201006 Global Mega Eq Report Web

8/6/2019 201006 Global Mega Eq Report Web

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Jn 2010

Mega-earthquakeS

tO COMe?

Wn t e Movs:

reDEFININGCapital|Access|Advocacy|Innovation


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2

abo aon Bnildas indsy ld in y, cliv nd cpil ms, aon Bnld is dnin ol o insnc inmdiy

nd cpil dviso. to o nmcd ln nd indsy-ldin popiy ools nd podcs, w lp o clins o

dn mslvs nd i sccss. aon Bnld os nbisd cpil dvic nd csomizd ccss o mo insnc nd

cpil ms n nyon ls. as sd dvoc, w povid locl c o wolds ms, n npllld invsmn

in innoviv nlyics, incldin csop mnmn, cil, nd in ncy dvisoy, nd i possionls

o dvis clins in min opiml cpil coic o i bsinss. Wi n innionl nwo o mo n 4,000

possionls in 50 conis, o woldwid clin bs is bl o ccss bods poolio o ind cpil solions nd

svics. Ln mo onbnld.com.

tis docmn is inndd o nl inomion pposs only nd sold no b consd s dvic o opinions on ny spcic cs o cicmsncs. t nlysis

nd commns in is pp bsd pon aon Bnlds nl obsvions o insnc m condiions s o Jny 2009. Fowd looin smns

bsd on xisin condiions in mplc wic lwys sbjc o cn, o, cl m condiions my b milly din om

opinions xpssd in is pp. t conn o is docmn is md vilbl on n s is bsis, wio wny o ny ind. aon Bnld disclims ny ll libiliyo ny pson o onizion o loss o dm csd by o slin om ny linc plcd on conn. aon Bnld svs ll is o conn o is

docmn. Mmbs o aon Bnld anlyics tm will b plsd o consl on ny spcic siions nd o povid inomion din ms

discssd in.


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3

Conns

Executive summary 4

Cibbn (Lss anills) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

Cil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

Indonsi (Sm) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

Jpn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

No amic (Cscdi) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

Sources and further reading 26


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When The earTh Moves: MeGa-earThQUaKes To CoMe?

4

Wn e movs:M-s o com?

exciv smmy

2010 s ldy povn o b dvsin y o s, wi vns in hiind Cil povidin wold wi ic mind o pow nd dscivcpbiliis o s nl pils. t Cil ws piclly nobl, s

svn ls mnid v codd. Mos s o is ind podcd sbdcion zons: is po consids som o locions w scs my occ in nd sl in losss o insnc indsy.

MeGa-earThQUaKes

t Ml sc cnl Cil on 27 Fby 2010, o momnmnid (M

w) 8.8, is mos cn xmpl o sbdcion zon m-

. Sbdcion zon s podcd inc w nocnic pl slids bn no pl, nown s pp pl, nd down-oin pl dscnds ino inio o e s sbdcd slb. tis yp o

inclds lmos ll m-s o c e. t m m- sd in is po s o vns o momn mnid n 8.

t 2010 ws, owv, livly smll vn in compison o opvios, sbdcion zon s. I ws only 510% o siz (in ms omomn mnid) o ls o v bn codd (Cil 1960; M

w

9.5) nd lso sinicnly smll n 2004 Sm o Mw

9.3.

FindinG FaUlT: Where do MeGa-earThQUaKes oCCUr?

Pdicin locion o nx m- is n inxc scinc b by

xminin l lins nd isoicl pcdnc o civiy in v o wolds mos vlnbl ions, is po ss o o ssss cn is ndimpov o ndsndin o w nd wn nx m- cold i. Inddiion o scinic ssssmn, po covs ()insnc scos viwnd ddsss implicions o m- o c ion.


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aon BenField

5

W m f mj tquk c 1900

evalUaTinG The risK

Caribbean (Lesser Antilles)t bsnc o isoicl s on l p o is sbdcion zon cn bsd o in occnc o b vy l s. t 2cm y

o pl convnc is, in oy, no o podc m- o Mw9.0 onc vy 3000 ys o so, lo mo lily ocom is smll b silll sbdcion zon s invls o s lil s vy 5001000 ys.

a mjo loss wold icly s p vilbl insnc cpciy; poblm on ovly lin on limid nmb o innionl insnc ms.

Chileas only smn o Cil-P Sbdcion Zon no o v pd wiin ls 100 ys, no Cil smn is now considd o b ion i

is om n simil o, o l n, 1877 tpc o Ii (Mw

8.3). Sc n vn cold b compbl in siz o 2010 Ml wi possibiliy cosl ciis sc s Ii wold xpincl sismic innsiis, on Modid Mclli Scl (MMI) o VIII (dsciv) omo, nd l, ionlly dmin snmi cold b podcd s lsooccd in 1877.


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6

Cil o cos s d mos cn xpinc o m-.

rinsnc poms now nwin wi incss o 75% o mo, wi icldown c lily on pimy s om loss civiy nd s inss nw iinsnc nd y o pss on i cos o cov.

Indonesia (Sumatra)Pdn is now dd s bin i is om m- compbl o wic occd in 1797, wi mnid o 8.5 o mo. Sc n vn is lilyo sl in l sismic innsiis o MMI VIII (dsciv) o , lon 600m o cos nd on Mnwi Islnds oso.

rcn losss v cnd ()insnc byin bis in Indonsi wi mocsop cov bin bo in ion n pviosly. In vn o m-, insnc cov, wic is lly bin spplid bySinpo bsd innionl inss, wold ndobdly incs in picollowin sizbl insd losss.

Japant So Jpn Sbdcion Zon, lso nown s Nni to, s lonsisoicl cod o ny sbdcion zon. tis vls complx pno l s disibd mons smns: somims sbdcionzon xpincs pil p, incldin pis o s on sowsn

nd nosn smns, wils on o occsions wol sbdcion zonbs in m-.

Dpndin on locion, m- in is ion wold mos lilyb m-movin vn. Fo inss, Cil s bn n nins iss wil simil vn in Jpn wold lso lily i i cpil nd mos inss s i s p pil.

North America (Cascadia)t v cnc invl o sbdcion zon s in Cscdi (PcicNo Ws) is 550 ys b n o invls is bwn 300 nd 1200 ys.

rcn wo sss clsin o s ino sis o p o v vnsoccin ov 15002000 ys, spd by i piods p o 1200 ys lon.t v bn s in ls 1000 ys, wic sss w psnly in middl o n sis.


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aon BenField

7

t ls m- on Cscdi Sbdcion Zon occd 300 ys o,

js bo s o isoicl cods o ion. Wils so o mdimm pobbiliy o m- my b low, is ponil o sc nvn in nd inss sold no disd ssocid iss o ciiso Pcic No Ws ion.

oTher earThQUaKe soUrCes

alo is po ocss on m-s, s ions lso cd byo yps o conib o ovll sismic zd. In picl,pp pl s, podcd by n-sc domion in pl bov sbdcion zon, cn b loclly vy dsciv wn y occ n o vnwiin cosl owns nd ciis. In ddiion, l s occin dps o50m o mo wiin sbdcd ocnic pl, nown s inslb s, ccizd by nomlosly i sismic ny ls liv o i momnmnid nd cn s sl b piclly dsciv. rions w pppl nd inslb s sinicn conibos o ovll sismic is ccodinly nod in is po.

sTress TransFer

t pnomnon o sss ns sold b considd in ssssmn o

pobbiliy o sin om som o sbdcion zons discssd inis po. tis is wn occnc o m- on on p o sbdcion zon nss sss ono djcn smns, binin m clos o ilnd podcin sply incsd condiionl pobbiliy o p.tis pplis, ls, o Sm-andmn nd Jpn sbdcion zons nd is nonoin iss o sc o ddss.

CoMBininG experTise

t scinic viws psnd in is po wo o D Simon Dy aonBnld uCL hzd rsc Cn, bsd pon is inpion o p-viwd

li. t po combins is cdmic sc wi xpis o aonBnlds lobl anlyics nd boin ms.

t ol is o dliv lvn sc o inss nd inss ndwiin issin som o wolds mos pon s nd o c mo is wwold so clins, ovnmns nd non-ovnmnl ops b bl o pocnd ow i onizions in c o nl zds nd ccompnyin socio-conomic iss.


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8

Cibbn (Lss anills)

t sciniic viw

The FaUlT

t No amicn Pl is bin sbdcd wswds nd Cibbn Pl o bo 2cm y. t Lss anills Sbdcion Zon xnds no omtobo nd cvs sply ws o Po rico nc, w sbdcionoccs n nl is ily obli o non hispniol.


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aon BenField

9

The hisTory

Ps o Lss anills, mos nobly bwn islnds o Mini ndgdlop in so, nd non hispniol o nows, xpinc nmdim-sizd nd dmin sbdcion zon s. Mnids c 7.0 o 8.0nd pvios vns incld 1843 nd 2007 gdlop s nd 1946M

w8.0 hispniol . ts n, lss powl s indic

sbdcion zon is sonly smnd is non nd son nds.

In cons, lc o isoicl s in cnl p o c implis occnc o l, lss n s. avilbl vidnc indics pl bondy is no complly locd, so smns o sbdcion zon v

no bn ccmlin sin. Only bo 30% o convnc is bin sod po sss pl bondy nd n s. evn so, 2cm y o pl convnc is in oy scin o podc m- o M

w9.0,

pin wol sco om hispniol o gdlop onc vy 3000 ys o so.

I is, owv, nlily wol sbdcion zon wold p onc, s sbdcin No amicn Pl is sply bn con s o Po rico ndmy in c b spli in wo bnd. alnivly, my b wo smns wsnd sos o Viin Islnds nin Po rico, nd non Lssanills p in smll b sill vy l (M

w8.5 o mo) sbdcion zon

s invls s so s vy 5001000 ys.

The risK

Inn b ponilly m-s cold c non Lss anillsnd Po rico, implyin i lvl o is nd iliin nd o sc onpisoic s in ion.

t is lso vidnc ply locd ion o sbdcion zon is livlynow nd lis o s nd no o mos o islnds (Bbd, o no oani, my b n xcpion), so sismic sin om m- woldonly b mod. Sin wold, owv, b lon lsin nd ov lon piod,so licion o w sd cosl sdimn wold b sinicn scondyzd.

L s on Lss anills Sbdcion Zon v podcd sinicnnd dmin snmis, mos cnly s sl o 1946 hispniol .a m- on sbdcion zon is lily o n mjo snmi wold impc vily pon dvlopd cosl s wiin 30 mins o occin.


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10

upp pl s consi n ddiionl sinicn zd, spcilly lon

no cos o Po rico. h ily obli nl o sbdcion bn islnd s ld o inns domion on mny si-slip ls, wic disply minlyll s opposd o vicl movmn, wiin pp pl.

t ()insnc viw

insUranCe TaKe-Up

Insnc -p oo Cibbn is i i bo on commcil lvl

nd o piv individls, wi disinc conomic division bwn os wo liv inxm povy w no insnc is bo, nd os wo mployd nd willnlly by som cov sc s moo o popy. t ois insc wic islnds ly pon o mc o i incom is, s xpcd, vily insd.

e cov is wppd p in sndd popy cov nlly incldscsop cov o wind nd dm. t is opion o op oo csop cov lmn wic cn dc s by s mc s l o by b w is opion.

The MarKeT

acoss bod, insnc s in ion llin nd v bn o ls woys wi nnl dcions o 510%. a picl o Cibbn mis i lvl o popoionl insnc wic cs clos colion o son bo pimy nd insnc sid. to, i is d cpciy, s psn, insnc s will lso ll. I is no mjo loss nd pics conin oll, cold b dcion in insnc cpciy s civnss o wiinCibbn bsinss dclins.


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iMpaCT oF a MeGa-earThQUaKe

t Cibbn is viwd pimily in li o windsom pil; consnly is s bn somw ovlood lo hii nd Cil vdon mc o mind ion o is vlnbiliy o civiy. anymjo loss wold icly dc vilbl insnc cpciy s wll ssinicnly min-p s; pic iss wold in b pssd on vy icly o pimy sid.

Lss n 20 insnc ms povid mjoiy o cpciy o ion wiclso ms i vy vlnbl o so o cpciy i nmb o os ms sopwiin bsinss .

preparinG For The FUTUre

rcn vns v lso psdd mny inss o ssss i lvls o insncpocion wi som looin o ddiionl cov. ts s povid slloss d o clibion o csop modls o is ion, wic min yool o inss wo nd o bild in s mc ciny s y cn o ndsndini xposs.


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12

Cilt sciniic viw


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13

The FaUlT

t Nzc Pl is bin sbdcd bn P nd non Cil o6 7cm y, povidin ponil o m-s o bo onvy 100200 ys on ny ivn l smn.

The hisTory

M-s v occd oso om son P in 1604, 1784, 1868 nd2001, slin in i lvls o dm in cosl ciis nd lso sinicn snmis.

t snc o nown isoicl s o sbdcion zon smn o

nonmos Cil is mc so bcs is is o acm Ds: is only bcom popld in ls 150 ys. t ls m- in nonCil ws 1877 M

w8.3 , wic pd 500m lon smn o

pl bondy, incldin oso om modn ciy o Ii.

t Mw

8.8 Ml o 27 Fby 2010, wic csd xnsiv dmbwn Concpcion nd Vlpiso on cos o cnl Cil, pd onlyo smn o Nzc Sbdcion Zon s no bon sinc 1900. Om-s w in 1922 nd in 1960 l, son Cil o My 1960, bin ls v codd.

The risK

t no Cil Sbdcion Zon smn is now considd o b ion iis om p o 1877 , o n vn l vn compbl in sizo 2010 Ml . Sc n wold impc cosl ciis scs Ii wi l sismic innsiis o MMI VIII (dsciv) o mo. I is lso ob xpcd l, ionlly dmin snmi cold b podcd, s lsooccd in 1877.

P nd Cil lso s om son inslb s (p o Mw

8.0) in inio o sbdcd pl. ts occ dps o ond 50m nd inlnd om

cos bn Cnl Vlly o Cil nd cosl monins o P. tls inslb s, sc s os o 1939 in cnl Cil (25,000 ds) nd1970 in son P (66,000 ds, incldin 25,000 illd by lndslid idby ) my, in c, b mo dsciv nd psn is n l oso s sbdcion zon pl bondy isl.


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14

t ()insnc viw

insUranCe TaKe-Up

Insnc -p in is ion is vibl. In Cil, mo n 75% o l indsilnd commcil opions by nd cov, wil cov is lsscompnsiv o smll o mdim sizd compnis wi only 30% byin spcic cov. On sidnil sid, Ciln Insnc associion (aaCh) ss only 24% o conys oms v insnc. t is io os wi mo (90%) wil vy w (10%) wo do no v moins i om by cov.

The MarKeT

Wi limid ppi mons domsic insnc m o old ono is, mc o i is cdd o innionl insnc m. tis in n mns insnc ms nd condiions, nd picin, y div o pimy picino cov in Cil. Bo Ml m ws sonin obo insnc nd insnc. Fo ls o o v ys, s v bn dclinin ond 5-10% y-on-y o bo commcil nd sidnil popis nd wilil cn in ms nd condiions.


t nncil impc o Ml o cos is ldy bin l wiuSD8.0bn o oss losss, s o 31 Mc, pod o Finncil eiy Inomionby Ciln insnc compnis. Dspi siz o loss owv, aon Bnldconins o pdic Ml will no c lobl o ionl sosid o Cil.

Wiin Cil, insnc poms nwin wi incss o 75% o mo. I isxpcd spcic cns o Ciln insnc m will incld viw olimis by inss o ns y min i xpos nd lnin lssons

om vn. t will b picin diniion ccodin o yp o pooliond opicl spd o bsinss wil s nd ms nd condiions, sc s mo pcis vn dniion, bin considd.

a icldown c is lso lily on pimy s d o loss civiy, nd s inssnw i insnc nd mp o pss on i cos o cov.


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15


how Cil copd wi m o Ml ows p somposiivs. t sismic ninin cod pomd wll considin mnid o vn nd ol bildin collpss w no widspd. Fmo, ollowin vn ws no n iss nd snmi losss w connd o wiin 200 ms o cos cconin o lss n 5% o ovll losss.

Fo inss, ocs on ppin o csop vn in ms o cinly dlinwi volm o clims nd nsin i pocds in plc isimpon.

t is lso n opponiy o incs siz o pmim po om osomowns wo did no by cov bcs y did no v mosnd w no oblid o. Sllin vl o podc is ciicl . I is lsowo sssin wil inss diniin on poolios, inss nd ocp s mc dild inomion s y cn on i own boos in od o dvn o ny picin diniion.


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16

Indonsi (Sm)t sciniic viw

The FaUlT

t sbdcion zon ws o Sm is son coninion o Sm-andmn Sbdcion Zon pd in Mw

9.3 o 26 Dcmb2004. h, Indo-aslin Pl is bin sbdcd in nowd dicionbn esin Pl, on wic Sm is locd, o bo 7cm y. a slic o wsn Sm bwn wo min pls is movin no livo asi, so is lso mjo zd om pp pl s wiin csbn Sm.


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The hisTory

Wils non p o Sm-andmn Sbdcion Zon pps o ponly in m-s o M

w9+, sc s in 2004, scion so

o wsn cos o Sm ps in mo n, slily lss powl (Mw

8.29.0) s sill ily dsciv.hisoicl m-s v occd in 1797, 1833, 2005 nd 2007 isin om p o din smns lon ws cos o Sm. all, p om 2007 , v csd sinicnly dsciv snmis, lo no on scl o 2004 snmi.

The risK

t ion o 1797 l p, wic lis oso om cnl Smncosl ciy o Pdn, is now only smn o sbdcion zon sno pd in snc o s sinc 2004. Smll s scs os o 1861, 1935 nd 2009 i only bo smll pcs o sbdcionzon pl bondy o occd on inpl ls bov o blow i, nd did noliv sss s ccmld on 1797 p zon. Pdn is onow dd s bin i is om m-, compbl o o1797, wi M

w8.5 o mo. t is pdicd o podc l sismic

innsiis o MMI VIII (dsciv) o lon 600m o cos nd on

Mnwi Islnds oso.

Bodly spin, p s sm o occ lon spcic smns o Sm-andmn Sbdcion Zon, lo displcmn in c nd nc siz o slin dos vy bwn sccssiv vns. rp invlssm o b in od o vy 200300 ys, sppoin innc po 1797 cold b lily in n .

t pli nd sbsidnc d lso sow p zons xnd down sbdcion zon o ion bwn Mnwi Islnds nd minlnd coso Sm, so i is lily Pdn will b sc by mjo snmi wn nx, compbl in siz o in 1797, cs ion.


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18

t ()insnc viw

insUranCe TaKe-Up

Insnc pnion in Sm nd coss Indonsi is limid ond 2-3% wispcic pocion vn low lss n 1% no spisin in conyw v dily w is vy low. O os do by cov, bl is bo by commcil nd indsil scos wi only ond 15% boo sidnil pocion.

The MarKeT

Wi son compiion o bsinss on dic sid ond 100 inssopin in Indonsi s v bn sonin wi 10-20% discons binod y-on-y. tis pic conss wi insnc sid w s vsomw sbilisd ollowin in Pdn in 2009. howv, Pdnlosss, lly commcil in n, i mny o l insnc compnis wicsw incss o 5-15% on i insnc poms. t liv bndnc oinsnc cpciy s mn mjoiy o os inss lss cd by 2009 Pdn vn v bn sin dcions o 5-10%.

iMpaCT oF a MeGa-earThQUaKeLosss sc s os isin om 2009 Pdn v cnd byinbis wi mo csop cov bin bo n pviosly s cdns considi xposs. In vn o m-, insnc cov, wic islly bin spplid by Sinpo-bsd innionl inss, wold ndobdlyo p in pic on bc o sizbl insd losss.


Fom n pspciv, ion s ood bildin cods in plc b s no nocd o i no sndd. Poo liy conol, o xmpl, ld

o bildin dm din 2007 Yoy , wic cold v bnvoidd i bildin cods d bn ollowd poply nd nocd.

a y lsson bo om pvios Indonsin csops nd om woldwid incidnssc s Cil is inss nd o ndsnd w i xposs nd bcommo scinic in i pcsin o insnc wi s o ools sc scsop modls.


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19

Jpnt sciniic viw


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20

The FaUlT

t Pilippin Pl is bin sbdcd nd son Jpn (wic is locd on esin Pl) Nni to, o bo 4cm y. t sbdcionzon s wol xnds om so o kys o ion o ipl pl jncionsos o toyo, w Pcic Pl is bin sbdcd bn bo Pilippin nd esin Pls.

t snmos scion o Pilippin S Sbdcion Zon, w i comsonso Iz Pninsl nd conins s down Smi to, is soco s c toyo ion, s in 1703 nd g kno o 1923. tis snmos lso inclds toi smn o sbdcion zon.

The hisTory

Jpn s wolds lons isoicl cod o sbdcion zon s wiwin cods o s nd ssocid snmis xndin bc o ho o 684 aD. F vidnc o s s is povidd by coslcs lon Pcic cos o cony wic plid din snd sbsid bwn s.

M-s c Nni to scions o sbdcion zonbwn sowsn Sio nd Iz Pninsl, sows o toyo. t

Nni to is dividd ino Nni (sowsn), tonni (nosn)nd toi smns. alo isoicl cods mbios in som css, ipps Nni nd tonni smns p i in pis o sspd by os (s in 1854) o mximm o wo o ys, o occsionllyin sinl m- (s in 1707).

t bondy bwn Nni nd tonni smns lon Nni tolis nd kii Pninsl o so o Os. Mny cn psbn in is nd popd i o sows, o nos o in bodicions.

es pin on smn o o v mnids o 7.8 o 8.4; ls s pin lon wol sbdcion zon my v mnidsp o 8.6.


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21

The risK

Sinc 1360, invls bwn m-s lon Nni to v vidbwn 90 ys nd 150 ys. g invls ppn li in isoic codmy fc incomplnss o d. On o nobl s o sbdcionzon is son colion bwn ps o Nni nd tonni smns.I is no cl i toi smn ps in s s lon sbdcionzon o ws o i i ps indpndnly. to, bvio o toi smn is y nciny in ssssin iss slin om sbdcion zons in So Jpn.

upp pl s o no o Nni to, sc s 1995 kob

vn, slly mc smll n pl bondy s b v ponil o cs sv locl dm.

t ()insnc viw

insUranCe TaKe-Up

givn Jpns ily dvlopd conomy, insnc cov is pps nos widspd s xpcd. t-p is mods o indsil/commcil sco.Compnis do by cov i s n dd-on nd nd o by on s

loss bsis nd no ll vl. Foin compnis opin in Jpn owv by mocompnsiv pocion.

e cov o domsic xposs is od s n dd-on o popyinsnc policy by non li insnc compnis. ts xposs poold wi Jpn e rinsnc Compny (Jer), wic povids covp o JPY5,500bn (uSD58bn). roly 80% o is limi o libiliy is povidd by Jpns ovnmn.

t is lso ily dvlopd ml sco, no p o Jer Scm, wicccons o l pcn o Jpns xpos cs

innionl insnc m.


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22

The MarKeT

rs on bo dic nd insnc sid v bn i sbl. hvin js ono Jpns insnc sson 1 apil, s bn vidnc o slisonin wi plny o cpciy psin s down slily by ond 5%.

In lion o Jpns bsinss ws no obvios cion o Cil .tis my v bn d ply o occin mid-wy o nwl sson nd consnly bin inscin im o lly ssss impc. t insnc sid s no cd i nd is lil sin o incsd-p mons poplion wic s lon bn w o is.


a m- in is ion wold mos lily b m-movin vn. Foinss, Cil s bn n nins iss wil simil vn in Jpn wold lsolily i i cpil nd mos inss viw i s p pil.

Wi cn mods -p o insnc in Jpn, wold moslily b n incs in dmnd mjo loss. Fo xmpl, is occd ollowin kob loss in 1995.

preparinG For The FUTUret v bn w losss in cn ims o lp clib csop modls wic,o wi vid n o Jpns insnc policis, cn m ccssssmn o is i dicl. Wil ndsndin o i own poolios is vyood, w lly divs lvl o cov bo o mos Jpns inss loy imns on solvncy lvls.

Jpns cn bildin cods xclln nd s mnd by is livlymodn bildin soc. I is cony s w old bildins nd ps o pdmo lly; co will wo in is vo i i is sc by m- in .


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aon BenField

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No amic (Cscdi)t sciniic viw

The FaUlT

t Cscdi Sbdcion Zon is nly 1000m lon, xndin om CpMndocino in Non Clioni (unid Ss) o cnl Vncov Islnd in BiisColmbi (Cnd).

Cscdi s now locd pl bondy, wic is js 60120m wid nd dndby pn o onoin ond domion wic, p om Olympic Pninsl ws o Sl, is locd minly oso. any p will mos lilyocc bn s, wll o ws o mjo ciis o Polnd, Sl ndVncov.


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The hisTory

t s bn no mjo on sbdcion zon sinc eopnslmn. Sdis o cosl sbsidnc, snmi dposis nd colion wi snmi obsvd in Jpn, indic ls mjo occd in Jny1700 nd ws o ppoxim M

w9.0.

Plosismic nd o oloicl sdis indic 14 simil s in ls 7700 ys, lmos ll o wic sm o v pd ni ln o sbdcion zon; is lso som vidnc o ddiionl, smll s only p son djcn o son Oon nd NonClioni.

The risK

t v cnc invl o sbdcion zon s in Cscdi is 550ys, b n o invls is bwn 300 nd 1200 ys. rcn wo sssclsin o s ino sis o p o v vns ov 15002000 ys,spd by i piods p o 1200 ys lon. t v bn sin ls 1000 ys, ssin w psnly in middl o n sis.

Only mod lvls o sismic sin (MMI VI (son) o VII (vy son))

pdicd in mjo ciis, b s will b lon lsin: licion nd bildinsonnc cs will b impon in dminin lvl o dm. Scondyzds, sc s lndslids nd locl snmis, lily o b sinicn in PSond, ws o Sl, nd Vncov s, owin o ils in ic sncs opos-lcil nconsolidd sdimns.

Smll commniis on Pcic cos pdicd o xpinc lvlso sin MMI IX (inos) nd lso b ily vlnbl o cs o snmis.Dposis om ps snmis ssocid wi Cscdi s sc s in 1700indic s wold b ily dsciv om Vncov Islnd o Clioni.rcods indic snmi in Jny 1700 csd mod lvl o dmin Jpn.

O socs incld n inslb s ppoximly60m bn P Sond nd Si o goi, ws o Vncov, nd lss npp pl s n sc, in in P Sond nd Vncov s.ts cpbl o csin i lvls o sismic sin, b ov smll s.


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t ()insnc viw

insUranCe TaKe-Up

Insnc pnion in ms o cov ns ond 30%, bo ocommcil nd sidnil popy in Pcic No Ws. Picin is compiivnd cov is pobbly nnin l cos compd o p zons sc s Clioni. On spc o uS sidnil covwo mpsizin is bns nd mo lnds do no insis on insinins is is. t implicions o inss nd inss i is w o cnwold clly b ily sinicn.

The MarKeT

rs on bo pimy nd insnc sid v bn dclinin in uS. Focommcil nd sidnil popy, insnc coss o cov v llnby ond 5% ov ls wo o ys. rinss do no s ion s piclly vlnbl o -ld losss nd, s sc, s vsond wi plny o cpciy ond. Som compnis do s i s ood o divsiyin i poolio wn blncd p ins mo volil iss sc sFloid windsom.


t Cil nd hii s v d lil c on picin o ()insncwoldwid. I pps csop vns nd o b bi nd bi o bm nin. I is d o s w c m- in Cscdi wold v,i ny, on s oo wid No amicn ion piclly ivn low poplion dnsiy o Pcic No Ws . Invibly insnc picinwold spond on locl bsis.


Wils so o mdim m pobbiliy o sc Cscdi my blow cinly in compison o siion in Sm dild plosismicinvsiions v clly sblisd ponil o sc n vn in ndinss sold no disd ssocid iss o ciis o Pcic No Wsion.


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Socs nd din

Cl, J.J., 1997. evidnc o l s Cscdi sbdcion zon. rviws ingopysics, 35, 439-460.

Com, D. & Pdo, M., 1991. rppisl o g hisoicl es in Non Cil ndSon P Sismic gps. Nl hzds 4, 23-44.

goldn, C., Nlson, C.h., Jonson, J.e., nd sipbod scinic py, 2003. holocn ercods om Cscdi Sbdcion Zon nd Non Sn ands Fl bsd on Pcis Din oOso tbidis. annl rviw o e nd Plny Scincs 31, 555-577.

Ly, t. nd 13 os, 2005. t Sm-andmn o 26 Dcmb 2004. Scinc

308, 1127-1133.

Lyon, F., riz, S. & Splvd, S.a., 2009. Pliminy -vlion o pobbilisic sismic zdssssmn in Cil: om aic o tio Pninsl. advncs in goscincs 22, 147-153.

McCnn, W.r. & Pnninon, W.D., 1990. Sismiciy, l s nd min o CibbnPl. In: Dno, g. & Cs, J.e. (ds.) t Cibbn rion; t oloy o No amic, volm h.Pbl. goloicl Sociy o amic, Bold, Colodo. p. 291 306.

McClosy, J., Ln, D., tilmnn, F., Nlbn, S.S., Bll, a.F., Nwidjj, D.h. & riboc, a., 2010.t Spmb 2009 Pdn . N goscinc 3, 70-72.

rsso, r.M. & Villsno, a., 1995. t 1946 hispniol s nd conics o Noamic Cibbn pl bondy zon, nosn hispniol. Jonl o gopysicl rsc 100,6265 6280.

Si, k., 2006. Smn ms s: om scinc o svin livs. Pilosopicl tnscionso royl Sociy o London a364, 1947-1963.

Sin, S. & Ol, e.a., 2007. ullon piod sismic sdy o Dcmb 2004 Indin Ocn nd implicions o ionl conics nd sbdcion pocss. Bllin o Sismoloicl Sociy o amic 97 (1a) S279-S295.

Siym, Y., 1994. Noconics o sows Jpn d o i-obli sbdcion o PilippinS pl. gosic Inncionl 33, 53-76.


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27

Concs

aon Bnild

John Moore

hd o Innionl anlyics: +44 (0)20 7522 3973: [email protected]

paUl Miller

hd o Innionl Csop Mnmn: +44 (0)20 7505 7349: [email protected]

dr CaTherine loWe

Csop Mnmn: +44 (0)20 7522 3821: [email protected]

aon Bnild uCL hzd rsc Cn

proF Bill MCGUire

Dico: +44 (0)20 7679 3449: [email protected].

dr sTephen edWards

Dvlopmn Mn: +44 (0)20 7679 7880: [email protected].

dr siMon day

rsc: +44 (0)20 7679 3637: [email protected].


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200 e r d l S Ci Illi i 60601

abo aon Bnild rscaon Bnld rsc lso bins o o cdmic lionsips nd on bnn o dliv wl o lvn cdmic

sc mil. W combin wold clss cdmic sc wi aon Bnlds indsy-ldin csop modlin, cil

nlysis nd boin xpis o c mo is w wold.

201006 Global Mega Eq Report Web

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