2011 Triple Crown Prospects 1374028190

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2011 Triple Crown PROSPECTSYour tool for handicapping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont StakesPreviews of 40 of the most likely contenders Steve Haskins comments and ratings for top horsesFull pedigrees and Dosage prolesComplete BRIS Past Performances (PPs) Average winning distancesRunners records at the Triple Crown tracks Evaluations by Jason Shan-dler of Triple Crown TalkStatistical review of 60+ other possible Triple Crown entrants22011 TRI PLE CROWN PROSPECTSSee who the pedigree experts predict to win.Check out the Pedigree Proles from The Blood-Horse. Coming soon!Table of ContentsINTRODUCTION ....................................................3GLOSSARY ..........................................................3ALBERGATTI ........................................................5ALTERNATION ......................................................6ANTHONYS CROSS ...............................................7ASTROLOGY ........................................................8AWESOME PATRIOT ...............................................9BEAMER ........................................................... 10BOWMANS CAUSEWAY ........................................ 11BRETHREN ........................................................ 12CALEBS POSSE .................................................. 13CASPERS TOUCH................................................ 14CLUBHOUSE RIDE ............................................... 15CROSSBOW ....................................................... 16DIALED IN ......................................................... 17ELITE ALEX ........................................................ 18GOURMET DINNER .............................................. 19JAYCITO ........................................................... 20J PS GUSTO ...................................................... 21JUSTIN PHILLIP .................................................. 22MACHEN ........................................................... 23MAJESTIC HARBOR ............................................. 24MANICERO ........................................................ 25MUCHO MACHO MAN ........................................... 26NACHO BUSINESS ............................................... 27PREMIER PEGASUS ............................................. 28RIVETING REASON .............................................. 29ROGUE ROMANCE ............................................... 30RUNFLATOUT ..................................................... 31SANTIVA ........................................................... 32SHACKLEFORD ................................................... 33SILVER MEDALLION ............................................. 34SOLDAT ............................................................ 35STAY THIRSTY .................................................... 36SWAY AWAY ....................................................... 37SWEET DUCKY ................................................... 38THE FACTOR ...................................................... 39TOBYS CORNER ................................................. 40TO HONOR AND SERVE ......................................... 41UNCLE MO ......................................................... 42WILKINSON ....................................................... 43WILLCOX INN ..................................................... 44BRISNET.COM (Advertisement) ................................ 45OTHER CONTENDERS ........................................... 46KENTUCKY DERBY HISTORY .................................. 49PREAKNESS STAKES HISTORY ............................... 50BELMONT STAKES HISTORY .................................. 51CHURCHILL DOWNS TRACK INFORMATION ................ 52PIMLICO TRACK INFORMATION .............................. 53BELMONT TRACK INFORMATION ............................ 54Steve HASKIN is an award-winning Turf writer renowned for his Kentucky Derby commentary. He has been a senior correspondent at The Blood-Horse since 1998. When he decided earlier in the year to list the top 60 or 70 3-year-olds in alphabetical order, as sort of a guide leading up to his Derby Dozen and Derby Trail columns featured in the magazine and on BloodHorse.com, he felt assigning a rating to each horse would be more interesting. He used a scale of 1-10, based on several factors, including performance, pedi-gree, and how impressive the horses races looked visually.HORSES I NDEXED BY HASKI N S NUMERI CAL RATI NGUNCLE MO ................... 9TO HONOR AND SERVE ... 8BRETHREN ................7.5DIALED IN .................7.5ASTROLOGY ................ 7CASPERS TOUCH.......... 7ELITE ALEX .................. 7JAYCITO ..................... 7MACHEN ..................... 7MUCHO MACHO MAN ..... 7ROGUE ROMANCE ......... 7SANTIVA ..................... 7SOLDAT ...................... 7STAY THIRSTY .............. 7ANTHONYS CROSS .....6.5J PS GUSTO ..............6.5MAJESTIC HARBOR .....6.5NACHO BUSINESS .......6.5SHACKLEFORD ...........6.5TOBYS CORNER .........6.5ALTERNATION .............. 6AWESOME PATRIOT ....... 6BOWMANS CAUSEWAY .. 6GOURMET DINNER ........ 6MANICERO .................. 6SWEET DUCKY ............. 6WILKINSON ................. 6ALBERGATTI ..............5.5CLUBHOUSE RIDE .......5.5RIVETING REASON ......5.5RUNFLATOUT .............5.5SILVER MEDALLION .....5.5THE FACTOR ..............5.5CROSSBOW ................. 5JUSTIN PHILLIP ............ 5PREMIER PEGASUS ....... 5WILLCOX INN ............... 5BEAMER ...................4.5CALEBS POSSE ..........4.5SWAY AWAY ...............4.5Jason SHANDLER has been a staff writer at The Blood-Horse since 2007, but hes been a sportswriter for 11 years. Before moving to Lexington, he worked at the Norristown Times-Herald outside Philadelphia. He is featured weekly on the BloodHorse.com video That Handi-capping Show and is the author of the blogs Triple Crown Talk and Breeders Cup Chat. Shandlers work also has been featured on ESPN.com and NTRA.com. HORSES I NDEXED BY SHANDLER S OPI NI ONBest of the BestUNCLE MOIntriguing ContenderASTROLOGYAWESOME PATRIOTBOWMANS CAUSEWAYBRETHRENCASPERS TOUCHDIALED INELITE ALEXJAYCITOJUSTIN PHILLIPSANTIVASHACKLEFORDSOLDATSTAY THIRSTYTOBYS CORNERTO HONOR AND SERVEWILKINSONModest ThreatALBERGATTIALTERNATIONANTHONYS CROSSCROSSBOWMACHENMUCHO MACHO MANNACHO BUSINESSPREMIER PEGASUSROGUE ROMANCESWAY AWAYSWEET DUCKYTHE FACTORQuestionableBEAMERCALEBS POSSECLUBHOUSE RIDEGOURMET DINNERJ PS GUSTOMANICERORIVETING REASONMAJESTIC HARBORRUNFLATOUTSILVER MEDALLIONWILLCOX INNCOVER PHOTO BY CHAD B. HARMON32011 TRI PLE CROWN PROSPECTSSee who the pedigree experts predict to win.Check out the Pedigree Proles from The Blood-Horse. Coming soon!Introduction GlossarySelecting the Kentucky Derby winner from a field of 18 or 20 is hard enough; figuring out which horses are likely to make it to the Triple Crown trail is even more daunting. Even Thoroughbred enthu-siasts who carefully follow juvenile racing will find that springtime introduces a slew of new potential runners. Blood-Horse Publications Triple Crown Prospects special report is an early-season guide to the most promising sophomores that are likely to have an impact in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes.The backbone of this report is an introduction to 40 top 3-year-olds that appear to be pointed toward one of the American classic races. Steve Haskin of Derby Dozen and Hangin with Haskin fame re-views each contenders chances and assigns his own 1 to 10 ratingwhere 10 is Steves prediction that the horse not only will run but also be in contention down the stretch.Jason Shandler, author of Triple Crown Talkalso known for his no-nonsense persona on That Handicapping Showserves as a counterpoint to Steve. Jason provides his own rating and commentary on each sophomore runner.Profile pages include a wealth of data. Most of the statistics are familiar, but a short review might be helpful. The statistical box in-cludes graded earnings, which become important as many colts and fillies vie for limited spots in the Derby starting gates. The Experi-mental Free Handicap is explained in detail in the glossary in right column on this page. The pedigree box includes official bloodlines information and foal data provided by The Jockey Club Information Systems equineline.com reports service, while a BRISnet.com past-performances chart (PPs) summarizes the subject horses race ca-reer to date.Other contenders for the Triple Crown are included in shorter sta-tistical overviews starting on page 46. Shown in this section are race records and best level won (GSW is a graded stakes win, GSP is graded stakes-placed, SW is a stakes win, and SP is stakes-placed), the aver-age winning distance (AWD) and the longest distance the horse has won, and the Dosage profile, which is also explained in the glossary. One-page reviews of past winners of the Derby, Preakness, and Bel-mont provide some perspective, and brief histories of the host tracksChurchill Downs, Pimlico, and Belmont Parkround out the Triple Crown preview.Dosage: A technique for classifying Thoroughbred pedigrees by type based on aptitudinal characteristics inherited from se-lected sires, called chefs-de-race. The degree of inheritance attributed to each of these chefs was essentially constant in all pedigrees, the absolute value (or Dosage figure) varying from sire to sire. Chefs, chosen on the basis of their observable pre-potence for type, are assigned to one or two of five aptitudinal groups (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and Professional) covering the spectrum (from left to right as you read the dosage profile) of speed to endurance. The assignments are made to reflect the traits that these stallions predictably and consistently transmit to their offspring. Only one winner of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 (Strike the Gold), and only three winners of the Belmont Stakes over the same time frame (Damascus, Con-quistador Cielo, Creme Fraiche