2012 02-us-poll-charts-1

2

Methodology

On behalf of The Israel Project, Public Opinion

Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Research conducted a national survey of N=800

registered voters.

The survey was administered by phone and was

conducted February 26-28, 2012. The survey has

a margin of error of +3.46%.

Opinion elites are defined as those voters who

have a college education and have a household

income over $80,000.

4

24%

30%

23%

38% 34%

48%

61%

71% 69%

59% 66%

58%

44%

63% 60%

57% 56% 58%

51%

58% 56%

51% 51% 55%

58% 56%

60%

57%

2% 4% 3%

11%

6% 7% 10%

8% 6% 7% 6%

9% 5%

8% 5% 5%

7% 9%

5% 7%

5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 10%

8% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Israel Supporter Palestinian Supporter Neither/Don’t Know/Refused

** Trend from joint research by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.

Disengagement

Lebanon

Crisis in

Egypt

Flotilla Incident Talks

Stall

Peace talks

renew

Gaza War

Israel-Hamas Truce

Annapolis

Now, thinking about the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in the Middle East,

please tell me whether, in general, you think America should be... A strong supporter of Israel, a

supporter of Israel, a supporter of the Palestinians ...or... a strong supporter of the Palestinians?

Voters continue to believe the US should side with Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians.

5

24% 19%

32% 27% 25%

69% 73%

63% 64% 69%

March 2008

January 2009

Sept 2010

June 2011

February 2012

Land Relig. Land Relig. Land Relig. Land Relig. Land Relig.

There continues to be a strong sentiment that the conflict is really about ideology and religion.

I am going to read you two statements about this conflict, and after I read them, please tell me which

statement you agree with more... The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is really about

land. Once agreements are reached on how to divide Jerusalem and establishing borders, the two

sides can achieve a peace agreement ...or... The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is about

ideology and religion. The two sides can achieve a peace agreement only when they acknowledge

each other’s right to exist.

6

21% 21%

33%

73% 69%

65%

GOP (29%)

IND (39%)

DEM (32%)

Land Ideology/ Religion Land

Conflict about Land vs. Ideology/Religion: By Party

Ideology/ Religion Land

This viewpoint is shared across party lines.

Ideology/ Religion

June 2011

21 26 59 71 64 33

7

19% 25% 26% 27% 25%

74% 69% 71% 68%

64%

18-34 (17%)

35-44 (28%)

45-54 (14%)

55-64 (21%)

65+ (19%)

Land Ideo/ Rel

And among all age groups.

Land Ideo/ Rel Land

Ideo/ Rel Land

Ideo/ Rel Land

Ideo/ Rel

Conflict about Land vs. Ideology/Religion: By Age

June 2011

28 62 30 61 23 72 26 68 27 61

8

When voters are presented with two different world views...

Please tell me which of the following two descriptions better fits your view of the world...

Is your view of the world that...

...or is your view of the world that...

If different people and cultures spent more time

getting to know one another and communicating

about our problems, we could all get along.

The world is a place where some people’s values

just aren’t the same as ours and we need to

protect ourselves from terrorists and extremists

who would destroy our way of life

9

44% 46% 48% 53% 51% 49% 46% 45% 44% 44%

July 2003

November 2006

March 2008

August 2009

February 2012

Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect

Voters remain pretty evenly divided as to which description better fits their own view.

Please tell me which of the following two descriptions better fits your view of the world... Is your

view of the world that...If different people and cultures spent more time getting to know one

another and communicating about our problems, we could all get along? ...or is your view of the

world that...The world is a place where some people’s values just aren’t the same as ours and we

need to protect ourselves from terrorists and extremists who would destroy our way of life?

10

29%

53%

71% 67%

42%

25%

GOP (29%)

IND (39%)

DEM (32%)

Comm with each

Other

Protect Ourselves

Comm with each

Other

Protect Ourselves

Comm with each

Other

Independents and Democrats hold a different views than GOP’ers.

Protect Ourselves






By Party

11

57% 53%

57%

48% 43%

34%

43% 40%

50% 53%

18-34 (17%)

35-44 (28%)

45-54 (14%)

55-64 (21%)

65+ (19%)

Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect

There are some interesting differences by age.






By Age

12

43%

74%

46%

56%

25%

54%

March 2008

January 2009

February 2012

How much have you seen, read or heard recently regarding the military conflict

between Israel and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip?

A Lot/

Some

Not Much/

Nothing

A Lot/

Some

Not Much/

Nothing

A Lot/

Some

Not Much/

Nothing

Voters don’t recall that much about recent military conflict in the Gaza Strip.

13

Israel is a partner with the U.S. in our fight against terrorism

Israel is our most important ally in the Middle East

The top reason Americans believe the US should support Israel is because they are our most

important ally in the Middle East. Which TWO of the following are the best reasons why the United States SHOULD support Israel?

39%

28%

22%

20%

16%

11%

10%

9%

8%

8%

6%

% Combined Choice

Israel shares our values including the freedom of speech,

religion, press and the right to vote

God gave the land to the Jews who had lived there for

thousands of years

Israel is under threat from Iran, a country that wants to wipe

Israel off the map

Israel is working for peace for both sides

Israeli citizens are vulnerable to terrorist attacks

Israel leads on alternative energy that can reduce U.S.

dependence on foreign oil

Israel is an economic partner of the U.S., helping to create

American jobs

During the Arab Spring it is a country in the Middle East that

we can rely on

Israel uses innovation and technology invent things that help

us in the United States

15

56%

20%

7%

27%

9%

21% 14%

42%

74%

30%

58%

21%

Total Total Total Total* Total* Total**

Warm

Fav:

50+

Warm

Fav:

50+

Cold

Unf:

<50

Warm

Fav:

50+

Cold

Unf:

<50

Warm

Fav:

50+

Cold

Unf:

<50

Cold

Unf:

<50

Cold

Unf:

<50

A majority of Americans view Israel favorably.

First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with

one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,

UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from

zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or

organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.

Israel The

Palestinians

Iran Egypt Syria Turkey

*Asked of Sample A,

N=400 *Asked of Sample A,

N=400

**Asked of

Sample B, N=400

16

Attitudes toward Israel have remained pretty stable.

58% 59% 59% 57%

50%

63%

38%

49%

57%

45%

55% 53%

45%

40% 42%

51% 51%

60% 56%

16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14%

24% 22%

12%

23%

10% 18%

13%

20% 23%

14% 20%

15% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total

Warm

Cold

56%

14%

Warm Cold

Israel







17

While views toward the Palestinians continue to be pretty negative.

31% 33%

41%

31%

23% 26%

14% 15%

22%

14%

22%

14% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16%

26% 20%

38% 36%

28% 27%

43% 42% 42%

49%

38% 44%

33%

53%

38% 37%

41% 45%

48%

39% 42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total

Warm

Cold

20%

42%

The Palestinians


Warm Cold






18

Total

9% 11% 8% 8% 10%

7% 10% 8% 8% 7%

14%

7%

69% 71% 66%

72%

62%

75%

61% 63% 67%

70% 65%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Warm

Cold

Iran is viewed very negatively by American voters.

7%

74%

Warm Cold


Iran






19

42% 36%

7% 2%

20% 14%

42%

73%

Total** Total** Total** Total**

Israeli Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu

Warm/

Fav:

51+

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Among world leaders tested, Netanyahu and Peres perceived positively.

Iranian President

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Israeli President

Shimon Peres

Palestinian PM

Mahmoud Abbas






**Asked of Sample B, N=400

Warm/

Fav:

51+

20

5% 3% 4% 9%

62%

24%

60% 54%

Total* Total** Total* Total*

Hamas

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Cold/

Unfav:

<50

Hamas, Fatah, Hezbollah, and the Muslim Brotherhood are all viewed negatively.

The Muslim

Brotherhood

Fatah Hezbollah






*Asked of Sample A, N=400 **Asked of Sample B, N=400

21

20% 26%

Total

Warm/Favorable: 51+ Cold/Unfavorable: <50

And, voters really aren’t quite sure what to make of the Arab Spring.

Arab Spring






23

60%

55%

49%

41%

24%

9%

Iran’s nuclear program**

The Arab Spring**

A developing China*

The situation with Iran*

Muslim Extremism*

Voters view Iran as a greater threat to the U.S. than the European crisis, China and Arab Spring.

Please tell me whether you think each of the following is a very big threat, a moderate threat, not

much of a threat or no threat at all to the United States.

The economic crisis in Europe**

% Very Big Threat


24

% Very Big Threat

By Party Total

GOP (29%)

IND (39%)

DEM (32%)

Muslim Extremism* 60% 79% 61% 43%

Iran’s nuclear program** 55% 68% 51% 50%

The situation with Iran* 49% 68% 47% 37%

The economic crisis in Europe** 41% 44% 48% 30%

A developing China* 24% 40% 21% 14%

The Arab Spring** 9% 18% 10% 1%

Democrats are a bit more focused on Iran’s nuclear program.

Please tell me whether you think each of the following is a very big threat, a moderate threat, not

much of a threat or no threat at all to the United States.


26

Does Iran’s nuclear program pose a very big threat, a moderate threat, not much of a threat or

no threat at all to each of the following places...

The United States

44%

35%

13% 7%

Total

Very

Big Threat

Not Much

Threat No Threat

Moderate

Threat

While nearly half of voters say that Iran’s nuclear program is a very big threat to the

United States...

27

67%

21%

5% 4%

Total

Fully two-thirds of voters believe it is a very big threat to Israel.



Israel

Very

Big Threat

Not Much

Threat

No Threat

Moderate

Threat

28

There’s also a sense that Iran’s a very big threat to the Iranian people, other Arab countries in the

Middle East, and to a lesser extent, Europe.

45% 39%

34% 34% 39% 42%

12% 14% 15%

6% 6% 7%

Total Total Total

Very

Big

Not

Much None Mod

The Iranian People* Other Arab countries in the

Middle East**

**Asked of Sample A, N=400 *Asked of Sample B, N=400



Europe

Very

Big

Not

Much None Mod

Very

Big

Not

Much None Mod

30

82% 89%

83% 75%

16% 11%

15% 23%

Total GOP (29%)

IND (39%)

DEM (32%)

Fully 82% of Americans support the economic and trade sanctions on Iran to discourage

their nuclear program. Now, as you may know, the United States has imposed strong economic and trade sanctions on Iran to

try to discourage Iran's nuclear program... Generally speaking, do you support or oppose

these sanctions?*

By Party Total

Support Oppose Support Oppose

*Asked of Sample A, N=400

55%

Strongly

67%

Strongly

50%

Strongly

51%

Strongly

Support Oppose Support Oppose

31

74% 81%

90% 86%

81%

22% 17%

10% 13% 17%

18-34 (20%)

35-44 (25%)

45-54 (13%)

55-64 (22%)

65+ (19%)

Support for sanctions also cuts across all age groups.

Now, as you may know, the United States has imposed strong economic and trade sanctions on Iran to

try to discourage Iran's nuclear program... Generally speaking, do you support or oppose

these sanctions?*

By Age

Sup Opp

*Asked of Sample A, N=400

32%

Strong

Sup Opp Sup Opp Sup Opp Sup Opp

55%

Strong

71%

Strong 63%

Strong 60%

Strong

32

32%

20%

30%

46%

67%

80%

68%

54%

Total GOP (29%)

IND (39%)

DEM (32%)

But, there’s really not a strong sense that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran from

developing nuclear capabilities. How likely do you think it is that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran’s development of

nuclear capabilities?**

By Party Total

Likely

Not

Likely


9%

Very

30%

Not

At All 6%

Very

37%

Not

At All

8%

Very

34%

Not

At All 12%

Very

18%

Not

At All

Likely

Not

Likely Likely

Not

Likely Likely

Not

Likely

33

34% 30% 28% 29%

37%

66% 68% 70% 71%

61%

18-34 (15%)

35-44 (30%)

45-54 (15%)

55-64 (20%)

65+ (19%)

And, this sentiment is true across age …

By Age

Likely

Not

Likely


6%

Very

36%

Not

At All

Likely

Not

Likely

10%

Very

21%

Not

At All

Likely

Not

Likely

5%

Very

40%

Not

At All

Likely

Not

Likely

6%

Very

30%

Not

At All

Likely

Not

Likely

14%

Very

29%

Not

At All

How likely do you think it is that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran’s development of


34

31%

68%

Opinion Elites (30%)

And, among opinion elites.

Among Elites

Likely Not Likely


24%

Not At All 5%

Very Likely

How likely do you think it is that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran’s development of


35

79% 78%

21% 19%

Total Total

Now I am going to read you a series of actions that can be taken with regard to Iran if

they do not stop their nuclear program. After I read each one, please tell me whether

you support or oppose that action...

Support

Voters overwhelmingly support talks and expanded sanctions on Iran.

Direct talks with Iran to negotiate

over its nuclear program

Support Oppose Oppose

Expanded economic and

diplomatic sanctions

12%

Strongly

55%

Strongly 49%

Strongly

37

And, which TWO of the following information sources are the most significant in

shaping your views on the Middle East?

60%

35%

31%

21%

19%

15%

4%

4%

3%

A

p

p

TV news

An overwhelming majority of American voters get their information about the Middle East

from TV news.

Newspapers

The Internet

Your own religious beliefs

Radio News

Family and friends

% Combined

Community or political leaders

Schools or universities

Lectures or events

38

And, which type of internet site do you typically use for information about the Middle East?

75%

5%

3%

A

p

p

Social networking sites like You-Tube,

Facebook or Twitter

And, it’s clearly mainstream media over

social networking.

Mainstream media websites like CNN,

MSNBC, Yahoo or Fox News

Other

Total*

*Among N=695, those who TV news, Newspapers, or Internet.

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2012 02-us-poll-charts-1

News & Politics

Transcript of 2012 02-us-poll-charts-1