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Transcript of 2011 Aug Gdb Eaivfinal
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7/30/2019 2011 Aug Gdb Eaivfinal
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GOVERNMENT DEVELOPMENT BANK FOR PUERTO RICO
Economic Activity IndexFor the month of August 2011
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During the month of March 2011, the GDB-Economic Activity Index was revised
according to yearly benchmark revision of trailing 18 months payroll employment data asrequired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thisannual revision resulted in the recalculation of
the GDB-Economic Activity Index to reflectrevision of payroll employment data.
Disclaimer
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Total payroll employment during the month of August 2011 was 905,700, a year-over- year (YOY)decline of 0.3%.
Private sector employment continues its improving trend with total private sector employmentregistering a YOY decline of 0.7%.
Electric power consumption during the month of August 2011 totaled 1,582.0 million kWh.Consumption was severely affected by a power outage set off by Tropical Storm Irene.
Cement sales totaled 1.320 million bags during the month of August 2011, registering a month-over-month decline of 7.3% due to higher rainfall levels that have deterred construction activity. On a
YOY basis, cement sales rose by 2.1% for the eight-month period ending in August 2011.
Gasoline consumption* during the month of August 2011 was 85.5 million gallons.
Commentary for the month of August 2011
GDB-EAI for the month of August was 124.9, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% compared to July 2011.
Employment in the service sector grew 0.4% in August 2011, adding 1,300 jobs compared to August 2010.
* Estimated monthly gasoline consumption is derived from the Treasury Departments monthly gasoline excise taxcollections. These monthly collections tend to have irregular patterns as major gasoline importers havesignificant fluctuations in their inventories and purchases. As a result, the estimate used by GDB does notnecessarily reflect actual monthly consumption by individuals.
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139.5138.1
136.4135.7
134.7134.1 133.7
133.0 133.1
132.3 132.0 131.3130.2
129.5 129.7130.3 130.3
129.2
127.5 127.6 127.9128.9 128.4
127.1126.6 127.1
127.6 127.5 126.9 126.5125.8
124.9
-4.2%
-6.6%-6.2%
-4.9%
-3.9%
-2.6%-2.7%
-3.2%-2.8%
-1.9% -1.6%
-2.1%
-2.6%
-2.1%
-1.3%
-2.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
J a n - 0
9
F e
b - 0
9
M a r -
0 9
A p r -
0 9
M a y - 0
9
J u n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A u g - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N o v - 0
9
D e c - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
F e
b - 1
0
M a r -
1 0
A p r -
1 0
M a y - 1
0
J u n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A u g - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N o v - 1
0
D e c - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
F e
b - 1
1
M a r -
1 1
A p r -
1 1
M a y - 1
1
J u n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A u g - 1
1
GDB Economic Activity IndexFor the month of August 2011
GDB Economic Activity Index
Data used for GDB-EAI is adjusted for seasonality and volatility.
Economic Activity Index GDB Year-over-year change of IAE (%)
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-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
GDB Economic Activity Index (EAI): 98% correlation with GNP
Economic Activity Index - GDB Year-over-year change in EAI (%)
FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
Economic Activity Index is reflecting a stabilizedeconomy with clear signs of improving trends inkey economic sectors
FY 2012
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Year-over-year change in total payroll employment hasreached the most favorable level since July 2007
0.6%
-2.7%
-0.8% -0.9% -0.9%
-7.8%
-4.9%
-2.9%
-3.2%
-2.0%
-2.8%
-0.3%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
J a n - 0
6
F
e b
- 0 6
M
a r - 0 6
A p r - 0 6
M
a y - 0
6
J
u n - 0
6
J u
l - 0 6
A
u g - 0
6
S e p - 0
6
O c t - 0 6
N
o v - 0
6
D
e c - 0
6
J a n - 0
7
F
e b
- 0 7
M
a r - 0 7
A p r - 0 7
M
a y - 0
7
J
u n - 0
7
J u
l - 0 7
A
u g - 0
7
S e p - 0
7
O c t - 0 7
N
o v - 0
7
D
e c - 0
7
J a n - 0
8
F
e b
- 0 8
M
a r - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
M
a y - 0
8
J
u n - 0
8
J u
l - 0 8
A
u g - 0
8
S e p - 0
8
O c t - 0 8
N
o v - 0
8
D
e c - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
F
e b
- 0 9
M
a r - 0 9
A p r - 0 9
M
a y - 0
9
J
u n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A
u g - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N
o v - 0
9
D
e c - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
F
e b
- 1 0
M
a r - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
M
a y - 1
0
J
u n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A
u g - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N
o v - 1
0
D
e c - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
F
e b
- 1 1
M
a r - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
M
a y - 1
1
J
u n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A
u g - 1
1
Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment
(Year-over-year change)
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Private sector employment continues to reflect amarked improvement
1.1%
-2.7%
-0.3%
-2.9%-2.3%
-6.5%
-3.6%
-1.0%
-2.6%
-0.9%-1.0%
-0.7%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
J a n - 0
6
F
e b
- 0 6
M
a r - 0 6
A p r - 0 6
M
a y - 0
6
J
u n - 0
6
J u
l - 0 6
A
u g - 0
6
S e p - 0
6
O c t - 0 6
N
o v - 0
6
D
e c - 0
6
J a n - 0
7
F
e b
- 0 7
M
a r - 0 7
A p r - 0 7
M
a y - 0
7
J
u n - 0
7
J u
l - 0 7
A
u g - 0
7
S e p - 0
7
O c t - 0 7
N
o v - 0
7
D
e c - 0
7
J a n - 0
8
F
e b
- 0 8
M
a r - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
M
a y - 0
8
J
u n - 0
8
J u
l - 0 8
A
u g - 0
8
S e p - 0
8
O c t - 0 8
N
o v - 0
8
D
e c - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
F
e b
- 0 9
M
a r - 0 9
A p r - 0 9
M
a y - 0
9
J
u n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A
u g - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N
o v - 0
9
D
e c - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
F
e b
- 1 0
M
a r - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
M
a y - 1
0
J
u n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A
u g - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N
o v - 1
0
D
e c - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
F
e b
- 1 1
M
a r - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
M
a y - 1
1
J
u n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A
u g - 1
1
Private Sector Employment
(Year-over-year change)
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Total payroll employment totaled 905,700, aYOY decline of 0.3%.
Employment in service sector continues itsimproving trend. When compared to August2010, employment in the service sectorincreased by 0.4% or 1,300 jobs.
Private sector employment decreased by 0.7%on a YOY basis, the most favorable level sinceMay 2011.
GDB Economic Activity Index Components
Sources: Dept. of Labor, GDB
Cement sales reported during the month of August were 1.320 million bags; a year-over-year decline of 13.4%.
Cement sales have been negatively affected byabove-normal rainfall levels that deterredconstruction activity throughout the island.
For the eight-month period ending August 2011,cement sales increased by over 2.1% on a year-over-year basis.
* The Economic Activity Index and its indicators are subject to monthly revisions. P: Preliminary, R: Revised
Total Payroll Employment(Thousands of jobs)
Cement Sales(Cement Bags sold, in thousands)
997.51,003.6
1,044.0982.8
947.0936.3
963.0943.6
908.2922.9
912.4905.7
J u
l - 0 8
A u g - 0
8
S e p - 0
8
O c t - 0 8
N o v - 0
8
D e c - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
F e
b - 0
9
M a r -
0 9
A p r -
0 9
M a y - 0
9
J u n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A u g - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N o v - 0
9
D e c - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
F e
b - 1
0
M a r -
1 0
A p r -
1 0
M a y - 1
0
J u n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A u g - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N o v - 1
0
D e c - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
F e
b - 1
1
M a r -
1 1
A p r -
1 1
M a y - 1
1
J u n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A u g - 1
1
2,798.6
2,191.32,627.4
1,884.9
2,254.4
1,832.5
2,050.71,838.9
1,112.4
1,812.91,580.81,455.8
1,516.01,404.2
1,901.9
1,320.0
J u
l - 0 8
A u g - 0
8
S e p - 0
8
O c t - 0 8
N o v - 0
8
D e c - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
F e
b - 0
9
M a r -
0 9
A p r -
0 9
M a y - 0
9
J u n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A u g - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N o v - 0
9
D e c - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
F e
b - 1
0
M a r -
1 0
A p r -
1 0
M a y - 1
0
J u n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A u g - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N o v - 1
0
D e c - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
F e
b - 1
1
M a r -
1 1
A p r -
1 1
M a y - 1
1
J u n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A u g - 1
1
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89.5
105.8
79.5
116.5
85.6
93.6
89.6
103.1
87.0
103.8
74.5
98.7
77.0
99.4
81.7
88.9
79.5
102.0
85.5
J u
l - 0 8
A u g - 0
8
S e p - 0
8
O c t - 0 8
N o v - 0
8
D e c - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
F e
b - 0
9
M a r -
0 9
A p r -
0 9
M a y - 0
9
J u n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A u g - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N o v - 0
9
D e c - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
F e
b - 1
0
M a r -
1 0
A p r -
1 0
M a y - 1
0
J u n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A u g - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N o v - 1
0
D e c - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
F e
b - 1
1
M a r -
1 1
A p r -
1 1
M a y - 1
1
J u n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A u g - 1
1
GDB Economic Activity Index Components
Sources: DTOP, Treasury, PREPA.
Gasoline Consumption(Millions of gallons)
Gasoline consumption during the month of
August 2011 totaled 85.5 million gallons.
Estimated monthly gasoline consumption isderived from the Treasury Departmentsmonthly gasoline excise tax collections. Thesemonthly collections tend to have irregularpatterns as major gasoline importers havesignificant fluctuations in their inventoriesand purchases. As a result, the estimate usedby GDB does not necessarily reflect actualmonthly consumption by individuals.
Electric power consumption registered 1,582million kWh during the month of August 2011.
Electric power consumption during the monthof August was severely affected by a poweroutage set off by Tropical Storm Irene.
August 2011 electric power consumption was2.6% above FY 2011 average electric powerconsumption.
Electric Power Consumption(Millions of kWh)
1,694.9
1,547.3
1,412.9
1,364.7
1,445.7
1,560.4
1,705.1
1,480.0
1,364.4
1,621.0
1,681.6
1,667.81,478.7
1,472.5
1,380.9
1,655.7
1,582.0
J u
l - 0 8
A u
g - 0
8
S e
p - 0
8
O c t - 0 8
N o
v - 0
8
D e
c - 0
8
J a
n - 0
9
F e b
- 0 9
M a r -
0 9
A p r -
0 9
M a
y - 0
9
J u
n - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
A u
g - 0
9
S e
p - 0
9
O c t - 0 9
N o
v - 0
9
D e
c - 0
9
J a
n - 1
0
F e b
- 1 0
M a r -
1 0
A p r -
1 0
M a
y - 1
0
J u
n - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
A u
g - 1
0
S e
p - 1
0
O c t - 1 0
N o
v - 1
0
D e
c - 1
0
J a
n - 1
1
F e b
- 1 1
M a r -
1 1
A p r -
1 1
M a
y - 1
1
J u
n - 1
1
J u
l - 1 1
A u
g - 1
1
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Description of theGDB-Economic Activity Index
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Description of the GDB-EconomicActivity Index (GDB-EAI)
The GDB-EAI is a coincident index for the economy of Puerto Rico. It is a valuabletool that summarizes the behavior of four major monthly economic indicators.
This index was developed following the methodology similar to that used by TheConference Board in their coincident index. This methodology follows a standardprocedure to adjust the data for seasonality and volatility factors.
The GDB-EAI levelsshow a high degreeof correlation (R of 0.98) with respect toReal GNP levels
High Correlation with Puerto Rico Real GNP
Source: GBD
y = 432.25x - 4,124.27R = 0.98
32,000
37,000
42,000
47,000
52,000
57,000
62,000
67,000
80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
$ M i l l i o n
( 2 0 0 8
)
Index (January 1980 = 100)
Real GNP as function of GDB-EAI
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GDB Economic Activity Index HighlightsAdvantages of the GDB-EAI:
Readily available
Highly correlated to Puerto Ricos real GNP Reliable tool to monitor actual trend of Puerto Rico economy
The GDB-EAI is made up of 4 indicators:
Total Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey/ Thousand of employees) Total Electric Power Consumption (Millions of KWH) Cement Sales (Millions of bags) Gas Consumption (Millions of gallons)
GDB-EAI Highlights and Composition
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Disclaimer
The GDB Economic Activity Index and its indicatorsare subject to monthly revisions. While theinformation comprising the GDB Economic ActivityIndex has been obtained from sources GDB believes
to be reliable, GDB is not responsible for any errorsor omissions, or for the results obtained from theuse of this information.
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