2011: The Year of a Palestinian State ?Limmud Conference

The Obama Administration Policy

Arab States: Normalization

Israel: Settlement

Freeze

Palestinians: Greater Security

Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years

The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high ".

Israel-US Relations

Shared Interests

Strong lobby

Shared Values

US priority: Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran. IL-PL Conflict Linkage (Resolution to

Conflict revolves around 67 borders)

Jews don’t speak in once voice on Israel. Liberal Jews identify less. AIPAC

vs. J-Street

Obama less emotionally attached to Israel

“this is no longer just about helping a special ally resolve a debilitating problem. With 200,000 American troops committed to two wars in the greater Middle East and the U.S. president leading a major international effort to block Iran’s nuclear program, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become a U.S. strategic imperative” (Martin Indyk)

Peace is a central aspects of US National Security

Abbas: Between Rock and Hard Place

Between US pressure + Arab street + Hamas in Gaza

Abbas Problematic Legitimacy

(wont run again)

Geographical Division + Constitutional Crisis

Hamas: Growing Intl Recognition

The Search for a Strategy

Dissolving PA & Demanding 1 state

Unilateral Declaration

..we’re considering declaring a state unilaterally (2/9)

..maybe we will demand one binational state" (10/8)

maybe we should focus on a state of all its citizens " (11/09)

we are determined to achieve a state unilaterally firm in our " (11/09)

If negotiations fail the chances of one of these options rise

Alternatives to Negotiations

Developing “credible alternatives to the traditional two-state solution, such as a one-state, a bi-national state”

Fayyad's State Building

Popular Resistance

International Legitimacy via UN

Any two-state solution based on the PA is stillborn. Instead, we should look to a "three-state" approach, where Gaza is returned to Egyptian control and the West Bank in some configuration reverts to Jordanian sovereignty. (John Bolton)

Time

Rele

van

cy

PLO Accepts 242

Crisis of Palestinian Representation

Bi-National State

International Arena: Erosion of 2 State Solution

A state ‘not at any cost’

Split between Gaza & WB

Difficult of Separating Jews & Arabs Inability to Settle Core Issues

Return of Jordanian Option

Confederation

"If Israeli and Palestinian leaders fail to sign an agreement on Palestinian statehood in the coming weeks or months, we'll have to prepare ourselves for the next stage (Sari Nusseibeh)

“The 2SS is an obsolete paradigm. Linkage or retrocession of the West Bank & Gaza to some form of Egyptian and Jordanian security control has a greater chance of stabilizing the situation

Rise of Alternative Paradigms 2SS

1 State Threat

2SS Still Agreed Principle for SolutionHowever Status Quo Likely to Further Erode its

Relevancy

Palestinian declaration of statehood

“If the freeze is not renewed, then yes, maybe this is going to happen…All international players are now in agreement that the Palestinians are ready for statehood at any point in the near future…(UN Special Coordinator for Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry)

International Arena & PL Unilateralism

Dec 2010: Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil & Bolivia recognize PL State

Dec 2010: Euro states (UK, Norway, France, Spain) upgrade diplomatic status of PL representatives. Opposed to PL declaration ‘at this time’

The Relevancy of the Kosovo

Model?

US Committed to Bilateral Negotiations. Opposed to Unilateral Acts

Oct 2010: “Everyone understands that a solution must be negotiated. Everything else is a mirage. They know that. We know that.”

Militarized PL State

Foreign forces using PL

Terrorism and Rocket fire

IL Leaves: Security ThreatMilitary Logic: Stay

Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics

Demographic Burden

Erosion of 2SS

Logic of Implosion

IL Stays: Political ThreatPolitical Logic: Leave

What is the main threat from the Palestinians?

How to end control over the Palestinians?

Permanent Agreement

Palestinian State First (agreed)

PSPB (Return to Roadmap)

First Agreement, then PL State

End of Conflict, Finality of Claims

2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA

Annapolis and Oslo The Road Map

IL Govt. Weaknes

s

Package Agreement: Structural Issues

No ZOPA

PL Division

PSA

Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security

Shaky Center Right Coalition

Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy

Increasing Division between Gaza & WB

Failure for All lead to worse than Nothing

Decoupling Statehood from End of Conflict

PSPB Approach: Structural Problems

No ZOPAPalestinian Split

Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner

Growing Split Between Gaza & WB

How Will the Agreement be Ratified?

PSPB

No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification

An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse

How to end control over the Palestinians?

Permanent Agreement

Palestinian State First (agreed)

No Agreement: Upgrading the PA

PSPB (Return to Roadmap)

First Agreement, then PL State

End of Conflict, Finality of Claims

2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA

Systematic Buildup; PL State;

Permanent Agreement

Palestinian State First (de-facto)

Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis: Fayyad might be a partner

How to Advance the Creation of a State?

Gestures Consolidating the

Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without

Strengthening the PA

Strengthen PA

Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s

powers & authorities of within framework

of existing agreements.

Upgrade PASystematically

transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by

virtue of the Interim Agreement

Power to Establish Consulates Abroad,

Issuing Currency

Dayton and Blair’s Actions for

Restoring the Palestinian Police

Remove Checkpoints, Ease

Restrictions, Promote

Investment

Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA

The Status of the Interim Agreement

No physical border between Israel and West Bank

PL state is an Israeli card (IL opposed to symbolic sovereign)

Security Fence

PL State is an Israeli interest (IL not opposed to symbolic sovereignty

Moving towards a PSA (3-5 years)

Difficult to achieve PSA in near future

Israeli Mindset regarding PL Unilateralism

Binary: Either negotiations or unilateralism

Palestinian Unilateralism

Dangerous: Should be Opposed

Certain unilateral moves can go hand in hand with negotiations – towards strengthening 2 State

reality

Palestinian declaration of statehood poses both challenges and

opportunities for Israel

Upgrading of PA potentially beneficial to Israel

To Lead or be Led? That is the Question

With a Plan, Israel Leads

Without a Plan Israel gets Led

If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy

If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’