimates of the potential energy savings from updating existing buildings to current code.

• The revised approach includes a range of potential savings for the to-code compliance metric:– High end: Based on anecdotal input from LGs, increased

the baseline energy consumption by 25%– Low end: Based on an assessment of additional savings

from HVAC to-code compliance

• Actual savings potential may be more than the high end of this range or lower than the low end of this range.

• This metric could significantly benefit from more comprehensive data, some of which may become available through the upcoming CSS or CLASS studies.

Update on Approach to the To-Code Compliance Metric


Revisit Goal #3 Metrics » Analysis of To-Code Compliance (Existing Buildings)

Increasing overall baseline energy consumption by 25% yields improved savings. HVAC-to-Code compliance alone also yields significant savings.

Sector Fuel Type

Increase in Incremental Savings in 2020

Increase in Baseline Energy Performance

by 25%*

HVAC-to-Code Compliance

Program

ResidentialElectric 26% 3%

Gas 20% 12%

CommercialElectric 26% 7%

Gas -2% 26%* The increase in baseline energy performance is being used as a proxy for a high-end range for energy savings that may be realized from a to-code compliance program. Positive savings are indicative of to-code-compliance improvements. Negative savings are indicative of to-code-compliance increased interactive effects.

Source: Navigant analysis of PG Model release on 5/22/2013.



Measure-level analysis of HVAC-to-Code Compliance savings yields substantial savings for existing buildings that are below code.

Sector Fuel Type

HVAC-to-Code Compliance Savings*

Min Max Average

Residential

Electric 46% 154% 95%Gas -50% -3% -26%

Commercial

Electric 1% 972% 180%Gas 0% 0% 0%

*Positive savings indicates Base-to-Measure UES > Code-to-Measure UES. This is indicative of a mixed market baseline lower than code. Negative savings indicates Code-to-Measure UES > Base-to-Measure UES. This is indicative of a mixed market baseline higher than code.


The values reported in this table represent average UES between DEER and IOU workpaper measures for which there is a reported difference between base and code impacts. There are a number of measures from these datasets where the UES impact of base was reported as equal to the UES impact of code. This would indicate that base is equal to code. Additional savings from a lower mixed market baseline than code may be possible if conclusive evidence supporting the overall disposition of market baseline equipment is provided.



Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental Market Potential (Residential Sector) 2014 – 2024 (GWh)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

SHW

HVAC

BldgEnv

ProcHeat

Lighting

To-Code Compliance Program

HVAC To-Code Compliance Program

Year

GW

h



Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental Market Potential (Residential Sector) 2014 – 2024 (MM Therms)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

SHW

HVAC

BldgEnv

ProcHeat

Lighting



Year

MM

Therm

s

Note: Negative values due to interactive effects.



Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental Market Potential (Commercial Sector) 2014 – 2024 (GWh)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

SHW

HVAC

BldgEnv

ProcHeat

Lighting

To-Code Com-pliance Program


Year

GW

h



Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental Market Potential (Commercial Sector) 2014 – 2024 (MM Therms)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

SHW

HVAC

BldgEnv

ProcHeat

Lighting



Year

MM

Therm

s

Note: Negative values due to interactive effects.


Revisit Goal #3 Metrics » Analysis of Enhanced Code Compliance (New Construction)

Increasing new buildings’ compliance with code by 10 percentage points yields marginal additional electric savings.Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental Market Potential

(Residential and Commercial) 2014 – 2024 (GWh)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

C&S - IOU Attributable Savings

Commercial

Residential

C&S - 10% Increased Code Compli-ance

Year

Incre

menta

l M

ark

et

Pote

nti

al

(GW

h)



Increasing new buildings’ compliance with code by 10 percentage points yields marginal additional electric savings.Savings from C&S in IOU Service Territories (Residential and

Commercial) 2014-2024 (GWh)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Gross C&S Sav-ings

Net C&S Sav-ings

Gross C&S Sav-ings - 10% In-creased Code Compliance

Net C&S Sav-ings - 10% In-creased Code Compliance

Year

Incre

menta

l Savin

gs

due t

o C

&S (

GW

h)



Increasing new buildings’ compliance with code by 10 percentage points yields marginal additional gas savings.

Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental Market Potential (Residential and Commercial) 2014 – 2024 (MM Therms)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

C&S - IOU Attributable Savings

Commercial

Residential

C&S - 10% Increased Code Com-pliance

Year

Incre

menta

l M

ark

et

Pote

nti

al

(MM

Therm

s)



Increasing new buildings’ compliance with code by 10 percentage points yields marginal additional gas savings.

Savings from C&S in IOU Service Territories (Residential and Commercial) 2014-2024 (MM Therms)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Gross C&S Savings

Net C&S Sav-ings

Gross C&S Savings - 10% Increased Code Com-pliance

Net C&S Sav-ings - 10% In-creased Code Compliance

Year

Incre

menta

l Savin

gs

due t

o C

&S (

MM

Therm

s)






Agenda

2:40 Next Steps


Framing for Quantitative Metrics for Goals #1 and #4

As previously discussed, the metrics assigned to Goals #1 and #4 represent savings that can be achieved within LG facilities.

These metrics capture only one component of each of the goals.

Goal Definition of the Metric

Goal #1: Local governments lead by example by designing and implementing programs that reduce their agencies’ energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Achieve 34 GWh and 0.5 MM Therms of energy savings from implementation of standard efficiency measures/ (i.e., measures eligible for IOU rebates) captured in facilities owned and/or occupied by LGs.

Goal #4: Local government and community energy efficiency expertise becomes widespread and prevalent.

Achieve 8 GWh and 0.1 MM Therms of energy savings from implementation of enhanced energy management practices captured in facilities owned and/or occupied by LGs.






Agenda

2:40 Next Steps


Next Steps

This is our last planned stakeholder meeting of the three-phase stakeholder engagement process for these metrics.

Meeting Date and

Time Agenda Location

21-Nov2:00 p.m. – 4:30p.m.

Describe methodology for estimating baselines and potential; Share preliminary results.

Webex and Pacific Energy Center (San Francisco)

5-Dec1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Comments on preliminary results of Goals 1 and 2; Preliminary results of Goal 3.

Webex only

16-Dec1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Share draft-final results; Solicit additional comments.Webex and SCG site in Downey

Planned Engagement Timeline

KeyC O N T A C T S


KeyC O N T A C T S


KeyC O N T A C T S


KeyC O N T A C T S


27

E N E R G Y

Floyd KeneippManaging DirectorWalnut Creek, CA(925) 930-2716 [email protected]

Jane Pater SalmonDirectorBoulder, CO(303) 728-2522 [email protected]

Eric ShumSenior ConsultantWalnut Creek, CA(925) 930-2704 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




Framing for Quantitative Metrics for Goals #1 and #4

The metrics presented during the last meeting for Goals #1 and #2 will be separated and assigned to Goals #1 and #4.

These metrics capture only one component of each of the goals.

Goal Definition of the Metric

Goal #1: Local governments lead by example by designing and implementing programs that reduce their agencies’ energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Energy savings captured in facilities occupied by LGs from implementation of standard efficiency measures/ (i.e., measures eligible for IOU rebates)

Goal #4: Local government and community energy efficiency expertise becomes widespread and prevalent.

Energy savings captured in facilities occupied by LGs from implementation of enhanced energy management practices.


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOU» Commercial Sector › Electric

Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental LG Market Potential 2014 – 2024 (GWh)

2013 Preliminary LG Results - Do Not Cite


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

WholeBlg

Service

SHW

ProcHeat

Lighting

HVAC

FoodServ

ComRefrig

BldgEnv

AppPlug

LG Community Policy and Programs (Goal 2)

Year

GW

h

4


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOU» Commercial Sector › Electric

Aggregate IOU Cumulative LG Market Potential 2014 – 2024 (GWh)



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

WholeBlg

Service

SHW

ProcHeat

Lighting

HVAC

FoodServ

ComRefrig

BldgEnv

AppPlug


Year

GW

h

4


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOU» Commercial Sector › Gas

Aggregate IOU Annual Incremental LG Market Potential 2014 – 2024 (MM Therms)



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

WholeBlg

Service

SHW

ProcHeat

Lighting

HVAC

FoodServ

ComRefrig

BldgEnv

AppPlug


Year

MM

Therm

s

4


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOU» Commercial Sector › Gas

Aggregate IOU Cumulative LG Market Potential 2014 – 2024 (MM Therms)



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

WholeBlg

Service

SHW

ProcHeat

Lighting

HVAC

FoodServ

ComRefrig

BldgEnv

AppPlug


Year

MM

Therm

s

4

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. ENERGY...

Documents

Transcript of ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. ENERGY...