2011 12 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/3/2019 2011 12 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel SwitzerlandTel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 1 1.3280 1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1.3280

GBP/USD Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.

USD/CHF Buy strategy removed. Possibly sell higher.

USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.

AUD/USD SHORT 3 1.0050 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380 (Entered 13/12/2011) 1.0210

GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY Buy limit 3 101.05 102.05/105.00/107.68 100.05

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8510 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142 0.8615

EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.2480 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973 1.2580

GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705

SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT15 December, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entrypoint for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report ispublished, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.


2/15

2

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 15 December, 2011

www.migbank.com

EUR/USD breaks 1.3000 (Psychological level). Second objective met, while still maintaining a risk-free trade.

EUR/USD bears have continued to push lower and have now broken

beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.

Our cycle analysis has successfully signalled increased volatility within the

first two weeks of December across risk proxies , including the equity and

commodity markets.

The recent close beneath 1.3146 re-establishes the larger downtrend from

April. Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to

target 1.2870 (2011 major low).

Meanwhile, resistance can be found at 1.3550 (02 Dec high), then 1.3610

and 1.3730. Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived. Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-month

highs, (a move worth over 10% f rom the summer 2010 lows).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows is strengthening once again and will

continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6 -12 months.

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 1: 1.3280, Objs: 1.2870, Stop: 1.3280

EUR/ USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (1.4060)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED BREAKOUTS

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000)

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

9 KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)13

USD INDEX

200-DMA(75.88)

DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

11 MONTHHIGH

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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Break over trend-line off 1.5770 sought before attempting longs.

GBP/USD has managed to break out of its prior sequence of lower lows and

higher highs, forming an hourly falling channel. This may mark the final

phase of short-term weakness from the 1.5780 lower high. However, abreak over the hourly channel resistance is sought before attempting longs.

Demand for sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in selected core

Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that Italian 10 year

yields are trading close to 7.00%. Daily structure is also suggestive of a

return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher yields may see

Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This reasoning would likely

help to keep cable within its year long range.

Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272 andthen potentially trend-line support at 1.5110.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

4


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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level) .

USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level) . There is an ever

growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre-

intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war recordlow beneath 75.35 (PINL).

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

points to trigger into December this year, offering a sustained move above

our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

Webinar: USD/JPYs Long -Term Structural ChangeMedia Reports: CNBC / Squawk Box & Bloomberg


Awaiting renewed buy trade setup above 80.00.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

USD/JPY

QUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PI R I)

POSTG7

MOVE (I)HIGH

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL A HEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

PIR III

MONTHLYDEMARK

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNANTICIPATES

BREAKOUT(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf


5/15

5


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Encounters resistance close to our first target at 0.9555.

Long strategy to buy at 0.9410 removed. Look to sell higher.

USD/CHF has met resistance close to our initial target in our long strategy

to buy at 0.9410. We are thus removing this strategy as this may completethe rise from 0.9176. We view the push under 0.9430 as potentially

breaking down the short-term bullish structure. However, while above

0.9342, there remains scope for a further rise back towards 0.9548 initially.

Given that the region of the initial target has been tested and with yields

continuing to rise in some core Euro-Zone sovereign markets, the trade

location is deemed as poor. It is anticipated that a return to 7.000% in

Italian 10 year yields is imminent. This may once again pressure USD/CHF

to the downside. There is thus potentially a greater opportunity to sell athigher levels.

Referencing Spanish and Italian government bonds back to their respective

levels prior to the six party central bank agreement, we note that most of the

positive after effects have worn off, with yields trading at 5.698% and

6.824% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the agreement. (These yields

were trading at 5.699% and 6.685% respectively at the same time

yesterday.)


Buy strategy removed. Possibly looking to sell higher.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

6


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Bulls extend rebound above 1.0200.

USD/CAD is maintaining its sharp bullish rebound above 1.0200. We are

watching for further sustained price activity to open a buy trade setup.

A directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still needed to unlock the

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rates ending triangle pattern, whi ch was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.

Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9870 and 0.9726 (31 st Aug low).

EUR/CAD is unwinding mildly ahead of the base of an important multi-

month distribution pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19 th Sept low/61.8%

Fib), signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would providesubstantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.

CHF/CAD , which serves as a proxy for risk appetite, remains weak

beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the uptrend

since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.8% Fib retrace). A

break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01 st March low) and

help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.


Awaiting new buy trade setup.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD & CHF/CAD chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENSLARGER

RECOVERY

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA0.9876

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50% (1.3570)

61.8% (1.3379)

200-DMA(1.3876)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

50% (1.1488)

61.8% (1.0893)


7/15

7


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Sharp setbacks have broken through parity.

First objective met, while maintaining a risk-free trade.

AUD/USD has resumed its sharp setbacks beneath its 200-day MA which is

currently holding at 1.0412. This key level is likely to encourage further

downside scope over the multi-day-week horizon. The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.

The Aussie dollar pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,

while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch

for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further

unwinding of global risk appetite.


SHORT 2: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0050.

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD & AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD (Weekly)

38.2% (0.9144)

50% (0.8546)

61.8% (0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARK SELL

SIGNALS

200-DMA1.0405

REVERSINGINTO

200-DMA

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(82.37)

13

38.2% (76.70)

61.8% (68.47)

50% (72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OF

BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION


8/15

8


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Channels lower in a possible corrective structure.

GBP/JPY has been largely contained within a falling hourly channel for the

majority of December. This structure is seen as being part of a corrective

phase with an eventual return to strength anticipated, potentially close to the

120.00 region.

However, the recovery seen from the 116.84 low appears corrective in

nature, suggesting scope for a return to 119.38 and then potentially 116.84.

A minor break has taken place under the support of the hourly channel,

reaching 120.30. This may now mark a short-term higher low for a fresh

swing to the upside targeting both 122.64 and 122.23, before a potential

lower high in the medium-term timeframe may develop. This would then

return focus back to the structure mentioned in the second bullet point.


Sell strategy removed. Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

9


www.migbank.com

Support anticipated close to 100.76.

EUR/JPY saw an extension lower in recent trade following the break under

1.3146 in EUR/USD, particularly in light of the recent static nature of

USD/JPY.

We now anticipate a degree of support close to the 100.76 level, from where

a recovery may take place

As mentioned in prior reports, the medium-term recovery that we have

already witnessed from 100.76 to 111.60 is viewed as the initial leg higher in

a larger recovery structure.

Even if a lower low were to be printed in the medium-term timeframe, an

initial recovery from the 100.76 region is anticipated. With this in mind we

look to attempt longs just ahead of the key 100.76 level.

Sustained under this level will warn of a much larger continuation to the

downside.


Buy limit 3 at 101.05, Objs: 102.05/105.00/107.68, Stop: 100.05EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY


10/15

10


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Retrace back towards old trend-line support sought.

EUR/GBP continues to witness short-term weakness. Although a move to

test daily falling channel support near 0.8330 may develop, we prefer to wait

for higher levels to sell. We await a re-test of the old trend-line support as

resistance ahead of possible short positioning.

Also noted is that 1.3146 has now been broken in EUR/USD, weakening the

longer-term outlook there. This may assist a short EUR/GBP bias going

forward.

An initial target for the current downswing in the daily timeframe is on the

support of the previously mentioned falling channel, currently at 0.8330.

As mentioned in prior reports, the recent six party central bank coordination

is in fact a warning sign and a clear weakness, suggesting scope for a creditcontractionary phase. We continue to expect a continuation of rising yields

in the Euro-Zone and it is within this environment that we see the potential

for Sterling to be perceived as a safe haven.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8510, Objs: 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142, Stop: 0.8615EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP



11/15

11


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Messy sideways trade continues.

EUR/CHF is currently witnessing a flurry of price activity and is approaching

our filter level at 1.2226 (see below). It thus appears that the possibility of a

break over the recent high at 1.2474 is receding. However, we will maintain

our sell limit strategy at 1.2480 for now, as this represents a decent trade

location during thin Christmas markets. However, we look to see if a break

under 1.2226 can be achieved.

1.2226 will be used as a filter. Under 1.2226, we will swap our current sell

limit strategy to a sell stop strategy at 1.2130, with objectives at

1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 and a stop at 1.2230.

We reference the Italian 10 year sovereign yield on a daily basis in our

USD/CHF commentary. A return to 7.000% and higher is building a recipe

for disaster and, should it take place, may well instigate a period in which

the Swiss Franc is sought as a safe haven irrespective of little to no yield

pick-up. A parallel can be made with the negative yield that was available

on short dated US paper during the last crisis. Sometimes return of capital

is more important then return on capital.

The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will

defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,

which if triggered, could herald a return towards the 1.0075 level.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

12


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Gold breaks its 200-day average for first time in 3 years!

First objective met, while still maintaining a risk-free trade.

Golds has broken through its 200-day average for the first time in 3 years,

after extending its slide from a multi-month triangle pattern breakout.

Downside pressure is also accelerating from inter-market weakness across

related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets.

Moreover, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we

confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).

A number of bargain hunting trend -followers will be watching this

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channel floor).

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)


SHORT 2: 1705, Obj: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1750

GOLD

Gold weekly and daily charts, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMABROKEN

FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OFGOLDS OVERBOUGHT

CONDITIONS

$1800

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530

UPSIDE: 1760 / 1800

GOLD KEY LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf


13/15

13


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Key support broken at $30.0000.

First objective met, while still maintaining a risk-free trade.

Silver has broken through its key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close

below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long -

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.


SHORT 2: 34.1300, Obj: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

SILVER

Spot Silver daily & weekly charts, with Gold/Silver ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2% (32.3135)

50% (26.9150)

61.8%(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK SELL

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.8254)


14/15

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert beforemaking any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 NeuchtelTel. +41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2011 12 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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Transcript of 2011 12 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report