2012 Crop Market Outlook
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2012 Crop Market Outlook AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911
description
2012 Crop Market Outlook. AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of 2012 Crop Market Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2012 Crop Market Outlook
AFBF Commodity Outlook ConferenceBaltimore, Maryland
Oct. 11, 2012
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 96.9
Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 122.0
Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 10,706
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 988
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 28 28 75
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,514 11,769
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,562 4,150
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,000 4,500
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,421 1,350
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,543 1,150
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,526 11,150
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 988 619
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 7.80
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2
Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 37.8
Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 2,860
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 215 169
Imports (mil. bu.) 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,050
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,540
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 110 130 92 115
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,360 1,265
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 2,920
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 130
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.50 15.25
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7
Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3
Production (mil. bu.) 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,269
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 306 657 976 862 743
Imports (mil. bu.) 127 119 97 112 130
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,142
Food (mil. bu.) 927 919 926 941 950
Seed (mil. bu.) 78 69 71 76 73
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 255 150 132 164 315
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,015 879 1,289 1,050 1,150
Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,488
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 657 976 862 743 654
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.24 8.10
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 9.47 9.15 10.97 14.74 12.36
Yield (lb./acre) 813 777 812 790 795
Production (mil. bales) 12.82 12.19 18.10 15.57 17.29
Beg. Stocks (mil. bales) 10.05 6.34 2.95 2.60 3.35
Imports (mil. bales) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01
Total Supply (mil. bales) 22.87 18.53 21.06 18.19 20.64
Domestic Use (mil. bales) 3.59 3.55 3.90 3.30 3.40
Exports (mil. bales) 13.26 12.04 14.38 11.71 11.60
Total Use (mil. bales) 16.85 15.59 18.28 15.01 15.00
Ending Stocks (mil. bales) 6.34 2.95 2.60 3.35 5.60
Average Farm Price ($/lb.) 0.478 0.629 0.815 0.883 0.680
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
5/1/2012 6/1/2012 7/1/2012 8/1/2012 9/1/2012 10/1/2012Corn Soybean Wheat Cotton
Price Ratios Since May 1
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Conditions
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Corn Yields
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Objective Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Soybean Yields
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Objective Soybean Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Winter Wheat Production
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Other Spring Wheat Production
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Durum Wheat Production
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Cotton Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Cotton Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Japan
Mexico Taiwan Egypt
Unknown
OtherSouth Korea
China
Total
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Mill
ion
bu
she
ls
-31.5%
-17.2%
-74.8%
-77.4% -100.0%
-40.4%
-56.9%
-39.0%
15.2%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
China
EU
Japan Mexico
Taiwan
Total
Indonesia
Unknown
Other
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mill
ion
bu
she
ls
23.8%
206.4%-21.2% -17.3%
72.8%
177.8%
66.8%
39.5%
-27.8%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Japan
Mexico
South Korea
Unknown
Total
Philippines
Mexico
Other
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Mill
ion
bu
she
ls
-9.4%-1.4% -5.1% 0.0%
39.1%
-46.3%
-10.8%
-18.1%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cotton Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
China
Turkey Thailand Vietnam
Unknown
Total
Mexico
Other
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
1,0
00
Ba
les
3.2%
-17.9%
3.4%
-41.1% -48.3%
-93.9%
-19.6%
-41.9%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Mill
ion
bush
els
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE-EIA
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Mill
ion
gallo
ns
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
$ pe
r bu
shel
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012
6.90
5.93
5.58
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
$ pe
r bu
shel
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012
14.37
12.7012.29
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80
9.00
9.20
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4
$ pe
r bu
shel
Current Wheat Futures
Source: KCBOT, 10/10/2012
8.09 8.16
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Cotton Futures
Source: ICE, 10/10/2012
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Cen
ts p
er p
oun
d
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Total Acreage Shift
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Acreage Shift by State
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: Planted in 2012Bottom: Change from 2011Units: 1,000 acres
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Acreage Shift by Crop
Source: USDA-NASS
Acreage change from 2011Units: 1,000 acres
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2012 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issuesBiofuel and export strengthWorldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
2012/13
Futures
(10/10/12)
2013/14
Futures
(10/10/12)
Corn $7.90 $6.90 $5.93
Soybeans $16.00 $14.37 $12.70
Wheat $8.10 $8.09 $8.16
Cotton $0.70 ~$0.75
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
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