2011.04.29 GS Market_monitor
Transcript of 2011.04.29 GS Market_monitor
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This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solic itation to buy or sell securities.
18.5%
12.5%11.7%
9.1% 8.9%7.9%
6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5%
3.1%
Energy
Hea
lthcare
Industrials
S&P500
Discre
tionary
S
taples
Utilities
Materials
Telecom
Info
.Tech.
Fin
ancials
6.5%
5.2%4.0% 4.0%
3.0% 2.9% 2.8%2.2% 1.7% 1.5%
0.0%
H
ealthcare
Staples
Utilities
Dis
cretionary
S&P500
Info.
Tech.
Industrials
Materials
Telecom
Energy
Financials
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
4/29/10 7/29/10 10/29/10 1/29/11 4/29/11
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4 /2 9/ 08 1 0/ 29 /0 8 4 /2 9/ 09 1 0/ 29 /0 9 4 /2 9/ 10 1 0/ 29 /1 0 4 /2 9/ 11
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Morningstar US Equity Size & Style Returns3
10-Year Treasury Note Yields2
S&P 500 Trailing 1-Year Index Levels2
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Month-to-Date2 (As of 4/29/2011)
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Year-to-Date2 (As of 4/29/2011)
Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary.
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Value Core Growth Value Core Growth
1.97% 2 .59% 3 .33% 8.80% 12.56% 13.09%Small
8 .3 5% 6 .7 3%Large
(as of 4/ 29/ 11)
1 2. 38 % 1 2. 97 %M id2.45% 3.01% 2.81% 10.01%
M ont h- to- Dat e Y ear- to-D at e
3.26% 3.34% 2.56% 11.13%
April 29, 2011
Index Returns2
(as of 4/29/2011) 1 We ek M TD QTD YTD
DJIA 2.47% 4.13% 4.13% 11.49%S&P 500 1.99% 2.96% 2.96% 9.06%NASDAQ 1.91% 3.37% 3.37% 8.59%
MSCI EAFE (USD) 2.47% 6.02% 6.02% 9.74%
Barclays Aggregate 0.63% 1.27% 1.27% 1.70%
S&P GSCI 0.90% 4.41% 4.41% 16.49%GS A RT Index 0.28% 1.17% 1.17% 2.94%
Bond Rates2 4/29/11 3/31/11 3/31/11 12/31/10
Fed Funds Tar get 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%3-Month Libor 0.27% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%2- Year Tr eas ur y 0.61% 0.83% 0.83% 0.60%10- Year Tr eas ur y 3.29% 3.47% 3.47% 3.30%2-10 slope 2.68% 2.65% 2.65% 2.70%
HY Corp. spread (bps) 482 495 495 561IG Corp. spread (bps) 138 142 142 156EMD spread (bps) 281 277 277 274
High 4.27
Low 2.06
Current 3.31
High 1363.61
Low 1022.58
Current 1363.61
Commodities2 4/29/11 3/31/11 3/31/11 12/31/10
Oil ($/bar rel) $113.93 $106.72 $106.72 $91.38Gold ($/oz) $1,563.70 $1,432.30 $1,432.30 $1,420.78Gasoline ($/gallon) $3.931 $3.619 $3.619 $3.073
Currencies2 4/29/11 3/31/11 3/31/11 12/31/10
Euro ($/) $1.4807 $1.4158 $1.4158 $1.3384Pound ($/) $1.6707 $1.6028 $1.6028 $1.5612Yen (/$) 81.19 83.13 83.13 81.12
Upcoming Economic Releases1
Date Indicator GS & Co. Consensus Previous
C on st ru ct io n S pe nd in g ( Ma r) +0.5% +0.3% - 1.4%
I SM Manuf ac turi ng Index (Apr) 60. 0 59. 5 61. 2
Factory Orders (Apr) +2.4% +1.7% -0.1%Li ght weig ht Mot or Vehic les ( Apr) 1 3. 0M 13. 0M 13. 1M
Domestic Motor Vehicles (Apr) 9.8M 9.8M 9.9M
Wednesday
(5/4/11)I SM N onmanuf ac turi ng I ndex (Apr ) 57. 5 58. 0 57. 3
Non fa rm Product iv ity (Q1 Pre liminary) +1.0% +1.0% +2.6%
U ni t L ab or C os ts ( Q1 P re li mi na ry ) +0.8% +0.8% - 0.6%
Unemployment Rate (Apr) 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
No nf arm Payr oll s (Apr) +175, 00 0 + 180, 000 +2 16, 000
Average Hourly Earnings (Apr) +0.1% +0.2% Flat
Forecast
Tuesday
(5/3/11)
Thursday
(5/5/11)
Friday
(5/6/11)
Monday
(5/2/11)
Economic & Market news GS & Co.1
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell by 0.18% in February,
a decline smaller than expected. However, due to downwardrevisions in previous months, the 3.3% y-o-y decline is still in line
with the median forecast. The index is based on 3-month
averages so the declines of 0.36% in December and 0.25% in
January coupled with the most recent release, indicate that the
rate of decline continues to moderate.Real GDP increased by 1.8% (q-o-q annualized) in Q1, close to
consensus forecasts. However, the composition of the increase
was more favorable than expected with consumer spending
increasing by 2.7%, compared with the consensus estimate of
2%. Other components of GDP were broadly in line with
expectations. Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 429k in the week ending April
23, so we are now above the average levels for February and
March. Although we believe technical factors like the Easter
Holiday could be adding some noise to the figure, we also think
the rise could indicate an actual increase in filing activity.
As widely expected, theFOMC Meeting indicated unanimity in
deciding to end QE2 at the end of June. However, the committee
reiterated its expectation that current economic conditions could
warrant a low federal funds rate for an extended period of time.
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This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solic itation to buy or sell securities. 2
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
April 29, 2011
The first two paragraphs of the disclosures below do not apply to the information sourced to footnote 1.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.
This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of the GIR Department or other
departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation toprovide any updates or changes.
The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations. This presentation makes no implied or expressrecommendations concerning the manner in which any clients account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the clients investment objectives.
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The economic and market forecasts presented herein have been generated by Goldman Sachs for informational purposes as of the date of this presentation. They are based on proprietary models and there can be no assurancethat the forecasts will be achieved.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives,restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may
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Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may, without Goldman Sachs Asset Managements prior written consent, be ( i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in
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and completeness of all information available from public sources.
This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
1 Source: Goldman, Sachs & Co. (as of 4/25/2011 4/29/2011)2 Source: Bloomberg (as of 4/29/2011)
3 Source: Morningstar (as of 4/29/2011)
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