2009 Q3 MACRO

ECONOMIC REPORT

GONZALO BENJAMIN A.

BONGOLAN

GH C Source of basic data: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

National

Accounts

Amount (PhP Tn) Growth (%) %Contri-

bution to

GNP

Growth

(Q1 to Q3

2009)

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Q1 to Q3

2007-08

Q1 to Q3

2008-09

Q1 to Q3

GNP 1.15 1.19 6.0 3.3 100.0

GDP 1.03 1.04 4.2 0.7 19.6

NFIA 0.12 0.15 23.9 25.2 80.4

The Economy2009 Q1 TO Q3 PERFORMANCE, Constant 1985 Prices

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

The Economy2009 Q1 TO Q3 PERFORMANCE, Current Prices

National

Accounts

Amount (PhP Tn) Growth (%)

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Q1 to Q3

2007-08 Q1

to Q3

2008-09 Q1

to Q3

GNP 5.9 6.2 14.4 5.0

GDP 5.3 5.5 12.5 2.2

NFIA 0.6 0.8 34.5 30.4

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

The Economy2009 Q1 TO Q3 PER CAPITA GDP, GNP & PCE, Constant 1985 Prices

National

Accounts

Amount (PhP) Growth (%)

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Q1 to Q3

2007-08 Q1

to Q3

2008-09 Q1

to Q3

GNP 12,737 12,899 3.9 1.3

GDP 11,414 11,275 2.2 (1.2)

PCE 8,818 8,961 2.5 1.6

Population

(Mn persons)90.2 92.0 1.98 1.95

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

The Economy2009 Q1 TO Q3 PER CAPITA GDP, GNP & PCE, Current Prices

National

Accounts

Amount (PhP) Growth (%)

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Q1 to Q3

2007-08 Q1

to Q3

2008-09 Q1

to Q3

GNP 65,677 67,624 12.2 3.0

GDP 59,262 59,421 10.4 0.3

PCE 41,921 44,001 12.1 5.0

Population

(Mn persons)90.2 92.0 1.98 1.95

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

The EconomyMAJOR INDUSTRIES, Constant 1985 Prices

National

Accounts

Amount (PhP Mn) Growth (%)

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Q1 to Q3

2007-08 Q1

to Q3

2008-09 Q1

to Q3

AFF 181,368 183,718 3.4 1.3

Industry 341,343 331,571 4.8 (2.9)

Services 507,293 522,032 4.1 2.9

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

The EconomyMAJOR INDUSTRIES, Current Prices

National

Accounts

Amount (PhP Tn) Growth (%)

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Q1 to Q3

2007-08 Q1

to Q3

2008-09 Q1

to Q3

AFF 0.76 0.77 21.7 1.1

Industry 1.7 1.6 11.8 (3.6)

Services 2.9 3.1 10.7 5.9

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

National Income Accounts2009 FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER, Constant 1985 Prices

Expenditure TypeGrowth Rates %Contribution

to GNP Growth

(Q1 to Q3 2009)Q1 to Q3

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

GNP 6.0 3.3 100.0

GDP 4.2 0.7 19.6

Personal Consumption 4.5 3.6 76.7

Government Consumption 3.4 7.5 14.5

Capital Formation 6.8 (12.2) (65.1)

Construction 3.5 5.9 14.2

Durable Equipment 5.0 (15.0) (35.6)

Breeding Stock & Orchard

Dev’t(2.8) (1.1) (0.3)

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

National Income Accounts2009 FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER, Constant 1985 Prices

Expenditure TypeGrowth Rates %Contribution

to GNP Growth

(Q1 to Q3 2009)Q1 to Q3

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Exports 0.9 (15.5) (218.3)

Total Merchandise Exports 0.5 (19.9) (231.9)

Non-Factor Services 2.9 5.5 13.6

Transportation (9.9) (22.4) (8.0)

Insurance 37.1 15.0 0.2

Travel (4.6) (4.3) (4.1)

Government (49.7) 223.1 2.7

Miscellaneous ServicesIncludes IT-enabled services e.g. contact centers,

medical transcription, software development, etc.

16.8 20.0 22.7

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

National Income Accounts2009 FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER, Constant 1985 Prices

Expenditure TypeGrowth Rates %Contribution

to GNP Growth

(Q1 to Q3 2009)Q1 to Q3

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Imports 1.5 (7.0) 88.0

Total Merchandise Imports 0.3 (7.1) 82.9

Non-Factor Services 18.0 (5.2) 5.1

Transportation 45.1 (25.0) 4.7

Insurance 10.7 (29.6) 0.2

Travel 8.8 (5.0) 1.9

Government 65.5 (2.1) 0.1

Miscellaneous ServicesIncludes IT-enabled services e.g. contact centers,

medical transcription, software development, etc.

13.2 4.7 (1.8)

GH CSource of basic data: NSCB

National Income Accounts2009 FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER, Constant 1985 Prices

Industry TypeGrowth Rates %Contribution

to GNP Growth

(Q1 to Q3 2009)Q1 to Q3

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

GNP 6.0 3.3 100.0

GDP 4.2 0.7 19.6

Agri., Fishery, Forestry 3.4 1.3 6.3

Industry 4.8 (2.9) (26.1)

Mining & Quarrying (2.3) 22.4 11.1

Manufacturing 4.7 (7.5) (47.9)

Construction 5.9 9.7 12.9

Public (0.1) 22.5 62.4

Private 6.2 (5.6) (22.5)

Elect., Gas and Water 8.4 (2.3) (2.2)

GH C Source of basic data: NSCB

National Income Accounts2009 FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER, Constant 1985 Prices

Industry TypeGrowth Rates %Contribution

to GNP Growth

(Q1 to Q3 2009)Q1 to Q3

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

GNP 6.0 3.3 100.0

GDP 4.2 0.7 19.6

Service 4.1 2.9 39.4

Transport, Comm., Storage 4.2 2.0 4.9

Trade 1.7 2.7 11.9

Finance 5.0 6.0 10.2

O. Dwellings & R. Estate 7.1 (0.7) (1.0)

GH CSource of basic data: NSCB

National Income Accounts2009 FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER, Constant 1985 Prices

Industry TypeGrowth Rates %Contribution

to GNP Growth

(Q1 to Q3 2009)Q1 to Q3

2008

Q1 to Q3

2009

Finance 5.0 6.0 10.2

Banks 9.5 8.8 11.0

Non-Banks (5.0) (9.2) (1.3)

Insurance (6.6) 1.7 0.5

O. Dwellings & R. Estate 7.1 (0.7) (1.0)

Real estate 20.4 (9.5) (3.8)

Ownership of dwellings 2.4 2.9 2.8

GH C Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)

Business Confidence: 2009 Q3

GH C Source: BSP

Business Confidence: 2009 Q4

Business sentiment continues to improve in the fourth quarter of 2009.

GH C Source: BSP

Consumer Confidence: Q1 2007 to Q3 2009

GH C Source: NEDA and BSP

Macroeconomic Parameters: 2006 to 2010

ParticularsActual Forecasts

2006 2007 2008 Q1 to Q3

20092009 2010

Nominal GNP

(in PhP Tn)

6.5 7.2 8.2 6.2 8.9 9.7

Real GNP

Growth (%)

5.4 7.5 6.2 3.3 2.1 to 3.1 4.7 to 5.6

Nominal GDP

(in PhP Tn)

6.0 6.6 7.4 5.5 7.8 8.3

Real GDP

Growth (%)

5.3 7.1 3.8 0.7 0.8 to 1.8 2.6 to 3.6

Inflation

Rate, CPI

(2000=100)

6.2 2.8 9.3 3.52.8

(Nov. 2009)

2.5 to 4.5 3.5 to 5.5

GH C Source: NEDA and BSP

Macroeconomic Parameters: 2006 to 2010

ParticularsActual Forecasts

2006 2007 2008 Q1 to Q3

20092009 2010

Population

(in Mn)

86.97 88.71 90.46 92.0 92.23 94.01

91-Day

Treasury Bill

Rate (%)

5.4 3.4 5.4 3.81 4.5 to 6.5 5.0 to 7.0

Peso-Dollar

Exchange

(PhP/US$)

51.31 46.15 44.47 47.82 46 to 49 46 to 49

Dubai Crude

Oil Price (US$/barrel)

61.48 68.37 93.56 70.83(As of 10

December

2009)

50 to 70 60 to 80

Macroeconomic Parameters: 2006 to 2010

ParticularsActual Forecasts

2006 2007 2008 Q1 to Q3

20092009 2010

Export of Goods (2009 Q1 to Q3)

Level (US$ Bn) 47.4 50.5 49.1 37.6 41.0 to 42.0 43.0 to 44.9

Growth Rate (%) 14.9 6.4 (2.8) (22.8) (15.0) to (13.0) 5.0 to 7.0

Import of Goods (2009 Q1 to Q3)

Level (US$ Bn) 51.8 55.5 56.7 36.4 53.2 to 55.7 58.8 to 63.5

Growth Rate (%) 9.2 7.2 2.2 (29.2) (12.0) to (8.0) 10.0 to 14.0

Current Account Balance (2009 H1)

Level (US$ Bn) 5.35 6.12 4.23 3.9 4.08 n.a.

Percent of GDP 4.6 4.2 2.5 5.2 2.4 n.a.

Gross International Reserves

Level (US$ Bn) 23.0 33.75 37.6 43.7 38.0 n.a.

Equivalent

Months of Imports

4.2 5.7 6.0 8.08 6.7 n.a.

GH CSource: NEDA and BSP

GH C Source: Asia Monitor, 12 December 2009

Regional Indicators: 2007 to 2010

GH C

OBSERVATIONS

• Countries to continue fiscal stimulus

• U.S. to allow dollar depreciation to

maintain competitiveness

• Hold down interest rates until 2010 Q1

• Financial assets are getting expensive

• U.S. calling for other currencies to

appreciate

GH C

OBSERVATIONS

• Danger of BOP crises due to strong currencies (which encourage importation and foster asset price bubbles)

• Market to be cautious due to fiscal deficit; bench mark and borrowing rates to creep up

• Housing remains resilient but sales are slipping

• Risk premiums still high

• Equities trading to wait-and-see after strong rally

• Manufacturing to rebound

• Continued government spending

Merry Christmasand a

Prosperous New Year!!!

Thank you…