2011 BCE Morgan Stanley Presentation · 2018. 10. 23. · updated in BCE Inc.’s 2011 First...
Transcript of 2011 BCE Morgan Stanley Presentation · 2018. 10. 23. · updated in BCE Inc.’s 2011 First...
Morgan Stanley 11th Annual Technology Media & Telecoms Conference November 16 - 18, 2011
Siim Vanaselja Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer
2
Safe harbour notice Certain statements made in the attached presentation, including, but not limited to, statements relating to our 2011 financial guidance (including revenues, EBITDA, capital intensity, Adjusted EPS and free cash flow), annualized cost savings expected to result from workforce reductions, capital spending allocations in the fourth quarter of 2011, our objectives, plans and strategic priorities and positions, and other statements that are not historical facts, are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements, by their very nature, are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties and are based on several assumptions which give rise to the possibility that actual results or events could differ materially from our expectations expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. As a result, we cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statement will materialize and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. For additional information on such assumptions and risks, please consult, in addition to page 20 of the attached presentation, BCE Inc.’s 2010 Annual MD&A dated March 10, 2011, as updated in BCE Inc.’s 2011 First Quarter MD&A dated May 11, 2011, in BCE Inc.’s Second Quarter MD&A dated August 3, 2011 and in BCE Inc.’s Third Quarter MD&A dated November 2, 2011, and BCE Inc.’s press release dated November 3, 2011 announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2011, all filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and with the SEC and which are also available on BCE Inc.’s website. The forward-looking statements contained in the attached presentation describe our expectations at November 16, 2011 and, accordingly, are subject to change after such date. Except as may be required by Canadian securities laws, we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained in the attached presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
3
Canada’s largest communications company
• 22 million customer connections – Largest local exchange carrier in Canada – Largest Enterprise service provider – Second largest wireless operator – Largest Internet service provider
– Largest digital TV provider
• Revenues ~$19 billion • Enterprise value ~$50 billion
• Bell Mobility and Virgin Mobile
• Bell Fibe Internet
• Bell Satellite and Fibe TV
• Bell Home Phone
• Bell Business Markets
• Bell Media
4
Bell’s evolving revenue mix
80% of revenues now driven by growth segments
~30% Wireless
~11% Satellite/ Fibe TV
~27% Wireline
Internet/Data
~12% Media
~20% Wireline
Voice
Operating revenue mix — 2011E Pro forma
~80%
Business overview
6
Focus maintained on key value drivers
Our goal To be recognized by customers as Canada’s leading communications
company
2 Leverage wireline momentum
5 Improve customer service
3 Invest in broadband networks and services
4 Achieve a competitive cost structure
5 Strategic Imperatives 1 Accelerate wireless
7
Executing on Strategic Imperatives in 2011
• Wireless LTE network launch in 2011
• Fibre build-out supports IPTV and broadband Internet • Fibe TV footprint at 2M households by YE2011
• Capturing over 1/3 of incumbent postpaid net adds • Maintaining wireless network leadership with broadest
HSPA+ network in Canada
TV
Strategic investments are transforming Bell and driving future operating performance
• CTV acquisition completed April 1 • Launched Bell Media
8
Bell Media advances Bell’s strategic imperatives
• $3.2B acquisition completed April 1, 2011
• 100% ownership of Canada’s #1 media company CTV
• Hedges against increasing programming costs
• Accelerates 4+ screen platform distribution
• TSN/RDS rate re-negotiations progressing well
• Olympics broadcast partnership for 2012, 2014 and 2016 Games
• Secured rights for FIFA World Cup Soccer from 2015-2022
9
1. Accelerate wireless
Wireless network, device & content leadership
Network build started
Bell Mobile TV enhanced
Expanding network footprint
Driving postpaid market share improvement and customer satisfaction with the best network, hardware and content
• HSPA+ deployed to 96% of Canadian population
– Dual-cell 42 Mbps available in two-thirds of HSPA+ footprint
• ~2,000 public Wi-Fi hotspot locations throughout Canada (McDonalds, Starbucks, Indigo)
• Access to expanded live and on-demand content, including CTV, TSN, RDS, BNN and MTV
• More than 2M mobile TV streams YTD Q3’11
– Up 43% y/y
• Launched in September in Toronto area
• Coverage to additional markets in 2011 and 2012
• 2011 build-out accommodated within capital budget
Best choice in devices with the most distribution
• Launching portfolio of LTE handsets in November
– HTC Raider 4G LTE – LG Optimus LTE
• iPhone 4S
• Expanding distribution in Western Canada
10
1. Accelerate wireless
Significant market share gain
18% 50%
32%
2007
34%
38% 28%
YTD Q3’11
Dramatic growth for Bell Wireless over past four years
Postpaid net additions market share (incumbents)
11
• Postpaid gross adds up 8.6% y/y
• Smartphones represent 43% of total postpaid base, up from 26% in Q3’10
• Blended ARPU up 2.5% on significantly higher smartphone mix y/y
• Wireless data growth of 35% y/y
• Cost of retention (COR) moving closer in-line with Canadian industry average
• COA reflects competitive pricing and higher y/y postpaid and smartphone mix
Metrics YTD Q3’11 Y/Y Postpaid gross additions Total gross additions
1,014k 1,424k
8.6% (1.5%)
Postpaid net additions Total net additions
302k 128k
(12.1%) (56.3%)
Postpaid ARPU Blended ARPU
$63.57 $53.23
0.1% 2.5%
Postpaid churn rate Blended churn rate
1.5% 2.0%
(0.2 pts) (0.1 pts)
COR (% of service revenue) 9.5% (1.1 pts) COA $387 (14.5%)
1. Accelerate wireless
Solid wireless operating metrics
Healthy postpaid results despite intense competition
42%
Smartphone penetration
Q3'10 Q3'11
% of EOP postpaid subscribers
26% 43%
+17 pts
12
2. Leverage wireline momentum
Wireline voice erosion improves y/y
• Annualized NAS erosion rate lower y/y – Service bundles with Fibe Internet and Fibe TV
helping retention and winbacks – However, aggressive competitive offers and
wireless substitution increasing
• Business NAS losses significantly reduced – Fewer business line disconnections – Gain in wholesale customers
• Improvement in voice revenue decline – 16% fewer NAS line losses y/y – Home Phone ARPU helped by price increases – Significant improvement in LD revenue erosion
driven by higher global LD minutes
Effectively managing Wireline voice erosion
NAS
68k 95k
Residential
Voice revenue(1)
y/y decline
(1) Voice revenue is comprised of local and access and long distance revenues
Q3'10 Q3'11 Q3'10 Q3'11
321k 270k
80k 27k
YTD Q3 net
losses
Annualized erosion
rate
Business Total
8.1% 7.7%
3.6% 1.9%
6.2% 5.1%
YTD Q3'10 YTD Q3'11
6.9%
4.1%
Q3'10 Q3'11
241k 243k
13
2. Leverage wireline momentum
Bell’s changing residential revenue mix
TV, Internet and content are driving revenues
~30%
~70%
TV: ~30% Internet: ~15% Bell Media: ~25%
Local voice: ~25% LD: ~5%
2.1M Internet subs 2.1M Bell TV subs
25 million CTV viewers Launched Fibe TV
14
2. Leverage wireline momentum
Bell’s Fibe TV opportunity
Fibe TV enhances Bell’s opportunity to be a TV leader in all markets
Rural Suburban Urban
Bell Satellite TV (2M subs)
Bell Fibe TV
Bell TV portfolio
15
2. Leverage wireline momentum
Bell Business Markets
Bell is Canada’s leading technology company for business
ICT and service innovation
Contact Centre
Cloud Security
Wireless Solutions
Video Services
Data Centre and Managed
Infrastructure
• Economy impacting overall business results – Continuing slow and uncertain pace of job growth – Data product sales soft, reflecting deferred customer
spending – However, better IP connectivity and ICT growth y/y
• Connectivity revenue continues to decrease, but decline is slowing
– Cost reductions offsetting revenue shortfalls
• Maintaining overall market share even with increasing competition in SMB sector
• Increasing focus on ICT and service innovation to expand share of wallet
• Well positioned to benefit from an improving economy
16
3. Invest in broadband networks and services
Investing to drive future operational performance
Over $2.5B of capital spending for Bell in 2011 to support customer growth and improve competitive position
Wireless HSPA+ and LTE networks
Data hosting centres
Broadband fibre network
Fibe TV rollout and Nimiq 6 launch
• Wireless CI of ~11%-12% in 2011
• Growth in data demand
• Network coverage and quality
• Wireline CI of ~18% in 2011
• Fibre expansion/upgrades to support IPTV and growth in Internet usage
• Investment in hosting and cloud computing
17
Capital intensity Source: Company guidance and First Call analyst estimates
• Bell’s CI reflects investment in strategic priorities to support growth and improve competitive position
• CI in line with other major global carriers
2010 2011E
14%-15% 16.0% ~16% 15.8% 14.9% 16.3% 16.2%
2010 2011E 2010 2011E
Majority of capital spending focused on 5 strategic imperatives
3. Invest in broadband networks and services Capital intensity consistent with other N.A. carriers
18
Wireline cost reductions(1) in Q3 • Total savings of ~$80M
• Lower labour and support group costs, and reduced marketing/sales expenses
• Residential call centre calls down 4% y/y
• Capital tax savings and settlement of commodity tax matters
• Lower y/y U.S. dollar hedge rates
Workforce reduction • ~1,200 management positions
• Departures completed by end of October
• Reductions achieved through vacancies, attrition and operational efficiencies
• Consistent with service improvement imperative, front-line functions unaffected
• Severance charge of ~$94M taken in P&L in Q3’11
– Cash payments reflected in Q4’11 and Q1’12
~$240M YTD
Over $900M of cost reductions since 2008
(1) Wireline labour, G&A and marketing and sales costs
~$100M in annualized cost savings
4. Achieve a competitive cost structure
Significant cost savings continue…
19
5. Improve customer service
…while improving service
Improved service in the field • >90% completion rate on Same Day
Next Day service
• Internet Full Install rate at 85%
• Convenient appointment windows 7 days a week
Enhanced customer experience • One call for all services
• Fast-track to live help
• Care centres open on Sundays
• Interactive touch screens in stores
• Enhanced online experience
9 million fewer call centre calls
since 2008
Financial performance &
Capital structure
21
Financial review
YTD Q3’11 Y/Y May 12
Guidance November 3
Guidance
Revenues $12,557M 8.2% 9% to 11% No change
EBITDA Margin
$4,764M 37.9%
8.1% (0.1 pts)
8% to 10%
No change
Capital Intensity 14.4% (0.3 pts) ~16% No change
Adjusted EPS(1) $2.51 14.1% $2.95 to $3.05 $3.10 to $3.15
Free Cash Flow(2) $1,697M ($271M) ~$2.2B to $2.3B No change
• On track to achieve revenue and EBITDA targets
– Solid competitive position across all product lines and markets
• Capex reflects increased investment for broadband and customer service
• Adjusted EPS guidance increased – Higher-than-expected favourable tax
provision adjustments in Q3’11
• Improving Free Cash Flow trajectory in H2’11
– Lower cash taxes offset by higher capital spending in Q4, but still within CI of ~16%
(1) EPS before severance, acquisition and other costs and net gains (losses) on investments (2) Free cash flow before common share dividends and including Bell Aliant's dividends
22
Best-in-class financial performance among telco peers
Wireline EBITDA growth – FY 2010
Source: Company reports (1) TELUS EBITDA has been adjusted to exclude restructuring costs for comparability (2) Bell EBITDA excluding Bell Media
5.9%
Wireline EBITDA growth – YTD’11
2.7%
-4.6% -5.9%
Total EBITDA growth – FY 2010
2.4% 2.4%
-3.7%
-6.1%
-1.7%
Total EBITDA growth – YTD’11
3.4% 0.2% 3.1%
-3.1%
-4.9%
1.0% 2.5%
(1) (1)
(1) (1) (2)
23
Strong capital markets positioning
• Strong investment grade credit ratings with stable outlooks • Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA maintained below 2.0x
Substantial liquidity
Growing sustainable free cash flow
Increasing total shareholder returns
Strong credit profile
• Issued $345M of BCE preferred shares in July’11 • Accessed $3B of low-cost debt between Nov’10 and
May’11 at an average rate of 4.1% • Modest debt repayments before 2014
• Healthy free cash flow supports dividend growth and accelerating broadband investment to drive future growth
• Projected YE2011 cash balance of ~$800M
• Dividend payout ratio of 65%-75% of Adjusted EPS • Use of surplus cash balances shareholder returns with
maintenance of strong credit profile
Business performance supports capital markets strategy
24
Increasing returns to shareholders
$1.46
Annualized common dividend per share
$1.54 $1.62
Q4’08 Q1’09 Q3’10
$1.83
Q3’09
$1.74
Q1’10
$1.97
42%
Q1’11
$2.07
Q2’11
Delivering on dividend growth model strategy
Share buyback program (Dec. 2008 to Dec. 2010)
Amount ($) ~$1.5B
Shares repurchased and cancelled 56.2M
Average price per share repurchased $26.43
• 6 increases since Q4’08 totalling 42%
• Payout ratio maintained below mid-point of 65%-75% policy range
• Attractive dividend yield with high FCF coverage ratio of ~1.5%
• ~$1.5B in buybacks since Dec. 2008
25
Total shareholder returns Dec. 12, 2008 – Nov. 7, 2011
73.5%
28.4%
3.5%
46.2%
25.6%
59.1%
Total shareholder return of ~122%, including 6 dividend increases, since December 2008
Strategic imperatives paying dividends
122.1%
26
Strategically well positioned in all segments going into 2012
• Executing on 5 Strategic Imperatives
• Maintaining wireless competitiveness and postpaid momentum – Healthy postpaid subscriber growth with accelerating smartphone mix – Blended ARPU up 2.5% YTD – Step-up in wireless EBITDA trajectory in 2H’11 – LTE wireless network launched on Sept.14th
• Wireline continues to perform well – Good residential operating results in a tough competitive environment – Fibe TV gaining traction – Economy impacting overall business results – Cost reductions driving wireline margin expansion
• Bell Media driving significant EBITDA and cash flow growth
• Broadband investments positioning us well for next generation of growth
• Successfully executing on our capital markets strategy
Summary