2010 Midyear Real Estate Market Report for Lake Monticello and Fluvanna County

8/9/2019 2010 Midyear Real Estate Market Report for Lake Monticello and Fluvanna County

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Fluvanna & Lake MonticelloReal Estate Market Analysis

Data compiled and presented by:

Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed

86 Joshua LanePalmyra, VA 22963

434.589.5800AllAroundCharlottesville.com

Midyear 2010


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We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few thingsyou should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORSMultiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. Allof the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.

This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with properattribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

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We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any

questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of thereport, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, orsend an email to [email protected]. You can also sign up for our regular email newsletterby visiting: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

Strong Team REALTORS
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Introduction

Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely criticalin order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, thatsuch information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local realestate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand thatmarket data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. Wewant to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the bestdecisions for them.

Everyone has a feeling about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will showyou a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report

The data in this report looks back at the first half of 2010 (Jan. - Jun.) and compares it to the same timeperiod in 2009. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville,Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This isdone so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of theregion.



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Total Sales By Area

The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Areafor the first half of 2010. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume increased a whopping 22% in the first six months of 2010,compared with 2009. Sales numbers increased in 4 of the 5 areas. The only area that experienced a salesdecrease was the city of Charlottesville (-19%).

Nelson County was the big winner, almost doubling its first half sales (+80%). All of the other areas haveseen impressive increases-- Albemarle +32%, Fluvanna +29%, Greene +19%

It is obvious from these numbers, and especially when we look at the month by month sales later, that theHomebuyer Tax Credit had a tremendous impact on the housing market. The purpose of the tax credit, andthe reason for extending it through April, was to stimulate the sales of homes, and clearly that objective wasfulfilled.

The 22% increase in sales is very significant. The question that needs to answered as we go through the

remainder of the year is-- what will happen now that there is no more tax credit? While we dont exactlyknow, it stands to reason that sales will suffer something of a setback, or at least remain flat. It will be avery interesting second half of the year, and it will tell us whether or not 2009 really was the bottom of themarket.



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0

120

240

360

480

600

720

840

960

1,080

1,200

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total

Total Sales by Area

2009 2010Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during the first half of 2010 and2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the Fluvanna column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far,the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to

examine it individually, whenever possible.

As you might expect, both areas saw a healthy increase in sales. Sales increased in Lake Monticello by 7%,and sales increasing in all of Fluvanna County by 59%.

The reason for the big increase was definitely the Homebuyer Tax Credit. One way that we know this wasthe case was the increase in new construction sales in Fluvanna. Homebuilders did a very good job

promoting the tax credit, and many buyers took advantage of it. In fact, sales of new construction homesmore than doubled in the first half of 2010, compared to 2009-- from 16 to 37. That is a 131% increase! Ithas been many years since Fluvanna saw an increase in new construction homes that large on a year-over-year basis.


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0

9

18

27

36

45

54

63

72

81

90

Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales



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Charlottesville Area Sales by Month

The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares themonthly-by-month totals from 2010 and 2009. This chart is important because it gives a picture of theentire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

The numbers on the chart are certainly encouraging. This is true for two reasons-- 1. It is good to see theincrease in sales during the Spring Market in 2010 and 2. It is good to see that sales in 2010 are maintainingthe traditional seasonal trend.

The original deadline for closing on transactions that wanted to take advantage of the tax credit was June30th. That deadline was extended, but the vast majority of tax-credit-eligible transactions have already

closed. This means that the number of sales in July will be critical to understanding what the impact of thetax credit really was. If this number is close to the 2009 number, then that would be an encouraging signthat the market is, indeed, in recovery. If the number is significantly lower, that might signal that the taxcredit had an impact that will be sorely missed in the second half of the year.


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0

38

75

113

150

188

225

263

300

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Charlottesville Area Sales by Month



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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month

The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but theinformation is limited to Fluvanna County (including Lake Monticello) on the first chart, and to Lake

Monticello (only) on the second chart.

In looking at the monthly numbers for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, again the impact of the tax creditbecomes evident. May and June of 2009 were very tough months for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, butthat was not the case in 2010, where both months saw large increases in sales. In that way, 2010represented a return of the Spring Market for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello.

Just like the numbers for the larger area, July will bear a close examination, and we hope to see the salesnumbers increase that upward trend. July continued the rocky season in 2009, and hopefully 2010 will bemuch better.



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0

7

13

20

27

33

40


Fluvanna Sales by Month



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0

4

8

12

16

20


Lake Monticello Sales by Month




Median Price by Area

The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2010 is comparedto 2009, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. Themedian price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. Thereason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales ateither extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In the first half of 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $259,995. In 2010, themedian home price in the Charlottesville Area fell to $258,195 (-.07%). Results for the median price weremixed across the areas, with some seeing an increase, and others seeing a decrease. In all cases, however,the difference wasnt so extreme as to draw significant attention.

Lake Monticello experienced a very slight increase (3%) in midyear median home price.


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0

36,250

72,500

108,750

145,000

181,250

217,500

253,750

290,000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Median Price by Area

2009 2010* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Days on Market by Area

2010*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including LakeMonticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the

inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2010, there were299 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 126 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

We were surprised to see that the inventory numbers for 2010 were actually higher than the numbers for2009. Given the increase in sales, one would think that inventory should have been slightly lower, but it isobvious that even more homes must have come on the market than buyers could buy. So it looks likesupply is currently outpacing demand. This trend will need to be examined as we move through the year,

because we would hope that inventories would actually fall.


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290

301

312

323

334

345

356

367

378

389

400


Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200


Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

S ld Li t P i Fl & L k M ti ll



Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties inFluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2010 and 2009. The Fluvanna columnincludes all homes, while Lake Monticello refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receivingwhen their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, andcompares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effectof inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, thepercentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price,the final contract price was $192,000. Fluvanna County home sellers definitely did better, compared to listprice, in the first half of 2010 than Lake Monticello sellers did. The reason for this is that many of the salesin Fluvanna County were new construction homes. Construction companies are usually better atanticipating the market, and adjusting their prices accordingly. Many regular sellers are reluctant to pricetheir homes lower, and they suffer the consequences as a result.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaningthat many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price atthe time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect toreceive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers andsellers should act accordingly.


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L k M ti ll W t f t S l St t



Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats

The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello in the first half of2010 and 2009. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. Thechart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.

There have been significantly more waterfront sales at the midway point of 2010 than there were in 2009.Almost 3 times as many, in fact (8 vs. 3). As a result both the average sold price and the median sold pricehave risen in 2010. While waterfront inventory remains at historic highs, these numbers show that well-priced, high-quality waterfront homes are still in demand.

There is one thing worth noting that is not reflected in the data in the chart on the next page. The first is

that waterfront homes have sold for 94% of list price in 2010. This reflects the difference in the list pricevs. the sold price at the time of the contract, not the original list price when the home originally went onthe market.


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C l i


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Conclusion

The midyear market stats are definitely encouraging. It is good to see that sales are increasing all aroundthe Charlottesville Area.

As we mentioned, the main reason for this increase was clearly the Homebuyer Tax Credit. Now that thecredit is expiring, the effect of the tax credit has now been absorbed into the market. The July salesnumbers will be critical, as that is traditionally a time of high sales numbers, at it is usually the peak of theSpring Market. Without the tax credit to spur demand, however, it remains to be seen how this will impactJuly sales.

If July sales are close to the 2009 numbers, that would be an encouraging sign that the market is stabilizing.

If those numbers are drastically lower than 2009, then it would signal that the impact of the tax credit waseven greater than we might have expected it to be.

You can rest assured that we will be watching the market closely over the next few months, and you cancount on us to keep you updated and on top of all the changes and news you need to know.

Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make

an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and goodinformation provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.


Thank you


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Thank you

We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & LakeMonticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis bothinformative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may findit valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future marketanalyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected], or sign upfor our regular email newsletter at: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary toachieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have aboutreal estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever

it is needed. Please dont hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS86 Joshua Lane

Palmyra, VA 22963434-589-5800

AllAroundCharlottesville.com
http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2010 Midyear Real Estate Market Report for Lake Monticello and Fluvanna County

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