2011 12 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
Transcript of 2011 12 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Await New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade setup.AUD/USD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Missed sell at 123.00. Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8700 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285 0.8835EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.2480 1.2380/1.12226/1.1973 1.2580GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT8 December, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Holding pattern favours a resumption back into 1.3146.
EUR/USD is continuing to trade within a short-term holding pattern, which is
unwinding from last weeks sharp recovery (as six central banks, reduced
their USD funding costs to ease the debt crisis). Our cycle analysis also
suggests increased volatility within the first two weeks of December.
The recovery is still expected to be limited into 1.3610, then 1.3730 and
perhaps even 1.3850-90. Probability also favours a bearish reversal at these
levels for a resumption back into 1.3146 (04th
Oct swing low).
A sustained close beneath 1.3146 will re-establish the larger downtrend
from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major
low).
Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets
its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs
(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain
strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA(1.4080)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND2 YEARS
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
(1.4000)
1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK
BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.80)
DEMARKBUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
9 MONTHHIGH
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf -
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Rises to re-test the 1.5726 level.
GBP/USD saw a minor surge higher during afternoon trade yesterday. This
followed a failed break to the downside which met support at 1.5561. A
break over 1.5726 has now been realised, potentially initiating a furtherextension higher, moving comfortably back into the old range that existed
during the last calendar year. We now wait to see if an extension higher can
be realised, as this would be suggestive of a larger recovery higher,
thereafter.
We remain alert to the fact that we are nearing the base of the year long
range which, given the short-term relief seen in the Euro-Zone, may offer
opportunities to enter long positions. This may also be advantageous if
rising yields return to the Euro-Zone and Sterling attains a safe haven status
once again.
Taking this approach will need to see levels closer to 1.5400 for a well
placed stop. The range bound trade of the last few days is best avoided.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).
USD/JPY is weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level). There is an ever
growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre-
intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war recordlow beneath 75.35 (PINL).
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal
Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
USD/JPY
QUAKESHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POST
G7MOVE (I)
HIGH
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
PIR III
MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNANTICIPATE
SBREAKOUT(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf -
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Sustained over 0.9331 to target 0.9776.
USD/CHF has a short-term structure that is suggestive of a complete leg
higher from the 0.8568 low. This now acts to emphasise the 0.9331 high as
being pivotal to further gains. If a break above this level can be achieved,this will be suggestive of a larger swing, to potentially target 0.9776.
However, given events elsewhere, the fall from 0.9331 to 0.9066 is likely the
first leg lower in a larger corrective phase which may be affected by a return
to rising yields in the core bond markets of the Euro-Zone.
With this in mind, we note that the respite that was offered to 10 year Italian
government bond yields following the USD based swap rate cut may be
nearing completion. The current trading zone near 5.750% is expected to
see strong support, with the potential of a return back towards 7.00% overcoming weeks. If upside pressure were to return to Italian and Spanish
yields then USD/CHF will likely experience a degree of downside pressure
too.
Spanish and Italian government bonds have seen a reasonable sized
pullback over the last week, currently trading at 5.405% and 5.924% versus
6.478% and 7.355%, before the six party central bank agreement. (These
same yields were trading at 5.187% and 5.777% respectively at the same
time yesterday.)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Sharp Setbacks hold steady at 1.0080.
USD/CADs sharp setbacks are holding steady, following the recent short-
term DeMark exhaustion sell signal and has found support at 1.0080
A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.
Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks
into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9861 and 0.9726 (31st
Aug low).
EUR/CAD has accelerated its decline (-4% in 13 days) and is now targeting
the base of an important multi-month distribution pattern. A break beneath
1.3393-79 (19
th
Sept low/61.8% Fib), signals an important breakdown into1.3140 and would provide substantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.
CHF/CAD, which serves as a proxy for risk appetite, has also weakened
sharply beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the
uptrend since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.% Fib
retrace). A break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01st
March low) and help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENSLARGER
RECOVERY
DEMARKBUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA0.9861
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50%(1.3570)
61.8%(1.3379)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.3876)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
50%(1.1488)
61.8%(1.0893)
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Consolidating beneath its 200-day MA at 1.0405.
AUD/USD is consolidating beneath its 200-day MA which is currently
holding at 1.0404. This key level is likely to cap further potential gains.
The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside
pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand
dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-
day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.
The Aussie dollar is holding its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,
while trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern.
Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal
further unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD(Weekly)
38.2%(0.9144)
50%(0.8546)
61.8%(0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARKSELLSIGNALS
200-DMA1.0405
REVERSINGINTO
200-DMA
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(82.50)
13
38.2%(76.70)
61.8%(68.47)
50%(72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARKSELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION
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Rangebound since the start of December.
GBP/JPY has failed to gain any downside momentum, given the breakdown
from an hourly rising wedge. This failure to gain downside momentum is
consistent with movement in GBP/USD, which is suggestive of Sterling
being used as a safe haven, while uncertainty remains within the Euro-
Zone.
As noted in prior reports, should this pair reach the 123.00 level a degree of
resistance would be anticipated. In the meantime, we remain wary of the
short-term range bound environment.
If a return to and break over 122.64 can be achieved and sustained, this will
suggest scope for a larger recovery higher back towards 127.32. This ties
in to a medium-term expectation of a much larger corrective swing higher,
potentially back to 163.09.
If the recent range bound trade is resolved to the downside, then the 120.00
level should provide a degree of support, from where a further leg higher
would be favoured to develop.
A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Missed sell at 123.00. Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Sideways market continues for now.
EUR/JPY is exhibiting many of the same characteristics as a host of
currency pairs in the approach to the Christmas holidays. Most importantly
the recent bout of intervention by various central banks warns of a period of
coordinated intervention to maintain the stability of the Euro as a currency.
This acts as a manipulation of the market, making technical analytics
harder.
We view the fall that has taken place since 111.60 as being corrective in
nature, suggesting potential for a return to this same level. However, in the
shorter-term timeframe a corrective phase appears to have completed at
105.70. Thus we have a directional clash in two timeframes.
The EUR component of this pair is clearly affected by the movement in
EUR/USD. A break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the rising phase
seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall back down to
100.76 and potentially lower.
Given the above clash between the structure and events in the Euro-Zone,
we prefer to wait on the side lines.
A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-
term outlook more bullish.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Rangebound while above 0.8486.
EUR/GBP continues to trade within the 0.8486 - 0.8665 range, reaching
0.8511 yesterday. While above 0.8486 scope is seen for a rise back
towards 0.8700 to complete a larger corrective phase from the 0.8486 level.
In fact false breaks lower have been a hall mark of this currency pair in
multiple timeframes, so the strategy to sell higher will be maintained.
We continue to expect a return to rising yields within the Euro-Zone and it is
within this environment that we see the potential for Sterling to be perceived
as a safe haven. Core government bond yields have eased back somewhat
after the coordinated cut in USD based swap lines amongst selected central
banks. However, a lasting solution still appears a long way off. The fact
that there is a high demand for US Dollars from European banks is a
warning sign and a clear weakness suggesting scope for a credit
contractionary phase.
Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200
day and 50 week moving averages. As mentioned in prior reports the
1.3146 level in EUR/USD remains key. A push under this level will likely
lead to weakness in all EUR crosses, as it will mark a breakdown in
confidence in the EUR and also end the rising trend that has been
witnessed since the 1.1876 low seen in the middle of 2010.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8700, Objs: 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285, Stop: 0.8835.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Signs of supply seen close to the recent 1.2500 ceiling.
EUR/CHF Met supply again yesterday close to the 1.2500 ceiling that has
capped this pair for the last two months. However we will maintain our sell
limit strategy at 1.2480 as it represents a reasonable trade location if short
stops are targeted in thin Christmas markets. The return to the upper end of
the recent trading range has been assisted by the six central bank dollar
swap rate coordination.
A rising sovereign yield environment is anticipated to return to the core of
the Euro-Zone, which should assist the mild bearish bias, however, pushing
back under 1.2123/31 represents the real goal of a lasting breakdown in the
recent range bound structure.
The chance of collusion of central banks has made the current environment
difficult to trade from a technical perspective as free market movement is
one of the main assumptions of this analytic technique.
The repeated failure of this pair to break over the 50 week moving average
over recent weeks is also an initial warning that the prior downtrend may not
be over. The large cluster of stops that is likely to be placed around the
1.2000 level is also anticipated to aid any short positioning, questioning the
ability of the SNB to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Remains negative beneath $1800.
Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at $1800,
despite the recent push higher. Only a close above here would develop a
more sustained recovery into $1845.
Near-term support can be found at $1667 (21 Nov low). Moreover, there is
still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close
beneath $1600/04 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been
breached in 3 years!
A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040 - 1000.
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1800
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530
UPSIDE: $1760 /$1800
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf -
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Key support at $30.0000.
Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close
below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the
major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces
volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to
recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARKSELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.9638)
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT8 December, 2011
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14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
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