2013 Economic Forecast

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THE NORTHERN UTAH ECONOMY ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2013 ECONOMIC FORECAST Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013

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The Northern Utah Economy, for more information, please visit jobs.utah.gov

Transcript of 2013 Economic Forecast

Page 1: 2013 Economic Forecast

T H E N O RT H E R N U TA H E C O N O M Y

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK

2013 ECONOMIC FORECAST

Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013

Page 2: 2013 Economic Forecast

EMPLOYMENT TRENDSHOW HAS EMPLOYMENT CHANGED?

Page 3: 2013 Economic Forecast

UTAH YEAR-OVER CHANGE IN TOTAL NONFARM JOBS BY COUNTY

(DEC. 2011 – DEC. 2012)

EmeryDaggettCarbon

RichSan Juan

UintahTooele

PiuteIron

SevierBox Elder

MorganGarfield

WeberCacheDavis

SanpeteMillard

SummitKane

State Avg.Wayne

Salt LakeGrand

JuabUtah

WashingtonBeaver

WasatchDuchesne

-7.3%-6.6%

-4.6%-4.5%

-2.0%-1.9%

-1.5%-0.4%-0.2%

0.4%0.8%0.9%

1.5%2.0%2.1%2.3%

2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%

3.7%3.7%

4.1%5.1%

5.5%5.6%5.6%

6.6%6.8%

8.1%

Page 4: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTHRECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY COUNTY

(2002 – 2012)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

190,000

195,000

200,000

205,000

2%1%

4%

3%

5%

3%

-0.2%

-3%

1%

5%

3%

-0.3%

7%

8%

-1%

1%

6%

-5%

-3%

-1%-1%

-2%

-0.1%

1%1% 1%

3%3%

-0.2%

-5%

-1%

0.5%

2%

Davis Morgan Weber Total Employment

Perc

ent

Change in E

mplo

ym

ent

from

Pre

-vio

us Y

ear

Tota

l N

onfa

rm E

mplo

ym

ent

201,787

192,196

201,722

Page 5: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY COUNTY

(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

Aug

2009

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2010

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2011

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2012

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Davis County

Davis Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Aug

2009

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2010

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2011

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2012

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Morgan County

Morgan Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Aug 2009

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug 2010

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug 2011

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug 2012

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Weber County

Weber Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Department of Workforce Services

7.0%

4.9%

8.9%

5.7%

6.8%

4.9%

Page 6: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WEEKLY AVERAGE

(1ST QUARTER OF EACH YEAR)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

245 258

323

690

546

487

392368

Page 7: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS BY COUNTY

(FOUR-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Davis County

Davis 2013

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Weber County

Weber 2013

6-yr Range

6-yr Range

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

0

5

10

15

20

Morgan County

Morgan 2... 6-yr Range

132.5

166.0

3.5

Page 8: 2013 Economic Forecast

IMPORTANT INDUSTRIESWHAT DRIVES THE ECONOMY?

Page 9: 2013 Economic Forecast

14.2%

12.3%

11.7%

11.3%10.0%

7.4%

6.0%

5.5%

5.1%

16.9%Government (Excluding Education & Health Care)

Retail Trade (Private)

Health Care & Social Assistance (Public & Private)

Manufacturing (Private)

Educational Services (Public & Private)

Accommodation & Food Services (Private)

Construction (Private)

Administrative & Waste Services (Private)

Professional & Technical Services (Private)

Other Industries (Private)

WASATCH FRONT NORTH EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY 2012

(AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Page 10: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH WAGES(BY INDUSTRY)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Accommodation & food services

Arts, entertainment, & recreation

Administrative & waste services

Retail trade

Other services

Agriculture & Forestry

Educational services

Real estate & rental & leasing

Health care & social assistance

Transportation & warehousing

Information

Construction

Finance & insurance

Mining

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

Government (less Ed. & Health)

Professional & technical services

Management of companies

Utilities

$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000

$12,783

$13,991

$22,844

$24,632

$26,618

$27,706

$29,161

$31,342

$37,472

$39,458

$40,328

$42,376

$46,293

$47,667

$48,883

$50,702

$53,241

$57,729

$61,898

$82,375

Average Annual Wage in the WFN:

$37,675

Page 11: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH YEAR-OVER CHANGE IN NONFARM JOBS

(BY INDUSTRY)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Wholesale Trade

Total Government (excluding Education and Health Care)

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Finance and Insurance

Utilities

Total Education

Other Services (except Public Administration)

Transportation and Warehousing

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Total Health Care and Social Assistance

Information

Retail Trade

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Accommodation and Food Services

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Manufacturing

Construction

Administrative and Support and Waste Management

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

-2.6%

-2.3%

-2.3%

0.9%

1.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.8%

2.3%

2.6%

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

3.5%

3.9%

4.1%

5.8%

6.1%

7.7%

8.9%

Page 12: 2013 Economic Forecast

1990

1998

2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Government (Excluding Education & Health

Care)

Retail Trade

Health Care &Social Assistance

Manufacturing

Educational Services

Re-ces-sions

Perc

ent

of

Nonfa

rm E

mplo

ym

ent

WASATCH FRONT NORTH INDUSTRY TRENDS

(TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Page 13: 2013 Economic Forecast

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% $-

$15,000

$30,000

$45,000

$60,000

$75,000

Percent of Total Employment

Annual W

ages

Government (excluding Education & Health Care)

WASATCH FRONT NORTH WAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS

(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)

Location Quotient of 1 (based on U.S. statistics)

LQ

Manufacturing

Professional & Technical Services

Transportation &

Warehousing

Construction

Administrative & Waste Service

Accommodation & Food Services

Educational Service

Health Care & Social Services

Retail Trade

Average Annual Wage in the WFN:

$37,675

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Page 14: 2013 Economic Forecast

WEBER COUNTY WAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS

(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)

Source: Department of Workforce Services

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% $-

$15,000

$30,000

$45,000

$60,000

$75,000

Percent of Total Nonfarm Employment

Annual W

ages

Health Care & Social Assis-tance

ManufacturingFinance & Insur-ance

Construction

Wholesale TradeGovernment (excluding

Education & Health Care)

Retail Trade

Educational Ser-vices

Accommoda-tion & Food Services

Administrative & Waste Ser-

vices

Location Quotient of 1 (based on U.S. statistics)

LQ

Average Annual Wage in Weber:

$35,912

Page 15: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH INDUSTRY TRENDS

(LARGEST INDUSTRY BY COUNTY)

1990

1998

2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Davis, Government (excluding Education &

Health Care)

Morgan, Construction

Weber, Manufacturing

Re-ces-sions

Perc

ent

of

Nonfa

rm E

mplo

ym

ent

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Page 16: 2013 Economic Forecast

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOKHOW WILL THE ECONOMY GROW?

Page 17: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Total Nonfarm Employment Projected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 233,865

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

2.0% per year

Page 18: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH GOVERNMENT

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Total Government (excluding education & health care & postal service) - ActualProjected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 30,252

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

0.5% per year

Page 19: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH RETAIL TRADE

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Retail Trade (Actual) Projected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 28,395

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

1.7% per year

Page 20: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL SERVICES

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Health Care and Social Services (Actual) Projected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 30,024

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

3.3% per year

Page 21: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH MANUFACTURING

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Manufacturing (Actual) Projected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 24,565

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

1.9% per year

Page 22: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH CONSTRUCTION

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Construction (Actual) Projected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 16,129

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

3.5% per year

Page 23: 2013 Economic Forecast

WASATCH FRONT NORTH PROFESSIONAL & TECHNICAL SERVICES

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Professional & Technical Services (Actual) Projected

Em

plo

ym

ent

Tota

l

Source: Department of Workforce Services

Projected Total: 12,494

Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:

3.0% per year

Page 24: 2013 Economic Forecast

OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUESWHAT ELSE IS IMPACTING ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Page 25: 2013 Economic Forecast

SEQUESTRATION

• The sequester could affect as many as 11,000 people in Utah, resulting in $86 million in lost wages.

• The automatic spending cuts of the Sequester will affect employment differently in different industries and occupations. Regions with high levels of federal government employment, like Weber County and Davis County, will be impacted more than other counties in the state.

• The Department of Defense estimates that the furloughs at Hill Air Force Base will equate to a 20 percent pay cut. The personal income of individuals that have to take mandatory unpaid furloughs will decrease, which will negatively impact spending in these areas.

• The potential exists for 16,430 Utah workers to lose access to job training.

• The largest negative consequence of the Sequester is that it breeds uncertainty in the market, leading businesses and individuals to be less confident in the future of the economy. Uncertainty depresses business investment and consumer spending, which negatively impacts economic growth.

• The consensus amount economists and policymakers is that the majority of the spending cuts in the Sequester will be averted making Sequestration a short-term issue.http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/sequester/interactive-map

UTAH

Page 26: 2013 Economic Forecast

EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/european-economy-guide

Page 27: 2013 Economic Forecast

C O N TAC T: T Y S O N S M I T H @ U TA H. G OV

QUESTIONS?

THANK YOU!

Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013