2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement
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Transcript of 2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement
2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement
February 26, 2014
Overview
• Turning the corner – back in the black
Budget 2013 Q1
Q2 Q3
$451 M deficit
$500 M deficit to $250 M surplus
$250 M deficit to $250 M surplus
$1.4 B surplus
Operational Deficit/Surplus – full year
Overview
• Proceeding with caution - revenues
remain volatile • Turning the corner and continuing down
road set out in budget • Spending taps will not open up • Surplus to cushion future revenue drops
Economic Strength
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar %
cha
nge
AlbertaCanadaUSA
5.2
3.8 3.3
3.7
Economic Strength
Growth 2003-2013
13.2%
11.1%
27.6%
26.5%
Employment
PopulationAlberta
Canada
5,700
2,600
Average number of jobs added per month in 2013
Alberta
Rest ofCanada
Monthly employment growth Jan to Dec, 2013
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13
$
WTI WCS
$37 $10
$15
Oil Price Differential
$39
2013 Flood
$6B natural disaster event Provincial support • $1.2 B commitment for small businesses and
communities • $537 M operating expense and $33 M in capital
spending to December 31
Booming Population
Alberta’s Finances
Operational Deficit (Q3 estimate)
Operational Surplus (Q3 actual)
($372 M) $1.2 B
Operational Expense (Q3 estimate)
Operational Expense (Q3 actual)
$28.5 B $29.6 B
Operational Plan
Operational Revenue (Q3 estimate)
Operational Revenue (Q3 actual)
$28.1 B $30.8 B
Net Assets (Budget 2013 estimate )
Net Assets (Q3 revised forecast)
$41.1 B Decrease of $1.97 B
$43.9 B Decrease of $335 M
Operational Borrowing
$0
Alberta’s Finances
Capital Spending (Q3 estimate)
Capital Spending (Q3 actual)
$ 3.45 B $3.5 B
Debt Servicing
Debt Cap
0.6% 3%
Average Borrowing Cost
Heritage Fund Rate of Return
3.7% 11.6%
Capital Plan
(of operational revenue)
Alberta’s Finances
Contingency Account (Budget 2013 estimate)
Contingency Account (Revised 2013-14 forecast)
$691 M $4.6 B
Savings Plan
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (Fair Value of Net Assets @ Q3)
$17.3 B
Stay tuned for Budget 2014 March 6
www.finance.alberta.ca
twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance