20110217 grontmij
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Transcript of 20110217 grontmij
Transition of built environment:challenge for the next decades
Houten, 17 februari 2011
Prof. Jan Rotma
Twitter.com/Jan_Rotmans
Built Environment
built environment responsible for 41% of our energy use
50-80% CO2-reduction is required the coming decades
requires a transition of the built environment
Transition
fundamental change of structure, culture, practices
structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructureculture: collective set of values, paradigmspractices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling
fundamental shift in thinking & acting at the systems level
means to achieve a sustainable society
we build adequately, but
we don’t build adequate things
Current regime in construction sector structure
fragmented, traditional chain
supply driven, little diversity
culture
mono-culture, conservative
low innovative capability
practice
‘hit and run’, short-term return on investments
traditional tendering
Transition of Construction sector
transition of construction sector is necessary
from to
supply demand
product service
economic societal
20 years
Further development phasePredevelopment phase
20 years
In which phase is the transition of construction?
”
Widespread application
of the new paradigm
Tipp
ing
poin
tBattle between the old and new paradigm
Regieraad Bouw PSIBouw
Time
bui
ldin
g up
a s
usta
inab
le c
onst
ruct
ion
sect
or
Sector is here
Consolidation
Current status of construction sector
sector is innovating and reorientating
much innovation at the project level
still innovation lags compared with other sectors
innovation on too small scale with few parties
Transition = Power shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale level
niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that might
take over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defend
its existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime
transition = regime-shift = power shift
Sustainability creeps into the genes
(DNA) of the built environment
and will become the driving forces
Visionary Challenge for Sector
build as service to society (societal demand driven)
orientation towards spatial environment instead of building
allowing end-user to collect or make his own product
sustainable in terms of energy and materials use
flexible, conceptual building is the standard
Built Environment in 2030
energy producing
blue
green
healthy
organic
using roofs and front walls
Stichting Urgenda
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
drijvende wijk/stad
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Floating City
water recreation
ecology:wetlands
technology: floating foundation
energy: decentral heat/cold storage
mobility: floating highway, water taxi
living / working units
Transition Plan
built environment energy neutral in 2025
all existing houses, buildings and schools energy neutral
inspiration
transition from coal to gas from 1955 to 1965
entire Dutch housing stock was provided with
gas connection for heating and cooking
Built Environment
energy neutral through:
1. shell of building as energy efficient as possiblegood isolation and and efficient installations
2. producing sustainable energysolar-PV, solar water heaters, wind, heat
3. surface area developmentenergy, water, fine dust particles / NOx
Costs / Benefits
total costs till 2025
140 billion Euro [73 billion energy savings][67 billion sustainable energy]
total benefits till 2025
pay back time, avoided CO2-emissions employment (50.000 jobs per year) increase in value of real estate
> 140 billion
Costs / Benefits
• investment for home owner: 20.000 Europayback time is 10 years 6 years with WOZ-value red.
• investment for housing corporations: 15.000 Europayback time is 12 years < 10 jaar bij WOZ- korting
• owners of buildings:payback time is 10 years 6 years with government supp.
• energy companies:payback time is 10 years at 3000 Euro per MW wind energy
Sustainable = Value Creation
making housing stock sustainable is beneficial to:
- economy [employment]
- construction sector
- value of real estate
- environment
- society
- citizens and housing corporations
Thus…..
technically it is possible in 15 years
financially it is feasible
societally it is beneficial
how can we get this organized?
Transition Approach: district by district
• start with districts in frontrunner municipalities
• mobilising key parties: municipalities, corporations, energy companies, investors
• three tracks: energy savings, sustainable energy, surfacedevelopment
• in every frontrunner municipality coalition with investor
• smart strategy of seducing, rewarding, punishing
bottom-up & top-down
making built environment sustainable requires a transition
transition requires change in structure, culture and practices
the Netherlands needs a mega-project to drive this transition
making the built environment energy neutral by 2025
technically possible, economically profitable, financially feasible
requires smart transition strategy with facilitating leadership
Conclusions