2012 NFL Team Previews

09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 105i l lustrat ion by CHUCK ANDERSON PHOTO REFERENCE, CLOCKWISE FROM TOP RIGHT: GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES; PAUL SPINELLI/AP IMAGES; DAVID STLUKA/AP IMAGES; GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES; STEPHAN SAVOIA/AP IMAGES

116 ESPN The Magazine 10/31/2011 photograph by PHOTOGRAPHER TEEKAY TEEKAYUT ALIST QUE QUI ODIA PERNATUSDAM REM QUIA NONSEQUOD ET QUE NUM VENDEL ID EBITIORUMQUAE SITATE

ESPN.COM POWER RANKINGS KC JOYNER’S GLOSSARY VYPA (vertical yards per attempt): productivity on throws of 11+ yards

SVYPA (stretch-vertical ypa): productivity on throws of 20+ yards

GBYPA (good-blocking ypa): ypa on plays with good blocking

GBR (good-blocking rate): percentage of time the o!ense gives a ball carrier quality blocking

GBP (good-blocking productivity): uses GBR and GBYPA to define a team’s overall performance running the ball

BDR (bad-decision rate): the rate at which a QB makes an error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the D

Pythagorean winning percentage: the estimate of a team’s winning percentage given its points scored and points allowed

STEELERS CHARGERS

STEELERS PATRIOTS

RAVENSBRONCOS

BRONCOS TEXANS

COWBOYS

PACKERS

PACKERS

49ERS

EAGLES

EAGLES

49ERS BEARS

49ERSSAINTS

Green Bay New England N.Y. Giants San Francisco Baltimore Houston Philadelphia Pittsburgh Chicago

New Orleans Atlanta Detroit Dallas Denver Cincinnati San Diego Kansas City Seattle

Tennessee N.Y. Jets Bu!alo Carolina Arizona Tampa Bay Washington Oakland Miami

St. Louis Cleveland Jacksonville Minnesota Indianapolis

For the latest Power Rankings, check ESPN.com every Tuesday throughout the season, starting Sept. 4.

BRONCOS

PATRIOTS

BRONCOS PACKERS

PACKERS

Lawsuits, bounties, suspensions—who needs ’em? Come Sept. 5, the Cowboys visit the Giants and will help us forget a regrettable o!season in the first of the NFL’s 256 throwdowns. But why wait? Spoiler alert: We asked the folks at AccuScore to simulate all of the games, then we turned those results—down to the last decimal point—into a projected playo! bracket. And guess what the computers spit out: a season for the ages. The Packers are going 19–0, beating the Broncos in the Super Bowl. The Rams are going 0–16, beating the 1–15 Browns and Jaguars in the Matt Barkley Bowl. As for the Cowboys at the Giants? The G-Men win 24.4-23.4! If you don’t trust the geeks, fine. You’ll also get insight on every team from a former GM, a draft guru, a football scientist, two ex-scouts and three Vegas wiseguys. So crack open the playbook and study up. The next o!season is closer than you think.

THE MAG’S PLAYOFF PICKS

AFC NFC

Super Bowl XLVIIThis bracket? All us. No computers, no

talking heads. Go ahead and disagree. (Sorry, can’t use that line about East Coast bias.)

Clockwise, from top right: Justin Smith, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Elvis Dumervil, Rob Gronkowski.

09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 107BUFFALO BILLS106 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 ROBERT E . KLEIN/AP IMAGES

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New England Patriots Buffalo Bills2011 record: –Lost in Super Bowl

2011 record: – Fourth in AFC East

PREDICTED SCORE

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: The Pats can’t run the ball.Reality: The Patriots were just 20th in rushing yards and tied for 21st in ypc among NFL teams last season, but they tied for the second-best mark in good-blocking rate, showing that the line can open holes, and the upgrade at running back from BenJarvus Green-Ellis (6.0 good-blocking ypa, third to last among backs) to Stevan Ridley (8.5 good-blocking ypa) should pay dividends.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Chan Gailey runs a dink-and-dunk o!ense.Reality: Gailey knows the value of going deep. Fitzpatrick’s 172 vertical attempts last season ranked 12th in the NFL, and WRs Stevie Johnson and David Nelson are viable stretch threats. The head coach might let Fitz air it out more in 2012 if the QB can reduce his 7.2% bad-decision rate on vertical passes (28th in the league).

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERDE Jake BequetteYou could make the case that Bequette was the best pass rusher in the SEC in 2011 (third in FBS in sacks per game). And to think, New England was able to draft him 90th overall out of Arkansas. At 6'4", 265 pounds, he’s productive and versatile, capable of playing both DE and OLB for Bill Belichick, who loves to mix and match.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERLB Nigel BradhamIn 2011, Bu!alo drafted LSU’s Sheppard in the third round, knowing he didn’t stand out in any specific area. He was productive, though not disruptive, and played right away. This year’s fourth-round pick, Bradham of Florida State, fits the same profile. He started 37 straight games in Tallahassee, and his work ethic will show early.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning WR Brandon LloydA lethal passing attack will get even more potent. Lloyd, a former Ram, provides a downfield threat that was missing in 2011. He’s not a burner, but his athleticism and Brady’s accuracy will force teams to move a safety over the top. And that will help get Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez open underneath. As if they needed more help.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning Mario Williams

The on-field linchpin of a defensive overhaul, Williams will be charged with providing stability to a unit that allowed the third-most points in 2011. At 6'6", 292 pounds, with a sub-4.8 40, he demands multiple blockers and will combine with Anderson in new D-coordinator Dave Wannstedt’s 4-3 to form what should be the top D-line in the AFC East.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsNo other team in the league can match this group for productivity. The Pats can spread the field with multireceiver sets or show bunch looks that use motion. Either way, they excel at finding one-on-one situations for Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who are masters at adjusting routes on sight alone.

WORST UNIT Defensive backsThe secondary regressed in 2011, giving up too many big pass plays. While the Pats prefer more man looks to allow for more blitzes, they have to mix in some zone to prevent those downfield strikes. Corners Devin McCourty and Ras-I Dowling and safeties Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory lack elite talent, so they’ll have to stick to the schemes. —GARY HORTON

INSIDER’S TAKEBEST UNIT Defensive lineDEs Williams and Mark Anderson, both acquired as free agents, have tremendous first-step quickness and provide a great pass rush o! the edge for a D that posted just 29 sacks in 2011 (27th in the NFL). Their presence will free up DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams—quick, one-gap penetrators who can’t be single-blocked.

WORST UNIT LinebackersThe starters are average and don’t make enough impact plays. Weakside LB Nick Barnett and strongside LB Kirk Morrison are on the wrong side of 30, and MLB Kelvin Sheppard made 70 tackles but didn’t create a single turnover as a rookie last season. Even if the front four create havoc as expected, it’s questionable if the guys behind them can finish plays. —G.H.

WES WELKER, WR

MARIO WILLIAMS, DE

The trickiest part is figuring out how many passes he’ll throw. Last year, Brady had 611 attempts, but in 2010 he threw only 492. We’re projecting 587 attempts, with fewer yards but better accuracy.

His ypa dropped from 7.5 in the first half of 2011 to 6.2 in the second half. If he truly played the final nine games with cracked ribs, as reported, his numbers could be surprisingly good in 2012.

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FBO POCKET PROJECTORTom Brady’s 2011 stats: 65.6% comp., 5,235 yards, 39 TDs, 12 INTs

Brady FitzpatrickAverage starting QB Average starting QB

Playo!s? The better question: Super Bowl? Eyeing the new ends in Bu!alo.

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The Pats are considered the NFL’s best team (third in our book) and perceived to have the easiest schedule (yep) and an improved D (nope). They are the only team since 2002 to have 13-plus wins in consecutive seasons (twice). But don’t bet on it again. —PredictionMachine.com

Few teams had a better o!season than the Bills. They kept their explosive o!ensive talent and added some on D. After a 1–7 road record in ’11, their nondivisional away games include the Browns, Cards and Colts. And the AFC East isn’t too taxing. They’ll win at least eight. —P.M.

VEGAS VIBE VEGAS VIBE

Chance of winning division Chance of making playo!s Chance of winning division Chance of making playo!s

Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.


2012 projected record

–2012 projected record

–

FBO POCKET PROJECTORRyan Fitzpatrick’s 2011 stats:62% comp., 3,832 yards, 24 TDs, 23 INTs

Completion percentage Completion percentage

Touchdowns Touchdowns

Yards Yards

Interceptions Interceptions

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67.1% 61.4%

37 25

11 18

4,939 3,589

61.7% 61.7%

24.4 24.4

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3,844.4 3,844.4

169 targets in 2011, second most in NFL

18.9 vertical ypa in 2011, second highest in NFL

(in Toronto)

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Posted at least one sack in 32 of his last 66 games

Has 12 multiple sack games since 2007

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New York Jets Miami Dolphins2011 record: – Second in AFC East

2011 record: –Third in AFC East

PREDICTED SCORE

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Sanchez’s lack of leadership killed the Jets’ passing attack.Reality: No, it was New York’s decision to make an over-the-hill Plaxico Burress its primary vertical target. His 6.7 vertical ypa was the lowest of any receiver with 50 or more vertical targets. Eliminate Burress and Sanchez shows no drop-o! in vertical productivity (10.8 VYPA in 2010, 10.7 VYPA in 2011). Hill and Schilens should be upgrades.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Miami has the NFL’s worst o!ense.Reality: The Fins lost their top WR and deep threat, Brandon Marshall, who averaged 12.0 vertical ypa in 2011, tied for 29th in the NFL. But Miami was ninth in run-blocking productivity, and Bush took advantage (8.7 good-blocking ypa, tied for 10th in the league). The addition of rookie RT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) will also help. There are certainly teams with bigger issues on o!ense (see: Jaguars).

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERLB Demario DavisDavis didn’t get a lot of pub in college, but the third-round pick out of Arkansas State is just the type of athlete who inspires Rex Ryan’s creativity. The kid can flat-out fly and not just as an up-the-field pass rusher. His range really shows against the run—he covers ground quickly from sideline to sideline.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERTE Michael EgnewMiami’s receiving weapons—Bess, Naanee, Brian Hartline—are duds, but Egnew, a third-rounder out of Missouri, has legitimate mismatch athleticism. He can run a sub-4.6 40 at 6'5", 251 pounds, meaning LBs will struggle to keep up, and DBs won’t be able to handle his size. Look for Miami to use plenty of two-TE sets with Egnew and Fasano.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVETrading for TebowPicking him up was gutsy—and the right move. Still, there are two potential problems. The PR issue could leak into the locker room, where the Jets have enough drama, and Tebow takes a lot of on-field punishment. If he becomes a key component and then gets hurt, the burden to carry the team will be even greater for Sanchez.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting TannehillNot much went right this o!season, and with Garrard’s health uncertain, the future is now for the Dolphins. Tannehill, the overall No. 8 pick, looks to me like he will get the nod over Moore to start Week 1, and his familiarity with the schemes of O-coordinator Mike Sherman, his head coach at Texas A&M, should shorten the rookie learning curve.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive backsThis group should be special. The Jets feature an excellent nickel package of CBs Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson, who all love to take chances on big plays in aggressive man coverage with press technique. The key will be safeties Eric Smith, Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry, the last of whom has the tough task of replacing Jim Leonhard.

WORST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsThis group doesn’t scare defenses. A banged-up Santonio Holmes is the one deep threat, though he has been a bigger threat to team chemistry of late. Chaz Schilens and Jeremy Kerley fill out the three-wide package, but the hope is that rookie Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech develops quickly into a vertical target. Otherwise, TE Dustin Keller has to move the chains. —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersThe Dolphins are one of many teams switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3, but they will still show hybrid looks to take advantage of rush specialist Wake, who will be at DE in their base set. Veteran Karlos Dansby can anchor the middle, which should allow OLBs Koa Misi and rookie Olivier Vernon to provide an improved blitz from the edge.

WORST UNIT Wide receiversIt’s hard to run a West Coast scheme that relies on yards after the catch when the personnel isn’t explosive. Davone Bess is the top receiver—and he’s a slot guy. On the outside, Legedu Naanee can’t stretch the field and will easily be handled in single coverage. To compensate, the Fins must use the pass-catching skills of TE Anthony Fasano and RB Reggie Bush. —G.H.

4.1 ypa vs. short passes, tied for third lowest in NFL among CBs with at least 32 pass targets

14.5 tackles for loss, tied for 19th in the NFL

Has a sack in 18 of his past 32 games

DARRELLE REVIS, CB

CAMERON WAKE, LB

These numbers are based on the idea that Sanchez will lose about 100 snaps to the Tim Tebow package. Of course, your guess is as good as ours as to how that situation—and the Jets—will play out.

Whether it’s David Garrard, Moore or Ryan Tannehill under center, we don’t have much confidence that Joe Philbin’s new system will mesh with a team that tied for last in the NFL with 4.3 yac in 2011.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORMark Sanchez’s 2011 stats: 56.7% comp., 3,474 yards, 26 TDs, 18 INTs

Tebow and the Jets headed for hard knocks. No QB can keep Fins from diving below .500.

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The Jets obviously need to sort out the QB situation, but otherwise things feel a lot like 2011. They weren’t lucky or unlucky with regard to injuries and turnovers, and their draft was average. They win eight or nine games every season. That shouldn’t change. —P.M.

People are overreacting to Miami’s winning six of its last nine in 2011. The roster has holes, and new coach Joe Philbin could be looking long term. If the Fins get David Garrard back at full strength, seven is about right. If Ryan Tannehill takes over, they won’t make it. —P.M.





2012 projected record – –

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FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatt Moore’s 2011 stats: 60.5% comp., 2,497 yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs

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Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers2011 record: –Lost in AFC championship

2011 record: – Lost in wild-card game

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Anquan Boldin can’t beat top corners.Reality: That used to be the case. But in 2011, Boldin racked up 9.1 ypa against the league’s most consistent corners, those who gave up 9 ypa or fewer. To get a sense of his success, consider that despite missing two games, Boldin ranked seventh out of the 33 receivers with at least 35 targets in such matchups.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Wallace is not worth big money.Reality: He could be the most productive receiver in the NFL, with the second-highest ypa (11.7) last season among WRs with at least 100 targets. He also led in that category in 2010 and even bested Calvin Johnson last season in the short- vertical and stretch-vertical ypa categories. If Pittsburgh isn’t willing to show him the money, some team will pay Wallace handsomely.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERRB Bernard PierceThe Ravens gave Rice a new deal in the o!season, and Pierce, a third-round pick out of Temple, will be a key to keeping the star healthy. Pierce is explosive, even at 218 pounds, and will get his share of early-down looks on an o!ense deter-mined to pound teams. Pierce is a liability as a pass catcher, but Rice will be fresher for third downs.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPEROT Mike AdamsIf the second-round pick out of Ohio State had come o! the board midway through Round 1, it wouldn’t have been a surprise. He hasn’t always played up to his talent, but Adams was the best pass protector in the draft after overall No. 4 pick Matt Kalil. If Adams heals quickly from a sprained MCL, he might even start the season at left tackle.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting LB Courtney Upshaw The second-round pick out of Alabama represents a much-needed addition to a front seven that is depleted after Terrell Suggs’ Achilles injury. Upshaw (6'2" 272 pounds) seals the edge well and is good against the run, but asking him to make up for Suggs’ sack total (14) will be too much. He still should prove valuable in the pass rush before the end of the season.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEHiring OC Todd Haley It remains to be seen what the Steelers o!ense will look like under Haley, the former Chiefs head coach, but I expect Pittsburgh will be more ground and pound, based on KC’s look the past two seasons. That raises the question: Do you want to limit WR Mike Wallace’s targets for the sake of this backfield?

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive backsReed has led this unit with instincts and playmaking skills for a decade. Even though he’s slower, the eight-time Pro Bowler still gets to a lot of balls, and SS Bernard Pollard is the perfect complement in run support. CBs Lardarius Webb, Jimmy Smith and Cary Williams can play man press schemes, and the group is good in turn-and-run situations (NFL-high 112 deflections).

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineRG Marshal Yanda and RT Michael Oher are sound, which is good because RB Ray Rice loves to run right. But the left side is another story: C Matt Birk is smart, but he’s 36. There is a big hole at guard, and LT Bryant McKinnie continues to be out of shape. The group is better at run blocking than pass protec-tion, which may force Oher to the opposite side. —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersThe Steelers’ window is beginning to close, but this is still a dominating unit—if it can stay healthy. OLBs James Harrison and Woodley generate sacks in bunches, ILBs Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote are solid in run and pass contain-ment, and Jason Worilds, Chris Carter and Sean Spence provide good depth.

WORST UNIT Running backsWhen healthy, Pittsburgh’s backs aren’t terrible. But Rashard Mendenhall is still sidelined while recovering from a January ACL injury. That leaves Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer, both nagged by injuries this preseason, to split carries. Add to the list starting FB David Johnson’s torn ACL and an uptick to the running game is a tall order. —G.H.

57 INTs since 2002, most in the NFL

1,463 INT return yards, second in NFL history

NFL-record seven straight playoff games with a sack

At least one sack in 22 of last 37 games

ED REED, FSLAMARR WOODLEY, LB

In 2011, Flacco threw for his fewest TDs since he was a rookie, but our forecast shows his ypa mark and TD rate to be much closer to his career numbers (7.1, 4.1%) than last year’s down stats (6.7, 3.7%).

The problem isn’t forecasting Big Ben’s play but how often he’ll be hit. Since the AFL-NFL merger, only three QBs took more sacks in their first eight seasons: Neil Lomax, Randall Cunningham and Ken O’Brien.

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FBO POCKET PROJECTORJoe Flacco’s 2011 stats: 57.6% comp., 3,610 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs

Flacco RoethlisbergerAverage starting QB Average starting QB

Same old story: The Ravens’ D is key. The clock is ticking for the Steelers.

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Usually, the questions are on o!ense, but they locked up Ray Rice. The D is older, and Terrell Suggs is likely gone for the year. That hurts against a tough schedule, with the AFC North squaring o! against the NFC East. Too close to call this one. —MadduxSports.com

Professional gamblers rarely advocate taking the over with a double-digit line, but in 2011, Pittsburgh was one of the NFL’s unluckiest teams (minus-13 turnover margin) and was hit hard with key injuries. One extra win and the Steelers would have won the North. —M.S.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORBen Roethlisberger’s 2011 stats: 63.2% comp., 4,077 yards, 21 TDs, 14 INTs



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Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns2011 record: –Lost in wild-card game

2011 record: –Fourth in AFC North

PREDICTED SCORE

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: Cincy’s D will crumble.Reality: The Bengals went 0–7 against playo! teams in 2011 and allowed 24-plus points to five of them. But their defense was one of five units to rack up 40-plus sacks and force QBs into a poor bad-decision rate (3.0% or higher). The others to hit those marks: 49ers, Giants, Eagles and Ravens. That’s fine company—and now first-rounder Dre Kirkpatrick (Bama) joins the secondary.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: Cleveland’s D is abysmal.Reality: The Browns had issues, but don’t overlook their strengths. They tied for eighth in vertical ypa allowed (10.2), were ninth in stretch-vertical ypa allowed (11.6) and tied for eighth in good-blocking ypa allowed (7.1). If those numbers repeat and CB Joe Haden (career-worst 8.0 ypa allowed in 2011) emerges stronger from a likely suspension, the D should boost a questionable o!ense.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Mohamed Sanu Cincinnati has a clear No. 1 target in A.J. Green, and Sanu, a third-round steal out of Rutgers, could fill the void at No. 2. He gets knocked for lacking top-end speed, but you can’t argue with his great ball skills and willingness to play in tra"c. With teams forced to bracket Green, Sanu should see plenty of open space.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Josh GordonThe Browns surprised folks when they used the supplemental draft to grab the former Baylor standout. You don’t make that pick unless you know the player can help right away. Gordon has the size (6'4", 220) and speed (4.52 40) to create mismatches and could start early on a team desperate for impact receivers.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning Green-EllisThe Law Firm provides the Bengals with a dependable all-around back. He’s not flashy, but I expect he’ll be a huge upgrade over Benson. Green-Ellis possesses a high football IQ, keeps the ball o! the ground (no fumbles in his career) and is a great blocker. Benson didn’t have near the intangibles.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting RichardsonHe’s a once-in-a-generation talent. Only a few backs in the NFL have the stamina and capacity to be an every-down back, and Richardson should join that group. When I was with the Colts, we were always thrilled when the Jags took MJD out of the game. I suspect opponents will feel the same when they see Richardson trot to the sideline.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive lineThis 4-3 front will occasionally morph into a 3-4 and is very e!ective at winning one-on-one matchups using twists and stunts. The defense had 45 sacks in 2011 (fifth in the NFL), and that number should increase with Atkins and DE Michael Johnson coming o! breakout seasons.

WORST UNIT Running backsMarvin Lewis likes to think of his o!ense as a run-first attack, even though the passing game should be better equipped. The Bengals just don’t have the personnel to keep it on the ground. Former Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is more explosive on the stretch play than the departed Cedric Benson, but he has never really been “the guy,” which will likely force Lewis to use more of a back-by-committee approach. —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT O!ensive lineThomas keys an underrated unit that finally has the chance to block for an elite back once overall No. 3 pick Trent Richardson returns from a knee scope. Center Alex Mack hasn’t missed a start in three seasons; second-year LG Jason Pinkston and rookie RT Mitchell Schwartz (Cal) appear equally consistent. The Browns are flexible, playing some zone and man packages and keeping defenses guessing.

WORST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsThis is a conservative West Coast o!ense, which is a product of not having playmakers to stretch the D. Greg Little was uneven as a go-to target as a rookie, and return specialist Josh Cribbs was No. 2. Mohamed Massaquoi’s production has regressed, and tight ends have been nonexistent. —G.H.

Played every snap of five-year career

Made Pro Bowl in first five seasons (equaling Jim Brown)

GENO ATKINS, DT

JOE THOMAS, LT

The Bengals were 29th in the NFL with just 4.5 yac, particularly poor for an o!ense designed to hit WRs on the run. Improve the yac and Dalton improves his yardage total. That’s what we’re projecting.

Put a short-route passer into a short- route o!ense and you get short numbers, especially for a rookie. Did we mention that Browns WRs tied Dolphins WRs for the NFL’s lowest yac (4.3) in 2011?

FBO POCKET PROJECTORAndy Dalton’s 2011 stats: 58.1% comp., 3,398 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs

A much tamer season awaits Dalton & Co. The rookie excitement will fade in Week 1.

WinLoss

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins


LVH over/under wins

In 2011, about every professional sports bettor I know had action on the Bengals going under 5.5. We all lost. But the Bengals didn’t beat a single playo! team, and the stats say they were closer to a 7–9 team. With a tougher schedule, there’s no chance they win nine. —M.S.

There’s no arguing that Andy Dalton and Cam Newton played well last year, but I still bet under on teams with rookie starting quarterbacks. RB Trent Richardson will aid QB Brandon Weeden, but the D is the strength of this team. I can’t see how they get to six wins. —M.S.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORBrandon Weeden’s 2011 stats (at OK St.): 72.3% comp., 4,727 yards, 37 TDs, 13 INTs

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2012 PROJECTION 2012 PROJECTIONAverage starting QB Average starting QB

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7.5 sacks, tied for NFL lead among interior linemen

First interior DL to lead team outright in sacks since ’96

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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 115BRIAN A . WESTERHOLT/GETTY IMAGES114 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 TOM DIPACE/AP IMAGES

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AFC South AFC South

Houston Texans Tennessee Titans2011 record: –Lost in divisional round

2011 record: –Second in AFC South

PREDICTED SCORE

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Andre Johnson is the key to the Texans’ passing attack.Reality: Johnson is one of the most explosive WRs in the NFL and was part of the reason Houston posted 7.9 ypa last season, tied for sixth in the league. But Texans QBs tallied a respectable 7.7 ypa on passes thrown to someone other than Johnson. Even if his injury woes continue, this aerial assault should still perform at a high level.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Losing Britt halts the Titans’ deep attack.Reality: Britt missed almost all of 2011, and the team’s QBs were still able to notch a 12.0 vertical ypa mark, tied for seventh best in the NFL. The development of Wright (15.4 vertical ypa at Baylor in 2011) and Jared Cook (19.8 vertical ypa, tops among TEs) should make Britt’s return from ACL surgery a luxury rather than a necessity.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERDE Jared CrickA year ago, I would have graded Crick as a possible first-round pick. Based on his production at Nebraska, he looked like a J.J. Watt clone. But injuries caught up to Crick as a senior, and he fell to Round 4. At full strength, Crick (6'4", 276 pounds) could back up or play next to Watt as another brick in the wall Houston is trying to rebuild.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERDT Mike MartinIn 2011, Tennessee got a steal in the fifth round with DT Karl Klug; this year Martin appears to be a similar find in Round 3. He isn’t the biggest (306 pounds) or fastest, but he’s absolutely relentless and can work free inside because of his powerful hands. It’s hard to imagine that this Michigan man won’t see snaps early and often.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting LB Whitney Mercilus After an o!season in which DE Mario Williams walked and LB DeMeco Ryans was traded, the Texans’ first-round pick out of Illinois will be asked to help replace their production. That’s a lot of pressure on a rookie who is moving from being a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB. But he has the credentials: 16 sacks and nine forced fumbles in 2011.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting WR Kendall WrightPlagued by the antics and injuries of Kenny Britt, the Titans are counting on Wright to be the reliable big-play receiver they need. The first-rounder out of Baylor won’t be a smash right away, especially if Hasselbeck is replaced by Locker at some point. But he has the tools to become a next-generation Derrick Mason.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Running backsThis is a terrific one-two punch. Foster and backup Ben Tate are big-play backs, and the Texans have a well-designed attack, featuring good zone-blocking principles. Foster and Tate are one-cut runners, but they have the patience to let blocks form; they know how to break it to the weak side as well. To further strengthen this unit, Houston will use James Casey as a lead fullback.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineThe left side is solid. The problem is that the run game is right-leaning. The Texans will have new starters at right guard (Antoine Caldwell) and right tackle (Rashad Butler). They must pick up a di"cult scheme quickly, as inconsistent run blocking can also a!ect Houston’s play-action. —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT O!ensive lineThis is a physical man-blocking group that throws in zone looks to accommodate the backs. Roos and RT David Stewart are the anchors; the inside guys aren’t as polished but are consistent. The Titans will add more two-TE sets this season and use FB Quinn Johnson to free RB Chris Johnson, who should bounce back from a down year.

WORST UNIT Defensive lineThe depth is okay, but the unit just isn’t explosive. The D had 28 sacks in 2011, fewer than every team but the Bucs. With only eight of those sacks coming from the ends, the Titans added Kamerion Wimbley in free agency. In a 4-3 front, they want the pressure to come from the front four to protect the back seven, but that might be too much to ask of a young line. —G.H.

NFL-leading 141.6 ypg from scrimmage

Consecutive seasons of 1,000 rush yards and 600 receiving yards

ARIAN FOSTER, RB

MICHAEL ROOS, LT

Houston’s RB tandem will limit Schaub’s number of attempts and, in turn, his opportunities for passing touchdowns. His numbers will certainly increase after he missed six games due to injury in 2011.

By our projections, the Titans face the NFL’s toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses. Hasselbeck could easily bust, leading to Jake Locker, who showed little promise as a rookie.

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FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatt Schaub’s 2011 stats: 61% comp., 2,479 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs

Schaub HasselbeckAverage starting QB Average starting QB

As Foster goes, so goes this division. Hasselbeck in the playo!s would be a miracle.

WinLossBye/tie Bye

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LVH over/under wins

Last season, the D went from one of the NFL’s worst to one of its best. The o!ense remains potent. With a kind schedule, this team is popular. But Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are gone, and Matt Schaub is fragile. Houston won’t be as good. —WunderdogSports.com

Barring injury, Chris Johnson has to be better. But Matt Hasselbeck is close to finished, and Jake Locker doesn’t excite us. The Titans didn’t do much in free agency. We didn’t like their draft. The schedule is tough. They’ll struggle to be a .500 team. —W.S.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatt Hasselbeck’s 2011 stats:61.6% comp., 3,571 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs



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3,735 3,592

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Was on field for every snap in 2011 (1,045 plays)

112-game active starting streak

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14.9 14.9

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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 117PHELAN M. EBENHACK/AP IMAGES116 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 BRIAN SPURLOCK/US PRESSWIRE

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Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars2011 record: – Fourth in AFC South

2011 record: –Third in AFC South

PREDICTED SCORE

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: The Colts will continue to air it out.Reality: O-coordinator Bruce Arians has never had a team rank higher than 15th in pass attempts in his eight seasons of calling plays. (His o!enses have averaged only 504 pass attempts per year.) Luck also operated out of a run-first system at Stanford—his teams never threw the ball more than 45% of the time in a season—and that trend will continue, at least to start his pro career.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: Justin Blackmon is the Jags’ best WR.Reality: He was the biggest-name addition this o!season, but free agent signee Laurent Robinson will make the biggest plays. In 2011, his 9.7 ypa against tough CBs (9.0 ypa allowed or fewer) was fifth among WRs with at least 35 targets against those corners. Considering Blackmon’s decline at OK State (12.1 ypa in 2010, 9.0 ypa in 2011) and o!-field issues, it’s clear who should be No. 1.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERTE Dwayne AllenThe strong Luck-Fleener connection should continue at the NFL level, but don’t be surprised if the third-round pick out of Clemson becomes well acquainted with his new QB early. Allen (6'3", 255) is versatile enough to line up on the outside and should benefit in two-tight-end looks that Luck used so often in college.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERDE Andre BranchJacksonville hasn’t had a decent pass rush in a while, but the second-round pick out of Clemson could produce immediate dividends. Branch uses a quick first step and leverage to turn the corner on blockers. He also has a decent club move to get OTs o! balance. For an end, he lacks bulk (6'5", 265), but his quickness will create disruption.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting LuckThe torch has been passed—and what a heavy torch it is. I worry about Luck’s protection, and while rookie TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen can play, there’s not much oomph left in the vertical passing game. The overall No. 1 pick might be used to that from his time at Stanford, but he’s not playing against UCLA’s D anymore.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting P Bryan AngerIt might be indicative of the Jags’ status that taking a punter in the third round could be the team’s biggest pickup. But the Cal product will be a field flipper for a D that could use the extra yards. And extra yards on every punt could easily add up to more field goals for kicker Josh Scobee, who can boom it through the Jacksonville wind.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersWith the Colts’ switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Greg Manusky, the D’s two best players, DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, become OLBs—at least on early downs. ILBs Kavell Conner and Angerer (likely out through Week 3 with a broken foot) are underrated and athletic, and they will stay on the field for all three downs. This group can blitz from any direction and should create a lot of big plays.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineThe Colts return only two starters from 2011, LT Anthony Castonzo and LG Je! Linkenbach; the rest are casto!s and underachievers. They’ll try to be a more physical man-blocking group, but that’s tough to do with guys built for finesse, not power. Pass protection could be an issue. —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Running backsA healthy dose of MJD is what new head coach Mike Mularkey will continue to give opposing D’s. A true every-down back, Jones-Drew is an excellent zone scheme runner with one-cut-and-go techniques. The Jags will even throw in some stretch plays to get him outside. Their best chance to be e!ective is in two-back sets with lead FB Greg Jones, keeping pressure o! young QB Blaine Gabbert.

WORST UNIT Defensive lineThe Jags sorely lack impact players up front. The key is at tackle, where Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu haven’t been disruptive enough to help the outside rush. DE Jeremy Mincey’s eight sacks surprised in 2011, but rookie Andre Branch will need to provide a major boost on the other edge. —G.H.

148 tackles in 2011, fourth most in NFL

One of seven players with 100-plus tackles and 9-plus TFLs in 2011

954 carries since 2009, most of any RB

62 career rushing TDs, second among active RBs

PAT ANGERER, LB

MAURICE JONES-DREW, RB

Surprisingly, the number of rushing TDs a team has the previous year is a good indicator of how many passing TDs a rookie QB will have. The Colts had eight rushing TDs in 2011, so Luck will have the chances.

Since 1978, 10 rookie QBs averaged fewer than 5.5 ypa on at least 200 attempts (like Gabbert). The following year, seven of them averaged 6.0 ypa. The other three? They lost their starting jobs.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORAndrew Luck’s 2011 stats (at Stanford): 71.3% comp., 3,517 yards, 37 TDs, 10 INTs

Now the NFL gets to have fun with Luck puns. MJD is still good—the team still isn’t.

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LVH over/under wins

Last season was a lost cause, but the Colts weren’t as bad as their record. Teams with three or fewer wins and near the bottom of the NFL in scoring di!erential tend to improve by an average of four wins the next season. Andrew Luck is not a typical rookie QB either. —W.S.

Jack Del Rio is out, Mike Mularkey is in (that helps) and Blaine Gabbert can’t be worse than last year. But if he still stinks, Chad Henne is capable. The D should remain solid against a softer 2012 schedule. The Jags aren’t good, but you don’t have to be to win six. —W.S.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORBlaine Gabbert’s 2011 stats: 50.8% comp., 2,214 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs

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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 119JACK DEMPSEY/AP IMAGES118 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 PAUL SPINELLI/AP IMAGES

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AFC West AFC West

San Diego Chargers Denver Broncos2011 record: – Second in AFC West

2011 record: –Lost in divisional round

PREDICTED SCORE

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Rivers is not the AFC West’s top QB.Reality: Peyton Manning’s move to Denver makes this a discussion for the first time in what seems like forever. But let’s not overhype Rivers’ 2011 struggles. He still ranked ninth in overall ypa (7.9) and vertical ypa (12.0). And he has always been able to compensate for less-than-elite receiving talent, so the Chargers shouldn’t feel the sting of Jackson’s departure too badly.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Champ Bailey is still one of the NFL’s best corners.Reality: Since 2007, Bailey has 11 picks and no more than three INTs in a season. Not exactly Pro Bowl numbers. And how can you be one of the NFL’s best cover corners if you’re not even the best in your division? Bailey’s 7.8 ypa allowed in 2011 was worse than four of his fellow AFC West CBs (Antoine Cason, Stanford Routt, Brandon Carr and Andre’ Goodman).

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERTE Ladarius GreenGreen won’t replace Antonio Gates this season, but he has this in common with the three-time All-Pro: a wide catch radius. The fourth-round pick from Louisiana-Lafayette uses his 6'6" frame to haul down everything. Gates has declined over the past two years, and Randy McMichael lacks much upside, so keep an eye on Green’s development.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERCB Omar BoldenThe tape shows that Bolden has the talent of a first-round pick. But the three-year starter at Arizona State dropped to the fourth round after missing his senior year with a torn ACL. If he stays healthy, there’s no reason Bolden can’t be a starter and perhaps part of the reason Bailey is ultimately moved to safety.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning WR Eddie Royal

Let’s face it: No one’s replacing Vincent Jackson, but Royal could come close. He’ll see favorable matchups playing in the slot next to Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem. Royal missed four games last season for Denver and has battled a groin injury in camp, but if he stays healthy, he has the big-play ability to make an impact in the return game.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning ManningThis one was easy, Manning’s leadership makes every player better. It might take a few games, but by midseason he will have the o!ense working with the precision we’ve come to expect. My only reservation: RBs Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman don’t seem to have the versatile skill sets Manning prefers.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersLacking an edge rush, the Chargers tied for 23rd with 32 sacks and were dead last with only seven forced fumbles in 2011. So to give nine-year vet Phillips some help, the Bolts signed free agent Jarret Johnson from Baltimore and drafted Melvin Ingram out of South Carolina. Combine them with ILBs Takeo Spikes and fast-rising Donald Butler and the Chargers have a speedy blitzing corps.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineThis is an athletically stale group that gets exposed by good pass rushers. That’s double trouble, as the Chargers will need to pass more while RB Ryan Mathews fully recovers from a broken clavicle, and the division is stacked with sackers (KC’s Tamba Hali, Denver’s Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller). —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersThe Broncos drafted Miller last year to lead the shift to a 4-3. His 11.5 sacks invigorated the pass rush, which went from last (23 sacks) to tied for 10th (41). MLB Joe Mays had a breakout season (75 tackles), and OLB D.J. Williams had five sacks but will miss six games for a PED suspension. Fortunately, supersub Wesley Woodyard led the team with 97 tackles.

WORST UNIT Defensive lineElvis Dumervil got his wish to play defensive end and had 9.5 sacks. So how is this the worst unit? Denver hasn’t had a run defense ranked above 22nd since 2006. DE Robert Ayers seemingly has more position changes than sacks. The tackles are a mystery. Ty Warren missed 2011 with a torn triceps, and Justin Bannan has switched teams three straight o!seasons. —G.H.

60 career sacks

Started all 89 of the games he played in the past six years

Tied Broncos rookie record with 11.5 sacks

19.5 tackles for loss, sixth in the NFL

SHAUN PHILLIPS, LB

VON MILLER, LB

Rivers threw 11 TDs and 14 INTs in his first eight games of 2011 but tossed 16 TDs and 6 INTs in his final eight. His second-half bump may not carry over to 2012, but it’s more in line with his career stats.

The biggest question about Manning might not be how well he throws but how often he throws. Colts o!enses were generally high on pass attempts, but John Fox–coached teams are run-heavy.

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FBO POCKET PROJECTORPhilip Rivers’ 2011 stats:62.9% comp., 4,624 yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs

Rivers ManningAverage starting QB Average starting QB

To make a run, the Chargers take to the air. Mile High crushes on a QB—again.

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The Chargers are typically prohibitive favorites in the AFC West. Now they’re underestimated. They weren’t as bad as their 8-8 record indicated. The D improved via the draft, and we like new WRs Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem. They’ll get 10 wins. —MadduxSports.com

Peyton Manning is great, but remember: He’s 36, had multiple neck surgeries and faces one of the NFL’s toughest schedules. Normally, this screams under, but he churns out double-digit-win seasons. It comes down to his health. We’re staying away. —M.S.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORPeyton Manning’s 2010 stats: 66.3% comp., 4,700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 INTs



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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 121BILL BAPTIST/AP IMAGES120 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 WILLIAM PURNELL/ICON SMI

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Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders2011 record: –Fourth in AFC West

2011 record: –Third in AFC West

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Losing CB Brandon Carr left a huge hole in the secondary.Reality: Over the past two seasons, Carr allowed 6.9 ypa on 162 targets. To contrast, Stanford Routt—the ex-Raider who replaces Carr—allowed 6.7 ypa on 187 targets. The Chiefs may also lean heavily on nickelback Javier Arenas, whose 5.4 ypa is even better (on a smaller sample size of 76 targets).

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Palmer is not the long-term QB.Reality: His first season with the Raiders was better than the box scores show. Palmer tied for fifth in overall ypa (8.3), tied for ninth in vertical ypa (12.0) and was eighth in stretch-vertical ypa (14.5). Oakland shouldn’t worry too much about his age (33 by season’s end), because his skills aren’t diminishing. With improvement from young WRs, Palmer has a few good years left.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Devon WylieThe fourth-rounder from Fresno State is not a WR prototype at 5'9", 187 pounds, but no one doubts Wylie’s 4.39 speed. His ability to separate should get him time in the slot. The Chiefs don’t lack returners with Arenas and Dexter McCluster, but Wylie could moonlight there. Any game plan needs to get him the ball a few times.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Juron CrinerIn a slim draft for the Raiders (they didn’t pick until No. 95 overall), Criner could end up being a steal. The fifth-rounder was Nick Foles’ favorite target at Arizona in part because of his huge hands. He’ll make the tough catch over the middle, which will make him a nice complement to deep threats Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning RB Peyton HillisOne of the best running games was made better with the addition of Hillis. The fifth-year back will take some touches away from Jamaal Charles, who is coming o! an ACL injury. If Hillis and Charles can both regain their 2010 form, the Chiefs will have the makings of a terrific play-action team that will keep a very good defense well rested.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEHiring coach Dennis AllenThe Raiders haven’t had a winning season since 2002 because Al Davis’ “just win, baby” mentality created an undisciplined culture. Repairing this franchise is a tall order for Allen, who at 39 is the NFL’s youngest coach. He worked under the Saints’ Sean Payton and the Broncos’ John Fox, who resuscitated their teams. We’ll see what he learned.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersSince 2009, when Hali switched to OLB in the Chiefs’ new 3-4, his 35 sacks ranks third in the NFL, and his 12 forced fumbles is tied for fourth. This fast-flow unit uses a lot of pre-snap movement and creative blitz packages. ILB Derrick Johnson (131 tackles in 2011) doesn’t have a weakness in his game. If second-year OLB Justin Houston improves on his 5.5 sacks from 2011, this will challenge for best linebacker corps in the NFL.

WORST UNIT Defensive lineFirst it was Glenn Dorsey in 2008, then Tyson Jackson in ’09 and Dontari Poe in ’12. The Chiefs have spent three of their last six first-round picks on boom-or-bust D-linemen. DEs Dorsey and Jackson head one of the most underachieving units in the league (26 tackles for loss since ’10, 27th in the NFL). —G.H.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Special teamsSince 2010, Sebastian Janikowski has hit 84% of his field goals, and Shane Lechler was the only punter to rank in the top five in net yardage each of the past two seasons. But what makes this unit special is the speedy Ford, who has become one of the NFL’s top return men. With improved coverage, the Raiders could have one of the best special teams in the NFL.

WORST UNIT LinebackersSince 2003, the Raiders have never ranked higher than 22nd in run defense—and they were 29th or worse five times during that span. Even after drafting MLB Rolando McClain eighth overall in 2010, the run D remains an issue. But all the blame doesn’t fall on him. At OLB, Aaron Curry has two bad knees, Philip Wheeler is ine!ective and depth is a problem. —G.H.

Career-high 32 QB pressures last year

Has missed only one game in six NFL seasons

One of five players in NFL history with four kickoff TDs in first two years (missed eight games in ‘11 with ankle sprain)

TAMBA HALI, LB

JACOBY FORD, KR/WR

More than any other QB’s numbers, Cassel’s may come down to his protection. In 2011, he gained 4.8 yards per play with five blockers, 5.7 yards per play with six and 6.1 yards per play with seven or more.

It might shock you to know that Palmer had 7.6 net yards per pass last season, fifth among all QBs with at least 100 attempts. The reason it’s surprising is that Palmer also threw 16 INTs in just 10 games.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatt Cassel’s 2011 stats: 59.5% comp., 1,713 yards, 10 TDs, 9 INTs

As health improves, so could the Chiefs. Another new coach, same sunken ship.

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With Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki all lost for the season by the end of Week 2, it’s amazing KC won seven games. Statistically the team was on par with a 5–11 team. I like free agency pickups Peyton Hillis and Eric Winston. The Chiefs will make it to eight wins. —M.S.

I love the under. The schedule is tough, with four cross-country trips. And while the rest of the division improved, the Raiders lost key players like Michael Bush in free agency. Maybe a full year of Carson Palmer will help but not enough to get to eight W’s. —M.S.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORCarson Palmer’s 2011 stats: 60.7% comp., 2,753 yards, 13 TDs, 16 INTs

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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 123TOM DIPACE122 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 MARGARET BOWLES/AP IMAGES

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Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles2011 record: – Third in NFC East

2011 record: – Second in NFC East

PREDICTED SCORE

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: New DBs mean more INTs.Reality: Carr and Claiborne are both ball hawks, no question. Carr picked o! four passes for the Chiefs last season, and Claiborne had six INTs at LSU. But worse luck could o!set that talent. In 2011, the Cowboys picked o! 55.6% of interception opportunities, second highest in the NFL. A reversion to the league-median rate of roughly 40% could o!set whatever Carr and Claiborne add.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: DeSean Jackson is the best wide receiver on the Eagles’ roster.Reality: Every time he lines up wide, Jackson is a big play waiting to happen; he’s just not quite as good as the guy lining up opposite him. Last year, only three wideouts—Julio Jones, Victor Cruz and Mike Wallace—accomplished what Jeremy Maclin did: 8.0 ypa or higher on at least 40 short passes and 10.0 or higher vertical ypa.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Danny CoaleCoale is the opposite of some recent Dallas wide receivers: no sizzle, all production. The fifth-rounder out of Virginia Tech is no burner, but he finds gaps in coverage and plucks the ball away from his body. That skill set, along with a lack of receiver depth, will have Coale vying for time once his broken foot from this spring is fully healed.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERLB Mychal KendricksThe Eagles earned my top overall draft grade, and landing Kendricks at 46 was a key factor. Philly had major problems at linebacker last season, so the versatile Kendricks will start immediately on the strong side—and he’ll never need to come o! the field. He is strong against the run, hits hard, chases down plays and excels in coverage.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEAdding Brandon Carr and drafting Morris ClaiborneDefensive coordinator Rob Ryan doesn’t like to commit linebackers to help with coverage in his aggressive, blitz-heavy defense. So the corners must lock down their men in cover 0. Both Carr, a former Chief, and Claiborne, the overall No. 6 pick out of LSU, have that ability to excel in single coverage.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEAdding LB DeMeco Ryans and drafting CoxThe Eagles’ Wide 9 defense excelled on the perimeter in 2011, but teams gouged Philly up the middle. That scheme forces plays inside, pressuring DTs and forcing the MLB to cover more ground. Enter Cox up front: If the powerful rookie tackle can hold ground, Ryans, a two-time Pro Bowler with the Texans, will pile up the tackles.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsLosing WR Laurent Robinson and TE Martellus Bennett leaves a frightening lack of depth. But the trio of Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are scary good. Witten, once he recovers from a lacerated spleen, is a weapon at TE. Austin was down a bit in 2011, but that might have been related to a lack of post-lockout fitness. Bryant is one of the NFL’s five most talented receivers; now it’s time for him to reach his potential.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineTyron Smith will be an elite lineman soon, but he could struggle in Year 2 as he switches from right to left tackle, a position he played sparingly in college. I don’t see a single starting-caliber center or guard, so Tony Romo will face lots of interior pressure, and Dallas will struggle to run up the middle. —MATT WILLIAMSON

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive lineUpgrades will have the Eagles challenging the Giants for the most dominant defensive line in the NFL. Already boasting a dangerous unit, Philadelphia drafted DT Fletcher Cox and DE Vinny Curry. Cox will join Cullen Jenkins, Trent Cole and Babin to form an elite group of pass rushers. The Eagles’ depth is amazing too; I’m particularly high on DT Antonio Dixon as a run stu!er.

WORST UNIT Defensive backsIt’s tough to find a soft spot on a team with so much talent. Corners remain set with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha. But safety and slot corner are a worry. FS Nate Allen shows promise when healthy, but second-year SS Jaiquawn Jarrett needs to improve in coverage. —M.W.

His 7.7 ypa on short passes ranked 11th among NFL WRs

Gained 20-plus yards on 27% of receptions

18 sacks ranked 3rd in NFL

107 yards lost on sacks ranked 4th

DEZ BRYANT, WR

JASON BABIN, DE

For all the grief he takes, the surprisingly consistent Romo has averaged 7.5 to 8.2 ypa in each of the past five seasons—and our projection calls for about 7.75 ypa. That’s Pro Bowl caliber.

Vick has averaged more than 250 passing ypg as an Eagles starter, so it isn’t crazy to believe he can throw for 4,000 yards if he stays healthy. Of course, he’s played all 16 games only once in his nine seasons.

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FBO POCKET PROJECTORTony Romo’s 2011 stats: 66.3% comp., 4,184 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs

Romo VickAverage starting QB Average starting QB

Two new corners will help lock down a playo! spot. This time, the results will match expectations.

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Given the team’s huge fan base, a Dallas over/under line is always a bit inflated. The Cowboys improved their two biggest weaknesses—o!ensive line and secondary. Still, they look like a .500 team based on the division and their schedule. —PredictionMachine.com

Last year’s team was full of new players who didn’t mesh quickly. Combine that with a minus-14 turnover margin and you arrive at 8–8. Still, this year’s number is right on point. If healthy (injuries are always a factor with Michael Vick), this is the NFL’s best roster. —P.M.






– –2012 projected record

–

FBO POCKET PROJECTORMichael Vick’s 2011 stats: 59.8% comp., 3,303 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs



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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 125DAVID DRAPKIN/AP IMAGES124 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 EVAN PINKUS/AP IMAGES

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New York Giants Washington Redskins2011 record: – Super Bowl champions

2011 record: –Fourth in NFC East

PREDICTED SCORE

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KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: The Giants o!ensive line will prevent a Super Bowl run.Reality: The stats suggest the line will hold its own. The G-Men gave up only 28 sacks (seventh best) despite throwing more vertical aerials (235) than any other team in the NFL. In other words, they gave Manning time to pick apart secondaries. And the team’s good-blocking ypa also shot up late in the season, from 6.2 in Weeks 1-13 to 7.5 after.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: Run blocking will hinder this o!ense.Reality: Yes, the Redskins were 25th in rushing yards last season, but don’t blame the big boys up front. The line’s 45.7% good-blocking rate was tied for 11th overall. The real issue was Roy Helu’s pedestrian 7.0 good-blocking ypa. Enter a healthy Tim Hightower, who is coming o! an ACL tear in 2011. In 2010, when he was in Arizona, his 9.4 GBYPA was best in the NFL.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Rueben RandleRandle needs some polish, but the second-round pick has good size at 6'2" and the ability to stretch defenses. That may get him an early look as the Giants search for a third receiver to replace Mario Manningham. Randle didn’t post big numbers at LSU, but his QBs didn’t provide him with opportu-nities. That won’t be a problem with Manning.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERQB Kirk CousinsThe Redskins’ draft lacked impact players beyond RG3, but I’m interested to see what they do with Cousins, their controversial fourth-round pick. Grabbing the Michigan State QB wasn’t strange to me, because the Redskins can showcase him in the preseason, then try to deal him to recoup some of the picks they lost in trading for Gri"n.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE Signing Martellus BennettThe Giants haven’t had a mainstay at TE since the days of Jeremy Shockey. Bringing in Bennett, who has a lot of Shockey-like qualities, might change that. Immaturity is a concern with the ex-Cowboy, but Mike Pope is among the league’s best TE coaches, and he maximizes talent. Bennett is no Shockey, but if he listens, he could shine.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE Drafting Robert Gri"n IIIRG3 could be the best—and most permanent—Redskins QB since Sonny Jurgensen. His speed is obvious, but he also has great vision and can complete passes on the run, dimensions lacking in other fleet QBs like Michael Vick. More reasons for optimism: The system is built for his style, and Pierre Garcon gives him a downfield target.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive lineWe all know the DEs: Pierre-Paul could soon be the NFL’s best defender, and the résumés of Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora speak for themselves. But the Giants DTs (Marvin Austin, Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty and Linval Joseph) don’t get enough credit. Now with Shaun Rogers lost for the season, Austin and Joseph will be asked to dig deeper after just scratching the surface of their vast potential.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineRun blocking is the biggest issue; the Giants gained 89.2 yards on the ground in 2011, last in the NFL. RG Chris Snee is the only above-average OL, but he will get help as LT Will Beatty returns after missing six games with an eye injury. RT David Diehl has played every spot but center. —M.W.

INSIDER’S TAKEBEST UNIT LinebackersLed by Fletcher, the LBs are playmakers in this 3-4 scheme. Amazingly, Fletcher isn’t slowing down at 37, and his leadership is crucial in the development of his young mates. ILB Perry Riley is a breakout candidate, and OLBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan provide the necessary edge rush.

WORST UNIT Defensive backsThere’s trouble behind the front seven. Josh Wilson is the top DB, even if wildly inconsistent DeAngelo Hall gets more fanfare. Safety is the pressing issue. Tanard Jackson has shown talent in coverage but has been erratic o! the field, having served two NFL suspensions (substance abuse). Brandon Meriweather is on his third team in three years; Madieu Williams, Reed Doughty and DeJon Gomes are in the mix by default. —M.W.

224 straight games, tied for most ever (excluding specialists)

100-plus tackles in 13 straight seasons

JASON PIERRE-PAUL, DE

LONDON FLETCHER, LB

Having potent RBs David Wilson and Ahmad Bradshaw means Manning won’t have to throw as often. The INT forecast is in line with his career numbers. Ignore the 25 he threw in 2010—a clear fluke.

Rookie QBs who run a lot in college tend to have a lower NFL ypa compared with rookies from pass-heavy systems. But we expect RG3’s talent for the deep ball (14.8 ypa as a Baylor senior) to buck that trend.

FBO POCKET PROJECTOREli Manning’s 2011 stats: 61% comp., 4,933 yards, 29 TDs, 16 INTs

The champs aren’t championship material. RG3’s time will come. But first, a lesson in losing.

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Which Giants will show up? The team that lost twice to Washington or the one that won six straight down the stretch? The Giants return 21 starters, but you can’t ignore last year’s negative scoring margin and the NFL’s toughest schedule. Another 9–7 record is likely. —P.M.

There’s value in betting the over. If the Redskins had started Rex Grossman all of last season, our projections put them at 7–9. And RG3 is an immediate upgrade over Grossman. The minus-14 turnover margin should improve, leading to at least seven wins. —P.M.







FBO POCKET PROJECTORRobert Gri"n III’s 2011 stats (at Baylor): 72.4% comp., 4,293 yards, 37 TDs, 6 INTs

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Led Giants with 23 TFLs and 29 QB hits

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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 127GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES126 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 JIM PRISCHING/AP IMAGES

NFC North NFC North

Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears2011 record: –Lost in divisional round

2011 record: –Third in NFC North

PREDICTED SCORE

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Jordy Nelson will fade.Reality: Nelson’s best metric was his 14.0 ypa facing a CB or safety (second in the NFL). He was one of four wideouts to post 1,000-plus yards on vertical passes, which he did on just 51 vertical targets. The other three needed at least 76.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Chicago has a shutdown run D.Reality: The Bears had the fifth-best rushing defense in the NFL last year at 96.4 yards per game. But don’t confuse this D with the Monsters of the Midway. Chicago allowed 7.8 good-blocking ypa last year, 23rd in the NFL. Once an opposing team creases the Bears’ defensive front, their aging LBs—Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have played 21 combined seasons—struggle to fill the holes.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERCB Casey HaywardA key storyline during training camp has been Charles Woodson’s time at safety. While Woodson remains one of the NFL’s premier slot corners, Hayward’s ability to cover in tra!c and support the run defense will eventually prompt a permanent move to safety for the 15-year veteran.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Alshon Je"eryJe"ery’s yo-yoing size (6'3", 216) and suspect speed (4.5) dropped him to the second round, but tape shows he was a perpetual mismatch at South Carolina, making grabs even when blanketed by top corners. A welcome sight for Cutler, who’s tired of receivers who can’t make a play on the ball.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEDrafting LB Nick Perry and DE Jerel WorthyRookies don’t typically play a major role in defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ schemes, but these two pass rushers should be exceptions. The Packers never really replaced Cullen Jenkins after he joined the Eagles last season, and Worthy, a second-round pick out of Michigan State, is capable of filling that role. Perry—a hybrid OLB/DE out of USC who will play opposite OLB Clay Matthews—will get plenty of sack opportunities.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVETrading for WR Brandon MarshallThe Cutler-Marshall tandem clicked in Denver, and you have to think the two will rediscover that connection in Chicago. In his three years with the Bears, Cutler hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiver. But while Marshall has the talent to be the go-to option, he can’t be a distraction—no more suspensions, no more arrests.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsGreg Jennings is the No. 5 WR in our Big Book, and Nelson would excel in any system with his large catch radius and deep speed. TE Jermichael Finley was plagued by drops last season, but his unspoken value is in the room he creates for the other receivers. Slot receiver Randall Cobb has big-play ability and elevates an already deep group. And we haven’t even mentioned Donald Driver and James Jones. Frightening.

WORST UNIT Running backsUnderstandably, Packers opponents shade toward stopping the pass. Even so, the Pack struggle with a pedestrian run game. James Starks has no special qualities but is still a step ahead of 2011 third-rounder Alex Green, who was derailed last October by an ACL tear. Look for Cedric Benson to spur competition. —M.W.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Running backsThe Bears prepared for life without Forte by signing Michael Bush. Now, with Forte locked in, they have one of the NFL’s top duos. The two complement each other’s game: Bush excels in short yardage, one of Forte’s few weaknesses, while the presence of the former Raider should keep the versatile Forte fresh. Also, keep an eye on Kahlil Bell, who showed good power while averaging 4.3 ypc last season.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineNew o"ensive coordinator Mike Tice won’t expose blockers like predecessor Mike Martz did in using seven-step drops with no help. But the Bears still don’t have enough quality linemen. RT Gabe Carimi (dislocated kneecap as a rookie in 2011) won’t fix a unit that has struggled for years. —M.W.

JORDYNELSON, WR

MATT FORTE, RB

Rodgers is the first QB to have two seasons with 200-plus attempts and an INT rate below 1.3%. His attempts are kept down by GB’s pace; only San Diego and Pittsburgh had fewer drives than the Pack’s 168.

Cutler threw only 432 passes in 2010 and was on pace for 502 in 2011 before his injury. Chicago just isn’t going to throw a lot, even with Marshall, whose Dolphins didn’t pass much in his first year in Miami.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORAaron Rodgers’ 2011 stats: 68.3% comp., 4,643 yards, 45 TDs, 6 INTs

The high-powered Pack will stay on the attack. A Cutler-Marshall reunion gives Chicago hope.

WinLoss

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins


LVH over/under wins

Despite a 15–1 record, Pythagorean win analysis says the Packers should have gone 12–4. It’s unlikely they’ll replicate a plus-24 turnover margin, and successful teams (13-plus wins and a top-four in scoring margin) tend to fall o" the next year. —WunderdogSports.com

The Bears inspired optimism by going 7–3 before injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and now they’ve added Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush. But we don’t buy the good vibes. The o"ense is better, but the D was in the bottom half of the NFL in 2011. —W.S.






–2012 projected record

–

FBO POCKET PROJECTORJay Cutler’s 2011 stats: 58% comp., 2,319 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs

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When covered by DB, caught ball or drew penalty 70% of time

10.7 GBYPA ranked second in the league

Bears had worst good-blocking rate (37.9%)

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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 129BOB DONNAN/US PRESSWIRE128 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES

NFC North NFC North

Detroit Lions Minnesota Vikings2011 record: –Lost in wild-card game

2011 record: – Fourth in NFC North

PREDICTED SCORE

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: The Lions can’t cover anyone.Reality: I respectfully disagree with my colleague Matt Williamson. Last year, Detroit tied for eighth in vertical ypa allowed (10.2) and was sixth in stretch-vertical ypa allowed (11.0)—despite the injuries that caused leading CB Chris Houston to post a subpar 8.1 ypa. That says a lot about the job coordinator Gunther Cunningham is doing.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: A healthy Adrian Peterson is the NFL’s top RB.Reality: Peterson hasn’t finished higher than fifth in rushing since 2008. He failed to exploit good blocking in that stretch, ranking 27th, 22nd and 21st in GBYPA because he doesn’t read defensive fronts well. Sorry, Insider, AD is not the best.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Ryan BroylesBroyles was a first-rounder before a torn ACL last November hurt the Oklahoma senior’s stock. So it raised eyebrows when the Lions—already flush with pass catchers—grabbed him in the second. Broyles was o! the PUP list after camp opened, a sign that they think he’ll contribute right away.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERS Harrison SmithThe first-round pick from Notre Dame is an underrated athlete whose versatility in coverage makes him a no-brainer to start in Week 1. Throw in his ability to help out in run support and he’s an immediate upgrade to the Vikings secondary.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEReleasing CB Aaron BerryIt’s not easy to change a negative culture once it takes root. The young Lions were headed down that path, with players making news for the wrong reasons. The Lions front o"ce sent a message by terminating Berry’s contract after his second arrest of the summer (simple assault charges for allegedly brandishing a gun in a tra"c incident, after a suspicion of DUI arrest).

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning TE John CarlsonThe biggest key to Ponder’s development is obviously Peterson’s health. But signing Carlson should help too. Carlson has missed the preseason recovering from a sprained MCL, but when healthy he’ll team up with fellow tight end Kyle Rudolph to provide a pair of reliable targets on a team that lacks elite pass catchers. No one will ever confuse them with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but they’re solid.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsIf this group featured Calvin Johnson and a bunch of guys who had never played football, it still might be a strength. But there is plenty of other talent on hand. Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Sche#er cause matchup problems in double-TE sets. Adding WR Ryan Broyles to Titus Young and Nate Burleson gives Matthew Sta!ord an impressive group of targets.

WORST UNIT Defensive backsThe farther from the line you move, the weaker this defense gets. Safety Louis Delmas is at his best in the box. The pass D will be even worse after losing CB Eric Wright to Tampa Bay. Detroit will force corners Chris Houston and Bill Bentley to play extremely conservatively to eliminate big plays. —M.W.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Running backsPeterson returns from ACL surgery, but even if he isn’t quite himself to start the season, he’s still an all-time great and in his prime. No one in the league is better. The Vikings also have strong depth behind him. Toby Gerhart has better feet and elusiveness than he is given credit for.

WORST UNIT Defensive backsThis might actually be the worst group at any position in the NFL. And that’s a huge problem, since Minnesota plays six games a year against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Sta!ord and Jay Cutler. Antoine Winfield is still a quality corner, but he’s 35. Chris Cook could become a good CB in Minnesota’s cover 2, but there’s a reason the Vikes took three DBs in the draft— including two safeties—who could start as rookies. —M.W.

11.1 ypa was tops among WRs with 8-plus targets a game

Led league in vertical receiving yards (1,282)

Had good blocking on 54.3% of rushes (2nd highest in NFL)

4.7 ypc (T-6th among RBs with 200 attempts)

CALVIN JOHNSON, WR

ADRIAN PETERSON, RB

Can you say regression? Not only did Sta!ord play all 16 games for the first time, his ypa jumped from 5.9 in 2009-10 to 7.6 in 2011. Historically, few QBs have sustained similar extreme gains.

Most QBs see their biggest improvement between their first and second seasons. Ponder was 0.8 of a yard per attempt below the NFL average last year and should make up about half that di!erence in 2012.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatthew Sta!ord’s 2011 stats: 63.5% comp., 5,038 yards, 41 TDs, 16 INTs

FBO POCKET PROJECTOR Christian Ponder’s 2011 stats: 54.3% comp., 1,853 yards, 13 TDs, 13 INTs

A potent o!ense props up a rickety defense. Too many holes to Ponder the playo!s.

WinLoss

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins


LVH over/under wins

The Lions won 10 and have a young star at QB and the game’s best WR. Yet the over/under is only nine. Why? Their luck will run out after an NFL-record four comeback wins of 13-plus points and an unusually healthy season (fourth-fewest games lost to injury). —W.S.

The Vikes weren’t as bad as their three wins suggest; Pythagorean analysis shows they should have won five. They were 2–9 in games decided by seven points or fewer, mostly due to a rookie QB and pure bad luck. If Adrian Peterson contributes, they’ll go over six wins. —W.S.








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09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine 131TYLER KAUFMAN/CAL SPORT MEDIA130 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ/AP IMAGES

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NFC South NFC South

New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers2011 record: – Lost in divisional round

2011 record: – Third in NFC South

PREDICTED SCORE

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Marques Colston isn’t a deep threat.Reality: Brees proves it doesn’t take a cannon to complete long passes; Colston proves it doesn’t take top-end speed to catch them. Despite a 40 time north of 4.5, his 14.1 vertical ypa ranked 13th in the NFL last season.

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: The Panthers need an upgrade opposite WR Steve Smith.Reality: Don’t let Brandon LaFell’s unremarkable 613 receiving yards from 2011 fool you. With his home-run-hitting ability, he has the makings of a very good complementary wide receiver. His 14.7 vertical ypa was tied for sixth among WRs with at least 30 vertical targets, and it led to an 11.4 overall ypa, also tied for sixth in the NFL.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Nick ToonSeven di!erent Saints caught 30-plus passes in 2011; only one was a first-round pick (Meachem). Fourth-rounder Toon has been slowed by a foot injury, but he wasn’t a burner at Wisconsin. The son of former Jets WR Al Toon runs great routes, finds holes in zones and catches everything.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERWR Joe AdamsThe Panthers had to address their defense early in the draft after fielding one of the league’s worst last season. But they also needed receiver depth. Adams, a fourth-rounder out of Arkansas, should help. He’s a true slot receiver with the ability to make big plays.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEHiring defensive coordinator Steve SpagnuoloWith head coach Sean Payton serving a season-long suspension and assistant Joe Vitt missing the first six games, the Saints will benefit from the leadership of Spagnuolo. The former Rams head coach brings professionalism and stability when it’s most needed. The fact that he’ll improve a defense that dropped from fourth to 24th in the NFL in yards allowed is almost a bonus. In his last stint as a DC, the Giants jumped from 25th to seventh in total defense in his first year.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning TolbertStewart and Williams needed some help after years of wear and tear, and they’ll get it from Tolbert. His addition, along with the presence of Newton, gives the Panthers the most versatile ground game in the league. Spread option, triple option, Wildcat, I-formation, split backs—you name it, they can run it. And good luck stopping it.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Running backsWe would have listed “o!ensive skill positions” if given the option, especially because Jimmy Graham is just starting to realize his potential. But the backs edge the receivers for top marks because the Saints lost Robert Meachem, and a healthy Mark Ingram can still be an elite feature back. Sproles is the premier dual threat in the NFL, and Pierre Thomas o!ers a blend of Ingram’s power and Sproles’ versatility. When bruiser Chris Ivory is your fourth back, that means you’re loaded.

WORST UNIT Defensive lineThere’s no glaringly weak group here, but the D-line does have questions. DE Will Smith is suspended for the first four games, and DT Sedrick Ellis has been an underwhelming pro. —M.W.

INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Running backsThe Panthers have the best stable of backs in the NFL. Jonathan Stewart is the total package. I would love to see what he could do as a full-time back in this o!ense; I think he’d rank among the three or four best RBs in football. Williams mixes excellent vision with the ability to make tacklers miss. Add in Mike Tolbert as a hammer/receiver and the Panthers have unmatched depth with star power to boot.

WORST UNIT Defensive lineThe Panthers don’t ask a lot of their DTs—just eat space so their great LBs can run and hit. Ron Edwards fits the mold, but Terrell McClain and Sione Fua did little to impress as rookies. At least Carolina boasts solid DEs: Charles Johnson had a team-high nine sacks, and Greg Hardy has all the tools. —M.W.

111 targets were most among RBs

7.6 yards per touch led RBs with 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage

DARREN SPROLES, RB

DEANGELO WILLIAMS, RB

No QB has ever topped 4,800 passing yards in two straight seasons. But Brees can do it with Sproles, a dominant TE in Graham and a fleet of wide receivers who make double-teaming dicey.

Carolina will win more, which means better rate stats but smaller numbers for Newton. The tough part is predicting rush TDs for a guy who set the all-time QB record with 14 as a rookie. We’ll go with 10.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORDrew Brees’ 2011 stats: 71.2% comp., 5,476 yards, 46 TDs, 14 INTs

No D or distraction can slow this o!ense. On the move, one rush at a time.

WinLoss

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins


LVH over/under wins

In 2011, the Saints were one of the league’s healthiest teams, had the top net-point di!erential and won 13 games. You have to wonder if their season was too good to repeat. The loss of Sean Payton makes them even tougher to figure. —WunderdogSports.com

Carolina’s o!ensive and defensive production was more indicative of a seven- or eight-win team. The Panthers su!ered a ton of injuries and were 2–6 in games decided by one score. Their nondivisional foes are some of the worst in the league. We like the over. —W.S.





2012 projected record–


FBO POCKET PROJECTORCam Newton’s 2011 stats: 60% comp., 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs

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132 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 TOM DIPACE

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NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 2011 record: – Lost in wild-card game

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Atlanta can’t stop the run.Reality: Yes, the Falcons’ 7.9 good-blocking ypa allowed was 24th in the NFL, but the team also had a 37.4 good-blocking rate allowed, second in the league. If the linebackers, led by OLB Sean Weatherspoon, can keep teams from ripping o! long gains, the Falcons will have a top-10 rush D.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERDE Jonathan MassaquoiThe Falcons’ draft didn’t begin until pick No. 55 when they grabbed Konz. But keep an eye out for Massaquoi, a fifth-rounder from Troy. If he shows the kind of explosiveness he displayed as a sophomore two years ago (13.5 sacks), he could emerge late in the fall.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEHiring defensive coordinator Mike NolanNolan is a very good coordinator—the Dolphins improved from 22nd to sixth in total defense after hiring him in 2010. But his impact in Atlanta may not be as immediate. Nolan lacks the personnel to play his preferred 3-4 scheme, so the Falcons will stick with their traditional 4-3 for now. Credit Nolan for not forcing the transition. We tried that shift in Indy last season, and without the proper players to execute the 3-4, we really struggled.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight endsWhite is still one of the NFL’s best receivers, Julio Jones is knocking on stardom’s door and the ageless Tony Gonzalez is coming o! his top season in Atlanta. Drops were an issue for White and Jones, but Gonzalez catches everything. Jones accounted for 16.8% of Atlanta’s o!ense as a rookie; that should only grow thanks to his size (6'3", 220), power, pure speed and run-after-the-catch skills. The only issue is depth.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineTwo issues here: One, the line lacks a blocker who can dominate. And two, LT Sam Baker is a massive liability in protection; QB Matt Ryan was hit 84 times in 2011, seventh most in the league. At least guard Peter Konz fell in the Falcons’ lap in the second round of April’s draft. —M.W.

171 targets led the leagueRanked third in the NFL with 83 vertical targets

RODDY WHITE, WR

Ryan should feast on the league’s easiest projected schedule of opposing pass defenses. Add a more experienced Jones and you have a simple recipe for statistical improvement.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatt Ryan’s 2011 stats: 61.3% comp., 4,177 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs

Matt Ryan steps up, but the team steps back.

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins

This team will not win 10 games again, even if the schedule is easier than last season’s. The Falcons were unusually healthy in 2011 and had a plus-8 turnover margin. As their luck evens out in a solid division, they will take a step back. —W.S.

VEGAS VIBE

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-

9/23

@ DAL

-

9/30

vs. WAS-

10/14 vs. KC

-10/21vs. NO

-10/25

@ M

IN

-11/4@

OAK

-

11/25

vs. ATL

-11

/18

@ CA

R

-11

/11

vs. S

D

-

12/2@ DEN

-12/9

vs. PHI-

12/16@ NO

-12/23

vs. STL

-

12/30@

ATL

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2011 record: – Fourth in NFC South

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Doug Martin is a ROY favoriteReality: Tampa traded up to take the much-hyped Martin with the 31st pick overall, but his college stats don’t justify his buzz. He never rushed for more than 1,300 yards at Boise State. And his 4.9 ypc in 2011 was tied for 25th among the 47 FBS RBs with 200-plus attempts, which is unimpressive considering the Broncos’ weak schedule.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERLB Lavonte DavidThe Bucs cleaned up in Round 1, adding Martin and S Mark Barron, but neither is my favorite pick. At No. 58, they stole David out of Nebraska. His great crime was simply being 225 pounds. Well, he’s now 233 with the speed to remind fans of Derrick Brooks, who was once too small as well.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEHiring coach Greg SchianoThe former Rutgers boss brings professionalism to a team badly in need of it. There are building blocks on defense; sixth-year DT Amobi Okoye should flourish in coordinator Bill Sheridan’s 4-3 system. The addition of WR Vincent Jackson from San Diego will instantly upgrade the o!ense, but the real key will be whether Schiano can get QB Freeman to fulfill his potential.

INSIDER’S TAKEBEST UNIT O!ensive lineOnly the Eagles threw more often on first and 10 than the Bucs. That will change this season largely because of the O-line. Greg Schiano believes in a physical, run-first approach, and the Bucs didn’t invest huge money in Nicks and draft RB Doug Martin to air it out. Adding Nicks from the Saints, maybe the NFL’s best guard, allows Jeremy Zuttah to slide to center, a better spot for him. Right tackle remains the line’s only weakness.

WORST UNIT LinebackersThe Bucs’ linebackers could be a disaster again. Mason Foster and Quincy Black are carryovers from a unit that had the NFL’s worst run D in 2011. Foster struggled to fill Barrett Ruud’s MLB role, and if he doesn’t contribute more in run support in his second season, TB will have another long year on D. —M.W.

Did not miss a snap last year (1,177 plays)

Has started 61 straight games

CARL NICKS, G

In 2011, Freeman managed the rare feat of raising his INT rate by at least 2% while also raising his completion percentage. The 13 QBs who’ve done this since 1978 have averaged 7.3 fewer INTs the next season.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORJosh Freeman’s 2011 stats: 62.8% comp., 3,592 yards, 16 TDs, 22 INTs

New coach, new line … familiar results.

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins

The Bucs could’ve been worse than 4–12 in 2011. They were last in points allowed (30.9) and 27th in points scored (17.9). But they’ll benefit from a new coach (typically worth two or three wins) and a tame schedule. That should lead to at least six W’s. —W.S.

VEGAS VIBE




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100%

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5,000

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30

3,000

15

Freeman Average starting QB


Touchdowns

Yards

Interceptions

2012 PROJECTION

Bye

BYE

59.6%

20

15

3,777

61.7%

24.4

14.9

3,844.4

P R E V I E W

Wee

k 1

W

eek 2

W

eek 3

W

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Week 5 Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

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k 11

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eek 12

Week 13 Week 14

Week 15 Week 16

Week 17

0

0

0


-9/

9@

GB

-9/

16vs

. DET

-

9/23

@ MIN

-

9/30

@ NYJ

-10/7

vs. BUF -10/14vs. NYG

-10/18

vs. SEA

-10/29

@ ARI

-

11/25

@ NO

-11

/19

vs. C

HI

-11

/11

vs. S

TL

-

12/2@ STL

-12/9

vs. MIA-

12/16@ NE

-12/23

@ SEA

-

12/30@

ARI

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 2011 record: – Lost in NFC championship

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Alex Smith is merely a game manager.Reality: Smith ranked in the top 11 in both short- and stretch-vertical passes last year—without ideal WRs. Now Mario Manningham, a revitalized Randy Moss and rookie A.J. Jenkins are in SF, meaning Smith could soon be a top-10 QB.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERRB LaMichael JamesThe Niners have a strong trio of runners in Gore, Jacobs and Hunter, but none has James’ home run element. The second-rounder out of Oregon o!ers legit sprinter’s speed. He has the versatility to catch passes on the edge, run inside and make big plays in the return game.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning RB Brandon JacobsJacobs hasn’t been an every-down back for quite some time—he started just 11 games for the Giants in the past two seasons. But he’s the perfect fit in SF; the Niners now have a suitable partner for Frank Gore. Kendall Hunter wasn’t a consistent answer, and without a complement to Gore, the o!ense becomes extremely limited. Coach Jim Harbaugh wants to continue last year’s run-heavy attack; Jacobs makes that approach more viable.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT LinebackersThe 49ers have the NFL’s best LB crew—and it isn’t even close. Patrick Willis is making a case to be considered one of the greats at ILB. NaVorro Bowman diagnoses plays quickly and gets to his target with aggressiveness. Phenom Aldon Smith, who’s already SF’s top pass rusher (14 sacks in 2011), should take Parys Haralson’s starting spot at OLB.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineThis is a tale of two sides. LT Joe Staley is light on his feet, LG Mike Iupati is a mauler and Jonathan Goodwin is an above-average center, especially in run blocking. But the right side is a big concern. RT Anthony Davis, a former first-rounder, hasn’t produced in two seasons. And RG is such a mess that the 49ers opened camp with four in the mix. —M.W.

Don’t expect Smith’s stellar 1.1% INT rate to regress much. He had only three potential INTs dropped by defenders over the past two seasons and had the lowest rate of passes defensed (5.2%) in 2011.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORAlex Smith’s 2011 stats: 61.3% comp., 3,144 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs

With a D this good, the QB is good enough.

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins

The 49ers, a Super Bowl favorite? There’s been enough action on SF at some books to make that the case, which is crazy. It’s more likely that Alex Smith won’t have another career year, and the D won’t force an NFL-best 38 turnovers again. —PredictionMachine.com

VEGAS VIBE




Bye

0%

0

0

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50%

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25%

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1,000

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75%

30

3,000

15


Touchdowns

Yards

Interceptions

2012 PROJECTION

BYE

Smith Average starting QB

12 passes defensed, second among LBs

Played 92.4% of defensive plays

PATRICK WILLIS, LB

60.7%

23

11

3,422

61.7%

24.4

14.9

3,844.4

P R E V I E W

Wee

k 1

W

eek 2

W

eek 3

W

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Week 5 Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

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k 11

W

eek 12

Week 13 Week 14

Week 15 Week 16

Week 17

138 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 DAVID STLUKA/AP IMAGES

-9/

9@

ARI

-9/

16vs

. DAL

-

9/24

vs. GB

-

9/30

@ STL

-10/7

@ CAR

-10/18@ SF-

10/14vs. NE

-10/28

@ DET

-11/4vs. M

IN

-

11/25

@ MIA

-11

/11

vs. N

YJ

-

12/2@ CHI

-12/9

vs. ARI-

12/16@ BUF

-12/23

vs. SF

-

12/30vs. STL

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 2011 record: – Third in NFC West

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: Brandon Browner is their top CB.Reality: Browner may have parlayed six picks into a Pro Bowl berth, but his 9.4 ypa allowed was tied for 65th in the NFL. Meanwhile, opposite him, Richard Sherman gave up just 5.2 ypa (tied for sixth) and added four interceptions. He was the better player last season—by far.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERRB Robert TurbinI was tempted to pick Wilson, who has a great chance to succeed, but I foresee bigger initial impact from Turbin. If Marshawn Lynch is suspended for his o!season transgressions, the powerful rookie, who ran for more than 1,500 yards last year at Utah State, should fill the RB void.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning QB FlynnFlynn should bring stability and great game- management skills to a position that was a problem area for Seattle last season. I expect Flynn to win the job over rookie Russell Wilson and former starter Tarvaris Jackson. And while it’d be crazy to expect him to repeat his output from last season when he filled in for Aaron Rodgers in Week 17 (480 yards, 6 TDs), don’t underestimate the improvement Flynn will provide under center.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive lineSeattle added to a strength this o!season by nabbing former Titans DE/DT Jason Jones in free agency and drafting Bruce Irvin out of West Virginia. Jones is a great interior pass rusher, and Irvin’s quick-twitch athleticism could cause huge problems for OTs. It’s a deep group too: DT Brandon Mebane, DE Red Bryant, DT Alan Branch and DE Clemons are all underrated.

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineHealth is a key concern, compounded by depth issues. Seattle gave up 50 sacks in 2011 (29th in the NFL) with a patchwork line. James Carpenter is still recovering from an ACL injury, and Russell Okung—who could be an elite LT—can’t stay healthy. And while center Max Unger is solid, the rest of the group are grinders with average-at-best ability. —M.W.

Tied for 11th with 11 sacks last season

8.2 yards per sack was second among those with 10-plus sacks

CHRIS CLEMONS, DE

Flynn averaged 365 passing yards per start in Green Bay. Seattle’s QBs averaged 194 passing yards per game last season. When it comes to this forecast, the Seahawks’ past outweighs Flynn’s past.

An anonymous D will demand recognition.

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins

QB Matt Flynn should be the starter, but a lack of clarity at that spot holds everything else up. The defensive talent is on par with the NFL’s elite; Seattle gave up just 19.7 ppg in 2011, and its per-play stats suggest that number could have been even better. —P.M.

VEGAS VIBE




FBO POCKET PROJECTORMatt Flynn’s 2011 stats: 67.3% comp., 518 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs

Bye

0%

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0

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50%

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Touchdowns

Yards

Interceptions

2012 PROJECTIONFlynn Average starting QB

BYE

60.3%

19

17

3,329

61.7%

24.4

14.9

3,844.4

(in Toronto)

P R E V I E W

Wee

k 1

W

eek 2

W

eek 3

W

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Week 5 Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Wee

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Wee

k 11

W

eek 12

Week 13 Week 14

Week 15 Week 16

Week 17

140 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012 TOM DIPACE; PAGE 142: BILL KOSTROUN/AP IMAGES

-9/

9vs

. SEA

-9/

16@

NE

-

9/23

vs. PHI

-

9/30

vs. MIA

-10/4

@ STL -10/14vs. BUF

-10/21@ MIN

-10/29

vs. SF

-11/4@

GB

-

11/25

vs. STL

-11

/18

@ AT

L-

12/2@ NYJ

-12/9

@ SEA-

12/16vs. DET

-12/23

vs. CHI

-

12/30@

SF

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 2011 record: –2nd in NFC West

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCEPerception: The D can’t get its hands on the ball.Reality: Only five teams had fewer INTs, but bad hands were the real problem. Arizona made just five “tip drill” picks—plays in which the ball is up for grabs o! a tip or drop—second lowest in the NFL. Adrian Wilson (4 dropped INTs) and Kerry Rhodes (3) were the biggest culprits.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERRT Bobby MassieArizona has shunned drafting linemen for years, and it shows. But in Massie, the Cardinals got first-round talent with the 112th pick. While he could have used another year of experience, few 6'6", 316-pound humans move as well as he can. The RT also started 29 straight games at Ole Miss.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVEPromoting assistants Mike Miller and John McNultyWhoever wins the competition between Kolb and Skelton simply must do better. Part of the onus for that falls on new o!ensive coordinator Miller and QB coach McNulty. Miller moves up from his old role of passing-game coordinator, while McNulty previously handled the receivers. Bottom line: If they don’t solve the QB issue, everything else becomes irrelevant.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Wide receiversKevin Kolb and John Skelton may not be reliable QBs, but they have a bevy of top targets. Fitzgerald is a future Hall of Famer, and rookie Michael Floyd has excellent size (6'3", 225) and body control to go with solid speed. Behind them, the quick Andre Roberts excels as a route runner, while Early Doucet has more possession skills. And watch out for TE Rob Housler’s rare combo of height (6'5") and speed (4.55).

WORST UNIT O!ensive lineThere’s a reason Arizona drafted three linemen, albeit in the fourth round or later. The pass protection was porous in 2011 (54 sacks allowed, second worst), and while Kolb held the ball too long, personnel was a big issue. LT Levi Brown is a lousy pass blocker; he gave up 11.5 sacks alone last season. —M.W.

Ranked fourth in NFL with 152 targets

His 1,447 receiving and penalty yards was fourth among WRs

LARRY FITZGERALD, WR

Yeah, 4,000 yards from Kolb sounds insane. But if he can win the starting job—and stay healthy—it really isn’t. We’re actually projecting fewer yards per attempt (7.61) than he had last year (7.73).

FBO POCKET PROJECTORKevin Kolb’s 2011 stats:57.7% comp., 1,955 yards, 9 TDs, 8 INTs

Kolb isn’t as bad as he looks, but the team is.

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins

Going 8–8 last season wasn’t that bad, considering the mess the Cardinals had at quarterback. We liked their draft with WR Michael Floyd and RT Bobby Massie, though, and even with just slight improvement at QB the Cards should reach seven wins. —P.M.

VEGAS VIBE




Bye

0%

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0

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50%

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15


Touchdowns

Yards

Interceptions

2012 PROJECTIONKolb Average starting QB

BYE

61.9%

23

21

4,047

61.7%

24.4

14.9

3,844.4

P R E V I E W

Wee

k 1

W

eek 2

W

eek 3

W

eek 4

Week 5 Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

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Wee

k 11

W

eek 12

Week 13 Week 14

Week 15 Week 16

Week 17

142 ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012

-9/

9@

DET

-9/

16vs

. WAS

-

9/23

@ CHI

-

9/30

vs. SEA

-10/4

vs. ARI -10/14 @ MIA

-10/21vs. GB

-

11/25

@ ARI

-11

/18

vs. N

YJ

-11

/11

@ S

F

-

12/2vs. SF

-12/9

@ BUF-

12/16vs. MIN

-12/23

@ TB

-

12/30@

SEA

NFC West

St. Louis Rams 2011 record: –4th in NFC West

PREDICTED SCORE

KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: Steven Jackson has lost a step.Reality: Jackson’s 4.4 ypc was tied for 10th among 19 RBs with at least 200 rushes, perhaps signaling a slowdown. Then again, his 8.7 good-blocking ypa was tied for second among RBs with at least 100 good-blocking attempts. He could be even better in 2012 now that he has slimmed down and is playing for Fisher, a coach who knows how to properly use powerful running backs.

MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPERRB Isaiah PeadAs Jackson heads into his ninth season, he’s more about power than elusiveness. That gives Pead a chance to fill a niche. The 50th pick out of Cincinnati has the acceleration and elusiveness the Rams lack everywhere else on o!ense. I’ll be surprised if Pead doesn’t get 100 carries.

BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVESigning CB Cortland FinneganFinnegan is a Je! Fisher guy to the core and will lead the defense with his toughness, smarts and aggressiveness. Those qualities —even more than his coverage skills—should help the veteran corner make a major impression on a young team that has more talent than people realize.

INSIDER’S VIEWBEST UNIT Defensive lineLong just signed a lucrative four-year extension for a reason: He’s quickly becoming one of the best DEs in football. And Robert Quinn has the ability to be even more dangerous o! the edge. That tells you all you need to know about this constantly improving group. William Hayes is an excellent third DE whose run-stopping ability complements Quinn well.

WORST UNIT LinebackersBesides MLB James Laurinaitis, there isn’t a single starting-caliber player in this corps—and that’s why the Rams had the second-worst rush D in the NFL (152.1 ypg). It’s a shame, because Laurinaitis has developed into a solid all-around player and deserves better support. Jo-Lonn Dunbar is the best of the OLBs, but none of them has much of a ceiling. —M.W.

13 sacks ranked fourth among defensive linemen

Had a streak of six straight games with a sack last season

CHRIS LONG, DE

Bradford’s 2011 interception total of six in 10 games was artificially low—he had six likely picks dropped. His 6.1 ypa, however, was not misleading. It was tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL.

FBO POCKET PROJECTORSam Bradford’s 2011 stats: 53.5% comp., 2,164 yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs

Enter Jeff Fisher. Hope is a few steps behind.

WinLoss


LVH over/under wins

Since 2002, roughly two-thirds of teams with a preseason over/under of six wins or fewer have hit the over. With new coach Je! Fisher, former overall first pick Sam Bradford and improved o!ensive and defensive lines, the Rams should continue the trend. —P.M.

VEGAS VIBE




Bye

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2012 PROJECTIONBradford Average starting QB

0

0

0

BYE-10/28

vs. NE

(in London)

62.5%

19

16

3,649

61.7%

24.4

14.9

3,844.4

P R E V I E W

ESPN (ISSN # 1097-1998) (USPS # 016-356). Volume 15, No. 16 Sept. 3, 2012. ESPN is published biweekly, except monthly in January and July, by ESPN, 77 West 66th St.,

New York, NY, 10023-6201. The subscription price is $26 for one year. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to ESPN,

P.O. Box 37325, Boone, IA 50037-0325. For subscription queries, call customer service at 1-888-267-3684. To change your address, log on to www.accountinfo.espnmag.com.

Wee

k 1

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W

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Week 13 Week 14

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2012 NFL Team Previews

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