2010-06 Plans validation using DES and agent-based simulation · 2010-06 Plans validation using DES...
Transcript of 2010-06 Plans validation using DES and agent-based simulation · 2010-06 Plans validation using DES...
Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive
Faculty and Researcher Publications Faculty and Researcher Publications
2010-06
Plans validation using DES and
agent-based simulation
Soo, Andy Ong Kim
Proceedings of the 15th International Command and Control Research and Technology
Symposium (ICCRTS) 2010 "The Evolution of C2".
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/36611
Plans Validation Using DES and
Agent-Based Simulation
Andy Ong, Teck Hwee WongDefence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA)
Christian J. Darkens, Arnold H. BussNaval Postgraduate School (NPS)
15th ICCRTS
Agenda
Introduction Methodology
Overall Design Agent-based Plan Generation DES-based Simulator Design
Prototype Implementation DES-based Simulator Agent-based Strike Plan Generation
Experiment & Results Future Work
Introduction
Military plans validation is typically a long drawn process.
Require planners to validate plans using
Anticipated scenariosMilitary exercises
Image Source: http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/V/maps/USMC-V-16.jpg
Basic Concepts
Discrete Event Simulation Engine
Agent-Based Adversary Model
Red Plan
(DES Model)
Blue Plan(DES Model)
Blue Plan/Capability
Interactions
Outcome
Methodology
Main Building Blocks
Discrete Event Simulation Engine
Agent-Based Adversary Model
rike Plan
Model)
Air Defence Plan & Cap
Messaging & Event Handler
Display Component
Air Defence Plan & Cap,Air Strike Cap
Notifications Relevant to Aircraft Agents
All Events
Agent-Based Model Architecture
Central Tasking Agent
Evaluation Agent
Executing Agent
Database
Action / Reaction
-aluation
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
AircraftAircraftAircraftAircraft
Air Formation(Evaluation Agent)
Air Formation(Evaluation Agent)
Main Formations Controller(Central Tasking Agent)
Air Formation(Evaluation Agent)
Air Formation(Evaluation Agent)
Aircraft(Executing Agent)
Aircraft(Executing Agent)
Aircraft(Executing Agent)
Aircraft(Executing Agent)
Agent Architecture
DES-Based Simulator Design
ener nt ph ects
Prototype Implementation
DES Engine
Modeling SAM Sensor
SAM Sensor Event Graph
SAM System Event Graph
SAM Site Event Graph
FireMissile
CheckRange WithinRangeMissileSelfDestruct Adjudicate
Chase
SamSite If missile is within max range
If missile is out of range
tc
treload
If missile launcher is
empty and a reload is required
If missile launcher is not
empty
If missile launcher is not
empty
Reload
Gun Site and Gun Event Graph
Agent Model
Agent-based Model
gent model approach on air strike:Plan GenerationApproach vector generationA route generation
Weighted Map (Threat Map) Cell Based Decomposition - Grid A-Star optimize search algorithm
Plan Adjustment Individual aircraft as agent
Employ maneuvers
Approach Vector
Approach Vector ComputationDistance over the Air Defense coveragesExpose time over the composite Air Defense
Coverage'sSpeed of AircraftBased on scoring
Route Generation
Cell-based decomposition or real world abstractionReal World area is 40km by 40kmEach cell is represented as a pixel = 200 meters real worldTotal cells abstraction = 40000 cells
Agent Behavior
Agent behavior mechanism Input messages from simulator affecting the state of the agent
environmentAgent responses to incoming messages from simulator
Alert agent aircraft of Radar lock onDAR LOCK ON
Evasive ActionAlert agent aircraft of Anti-Airgunfiring
TI-AIR GUN ING
Evasive ActionAlert agent aircraft of Incoming surface-to-air missile
OMING SA SILE
Alert agent aircraft of Radar lock offDAR LOCK OFF
Update Agent Status (Aircraft status & Environment changes) Strike Action (Depending on Situation)
Positional updates of the agent in the simulation environment
SITIONAL
Agent Action Messageut Messages to Strike Aircraft Agent
Experiment & Results
Scenario
Air strike on protected site Attacker has knowledge
of the defence layout Attack plan generated
by Agent based tool Operational Analysis
Question: “How sensitive is our
attack plan to variation in the weapon systems?”
Design of Experiment
15 potential main effects65 design points NOLH was used50 replicas for each design pointOverall 65X50 = 3250 runs
For comparison, Full factorial 2 level design
2^15 = 32768. Overall 32768 * 50 = 1,638,400
runs Most factors are continuous, or
discrete with more than 2 levels …
100
200250
SAM
Loa
ding
Tim
e
1357
Mis
sile
Per
Laun
cher
5
7
9
SAM
Min
Ran
ge
4070
100130
SAM
Max
Ran
ge
5.5
6.5
7.5
SAM
Max
Spee
d
2
57
SAM
Enga
gem
ent T
ime
50
6575
SAM
SSK
P
4
6Gun
Rea
ctio
n Ti
me
25354555
Gun
Loa
ding
Tim
e
1
3
Gun
Min
Ran
ge
29323538
Gun
Max
Ran
ge
500700900
1100
Gun
Rat
eof
Fire
300Gun
agaz
ine
Size
Scatterplot Matrix
Partition Tree
SquareSquare Adjoot Mean Square Errorean of Responsebservations (or Sum Wgts)
0.8479530.8014080.1382963.836615
65
Summary of Fit
Regression Model
Analysis
The gun parameters has minimal affect on the outcome. It has reflected the scenario pretty well (recall that the agent generated plan avoids the AA gun).
The SAM Max Range and SAM Reaction Time are the two key main effects.
Analysis (Cont’d)
The mission should be reconsidered if the attacker is concerned about aircraft attrition and there is great uncertainty about the following:
SAM Max Range (preferably less than 109.4) SAM Reaction Time (preferably greater than 37.7)
Future Work
Future Work
Discrete Event SimulatorSensors model can be refined to reflect more
realistic characteristics Enhancements of sensor footprint of irregular
shapes Modeling sensor detection/undetection time
using the glimpse modelAir defense model can be made more
complex
Future Work (Cont’d)
Agent modelEnhance Route generation by adding
additional cost factors such as duration of exposure to threat
Implementation of a dynamic area of operation for individual air formation
Provides a realistic terrain model such as DTED map or vegetation information
Individual agent can be enhance further to include a Neural Net or a Bayesian network
Thank You