2011 Census Results Making Sense of the Numbers Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of...
-
Upload
cordelia-burns -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
1
Transcript of 2011 Census Results Making Sense of the Numbers Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of...
2011 Census ResultsMaking Sense of the Numbers
Godfrey St. BernardSir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies
The University of the West IndiesSt. Augustine
Trinidad and Tobago
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
SALISES ForumInstitute of International Relations Conference Room
The University of the West IndiesSt. Augustine
March 5th 2013
Discussion Points• Why do a Population Census?
• Census as a statistical exercise
– Statistics as a science for determining the magnitude of unknown counts, other descriptive measures and patterns of relationship
– Never Accurate but focus is on precision
– Methodological rigour and invoking critical sensibilities
• Discussing emergent population trends– Population Growth– Sex Composition– Ethnicity– Religious Affiliation
Census Year
Duration of the intercensal period
(in years)
Trinidad & Tobago
Population
Change % Change Exponential Growth Rate
1851 x 82978 x x x
1861 10.0 99848 16870 20.3 1.9
1871 10.0 126692 26844 26.9 2.4
1881 10.0 171179 44487 35.1 3.0
1891 10.0 218381 47202 27.6 2.4
1901 10.0 273899 55518 25.4 2.3
1911 9.9 333552 59653 21.8 2.0
1921 10.1 365913 32361 9.7 0.9
1931 10.0 412783 46870 12.8 1.2
1946 15.0 557970 145187 35.2 2.0
1960 14.0 827957 269987 48.4 2.8
1970 10.0 931071 103114 12.5 1.2
1980 10.1 1079791 148720 16.0 1.5
1990 10.0 1213733 133942 12.4 1.2
2000 10.1 1262366 48633 4.0 0.4
2011 10.6 1328019 65653 5.2 0.5
Assumptions8 June2000
8 June 2001
8 June 2005
8 June 2010
8 June 2015
8 June 2020
8 June 2025
High 1262366 1267866 1285718 1312259 1347174 1379331 1398947
Constant 1262366 1264613 1266147 1260585 1247294 1219573 1174665
Low 1262366 1264613 1266707 1258745 1237531 1198894 1143457
Medium 1262366 1264610 1268439 1268642 1265430 1252654 1228675
Medium-High
1262366 1267866 1284652 1300288 1310888 1309589 1294347
Medium-Medium
1262366 1267866 1284303 1298648 1306920 1302196 1282384
Medium-Low
1262366 1264613 1266468 1259377 1243051 1211067 1161638
Projected Population Characteristics: Trinidad and Tobago, Selected Census Years
Ethnic GroupPopulation
Size 2011
Percentage Distribution
2011Proportion
<15Proportion
65+Aging Index
Trinidad and Tobago 20.6 9 44
African 452536 34.2 19.6 10.2 52
Caucasian 7832 0.6 12 21 175
Chinese 4003 0.3 12.1 21 174
East Indian 468524 35.4 16.5 8.5 52
Indigenous 1394 0.1 14.3 14.6 102
Mixed 301866 22.8 29.1 7.1 24
Portuguese 837 0.1 4.9 32.5 663
Syrian/Lebanese 1029 0.1 12.6 17.4 73
Other 2280 0.2 17.6 12.8 73
Not Stated 82246 6.2 20.3 8 39
Sex Ratio
2011 2000 1990 1980
Trinidad & Tobago
All Ages 100.7 100.6 99.8 99.9
0 - 4 103.4 102.7 101.8 103.1
5 - 9 103.2 102.6 101.8 102.2
10 - 14 104.5 102.1 102.5 100.4
15 - 19 102.1 101.6 103.7 100.9
20 - 24 101.0 103.2 100.1 101.3
25 - 29 101.7 102.7 100.4 100.6
30 - 34 104.3 99.9 99.4 102.6
35 - 39 102.6 100.1 100.5 99.8
40 - 44 101.9 101.3 102.5 99.6
45 - 49 102.6 103.4 98.8 95.5
50 - 54 101.8 104.5 98.2 97.2
55 - 59 100.6 99.8 95.3 105.0
60 - 64 102.2 96.3 96.0 105.4
65 - 69 93.6 91.7 93.0 88.5
70 - 74 88.4 90.4 93.9 86.3
75 - 79 81.0 87.6 84.8 74.4
80 + 67.2 71.6 62.9 58.7
Country/Region
Population Size2000
Population Size
2011
Intercensal Growth
2000-2010
Percent 65+ 2011
Census
Trinidad and Tobago 1262366 1328019 5.2 9
City of Port of Spain 49031 37074 -24.4 14.8
City of San Fernando 55419 48838 -11.9 12.2
Borough of Arima 32278 33606 4.1 9.8
Borough of Chaguanas 67433 83516 23.9 6.8
Borough of Point Fortin 19056 20235 6.2 8.9
Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo 162779 178410 9.6 7.3
Diego Martin 105720 102957 -2.6 12.3
Mayaro/Rio Claro 32143 35650 10.9 7.4
Penal/Debe 83609 89392 6.9 8.1
Princes Town 91947 102375 11.3 7.9
San Juan/Laventille 157295 157258 0.0 9.4
Sangre Grande 65680 75766 15.4 7.7
Siparia 81917 86949 6.1 9.2
Tunapuna/Piarco 203975 215119 5.5 8.7
Tobago 54084 60874 12.6 9.3
Year Number of Live Births
1940 16,535
1955 21,616
1950 23,722
1955 30,216
1960 32,858
Number of Live Births Trinidad and TobagoPre-Independence Era
Year Number of Live Births
1962 34,1071965 31,9531970 25,1511975 25,6731980 29,8691985 33,7191990 23,9601995 19,2582000 18,1602005 18,0902008 19,888
Number of Live Births Trinidad and TobagoPre-Independence Era
Year Total Fertility Rate1959-1961 5.11969-1971 3.82008 1.6
Total Fertility Rates – Trinidad and Tobago1959-1961, 1969-1971 and 2008
Females 15-49 years – Percentage Childless by Five-Year Age Group and Years of Schooling
Age Group All Females Under 7 years 7-12 years 12 or more years
15-49 years 47.6 31.0 44.0 53.5
15-19 years 93.5 93.3 93.2 94.9
20-24 years 70.4 47.8 69.3 81.4
25-29 years 46.0 28.6 37.7 61.6
30-34 years 29.3 26.0 28.8 32.5
35-39 years 20.4 18.8 17.1 27.2
40-44 years 15.2 11.0 15.6 19.6
45-49 years 12.8 4.9 9.6 22.6
Females 15-49 years – Percentage Childless by Five-Year Age Group and Socio-Economic Status
Age Group
All Females
QuintileI
Quintile II
Quintile III
Quintile IV
QuintileV
15-49 yrs 47.6 41.7 40.5 43.2 45.0 51.2
15-19 yrs 93.5 92.2 94.1 95.5 91.8 94.1
20-24 yrs 70.4 58.2 65.5 72.0 79.5 80.0
25-29 yrs 46.0 35.6 38.3 41.0 48.4 67.9
30-34 yrs 29.3 23.2 24.7 22.2 33.3 43.7
35-39 yrs 20.4 6.7 13.0 22.5 26.5 31.5
40-44 yrs 15.2 5.1 12.7 13.4 15.4 29.0
45-49 yrs 12.8 4.3 3.5 10.0 10.4 21.4
Females 15-49 years – Percentage Ever Having at Least 5 Live Born Children by Five-Year Age Group and Years of Schooling
Age Group All Females Under 7 years 7-12 years 12 or more years
15-49 years 3.1 6.6 3.0 2.4
15-19 years 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.7
20-24 years 0.7 - 1.3 0.4
25-29 years 1.0 3.1 0.8 0.4
30-34 years 2.2 4.0 2.6 0.6
35-39 years 5.5 11.6 3.6 4.3
40-44 years 7.6 10.4 6.2 8.0
45-49 years 8.8 11.7 7.2 5.1
Females 15-49 years – Percentage Ever Having at least 5 Live Born Children by Five-Year Age Group and Socio-Economic
Status
Age Group
All Females
QuintileI
Quintile II
Quintile III
Quintile IV
QuintileV
15-49 yrs 3.1 7.3 3.8 2.9 1.8 1.9
15-19 yrs 1.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.6 2.0
20-24 yrs 0.7 - 2.0 - - 1.7
25-29 yrs 1.0 - 1.4 0.9 2.4 -
30-34 yrs 2.2 5.2 2.2 3.7 - -
35-39 yrs 5.5 18.1 2.0 4.2 0.9 2.7
40-44 yrs 7.6 19.0 9.3 5.0 2.4 4.7
45-49 yrs 8.8 22.9 11.8 7.0 3.8 2.1
THANK YOU