Putting Wales and SW England on the Aviation Map

Improving Air Connectivity

John BorkowskiMSP Solutions Ltd

October 2013

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1. Air Connectivity for SW England and Wales

• Today air connectivity is vital to ensure: - Communication with world markets and - Promote economic development through inward investment.

• Air connectivity requires appropriate airports that need to be planned and developed on a logical and consistent basis.

• Since the end of World War II all UK Governments have failed to understand the importance of aviation and to develop a competitive airports policy.

• All current UK airports have significant site environmental problems.

• Today we have the embarrassment of inadequate or inappropriate airport capacity everywhere in the UK (Too many small airports).

• We need state-of-the-art airports to compete in world markets

• Airports (Davies) Commission now gives UK a chance to seriously review current UK Government aviation policy and rectify our airport problems.

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2. Evolution of Traffic at Selected UK Regional Airports Passengers Million

• Cardiff Airport passenger numbers are now in consistent decline.• Bristol Airport has steadily outperformed Cardiff Airport.

AIRPORT 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MANCHESTER 19.082 18.618 19.520 20.969 22.083 22.124 21.892 21.063 18.630 17.663 18.807 19.737

BIRMINGHAM 7.712 7.911 8.924 8.797 9.311 9.056 9.134 9.577 9.093 8.564 8.608 8.922 BOURNEMOUTH 0.265 0.392 0.462 0.493 0.829 0.961 1.083 1.079 0.868 0.75 0.613 0.693 BRISTOL 2.673 3.415 3.887 4.603 5.199 5.71 5.884 6.229 5.615 5.723 5.768 5.921

CARDIFF WALES 1.524 1.416 1.9 1.873 1.765 1.993 2.094 1.979 1.625 1.398 1.208 1.028 COVENTRY 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.461 0.718 0.610 0.599 0.331         EXETER 0.333 0.336 0.378 0.614 0.842 0.971 1.012 0.951 0.790 0.737 0.709 0.702

Total selected Regional Airports 31.590 32.092 35.073 37.810 40.747 41.425 41.698 41.209 36.621 34.835 35.713 37.003

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3. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic Type MAN,BHX,BRSConstrained Scenario

Demand Domestic (Excl. intl transfers)

Short haul Long haul Hub transfers Grand

mppa Total Total Total Total Total  Manchester 2010 1.0 11.4 4.9 0.3 17.7  Manchester  2030 1.5 19.3 7.1 0.3 28.1  Manchester  2050 2.1 33.3 12.5 7.3 55.2

  Birmingham  2010 1.0 6.2 1.0 0.0 8.2  Birmingham  2030 1.5 12.5 2.6 0.0 16.7  Birmingham  2050 1.8 21.0 14.7 0.8 38.3

  Bristol 2010 0.8 4.9 0.1 0.0 5.8  Bristol 2030 1.1 7.6 0.9 0.0 9.7  Bristol 2050 1.5 10.2 0.6 0.0 12.3

• Bristol Airport is not suitable for longhaul flights.• Lack of SE Airport capacity forces up BHX longhaul flights.• If Bristol was a bigger site it could attract many more flights including

LH.• Wales and SW England Traffic is forced to use BHX and MAN.

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4. Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport

• Bristol Airport filling up - limited further capacity expansion possibility.

• Cardiff Airport - not well located to pick up English passengers.

• What happens here if LHR is replaced by another hub airport STN or Thames Estuary?

• Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a single new large airport in Severn Estuary:- State-of-the-art passenger terminal and 3,500-4,000m runway- More destinations - More frequency - also Major Cargo activities- Bigger aircraft - lower costs- Longhaul flights- Environment: 24-hour operation with flight-path over water.- Biggest catalyst to regenerate economic activity in SW England and Wales

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6. ce Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport

Catchment for the New Airport

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New South East Wales International Airport

Catchment area generating 80% of passengers

Indicative airport site

5. Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport

New Severn Estuary Airport - Passenger Air Traffic Forecast - HighYear 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 Passengers (millions)   Short Haul    Growth rate   5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3.5%  Ex Bristol 12 12.6 13.2 16.7 20.3 24.8 29.4  Ex Cardiff 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.9  Subtotal SH 13.2  13.9 14.6 18.4 22.4 27.3 32.4 Long Haul    Growth rate     150% 20% 15% 5% 4%  Subtotal LH   0.2 0.5 1.7 3.6 4.6 5.6

Total Passengers 14.1 15.1 20.2 26.0 31.9 38.0

New Severn Estuary Airport - Passenger Air Traffic Forecast - LowYear 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 Passengers (millions)   Short Haul    Growth rate   5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3.5%  Ex Bristol 9.5 10.0 10.5 13.2 16.1 19.6 23.3  Ex Cardiff 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7  Subtotal SH 10.6  11.2 11.7 14.8 18.0 21.9 26.0 Long Haul    Growth rate     100% 20% 15% 5% 4%  Subtotal LH   0.2 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.5 4.2

Total Passengers 11.4 12.1 16.1 20.7 25.4 30.2 7

6. What does the New Airport provide over BRS/CWL

• Airport would be a state-of-art large airport (size of Gatwick) suitable for operating the largest aircraft at maximum TO weight for 24-hour operation: long/wide runway.

• Airport would attract much more traffic than BRS/CWL combined: Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways plus US carriers.

• New UK longhaul airline could also emerge if IAG (BA/Iberia) does not participate.

• Longhaul flights starting with small narrow body aircraft B737-700ER/A319LR.

• Then B757 replacement, followed by wide-body B767, B787 and A350XWB at a later date.

• Large pure freighters and express parcel operators (FEDEX, UPS, Cargolux) would be attracted to the airport for B747-8F, B747-400F and B777F longhaul flights.

• Only a marginal contribution to resolving the SE Airport Hub capacity problem.

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3500-4000 m Runway 45 m wide

Minimum separation is 590 m to safeguard for emergency or close parallel runway options as illustrated in Options 2

1300 m

Pier

Terminal Road,

Rail and Car Parking

Zone

Up to 6

MARS stands

Cargo and Catering

Taxiway

55 m

Rail 

Road

Fire Station

2000m 

Approx.

Stands

Severn Estuary Airport

Concept PlanLong Term Strategic

Development Safeguarded Zones

Phase1 for Options 1 or 2

Single new Runway and New Taxiway

Taxiway

Temporary Remote Stands

Safeguarded area for either Options 1 or 2

Railway would loop under the airport back to the main GW line East

Fuel and Maintenance Area

3500-4000 m Runway 45 m wide

200 m

800 m

1150 m Approx.

StandPier

Termin

al

Road,Rail

and Car Parking

Zone

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Below Ground TTS Link

Satellite P

ier

New Control Tower

Fuel and Maintenance Area

Cargo and Catering

Taxiway

100 m

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

400 m

Rail 

Road

45 m

Fire Station

Future Taxiway

Future Runway

190 m

600 m

150 m

1700m 

Approx.

Stand Stand

Stand

StandStand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Stand

Severn Estuary Airport

Concept PlanLong Term Strategic

Development Safeguarded Zones

Option 1Single Runway,

Taxi-way Railway

would loop under the airport back to the main GW line East

7. Single Bigger Airport - Next steps

• SW England and Wales need to work together to achieve this objective.

• The concept needs the support of Westminster and the Welsh Assembly governments.

• Incorporate the airport in the rail electrification programme, the Severn Barrage Project and the deep water container port (4-way intermodal mode freight hub possibility).

• The planning and approval process will take time.

• Construction duration estimated at 6 to 7 years.

• The 2003 Newport Study (Severn Estuary Airport) needs updating and more extensive study on geology, environmental impact and costing - Need a budget!

• Submission needs approval of the Airports (Davies) Commission.

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Airport ATMs/annum ATMs/day ATMs/hour PAX/ATM  Bristol 66,000  181 10 87.2  Cardiff 29,130  80 4 41.5         Stansted 148,317 406 23 119.6  Gatwick 251,067 688 38 130.3  Heathrow 480,906 1318 73 144.6

  London City 68,792 220 12 42.5Notes: 2011 data ex-CAA

LCY operates a 6 day week

2011 How Busy are Bristol and Cardiff Airports?

4. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic to BRS and CWL

DfT 2013 Forecast mppa

Airport Scenario 2030 2050

Bristol Low 7.7 10.7 Central 9.7 12.3 High 12.4  

Cardiff Low 0.9 1.3 Central 1.1 7.8 High 1.2  

Runway Capacity ATMs/a 2008 2030 2050Bristol 150 226 226Cardiff 105 150 150Passenger Capacity mppa  Bristol 10 12 12Cardiff 3 8 8

• Bristol’s restricted site limits its capacity expansion potential.• Cardiff only grows because of Bristol’s lack of capacity.

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3. Existing UK Airports and Wales in 2012

• Cardiff carries only 24% of Wales’ origin and destination traffic!

MSP Solutions’ Estimate based on CAA and DfT Data

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Total Wales' 2012 Passengers: 4.19 million(Cardiff 0.95 million)

SE Airports Wales Total Wales

Regional Airports Wales Total Wales

'000 million % '000 million %

     Heathrow   810 70.04 1.2      Bristol   800 5.92 13.5

     Gatwick    302 34.33 0.9      Manchester   760 19.74 3.9

     Stansted   90 17.47 0.5      Liverpool   245 4.46 5.5

     Luton    55 9.62 0.6      Birmingham   150 8.92 1.7

    London City 3 3.02 0.1      East Midlands 20 4.08 0.5

Sub Total SE Airports 1,260 134.5 0.9      Exeter   5 0.7 0.7

             Newquay   0 0.17 0

Cardiff 950 1.03 92 Sub Total Other UK Airports 1,980 43.99 4.5

Evolution of UK Income and Population Growth • SW England is forecast to grow significantly faster than the UK average.

• Wales is expected to grow at a lower rate than the average for the UK.

Underlying DfT NTEM Regional Income and Population Forecasts

NTEM UK Region/Area Income £billion Population million2011 2041 % change 2011 2041 % change

South West 48.7 63.7 31% 5.2 6.4 23%Wales 26.0 32.0 23% 3 3.3 12%London 97.0 124.9 29% 7.6 9.5 25%South East 96.0 118.5 23% 8.5 10.1 19%Eastern England 60.4 78.7 30% 5.8 7.3 26%North East 21.8 26.1 20% 2.6 2.8 11%Yorkshire and Humberside 46.6 62.0 33% 5.3 6.4 22%North West 63.9 75.7 18% 6.8 7.4 9%West Midlands 48.4 58.6 21% 5.4 6.2 14%East Midlands 40.3 52.2 30% 4.4 5.4 22%Scotland 51.2 60.7 19% 5.1 5.4 6%Total 600.4 753.3 25% 59.6 70.3 18%

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5. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of UK Aviation Trafficpassengers million

• The figures mask SE Airports issue: LHR and LGW are both full by 2020. • Critical traffic lost or forced sub-optimally into regional airports (BHX).• Bristol and Cardiff unable to exploit the full SW opportunity due to

location.

(mppa) 2010  2020     2030     2040     2050  

Low Central High Low Central High Low Central High Low Central High

 Unconstrained      Demand

211 238 259 281 281 320 359 314 391 483 350 482 661

Constrained Demand 211 236 255 277 276 313 347 306 372 451 339 447 Cannot 

meet demand

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Demand cannot be met in High Case in 2050 as insufficient runway capacity!

DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic to UK Airports • Wales and South West Passengers forced to use BHX and MAN in the long

term. Terminal Passengers by Region of surface journey to airport origin: max use 2010-2050

(constrained)

Surface to SE airportsMax Use: million passengers

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Northern Ireland 0 0 0 0 0Scotland 0 0 0 0 0North 2 2 2 1 1Midlands 6 9 10 7 5Wales 1 1 1 1 1South West 5 6 7 6 5

Regional total 14 19 20 15 12 SE passengers 89 112 136 156 167

Total surface passengers at SE Airports

103 131 157 171 179

Other airports          Northern Ireland 6 7 9 12 16Scotland 20 23 29 34 42North 28 34 43 54 66Midlands 13 15 19 29 39Wales 3 4 5 7 9South West 7 8 11 16 21

Regional total 77 90 117 153 193 SE passengers 2 4 7 17 39

Total surface passengers at other airports

78 95 124 171 231

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DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution No of Destinations by Traffic TypeConstrained Scenario • The future for Cardiff Airport as a commercial airport is not very promising.

• Bristol by contrast has a much better future.

DfT 2013 Forecast Destinations served split by airline type, 2010-2050 (constrained)

AirportScheduled LCC Charter

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Heathrow 174 173 168 170 155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gatwick 133 148 140 124 94 99 103 73 70 54 109 63 69 69 62

Stansted 52 70 82 113 88 27 37 43 46 48 65 40 43 41 39

Luton 29 33 48 45 27 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0

London City 3 2 1 2 1 47 63 65 66 61 17 3 1 0 0

                               

Manchester 80 91 117 140 163 65 54 58 59 54 100 75 84 100 121

Birmingham 50 56 64 52 37 51 21 19 11 12 19 24 28 28 0

                               

Bristol 16 18 28 36 39 60 82 89 98 90 10 7 5 8 10

                               

Cardiff 2 3 4 8 8 22 17 17 16 17 0 0 0 0 0

                               

All UK Airports 687 778 882 995 994 740 681 686 696 756 590 431 453 476 47419

Impact of Possible SE Airports Expansion on Wales and SW England

• LHR can only have one additional effective parallel new runway (old BAA scheme).

• Even then LHR not competitive with European Hubs especially AMS and CDG in long run. Not competitive with new Middle East Hubs Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Qatar.

• Thames Estuary Airports (e.g. Grain or Goodwin) provide a state-of-the-art 4 runway airport but very expensive and much further for Wales/SW England.

• Gatwick - space for one more runway: not ideal for later further expansion.

• Luton very restricted site only one other runway possible: not likely to be chosen.

• Stansted lowest cost solution for 4-runway airport; could be chosen by Davies.

• Stansted would be bad news for Wales and SW England as much further than LHR.

• Wales SW England needs to look for a new airport to meet its own needs.

• Severn Estuary location offers good intermodal connections and minimal environmental damage.

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UK Airports Wales and SW England (1)

• Cardiff Airport - next 10 years disappointing with low growth potential.

• Bristol Airport - poor site with limited long term growth potential especially for longhaul flights.

• Wales’ and SW England traffic is forced in the long run to use Birmingham Airport.

• Wales’ population and economic (income) growth disappointing in current scenarios.

• New airport (sized as Gatwick but with second runway potential) could be built in the Severn Estuary off Newport.

• Would permit 24-hour operation and attract LH and cargo traffic .

• Minimal environmental impact as flights’ landing approach and take-off would be over water.

Wales needs to join together with SW England (Bristol) to find a common solution of a major new airport to replace both Bristol and Cardiff airports.

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UK Airports Wales and SW England (2)

Submission need to be prepared for the Davies Commission as soon as possib

• Airport would create many new skilled jobs and catalyse inward investment.

• Existing Cardiff and Bristol traffic would be sufficient to “seed” new airport.

• Existing Cardiff and Bristol airport sites become housing/light industry sites and cash generated to be injected to fund the new airport development.

• New airport site needs to be considered in terms of connections to existing motorways M4/M5 and Great Western rail electrification.

• New airport site also needs to be considered in context of the Severn Barrage power generation project and new deepwater marine container port - intermodal freight hub marine/air/road/rail could be developed.

• New detailed study is required before go-ahead can be decided.

• Welsh Assembly needs to consider and support the proposal.

Submission needs to be made to the Davies Commission as soon as possible. Expression of Interest needed by 28 February 2013; Submission 19 July 2013.

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UK Airports - Cardiff Airport

Submission need to be prepared for the Davies Commission as soon as possibl

• Important to preserve as many commercial air services as possible for Wales.

• Retain current airport and airline operational jobs at the airport.

• Ensure that the British Airways wide-body aircraft heavy maintenance operation remains on the airport site.

• Try to increase cargo volumes even if this is only a marginal operation.

• It may be difficult to grow passenger traffic significantly especially as Bristol offers a much better choice of destination and frequency,

• However a new initiative could be made to try to attract new airline entrants.

• Long term objective would be to be able to transfer as much activity as possible to the new strategic Severn Estuary Airport.

Cardiff Airport needs to be supported in the Medium Term.

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DfT 2013 Forecast GDP Growth

YearReal UK GDP* growth

(%), low Real UK GDP* growth

(%), centralReal UK GDP* growth

(%), high Growth of UK consumer

expenditure (%), lowGrowth of UK consumer expenditure (%), central

Growth of UK consumer expenditure

(%), high2010 1.60 1.60 1.60 2.50 2.50 2.502011 0.30 0.30 0.30 -1.90 -1.90 -1.902012 -1.00 -0.30 0.40 0.40 1.10 1.802013 -0.20 1.00 2.30 -0.50 0.70 2.002014 -0.10 1.80 3.50 -0.90 1.00 2.702015 0.20 2.10 3.80 -1.10 0.80 2.502016 0.50 2.50 4.20 -0.90 1.10 2.802017 0.70 2.60 4.40 -0.70 1.20 3.002018 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702019 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702020 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702021 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702022 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702023 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702024 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702025 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802026 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802027 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802028 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802029 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802030 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802031 1.70 2.20 2.80 1.70 2.20 2.802032 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702033 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702034 1.60 2.10 2.60 1.60 2.10 2.602035 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702036 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702037 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702038 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702039 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702040 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802041 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802042 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802043 1.90 2.40 2.90 1.90 2.40 2.902044 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802045 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802046 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.802047 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702048 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702049 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.702050 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70

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