2011 12 23 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
Transcript of 2011 12 23 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Await fresh signal.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Looking to sell.USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.AUD/USD Exited at 1.0050.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await new setup.EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8425 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050 0.8525EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT23 December, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Short-covering around the key 1.3000 level.
EUR/USD is unwinding mildly from oversold conditions, driven by short-
covering as the market adjusts to a new bearish paradigm, following the
break beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.
Our cycle analysis successfully signalled increased volatility within the
first two weeks of December across risk proxies, including the equity
and commodity markets. Expect some respite ahead of the holiday
period.
Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to
resume EUR/USDs multi-month downtrend into 1.2870 (2011 major low).
Near-term resistance can be found at 1.3215 and potentially even 1.3550
(02 Dec high). Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived.
Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-
month highs, (a move worth over 10% from the summer 2010 lows).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will
continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic
oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf -
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Range bound for now in a thin Christmas market.
GBP/USD continues to trade in a tight hourly range just under the
1.5770/80 double top. The thin Chritmas markets may see some sharp
moves, however, they are unlikley to be sustained. Near-term a returnback to 1.5409 is favoured.
Medium-term GBP/USD may experience a degree of support given the
negative structure that we are also seeing in EUR/GBP. Thus a
continuation to the downside in EUR/GBP may be associated with the
years range being maintained in GBP/USD.
We are now approaching 7.000% again in 10 year Italian sovereign
yields, which should support the arguements that we have detailed
above.
Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272
and then potentially trend-line support at 1.5110.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Range bound trade likely t o persist near-term.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).
USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), as pricecontinues to hold within a multi-day trading range (see hourly chartbelow).
Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) would help trigger a third price
retracement back to pre-intervention levels and potentially even a new
post world war record low beneath 75.35.
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY
buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and
be the first to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year
contracting pattern.
This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward
a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle
inflection points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO
Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC /Squawk Box &Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6w -
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A return to the 200 day moving average now favoured.
USD/CHF is likely to be affected by movement in EUR/CHF over
coming days and particularly into next year. As EUR/CHF nears the
1.2000 level again the probability of intervention by the SNB will beheightened. Thus the near-term fate of USD/CHF may be determined by
EUR/CHF.
Movement in USD/CHF is also tied to the direction of selected core
Euro-Zone yields and in particular the yield on Italian sovereign debt.
Overnight we have seen a move back up to the 7.000% region in the 10
year maturity. Next year is likely to see a return to focusing on rollover
funding issues for the Italian economy. This has the potential to exert
downside pressure on USD/CHF.
10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.375% and
6.952% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap
agreement. Thus, Spanish debt is experiencing a stronger positive
effect, in contrast to the Italian market. These yields were trading at
5.328% and 6.760% respectively yesterday.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Looking to sell.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425.
USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which
coincided with a short-term DeMark exhaustion signal.
We prefer to wait for a strong directional confirmation higher before
initiating a buy trade setup.
A sustained break under 1.0220 now suggests further downside into
1.0000.
Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25
Nov swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rates multi-
month triangle pattern.
In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still
needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the
upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of
a major Elliott wave cycle (see top chart insert).
EUR/CAD has breached the base of an important multi-month distribution
pattern. A sustained break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th
Sept low/61.8% Fib),
signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would provide
substantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Strong unwinding from oversold conditions.
AUD/USD is unwinding strongly from oversold conditions, which also
coincided with an intraday DeMark buy signal (see lower chart).
Although this recovery is sharp, it is likely to be short-lived as signaled by
the DeMark signal. The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further
compound downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push
back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie continues to weaken sharply, against the New
Zealand dollar. Near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the
200-day MA and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week
horizon.
The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the
Japanese yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year
distribution pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at
72.00 which would signal further unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at 1.0050.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Approaches the key level near 123.00.
GBP/JPY appears to be forming an exhaustion pattern in the hourly
timeframe. This warns of a degree of resistance close to 123.00, ahead
of a further swing lower. However, if a sustained break can be held over
123.00 then a return to 127.32 will become more likely.
Longer-term it is anticipated that a much larger recovery will develop
with scope for a return to 163.09 and then potentially on to 192.65.
However, signs of basing are still not evident, with the bias still to the
downside in the near-term.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Continues to find support close to the 101.00 region.
EUR/JPY is maintaining its hold over the 101.00 level after basing at
101.05 recently.
The negative effects of the breakdown in EUR/USD remain a potentiallarge factor for this pair going forward, which warns of a re-test of
100.76 and then possibly lower.
However, the structure present since 100.76 is suggestive of a further
swing to re-test 111.60 over the medium-term. Thus, while trade is
maintained above 101.05, a further leg higher is favoured.
This clash between structure and event risk in the Euro-Zone keeps us
on the side lines for now.
Sustained under 100.76 will warn of a much larger continuation to the
downside.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Lower high sought near 0.8425.
EUR/GBP has found initial support after bouncing from daily channel
support near the 0.8300 region. Scope is seen for a minor continuation
of the recovery higher. However, hourly structure remains bearish with
a lower high sought versus 0.8613 for a fresh swing to re-test 0.8303.
If a sustained break under 0.8303 can be realized then an extension
back to the 0.8068 0.8142 region would become viable. This view is
assisted by the recent push under 1.3146 in EUR/USD, which may act
to make EUR cross shorts easier to maintain.
Rising yields in the core Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets is a
continued concern and one that may destabilise the FX markets going
forward. Within this environment Sterling may well be judged the best of
a bad bunch and to a degree be seen as a short-term safe haven,
further adding to the potential for downside pressure ahead.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8425, Objs: 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050, Stop: 0.8525
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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Hourly structure remains bearish.
EUR/CHF is developing a structure in the hourly timeframe which is
currently suggestive of a sizeable extension lower. If a break can be
realised under 1.2170 then stops under 1.2123/30 will become
vulnerable. If these are triggered, there may be sufficient momentum to
target the large cluster of stops that are expected under the 1.2000
region.
The Italian 10 year sovereign yield remains elevated, with a re-test of
the 7.000% level anticipated. A large tranche of rollover funding is
expected in the new year and growth is also likely to contract in Italy.
Thus, there is plenty of scope for the Swiss Franc to be sought once
again as a safe haven. The low yield available on Swiss Franc deposits
is unlikely to act as an impediment to it being sought as a safe haven.
As mentioned above, an initial breakout from the recent range has the
potential to trigger clustered stops which may add to downside
momentum. A failure to hold over the 1.2000 level will almost certainly
see a return to the larger downtrend.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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Gold re-testing its 200-day average.
Gold is temporarily re-testing its 200-day average, which was recently
broken for the first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month
triangle pattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts). Downside pressure remains heavy from inter-market weakness across
related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets. Moreover, there
is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close
beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).
A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor/see
top chart insert).
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1705, Objs: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1705
GOLD
Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf -
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Weak bounce retesting $30.0000.
Silvers weak recovery from oversold conditions is retesting key support at
$30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a test of the
previous swing low at $26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following
the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally
produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough
time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165
(61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain
silvers long-term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for
the eventual resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which
has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over
the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between
gold and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
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distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]