2012 Market Data from Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors...

2012 Market Data from Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist, California

Association of Realtors Hosted by Tom Wilson, Wilson Investment Properties

Guest on the show – Richard Crouch, Realtor

through August 20122 - as discussed on KDOW

Courtesy of Richard & Kandis

How is theMarket?

CaliforniaReal Estate

SOURCE: California Association of Realtors®

REO 14.4%

Short Sales 23.0%

Other Dis-tressed Sales

0.4%

Equity Sales 62.2%

Share of Equity Sales

Trending Upward Since Early 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Equity Sales Short Sale REO

California Equity

SOURCE: Core Logic

29.0%

4.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Q4-2009

Q1-2010

Q2-2010

Q3-2010

Q4-2010

Q1-2011

Q2-2011

Q3-2011

Q4-2011

Q1-2012

Q2-2012

Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA

71% with Equity

Median Price of Existing Detached Homes


Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 $-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000 P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230-59% fromThe Peak

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

120%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

CA US

Unemployment

Heading Down: At 3-year LowsSOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

California Employment

California Added ~300k Jobs from August 2011 to August 2012

Jan-0

8

Mar-

08

May-0

8

Jul-

08

Sep-0

8

Nov-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

May-0

9

Jul-

09

Sep-0

9

Nov-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar-

10

May-1

0

Jul-

10

Sep-1

0

Nov-1

0

Jan-1

1

Mar-

11

May-1

1

Jul-

11

Sep-1

1

Nov-1

1

Jan-1

2

Mar-

12

May-1

2

Jul-

12

-160000

-110000

-60000

-10000

40000

90000

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division Month-to-Month Changes

Consumer Confidence

Things are Getting Better

SOURCE: The Conference Board

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

20

20

40

60

80

100

120

California Prices


California Prices Over-Shot the Trend LineSnapping Back Slowly

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

California

CA Price Trend

US

Housing Affordability


California Remains at a Record HighBut continues to trail the U.S.

Q1

20

05

Q2

20

05

Q3

20

05

Q4

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q2

20

06

Q3

20

06

Q4

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q2

20

07

Q3

20

07

Q4

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% CA US

Mortgage Rates

SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

At 50-year Lows

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-120%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

FRMARMFederal Funds

Tighter Lending

Low Inventory


Pushing Prices up

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Equity Sales Short Sale REO

Multiple Offers


Highest in the past 12-years

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

657%

4.2

% with Multiple Offers # of Multiple offers (Average)

Investment Properties


17%

83%

Investment to Flip

Rental Property

Cash Buyers


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%30%

% of All Cash Sales

Almost 1/3 of Buyers Paid with All Cash

Bay Area Local Real Estate

Sales of Existing Detached Homes


August 2012: 4,255 Units Up 9.2% Year-To-Year

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-120

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

SalesUNITS

Sales by County


Alameda

Contra Costa

(Central County)

Marin Napa San Francisco

San Ma-teo

Santa Clara

Solano Sonoma0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 August-11 August-12

Distressed Properties


AlamedaContra Costa Marin

NapaSan Mateo

Santa Clara Solano

Sonoma

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

9%8% 9% 12%

5%5%

25%

12%

15%14% 16%

24%

10% 16%

35%

20%

Short Sales

REO Sales

Moving ForwardCalifornia Real Estate

Housing Forecast


2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012p

2013f

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

523,250.0530,000.0

Sales of Existing Detached Homes

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p

2013f

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$317,020

$335,000

Median Price

Pent-Up Housing Demand is Looming


2000-

2001

2001-

2002

2002-

2003

2003-

2004

2004-

2005

2005-

2006

2006-

2007

2007-

2008

2008-

2009

2009-

2010

2010-

2011

2012

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

11,400,000

11,600,000

11,800,000

12,000,000

12,200,000

12,400,000

12,600,000

12,800,000

13,000,000

13,200,000

13,400,000

Total Population, California

Number of Households, California (right axis)

Projected linear estimate

Projection, based on U.S. 0.55% growth rate

In t

housands

377K

575K

Construction

The Numbers are ImprovingSOURCE: CA Employment Development Department

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2012 Market Data from Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors...

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Transcript of 2012 Market Data from Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors...