2013 07-22-delhi rooftop-presentation

Rooftop Revolution: Unleashing Delhi’s Solar Potential

© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 2 Source: BTI market analysis, based on data from various state tariff orders

About Rooftop Revolution - Unleashing Delhi’s Solar Potential

The report is part of Greenpeace’s campaign ‘Switch on the Sun’. The campaign emphasizes the effectiveness of solar as an energy solution to Delhi’s power needs. The report provides arguments, analysis and data to the Delhi government, its distribution companies (DISCOMS) and the people of Delhi to show why solar makes sense for the city.

What?

Within the last decade, Delhi’s electricity demand rose by an average 6% every year. From 20 billion units in 2002, the demand in all likelihood will reach over 33 billion units by 2017, a 65% growth. Given India’s growing power deficit, the rising cost of power and Delhi’s rapidly growing power demand, it will be difficult to maintain the current level of supply stability in the years to come. Further, for more than 70% of its power, the city relies on other states, which places Delhi’s power supply in a vulnerable position. Delhi’s current solar RPO is a mere 0.35% by 2017, much lower than in other states. A supposed lack of available space for solar PV in the urbanized and congested city is considered to be a barrier. However, this holds true only if large, ground mounted installations are considered. This report shows that the potential for rooftop-based solar PV systems in Delhi is significant and achievable.

Why?

© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 3

Delhi can reach 2 GW by 2020

2013 2020

DELHI 2GW

Parity driven (no government incen1ves)

Geographic perspective

How much suitable

rooftop space is available in Delhi? Grid perspective

How much solar PV

can Delhi’s grid accommodate?

(Without significant

investments)

Viability perspective

When will solar make sense for Delhi’s power consumers?

(Without government

subsidies)

Our approach

1

2 3


1.6%

of Delhi’s land 17%

of Delhi’s power demand in 2020

National Capital Territory

Source: BTI market analysis, based on data from various state tariff orders

Geographic perspective With 1,6% of its space, Delhi could have over 2,5 GW of solar installations


Geographic perspective Delhi’s residential buildings have the highest solar potential with over 1.2 GW

Potential for rooftop solar power generation for different land area types

14.9 km2

0.03 km2

4.5 km2

4.5 km2


Viability perspective Government buildings have already reached parity – residential consumer will come only in 2018

Delhi rooftop solar market size and viability (MW)

Solar for government consumers is already

viable in 2013, if projects are bundled into

individual project sizes of 2 MW. This provides scale to the installer who would save on

engineering, procurement and

logistics.


Viability perspective PV costs vary significantly with system size

Solar costs in 2013 for different system sizes in India

Over 50% cost reduction per kWp installed through

scale from 1-4 kWp to 500+ kWp


Grid perspective The grid should be able to absorb 20% of solar power

Grid handling capacity vs expected solar growth A per the US Federal Energy

Regulatory Commission , a traditional grid can accommodate up to 15% of the peak load from distributed solar PV without being destabilized, while managing load fluctuations easily

In some countries/cases PV penetration has exceeded 15% without destabilizing the grid. E.g. In Germany renewable power has made up more than 50% of overall power on its grid

The report assumes that with better forecasting and standardized connectivity Delhi’s grid can accommodate 20% of PV penetration


Parity-driven roadmap to reach 2 GW by 2020 Roadmap

Phase 1

•  Immediate parity in 2013 for bundled government projects

•  All industrial and commercial consumers reach parity

•  Government and industrial type 2 exhaust potential

Phase 2

•  Sharp ramp up in residential capacity due to parity

•  Commercial type 1 and 2 and industrial type 1 exhaust potential by 2018


Stakeholders Solar can be a win-win-win for all stakeholders

•  Save on electricity costs •  Hedge against increasing grid prices •  Additional income from power generation or

rooftop leasing •  Green power and/or CSR •  Supply security through localized generation

•  With strained fossil fuel supplies , the need of curtailing carbon emissions and rising power demand, solar could be a business opportunity

•  Better load management •  Grid stabilization

•  Energy security •  Low and stable power costs •  Creating job opportunities •  Green leadership •  Innovation and new technology push

Consumers

Government

DISCOMS


Recommendations Instead of funding solar PV, the government should facilitate it

•  Aggregate the buildings and tender them out to RESCOs

•  Own pilots as test-case and a demonstration

•  Support solar technical courses on PV installations in educational institutions

•  Encourage local solar installation/ entrepreneurs through preferential loans

•  Provide strong payment guarantees for government projects

•  Set up a risk guarantee fund for banks to lend more readily

•  Support banks in developing financial solutions (e.g., EMIs for solar home systems)

•  Analyze technical challenges •  Support gas-fired power

generation for balancing •  Provide clear and simple

guidelines, standardized permitting and connectivity procedures

•  Support forecasting and enable utilities to manage transition

•  “Delhi Rooftop Solar Map” for viability check

•  Demonstration projects on transport facilities to make idea real

•  Solar feasibility workshops for commercial and industrial customers

Skills

Government projects

Grid

Communication

Financing

1 2

3

4

5

Predictable, realis8c, long-‐term policy


International case studies

Delhi can be a global leader – and can also learn from other cities

Installed capacity (2013) 14 MW 15 MW 98 MW 23 MW

Initiatives •  Renewable Portfolio Standard

•  New York PV incentive program

•  New York solar map

•  Renewable Portfolio Standard

•  California Solar Initiative (CSI) incentive program

•  California solar map

•  Mayor’s solar Founder circle

•  GoSolar SF subsidy program

•  Nationwide feed-in tariff

•  Solar Atlas Berlin

•  Beijing sunshine schools program supported by the World bank

•  Golden sunlight demonstration projects

New York San Francisco Berlin Beijing


Reading on… For more information, please download the report

chapters)

The report can be downloaded on: www.bridgetoindia.com/our-reports

The report “Rooftop Revolution” is available in two versions: •  Full report (95 pages) with the following chapters: 1 Executive Summary 2 Introduction 3 Solar resource availability of Delhi 4 Delhi’s geographic potential for solar rooftop installations 5 Delhi’s existing solar policies and incentives 6 Integration of solar PV with the grid 7 The viability of rooftop solar PV 8 Business models for rooftop solar 9 Why rooftop solar works for stakeholders 10 Delhi solar roadmap: reaching 2 GW by 2020 11 Government policy recommendations •  Short version (15 page summary)


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2013 07-22-delhi rooftop-presentation

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