2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

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September 5, 2012 © 2012 Specialty Products Consultants, LLC and XS, Inc Specialty Products Consultants, LLC All rights reserved. XS, Inc. 2012 TURF AND ORNAMENTAL YTD SALES AND MARKET SHARE RESULTS SPCEXPRESSREPORTS WITH COMMENTARY BY GARY CURL, PRESIDENT OF SPECIALTY PRODUCTS CONSULTANTS, LLC With nearly 85% of the market year (10 months - October-July) completed all T&O product sales are up moderately. Mild winter weather and an extended spring season contributed to particularly good sales growth for both herbicides and insecticides. The overall sales growth has been offset somewhat by drought related weakness in the fungicide market. The 2012 season was earlier than normal and same store sales for the first five months of calendar year 2012 outpaced the performance each month of the same period the prior year. We started hearing of some sluggishness creeping into the market around mid-May and in June saw the first weakness in the market for the calendar year. Despite the drought impacting much of the country, the percentage of total T&O same store sales in July were unchanged from July of 2011. Good market year growth of fungicides in the Southeast region (+8.4%) has been offset by considerable weakness (-3.7%) in the Northeast and moderate weakness for fungicide sales in the Midwest (-1.4%). The net result is essentially a nationwide Y-O-Y flat performance (+0.7%). With the drought now impacting nearly two-thirds (63.2%) of the continental U.S., the outlook for YOY growth in fungicides for the 2012 season is likely to be diminished considerably.

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SPCexpress reports with commentary by Gary Curl, President of Specialty Products Consultants, LLC

Transcript of 2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

Page 1: 2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

September 5, 2012 © 2012 Specialty Products Consultants, LLC and XS, Inc

Specialty Products Consultants, LLC All rights reserved. XS, Inc.

2012 TURF AND ORNAMENTAL YTD SALES AND MARKET SHARE RESULTS

SPCEXPRESS™ REPORTS WITH COMMENTARY BY GARY CURL, PRESIDENT OF SPECIALTY PRODUCTS CONSULTANTS, LLC

With nearly 85% of the market

year (10 months - October-July)

completed all T&O product sales

are up moderately. Mild winter

weather and an extended spring

season contributed to particularly

good sales growth for both

herbicides and insecticides. The

overall sales growth has been offset

somewhat by drought related

weakness in the fungicide market.

The 2012 season was earlier than normal and same store

sales for the first five months of calendar year 2012

outpaced the performance each month of the same

period the prior year. We started hearing of some

sluggishness creeping into the market around mid-May

and in June saw the first weakness in the market for the

calendar year. Despite the drought impacting much of

the country, the percentage of total T&O same store sales

in July were unchanged from July of 2011.

Good market year growth of fungicides in the Southeast region

(+8.4%) has been offset by considerable weakness (-3.7%) in the

Northeast and moderate weakness for fungicide sales in the

Midwest (-1.4%). The net result is essentially a nationwide Y-O-Y

flat performance (+0.7%). With the drought now impacting

nearly two-thirds (63.2%) of the continental U.S., the outlook for

YOY growth in fungicides for the 2012 season is likely to be

diminished considerably.

Page 2: 2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

September 5, 2012 © 2012 Specialty Products Consultants, LLC and XS, Inc

Specialty Products Consultants, LLC All rights reserved. XS, Inc.

MANUFACTURER’S YTD SALES PERFORMANCE

With few exceptions, most

manufacturers are experiencing

good or very good year-over-

growth in sales. PBI/Gordon, FMC,

Dow, Arysta, Nufarm, and UPI have

all seen double digit Y-O-Y end user

sales growth.

Dow appears to be the biggest share

point gainer having increased 0.8% total

T&O share points. We believe this

performance is largely a result of the

spring weather that contributed to an

extended application season for pre-

emergent herbicides which benefited

sales of DIMENSION®. Bayer, FMC, and

PBI/Gordon have each picked up about

a half a share point.

Page 3: 2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

September 5, 2012 © 2012 Specialty Products Consultants, LLC and XS, Inc

Specialty Products Consultants, LLC All rights reserved. XS, Inc.

COMPARISON OF THE “BIG-5” MANUFACTURER TO THE OTHERS

Year-to-date sales (October 1-

July 31) for the “Big 5” basic

manufacturers (BASF, Bayer,

Dow, Syngenta, and Valent) are

up five percent. All other

manufacturer’s sales, including

private label brands have

grown 4.6%. Note: for this

report, DuPont’s insecticide

business has been rolled into

Syngenta’s portfolio in light of the recent acquisition announcement and IMPRELIS® herbicide has been excluded.

Though this won’t be news to most readers, it is nevertheless

interesting to visually note the difference between the aggregate

sales curve for the Big 5 and the aggregate sales curve of other

manufacturers. The Big 5 curve is front loaded into the first quarter

of the market year (October-December) reflecting the impact of

these manufacturers’ early booking programs. The sales curve of

the rest of the industry is weighted more to the in-season months of

March-May.

The total market share for the “big 5” is essentially equally split

with the rest of the industry and the Year-Over-Year percentage is

virtually unchanged.

Big 5

Other Mfrs.

Page 4: 2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

September 5, 2012 © 2012 Specialty Products Consultants, LLC and XS, Inc

Specialty Products Consultants, LLC All rights reserved. XS, Inc.

SHIFTS IN PRE-EMERGENT HERBICIDES

Dow’s DIMENSION® (dithiopyr) gained 1.9 share

points and commands an impressive 30.2% share

of the U.S. pre-emergent herbicide market. To

date, sales of generic dithiopyr products have not

made much inroad into the pre-emergent

market. Bayer’s SPECTICLE® (indaziflam) herbicide

gained 5 share points to 13.0% share. It appears

that SPECTICLE has gained share at the expense of

atrazine and some of the other DNA herbicides

used on warm season grasses and not at the

expense of RONSTAR® (oxadiazon) which

shows a share gain of 2.6 share points.

Same store sales growth for DIMENSION was exceptionally

robust in the Midwest and West regions this past

year. Somewhat surprisingly, same store sales of

DIMENSION have declined year-over-year in the Northeast

region.

Sales growth for SPECTICLE was particularly strong in the

Southeast. It’s likely that calendar year sales of SPECTICLE

will approach $10 million in its second full year in the

market.

Page 5: 2012 Turf & Ornamental YTD to Sales & Market Commentary

September 5, 2012 © 2012 Specialty Products Consultants, LLC and XS, Inc

Specialty Products Consultants, LLC All rights reserved. XS, Inc.

INSECTICIDE SHARE EFFECT FROM SYNGENTA’S ANNOUNCED ACQUISITION OF DUPONT’S T&O BUSINESS

Following the closing of the recently announced acquisition of DuPont’s turf insecticide business, Syngenta appears

poised to become the leading supplier of insecticides with a nearly 16% market share. Additionally, we expect

Syngenta to expand the availability of the acquired insecticide chemistry into the ornamental production market.