2012 NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW - IIIUS Natural Catastrophe Update Carl Hedde ... disasters...

2012 NATURAL CATASTROPHE

YEAR IN REVIEW

January 3, 2013

Questions and Answers

Welcome/Introduction

Terese Rosenthal

US Natural Catastrophe Update

Carl Hedde

Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Ernst Rauch

Economic Implications of Natural Catastrophe Losses

Dr. Robert Hartwig

Agenda

2

You will have an opportunity to ask questions at the conclusion of the

presentation.

To ask a question, please dial 1 4 on your phone.

An operator will facilitate your participation.

Webinar Interactivity

3

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Questions and Answers

Live Tweeting

#NATCAT2012

US NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE

Carl Hedde, SVP, Head of Risk Accumulation

Munich Reinsurance America, Inc.

From 1980 until today all loss

events; for USA and selected

countries in Europe all loss

events since 1970.

Retrospectively, all great

disasters since 1950.

In addition, all major historical

events starting from 79 AD –

eruption of Mt. Vesuvius (3,000

historical data sets).

Currently more than 31,000

data sets

5

The Database Today

MR NatCatSERVICE

One of the world‘s largest databases on natural catastrophes

2012 Headlines

Insured losses in the United States in 2012 totaled $57.9 billion – far

above the 2000 to 2011 average loss of $27 billion (in 2012 Dollars).

Hurricane Sandy makes landfall in New Jersey, becoming the worst

storm to hit northeastern United States since the Great New England

Hurricane of 1938, causing insured losses in excess of $25 billion.

Despite a relatively quiet year for tornadoes, insured losses from

thunderstorm events exceeded $14 billion, the second highest annual

total on record.

Severe drought cripples agriculture over large section of central United

States.

Dry conditions lead to the most damaging wildfires in Colorado history.

6


© 2013 Munich Re

As of January 1, 2013

Number of

Events Fatalities

Estimated Overall

Losses (US $m)

Estimated Insured

Losses (US $m)

Tropical Cyclone 4 143 52,240 26,360

Severe

Thunderstorm 115 118 27,688 14,914

Drought 2 0 20,000 16,000†

Wildfire 38 13 1,112 595

Winter Storm 2 7 81 38

Flood 19 3 13 0

Natural Disaster Losses in the United States 2012

7


© 2013 Munich Re Source: MR NatCatSERVICE

† - Includes Federal Crop Insurance Losses.

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Natural Catastrophes in the USA 1980 – 2012 Number of events

Number

Meteorological events

(Storm)

Hydrological events

(Flood, mass

movement)

Climatological events

(Extreme temperature,

drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events

(Earthquake, tsunami,

volcanic eruption)

3

121

19

41

2012 Total:

184 events

8


© 2013 Munich Re

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Natural catastrophes in the USA 1980 – 2012 Overall and insured losses

(bn US$)

Overall losses (in 2012 values) Insured losses (in 2012 values)

Insured losses in the U.S. In 2012 were the second highest on record.

9


© 2013 Munich Re

Significant Natural Catastrophes, June – Sept 2012 $1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities

Date Event

Estimated Economic

Losses (US $m)

Estimated Insured

Losses (US $m)

June – Sept 2012 Central US Drought 20,000 16,000†

March 2 - 3 Thunderstorms 5,000 2,500

April 2 – 4 Thunderstorms 1,550 775

April 13- 15 Thunderstorms 1,800 910

April 28 – 29 Thunderstorms 4,500 2,500

May 25 – 30 Thunderstorms 3,400 1,700

June 6 – 7 Thunderstorms 1,400 1,000

June 11 – 13 Thunderstorms 1,900 950

June 28 – July 2 Thunderstorms 4,000 2,000

August 26 - 30 Hurricane Isaac 2,000 1,220

October 28 - 30 Hurricane Sandy 50,000 25,000

10 10


© 2013 Munich Re Source: MR NatCatSERVICE

† - Includes Federal Crop Insurance Losses.

Eleven significant natural catastrophes occurred in the United States in 2011.

Sources: MR NatCatSERVICE

Significant Natural Catastrophes, 1950 – 2012 Number of Events ($1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities)

11


© 2013 Munich Re

Photo: NASA

US TROPICAL CYCLONES 2012

Tropical Cyclones Impacting the United States in 2012

Source: NOAA

Isaac

Sandy

Beryl

Debby

13


© 2013 Munich Re

US Hurricanes in 2012

Landfalls on August 28 over the

Mississippi River delta and Port

Fourchon, Louisiana

Minor to moderate wind damage in

Louisiana and Mississippi, indirect

wind damage due to tree fall further

north.

Storm surges up to 11 feet in some

locations, but New Orleans levees

held but some breached south of

city; heavy rainfall caused significant

inland flooding.

Economic Losses in US of $2 billion,

insured losses of $1.2 billion Photo: FEMA

Hurricane Isaac

14


© 2013 Munich Re

US Hurricanes in 2012

Photo: FEMA

Landfalls on October 29 near

Atlantic City, NJ

Minor to moderate wind damage

along coasts of NY and NJ,

widespread indirect wind damage

and power outages due to tree fall

across 15 states.

Record storm surge of 13.88 feet

in Battery Park, NY and 15+ feet

along New Jersey coast.

Economic Losses in U.S. of $50

billion, insured losses of $25 billion

Hurricane Sandy

15


© 2013 Munich Re

Impacts of Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy

Add few more bullet points

Photo: FEMA

16


© 2013 Munich Re

Other US Tropical Cyclones in 2012

Landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville, Florida as a tropical storm with sustained

winds of 70 mph; strongest May tropical storm ever to make US landfall.

Minor wind damage and flooding in Florida and Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical Storm Debby

Landfall on June 26 near Steinhatchee, Florida as a tropical storm with

sustained winds of 40 mph.

Torrential rains of up to 25” caused extensive flooding in the Florida Panhandle,

with lesser flooding elsewhere in the state.

17


© 2013 Munich Re

There has not been a major hurricane landfall in the US since Wilma in 2005.

Number of US Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

1900 - 2012

Source: NOAA 18


© 2013 Munich Re

The current 5-year average (2007-2012) insured tropical cyclone loss is $8.9 billion

per year.

Insured US Tropical Cyclone Losses, 1980 - 2012

Sources: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE, NFIP 19


© 2013 Munich Re

Source: FEMA

2012 US THUNDERSTORM SEASON

2012 US Tornado Count

21


© 2013 Munich Re

Source: Property Claims Service

MR NatCatSERVICE

Notable Thunderstorm Events Second Half 2012

Source: FEMA

June 28 – July 2: Long-lived

derecho (straight-line windstorm)

causes extensive wind damage

from Indiana to Maryland.

Millions were without power for

days. US$ 2 billion insured loss.

December 25 - 26: Tornado

outbreak in deep south along a

strong cold front. Over 51

tornadoes reported. Insured

losses to be determined.

22


© 2013 Munich Re

Source: Property Claims Service

MR NatCatSERVICE

US Thunderstorm Loss Trends Annual Totals 1980 – 2012

Average thunderstorm losses have increased sevenfold since 1980.

First Half 2011

$16.4 bn 2011 Total:

$16.4 bn

23


© 2013 Munich Re

OTHER US NATURAL CATASTROPHES IN 2012

Source: FEMA

Current US Drought Conditions

25


© 2013 Munich Re

2012 US Drought Impacts

Worst drought in at least 25

years, dry to severe drought

conditions affected over 1,600

counties across 36 states at its

peak – over 60% of the United

States.

Severe damage to crops

(soybeans, corn) and livestock

Low water levels along

Mississippi River disrupted

shipping.

Economic Losses are estimated

at $20 billion.

26


© 2013 Munich Re

Number of Acres Burned in Wildfires, 1980 – 2012

Source: National Interagency Fire Center 27 27


© 2013 Munich Re

Notable Wildfires in 2012

Colorado: “High Park” fire near

Fort Collins destroyed 257

homes and “Waldo Canyon” fire

near Colorado Springs destroyed

over 300 homes, becoming the

most damaging fire in state

history. Insured losses from both

fires are estimated at $450

million.

New Mexico: “Whitewater-

Baldy” fire scorched over

278,000 acres over May and

June, becoming the largest

wildfire in state history, but with

minimal insurance impacts.

Source: FEMA

Source: USFS

28


© 2013 Munich Re

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/Whitewater_baldy_night_fire_2012-06-06.jpg

2012 US Summary

Insured losses in the United States in 2012 totaled $57.9 billion – far

above the 2000 to 2011 average loss of $27 billion (in 2012 Dollars).

Hurricane Sandy makes landfall in New Jersey, becoming the worst

storm to hit northeastern United States since the Great New England

Hurricane of 1938, causing insured losses in excess of $25 billion.

Despite a relatively quiet year for tornadoes, insured losses from

thunderstorm events exceeded $14 billion, the second highest annual

total on record.

Severe drought cripples agriculture over large section of central United

States.

Dry conditions lead to the most damaging wildfires in Colorado history.

29


© 2013 Munich Re

NATURAL CATASTROPHES WORLDWIDE

Ernst Rauch

Head of Corporate Climate Centre

Munich Re

Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 Significant events

Hurricane Sandy,

USA, Caribbean

Drought, USA

Earthquakes, Italy

Series of

tornadoes, USA

Record storm surge, New York City

severely affected

With estimated 25bn US$

insured losses is Sandy the

second costliest storm after

Hurricane Katrina (62bn US$

in today’s values).

2012 was - until November 2012 -

the warmest year in the US

Losses in agriculture,

infrastructure and navigation.

Series of earthquakes in Northern

Italy. Strongest earthquakes:

20 May: magnitude 5.9

29 May magnitudes 5.8

The Emilia Romagna

earthquakes are with 1.6bn

US$ the costliest losses for

the Italian insurance industry.

Early start of the tornado season.

From March until April

insured losses due to

thunderstorms and

tornadoes amounted to 7bn

US$.

31


© 2013 Munich Re Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013

Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 Facts

Number of events: 900

The number is well above the 10-year-average (2002-2011: 800).

Overall direct losses: US$ 160bn

2011 is slightly below the 10-year average (2002-2011: US$ 165bn)

Insured losses: US$ 65bn

The insured losses are above the 10-year-average (US$ 50bn)

2012 is the third costliest year for the insurance industry worldwide (after 2011 and 2005)

and the second costliest year in US (after 2005)

Fatalities: 9,500

The number is very low in comparison with previous years (2002-2011:106,000).

The deadliest event was Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines, with more than 1,000 deaths

32



Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2012 Number of events

Number


(Storm)

Hydrological events

(Flood, mass

movement)




Geophysical events


volcanic eruption)

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

33



50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2012 Overall and insured losses

(bn US$)

Overall losses (in 2012 values) Insured losses (in 2012 values)

34



3%

83%

1%11%13%

63%

14%

10%

*in 2012 values

*in 2012 values

Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 Percentage distribution


(Storm)

Hydrological events

(Flood, mass

movement)




Geophysical events


volcanic eruption)

7%

45%36%

12% 7%

27%

48%

18%

905 Loss events 9,600 Fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 160bn Insured losses* US$ 65bn

35



Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 The five costliest natural catastrophes for the insurance industry

Date Region Event Fatalities

Insured losses

US$ m

24-31.10.2012 USA,

Caribbean Hurricane Sandy 220 25,000

June-Sept. USA Drought 15,000-17,000 agriculture losses / average

year approx. 9bn

2-4.3.2012 USA Severe storms,

tornadoes 41 2,500

28-29.4.2012 USA Severe storms,

tornadoes 350 2,500

28.6-2.7.2012 USA Severe storms,

tornadoes 18 2,000

36



Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 Insured losses US$ 65bn - Percentage distribution per continent

Continent Insured losses

US$ m

America (North and South America) 60,000

Europe 3,200

Africa 200

Asia 1,700

Australia/Oceania 300

5%

<1%

<1%

91% <3%

37



Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 Insured losses US$ 65bn - Percentage distribution per continent

Continent Insured losses

US$ m


Europe 3,200

Africa 200

Asia 1,700

Australia/Oceania 300

5%

<1%

<1%

65%

91% 2012: 91 %

1980-2011: 65 %

<3%

38



Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012 Overall losses US$ 160bn - Percentage distribution per continent

Continent Overall losses

US$ m


Europe 21,000

Africa 1,000

Asia 26,000

Australia/Oceania 1,000

69%

<1%

13%

<1%

<1%

16%

39



Earthquake

Mexico, 20 March

Earthquake

Italy,

29 May/3 June Earthquake

Iran, 11 August

Severe Storms, tornadoes

USA, 2–4 March

Severe Weather

USA, 28–29 April

Severe storms

USA, 28 June –2 July

Hurricane Isaac

USA, Caribbean

24–31 August

Hurricane Sandy

USA, Caribbean

24–31 October

Floods, flash floods

Australia, Jan – Feb

Flash Floods

Russia, 6–8 July

Floods

China, 21–24 July

Drought

USA, Summer

Cold Wave

Eastern Europe, Jan – Feb

Cold Wave

Afghanistan, Jan – Mar

Floods

United Kingdom,

21–27 November

Typhoon Bopha

Philippines,

4–5 December

Floods. flash floods

Australia, Feb – Mar

Typhoon Haikui

China,

8–9 August

Floods

Nigeria, Jul – Oct

Floods, hailstorms

South Africa, 20 –21 October

Floods

Pakistan, 3 –27 September

Floods

Columbia, Mar – Jun

Hailstorms, severe weather

Canada, 12–14 August

Number of events: 905

Natural Catastrophes 2012

Geophysical events

(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)


(storm)

Selection of significant

Natural catastrophes

Natural catastrophes Hydrological events

(flood, mass movement)


(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Winter Storm Andrea

Europe, 5–6 January

40



World map

Earthakes Italy May 2012

Region Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities

Northern Italy, Emilia Romagna US$ 16bn US$ 1.6bn 18

Costliest insured loss 2012 outside US

41



Typhoon Bopha, Philippines 4 – 5 December 2012

Region Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities

South Philippines US$ 600m minor 1,100

Source: Reuters

Deadliest event of 2012

42



Natural catastrophes worldwide 2012

Summary

90% of total insured losses worldwide (US$ 65bn) were attributable to the U.S.

(long-term average is = 57%)

Hurricane Sandy and the U.S. drought were the costliest events

2011 was a year with no catastrophic events in terms of loss of lives, however,

it was the third costliest year for the insurance industry (after 2005 and 2011)

and the second costliest for the U.S. (after 2005)

The earthquakes in Italy in May were the costliest insured losses in Italy until today

43



Market & Financial Impact of Catastrophe Loss:

Full Year 2012

Insurance Information Institute

January 3, 2013

Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist

Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038

Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org

45

P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview

Industry Was Very Strong When Sandy Struck;

Financial Strength Remains Intact for 2013

45

P/C Net Income After Taxes 1991–2012:Q3 ($ Millions)

$1

4,1

78

$5

,84

0

$1

9,3

16

$1

0,8

70

$2

0,5

98

$2

4,4

04 $

36

,81

9

$3

0,7

73

$2

1,8

65

$3

,04

6

$3

0,0

29

$6

2,4

96

$3

,04

3

$3

5,2

04

$1

9,1

50

$2

6,9

81

$2

8,6

72

-$6,970

$6

5,7

77

$4

4,1

55

$2

0,5

59

$3

8,5

01

-$10,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12:Q3

2005 ROE*= 9.6%

2006 ROE = 12.7%

2007 ROE = 10.9%

2008 ROE = 0.1%

2009 ROE = 5.0%

2010 ROE = 6.6%

2011 ROAS1 = 3.5%

2012:Q3 ROAS1 = 6.3%

P-C Industry 2012:Q3 profits were up 222% from 2011:Q3, due primarily to lower catastrophe losses

* ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 6.6% ROAS through 2012:Q3, 4.6% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.

Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What It Once Was: Investment Impact on ROEs

Combined Ratio / ROE

* 2008 -2012 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2012:Q3 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 100.9, ROAS = 6.3%; 2011 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 108.2, ROAS = 3.5%.

Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.

97.5

100.6 100.1 100.8

92.7

101.099.3

100.9100.0

106.4

95.7

6.6%

4.6%

7.6%7.4%

4.4%

9.6%

15.9%

14.3%

12.7% 10.9%

8.8%

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1978 1979 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012:Q3

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

Combined Ratio ROE*

Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s Depressed Investment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs

A combined ratio of about 100 generates an ROE of ~6.6% in 2012, ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10,

10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979

Year Ago

2011:Q3 = 108.1, 3.1% ROE

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

*1

2:

Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2012:Q3*

*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011 figure is an estimate based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2012 exclude

mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2012:Q3 ROAS = 6.2% including M&FG.

Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.

1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%

1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%

1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%

9 Years

2011:

4.6%*

History suggests next ROE

peak will be in 2016-2017

ROE

1975: 2.4%

2012:Q3: 6.6%

SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY

49

Industry Claims Paying Capital Was at a Record High When Hurricane Sandy

Struck; Capacity Remains Close to Historic Highs for 2013;

No “Fiscal Cliff” in the P/C (Re)Insurance Industry

49

50

Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2012:Q3

Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.

($ Billions)

$487.1

$496.6

$512.8$521.8

$478.5

$455.6

$437.1

$463.0

$490.8

$511.5

$540.7

$530.5

$544.8

$559.2 $559.1

$538.6

$550.3

$567.8

$583.5

$570.7$566.5

$505.0

$515.6$517.9

$420

$440

$460

$480

$500

$520

$540

$560

$580

06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3

2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak

Surplus as of 9/30/12 was up $12.8B or 2.2% from the

previous record high of $570.7B set as of 3/31/12.

*Includes $22.5B of paid-in capital

from a holding company parent for

one insurer’s investment in a non-

insurance business in early 2010.

The Industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.80

of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying

status in its history.

Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses

The P/C Insurance Industry Both Entered and Emerged from the 2012 Hurricane

Season Very Strong Financially. There is No Insurance Industry “Fiscal Cliff”

51

Catastrophe Losses Impact Trajectory of Premium Growth

51

PREMIUM GROWTH

52

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, 1971—2012:Q3

(Percent)

1975-78 1984-87 2000-03

Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline

Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.

2012:Q3 growth

was +4.2%

53

P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter

Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

Sustained Growth in Written Premiums (vs. the same quarter, prior year) Will Continue into 2013

10

.2%

15

.1%

16

.8%

16

.7%

12

.5%

10

.1%

9.7

%7

.8%

7.2

%5

.6%

2.9

% 5.5

%-4

.6%

-4.1

%-5

.8%

-1.6

%

10

.3%

10

.2% 1

3.4

%6

.6%

-1.6

%

2.1

%0

.0%

-1.9

%

0.5

%-1

.8%

-0.7

%-4

.4%

-3.7

%

-5.3

%-5

.2%

-1.4

%-1

.3%

1.3

%

2.3

%1

.7% 3.5

%1

.6% 4

.1%

3.8

%3

.1%

4.2

%5

.1%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2002:Q

1

2002:Q

2

2002:Q

3

2002:Q

4

2003:Q

1

2003:Q

2

2003:Q

3

2003:Q

4

2004:Q

1

2004:Q

2

2004:Q

3

2004:Q

4

2005:Q

1

2005:Q

2

2005:Q

3

2005:Q

4

2006:Q

1

2006:Q

2

2006:Q

3

2006:Q

4

2007:Q

1

2007:Q

2

2007:Q

3

2007:Q

4

2008:Q

1

2008:Q

2

2008:Q

3

2008:Q

4

2009:Q

1

2009:Q

2

2009:Q

3

2009:Q

4

2010:Q

1

2010:Q

2

2010:Q

3

2010:Q

4

2011:Q

1

2011:Q

2

2011:Q

3

2011:Q

4

2012:Q

1

2012:Q

2

2012:Q

3

Premium growth in Q3 2012 was up 5.1% over Q3 2011, the strongest growth since Q4 2006

54

Growth in Net Written Premium by Segment, 2012:9 Mos. vs. 2011:9 Mos.*

*Excludes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.

Source: ISO/PCI; Insurance Information Institute

3.2% 3.2%

4.0%

2.4%

4.2%

3.3%

6.1%

3.8%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

All Lines Personal Lines

Predominating

Commercial Lines

Predominating

Diversified Insurers

2011: 9 Mos. 2012: 9 Mos.

(Percent)

UNDERWRITING

55

Underwriting Losses in 2012 (and 2011) Were Elevated by

High Catastrophe Losses

55

56

P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2012:Q3*

* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2012. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.2; 2012:Q3=100.0.

Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.

95.7

99.3100.8

106.4

100.0101.0

92.6

100.8

98.4100.1

107.5

115.8

90

100

110

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012:Q3

Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)

As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out

Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums

Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases

Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net

Losses

Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases

Avg. CAT Losses,

More Reserve Releases

Higher CAT

Losses, Shrinking Reserve

Releases, Toll of Soft

Market

Cyclical Deterioration

Lower CAT

Losses Before Sandy

Underwriting Gain (Loss) 1975–2012:Q3*

* Includes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers in all years.

Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

Large Underwriting Losses Are NOT Sustainable in Current Investment Environment

-$55

-$45

-$35

-$25

-$15

-$5

$5

$15

$25

$35

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Cumulative underwriting deficit from 1975 through

2011 is $479B

($ Billions) Underwriting

losses through 2012:Q3

totaled $6.7B

High cat losses in 2011 led to the highest

underwriting loss since 2002

58

Combined Ratios by Predominant Business Segment, 2012:9 Mos. vs. 2011:9 Mos.*

*Excludes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.

Source: ISO/PCI; Insurance Information Institute

109.4

108.0

105.4

112.0

100.099.4

98.6

102.7

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

All Lines Personal Lines

Predominating

Commercial Lines

Predominating

Diversified Insurers

2011:9M 2012:9M

(Percent)

The combined ratios for both personal and commercial lines

improved substantially through 2012:Q3, prior

to Hurricane Sandy

INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY

59

Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing

59

Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–2012E1

$38.9$37.1 $36.7

$38.7

$54.6

$51.2

$47.1 $47.6$49.0

$46.8

$39.6

$49.5

$52.3

$30

$40

$50

$60

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E

Investment Income Fell in 2012 Due to Persistently Low Interest Rates, Putting Additional Pressure on (Re) Insurance Pricing

1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends. *2012F is based on annualized 9M:2012 actual figure of $35.131B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

($ Billions)

Investment earnings in 2012 were running 14% below their 2007 pre-crisis peak

Hurricane Sandy Summary

61

Sandy Will Become One of the Most Expensive Events in

Insurance History

61

Hurricane Sandy Insured Loss Estimates: Late Season Large Loss* ($ Billions)

$10 - $20B

$16 - $22B

$20 - $25B

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

Eqecat

AIR

RMS

*US insured property and business interruption losses only. Sandy’s landfall in the northeast US occurred Oct. 29, 2012.

Sources: RMS (11/14/12 est.), AIR (11/26/12 est.), Eqecat (11/1/12 est.); Compiled by the Insurance Information Institute.

Average of the midpoints

of the 3 risk modeler

estimates is $18.8 billion

63

Top 12 Most Costly Hurricanes in U.S. History

(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)

*Estimate as of 12/09/12 based on average of current range estimate midpoints from AIR, Eqecat and RMS; Excludes NFIP.

Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.

$9.2$11.1

$13.4

$18.8

$25.6

$48.7

$8.7$7.8$6.7$5.6$5.6$4.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Irene

(2011)

Jeanne

(2004)

Frances

(2004)

Rita

(2005)

Hugo

(1989)

Ivan

(2004)

Charley

(2004)

Wilma

(2005)

Ike

(2008)

Sandy*

(2012)

Andrew

(1992)

Katrina

(2005)

Hurricane Sandy could become the 3rd costliest

hurricane in US insurance history

Hurricane Irene became the 12th most expense hurricane in

US history in 2011

10 of the 12 most costly hurricanes in insurance

history occurred over the past 8 years (2004—2012)

64

Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2012*


*Figures do not include federally insured flood losses.

**Average of range estimates of $35B - $40B as of 1/4/12 adjusted to 2012 dollars; Privately insured losses only.

***Estimate as of 12/09/12, based on average of midpoints from range estimates from AIR, RMS and Eqecat.

Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute research.

$11.1$13.4 $13.4$13.4

$18.8$23.9 $24.6$25.6

$38.6

$48.7

$7.8 $8.1 $8.5 $8.7 $9.2 $9.6

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Hugo

(1989)

Winter

Storm

Daria

(1991)

Chile

Quake

(2010)

Ivan

(2004)

Charley

(2004)

Typhoon

Mirielle

(1991)

Wilma

(2005)

Thailand

Floods

(2011)

New

Zealand

Quake

(2011)

Ike

(2008)

Sandy

(2012)**

Northridge

(1994)

WTC

Terror

Attack

(2001)

Andrew

(1992)

Japan

Quake,

Tsunami

(2011)**

Katrina

(2005)

5 of the top 14 most expensive

catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 3 years Hurricane Sandy could

become the 6th costliest event in global (private)

insurance history

65

Top 16 Most Costly Disasters in U.S. History


*Estimate as of 12/09/12 based on average of range midpoints from AIR, RMS and Eqecat..

Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.

$7.8 $8.7 $9.2$11.1

$13.4

$18.8$23.9 $24.6$25.6

$48.7

$7.5$7.1$6.7$5.6$5.6$4.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Irene (2011) Jeanne

(2004)

Frances

(2004)

Rita

(2005)

Tornadoes/

T-Storms

(2011)

Tornadoes/

T-Storms

(2011)

Hugo

(1989)

Ivan

(2004)

Charley

(2004)

Wilma

(2005)

Ike

(2008)

Sandy*

(2012)

Northridge

(1994)

9/11 Attack

(2001)

Andrew

(1992)

Katrina

(2005)

Hurricane Sandy could become the 5th

costliest event in US insurance history

Hurricane Irene became the 12th most expense hurricane

in US history in 2011

Includes Tuscaloosa, AL,

tornado

Includes Joplin, MO,

tornado

NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo has requested $42 billion in federal aid. NJ Gov. Chris

Christie has requested $29.4B.

66

$1

2.6

$1

1.0

$3

.8

$1

4.3

$1

1.6

$6

.1

$3

4.7

$7

.6

$1

6.3

$3

3.7

$7

3.4

$1

0.5

$7

.5

$2

9.2

$1

1.5

$1

4.4

$3

3.1

$3

5.0

$1

4.0

$4

.8

$8

.0

$3

7.8

$8

.8

$2

6.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12*

US Insured Catastrophe Losses

*As of 1/2/13. Includes $18.8B gross loss estimate for Hurricane Sandy.

Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.)

Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

US CAT Losses in 2012 Could Become the 2nd or 3rd Highest in US History on An Inflation-Adjusted Basis

(Pvt Insured). 2011 Losses Were the 5th Highest

2012 CAT losses were down nearly 50% from 2011 until Sandy struck in late October

Record Tornado Losses Caused

2011 CAT Losses to Surge

($ Billions, 2012 Dollars)

66

Auto,

230,500 ,

17%

Commercial

, 167,500 ,

12%

Homeowner

, 982,000 ,

71%

Hurricane Sandy resulted in an

estimated 1.38 million privately insured

claims resulting in an estimated $10 to $25

billion in insured losses. Hurricane

Katrina produced 1.74 million claims and

$47.6B in losses (in 2011 $)

*PCS claim count estimate as of 11/26/12. Loss estimate represents high and low end estimates by risk modelers RMS, Eqecat and AIR. PCS

estimate of insured losses as of 11/26/12 $11 billion. All figures exclude losses paid by the NFIP.

Source: PCS; AIR, Eqecat, AIR Worldwide; Insurance Information Institute. 67

Hurricane Sandy: Number of Claims by Type*

Hurricane Sandy: Number of Homeowners Claims by State*

New Jersey,

360,000 ,

36%

All Other,

292,000 ,

30%

New York,

330,000 ,

34%

Hurricane Sandy

•Estimated 982,000 homeowners

claims**

•$6.6 billion in insured losses.

•Average loss per claim is $6,718

•About 1/3 of claims in NY, 1/3 in NJ and

1/3 in all other states

*Preliminary as of 11/26/12.

Source: PCS. 68

Hurricane Sandy: Value of Homeowners Claims Paid, by State* ($ Millions)

New Jersey,

$2,500 , 38%New York,

$2,300 , 35%

All Other,

$1,797 , 27%


Source: PCS. 69

Hurricane Sandy

•Estimated 982,000 homeowners

claims**

•$6.6 billion in insured losses.


•Claims in NJ estimated at $2.5

billion (38%) and $2.3 billion in NY (35%)

Hurricane Sandy: Number of Auto Claims by State*

New Jersey,

60,000 , 26%

All Other,

40,500 , 18%

New York,

130,000 ,

56%

Hurricane Sandy

•Estimated 230,500 vehicle claims

•$779 million in insured losses.


•Nearly 60% of the claims occurred in

NY state.


Source: PCS. 70

Hurricane Sandy: Value of Auto Claims Paid, by State* ($ Millions)

New Jersey,

$250 , 32%

All Other,

$129 , 17%

New York,

$400 , 51%

Hurricane Sandy

•Estimated 230,500 vehicle claims

•$779 million in insured losses.


•About 50% of the claim dollars will be

paid in NY, 32% in NJ.


Source: PCS. 71

72

Flood Loss Paid by the National Flood Insurance Program, 1980-2012E

*Estimate as of 11/25/12.

Sources: Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP; Insurance Information Institute.

Billions (Original Values)

$0.23 $0.37 $0.17$1.30

$0.25

$17.74

$0.64 $0.61

$3.47

$0.78 $0.77$1.85

$7.50

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita accounted for the majority of

2005’s record $17.4B payout

Hurricane Ike

72

Hurricane Sandy and other events could result in $7.5

billion in payouts from the NFIP in 2012, second only to 2005

and potentially exhausting the NFIP’s borrowing authority

Source: Wharton Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, Issue Brief, Nov. 2012; Insurance Information Institute.

Residential NFIP Flood Take-Up Rates in NJ (2010) & Sandy Storm Surge

73

Flood coverage penetration rates were extremely low in

many very vulnerable areas in NJ, with take-up rates far below

50% in many areas

Source: Wharton Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, Issue Brief, Nov. 2012; Insurance Information Institute.

Residential NFIP Flood Take-Up Rates in NY, CT (2010) & Sandy Storm Surge

74

Flood coverage

penetration rates were

extremely low in many very vulnerable

areas of NY and CT, with take-up rates far below 50% in many areas

75

Federal Aid Requests for States With Greatest Sandy Impact & Federal Aid Proposals (as of 1/2/13)

*As of Jan. 2, 2013.

Source: New York Times, Dec. 6, 2012; Insurance Information Institute research.

Billions

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

New York New Jersey Connecticut Obama

Administration

Proposal

Senate

Proposal

(Dec. 28)

House

Proposal

(Jan. 2)Repair Mitigation/Prevention

States Requested Enormous Sums in Sandy Aid in the Middle of the “Fiscal Cliff” Debate, Causing Delays

$33.0

$7.4

$29.5

$42.0 $9.0

$6.0

$36.9 $7.9

75

$33B to repair subways, hospitals and other facilities;

$9B to upgrade infrastructure against future

storms

$3.2

$60.4

$39.5B to repair schools roads, bridges,

businesses, homes and other facilities; $7.4B to

for mitigation and prevention against

future storms

$3.2B to bury power lines,

upgrade transmission

systems, build sewage treatment plants and other

mitigation projects

$60.2

$9.0

$51.0

House vote scheduled for Jan. 5

$60.0*

House vote scheduled for Jan. 15

Beyond Hurricane Sandy

76

Before Sandy Struck, Privately Insured Catastrophe Losses Were

Down 51% from 2011 Levels

76

77

1,1

33

1,1

32 1

,29

7

1,1

73

1,0

82 1

,23

4

1,1

73

1,1

48

1,4

24

1,3

45

1,0

71 1,2

16

94

1

1,3

76

1,2

64

1,1

03

1,0

98

1,6

92

1,1

46 1,2

82

1,0

64

1,819

1,6

91

553

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12*

Nu

mb

er

of

To

rna

do

es

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Nu

mb

er o

f De

ath

s

Number of Tornadoes

Number of Deaths

*Through Dec. 19, 2012.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

Number of Tornadoes and Related Deaths, 1990 – 2012*

Tornadoes claimed 553 lives in 2011, the most since 1925

1,064 tornadoes have been recorded so far this year, 68 deaths*

2012 Tornado Losses Got Off to an Ominous Beginning, but Slowed. Insured Losses from Tornadoes and Thunderstorms in 2012 Totaled $14.9B.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

U.S. Tornado Count, Departure from Inflation-Adjusted Running Total, 2011 vs. 2012*

78

*Through Nov. 30, 2012.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

2011 count was far above

average

2012 count was below

average, but damages were

still high

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Location of Tornadoes in the US, 2012*

*Through Dec. 19 2012.

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2012_annual_summary.html# 79

1,066 tornadoes killed 68 people through Dec. 19

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2012_annual_summary.html



Location of Tornadoes in the US, 2011


1,894 tornadoes killed 553 people in 2011, including

at least 340 on April 26 mostly in

the Tuscaloosa area, and 130 in Joplin on May 22


Location of Large Hail Reports in the US, 2012*

81


Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2012_annual_summary.html#

There were 7,022 “Large Hail”

reports through Dec. 19, 2012,

causing extensive damage to homes,

businesses and vehicles




Location of Large Hail Reports in the US, 2011


There were 9,417 “Large Hail”

reports in 2011, causing extensive damage to homes,

businesses and vehicles


Location of Wind Damage Reports in the US, 2012*

83



There were 14,043 “Wind Damage” reports through Dec. 19, causing

extensive damage to homes and,

businesses

Extreme density due to late June derecho

Hurricane Sandy resulted

in a large volume of wind damage reports




Location of Wind Damage Reports in the US, 2011


There were 18,685 “Wind Damage” reports through Dec. 27, causing

extensive damage to homes and,

businesses


Severe Weather Reports, 2012*

85



There were 22,131 severe

weather reports through Dec. 19; including

1,066 tornadoes;

7,022 “Large Hail” reports

and 14,043 high wind events




Severe Weather Reports, 2011

86 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#

There were 29,996 severe

weather reports in 2011;

including 1,894 tornadoes;

9,417 “Large Hail” reports

and 18,685 high wind events


Large Hail,

7,022 , 32%

Wind

Damage,

14,043 , 63%

Tornadoes,

1,066 , 5%

Tornadoes accounted for just 5% of all Severe

Weather Reports in 2012 compared to 6% in 2011, though they caused less damage and far

fewer deaths


Number of Severe Weather Reports in US, by Type, 2012


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Contents

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Perils, Risks and Insurance

Perils

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variability

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Insurance

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United States and Canada

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2012 NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW - IIIUS Natural Catastrophe Update Carl Hedde ... disasters...

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