ETHOS Keynote Speech

Photo: NASA

Tami C. Bond University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

January 26, 2012 ETHOS – Kirkland, WA - USA

10 January 2013!!Hi Dearest Tami,!!Could you (please, please) do something easy like 'They Ask You Questions' or anything you like Saturday evening as the Keynote Person of Merit?...! !It would really be great and we hope you can do it!!!Best,!!Dean and Mark!!

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Something easy like “They Ask You Questions”

Photo: NASA

by Tami

Outline

1. Quick note about the Comparative Risk Assessment 2. Climate News

“Black carbon” & “short-lived climate forcers” 3. Questions

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5 The Lancet, Dec 2012

Results of the Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA)

6 Lim et al, CRA, Lancet 2012

#4 Globally

What is black carbon?

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Scattering particle

Light is reflected away from Earth--

COOLING

Absorbing particle

Light is absorbed and turned into heat –

WARMING

Almost everything that

is not BC e.g.

sulfates & organic carbon

It looks like this under a very strong

microscope

Li et al, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108(D13), 8484, 10.1029/2002jd002310, 2004.

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Black carbon à powerful, immediate warming CO2 à long, slow warming

1500 W

1 g BC (1/25 oz or ½ dime ) = space heater for 1 week 7 pounds CO2 = 1 small bulb for 100 years

Both come from an old diesel truck driving 2 miles

1/3 gallon

1 W

particles with short lifetimes gases with long lifetimes

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January 2011

Findings of the UNEP-BC/Ozone report

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Orange= Bad stuff Don’t go there

Deal with Greenhouse gases

Short-lived climate forcers Including stoves

Both

Don’t do

anything

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Assessing the science “Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in Climate” Journal of Geophysical Research Jan 15 2013

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this candle is making black carbon

and this one is making “organic” carbon… no flame, no game!

right here organic carbon makes COOLING…

so, it’s complicated.

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High = dirty 0 = particles have no BC 1 = all BC

comparison of cookstoves & diesel engines and kerosene lamps

Nick Lam et al., Environmental Science and Technology, Nov 2012

climate warming from kerosene lamps

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Why should I care about the climate side?

Photo: NASA

Because people are watching you now

IN ADDITION TO… Climate in 2100 Climate in 2030 Global average impact Radiative forcing Urban sources Outdoor air quality Your issue here

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WHAT ABOUT… Climate in 2030 Climate in 2100 Effect on sensitive regions Temp, Precip, Timing Rural sources Indoor air quality Net public good

The “short-lived climate forcer” discussion adds vigor and rigor to the discussion of future welfare

What does all this attention mean?

Photo: NASA

People are watching you now

There is a great opportunity and

a great responsibility

part 3. Questions

(or Something Easy)

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