2009 Bob Costello Presentation
-
Upload
billstankiewicz -
Category
Documents
-
view
564 -
download
3
description
Transcript of 2009 Bob Costello Presentation
Economic & Motor Carrier Economic & Motor Carrier Industry UpdateIndustry Update
March 3, 2009March 3, 2009
Bob CostelloBob CostelloChief Economist & Vice PresidentChief Economist & Vice PresidentAmerican Trucking AssociationsAmerican Trucking Associations
Macroeconomic ViewMacroeconomic View
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
(Real GDP, 2000 dollars)
Worst U.S. Economy in DecadesWorst U.S. Economy in Decades
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(Real GDP, 2000 dollars)
Worst U.S. Economy in DecadesWorst U.S. Economy in Decades
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Source: IHS Global Insight and ATA
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2008 2009 2010
Baseline No Stimulus
Fiscal Stimulus ImpactsFiscal Stimulus Impacts(Real GDP, Annual percent change)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(Real GDP, Annual percent change, 2000 dollars)
U.S. Economic Growth Slips Well Below PotentialU.S. Economic Growth Slips Well Below Potential
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Forecast Starts with Q1 2009
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
2008 2009
Total Consumption Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Residential Fixed Investment Exports
Imports Federal Government
State & Local Government
(Real GDP, 2000 dollars)
Broad-based RecessionBroad-based Recession
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Department of Labor, and ATA
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Inflation No Longer a Concern, but Inflation No Longer a Concern, but Deflation is the New ThreatDeflation is the New Threat(Consumer Prices)
First annual drop since 1955
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fed Funds Rate 30-year Mortgage
(Average Quarterly Data; Percentage)
Interest Rates to Remain Low in Interest Rates to Remain Low in 20092009Interest Rates to Remain Low in Interest Rates to Remain Low in 20092009
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Consumer Outlook:Consumer Outlook:
Many HeadwindsMany Headwinds
Sources: Department of Labor and ATA
129
131
133
135
137
139
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S. Employment U.S. Employment
Millions; Seasonally Adjusted
Through January 2009
2008 was the largest drop since 1946.
Unemployment rate will reach 10% before the labor market improves.
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Q4:07 Q1:08 Q2:08 Q3:08 Q4:08 Q1:09 Q2:09 Q3:09 Q4:09 Q1:10 Q2:10 Q3:10 Q4:10
Baseline No Stimulus
(Cumulative job losses from the peak, millions)
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Fiscal Stimulus ImpactsFiscal Stimulus Impacts
Sources: Department of Labor, ATA, IHS Global Insight
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
Percent
Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller National Index and ATA
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Housing Price Index Housing Price Index
Average Annual Growth Rate: -8.5%2006 – 2008
0
1
2
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
(Millions of Units)
U.S. Housing StartsU.S. Housing Starts
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Department of Commerce, and ATA
466,000 in January 2009
Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Household Debt Service Ratio Household Debt Service Ratio Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
(Percent change, chained 2000 dollars)
Consumer Spending on Durables Is Hit Hard in This RecessionConsumer Spending on Durables Is Hit Hard in This Recession
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Fact: Households have lost $8 trillion of their net worth since the summer of 2007, which is enough to reduce consumer spending by $400 billion, or 4%.
Industrial OutlookIndustrial Outlook
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
(Includes Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities; Percent Change)
Industrial ProductionIndustrial Production
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Sources: Federal Reserve Board and ATA
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
U.S. Manufacturing ProductionU.S. Manufacturing Production
Through January 2009; 2000 = 100
6.8% drop peak-to-trough
Already a 13.0% drop peak-to-trough with more to come
10
12
14
16
18
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
(Millions of Units)
Light Vehicle SalesLight Vehicle Sales
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
Sources: Department of Commerce and ATA
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Total Business InventoriesTotal Business Inventories--toto--Sales RatioSales Ratio
(Includes retail, wholesale, and manufacturing; Through December 2008)
Inventories are bloated
U.S. Trucking IndustryU.S. Trucking Industry
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire Truck Tonnage Hire Truck Tonnage Index Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through January 2009
9.3% drop peak-to-trough
Already a 13.4% drop peak-to-trough with more to come
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: Department of Labor and ATA
1.30
1.32
1.34
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.42
1.44
1.46
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ForFor--hire Trucking Employment hire Trucking Employment
Millions; Seasonally Adjusted
Through January 2009
Employment fell 75,000 in 2008 and 25,000 in January 2009 alone.
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Loads Index Hire TL Loads Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through December 2008
Largest six-month drop since ATA began collecting the data in 1993:-23.2%
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Dry Van Loads Hire TL Dry Van Loads Index Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through December 2008
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Refrigerated Hire TL Refrigerated Loads Index Loads Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through December 2008
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Flatbed Loads Hire TL Flatbed Loads Index Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through December 2008
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Tank Loads Hire TL Tank Loads Index Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through December 2008
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Cumulative Decrease in Loads July Cumulative Decrease in Loads July 2008 through December 20082008 through December 2008
Dry Van
Reefer
Flatbed
Tank
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Cumulative Decrease in Loads July Cumulative Decrease in Loads July 2008 through December 20082008 through December 2008
Med-Haul
Long-Haul
Short-Haul
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Source: ATA
ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire Truck Revenue Hire Truck Revenue Index Index
2000=100; Through December 2008
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Truck capacity will Truck capacity will tighten once a recovery tighten once a recovery commences, but until commences, but until
then it will be difficult for then it will be difficult for fleets.fleets.
Truckload Demand vs Supply Truckload Demand vs Supply Through December 2008; 2000 = 100
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Demand:Demand: ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Hire TL Loads Index (left scale)Loads Index (left scale)
Supply:Supply: ATA’s ForATA’s For--Hire TL Hire TL Tractor Index (right scale)Tractor Index (right scale)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
Source: Avondale Partners, LLCSource: Avondale Partners, LLC
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q1
00
Q1
01
Q1
02
Q1
03
Q1
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Trucking Failures
Trucking FailuresTrucking Failures
Failures only includes fleets Failures only includes fleets with at least five truckswith at least five trucks
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
-2.6%
-0.4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2007 2008
Net Change in TL FleetNet Change in TL Fleet
Source: US Trade Data
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S. Used Class 8 Tractor ExportsU.S. Used Class 8 Tractor Exports
Rest of the World
Russia
Nigeria
In the longIn the long--run, trucking run, trucking capacity will remain tight capacity will remain tight
due to the driver due to the driver shortage.shortage.
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
9%
113%
87%
9%
58%65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Large TL Small TL LTL
Q3:2007
Q3:2008
LineLine--Haul Driver TurnoverHaul Driver Turnover
AnnualizedAnnualized RatesRates
Energy Price Energy Price Outlook Outlook
Source: Energy Information Administration
$0.90
$1.40
$1.90
$2.40
$2.90
$3.40
$3.90
$4.40
$4.90
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
OnOn--Highway Diesel PricesHighway Diesel PricesPrice Per GallonPrice Per Gallon
Record: $4.76(07/14/08)
$2.13(02/23/09)
Source: IHS Global Insight
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Crude Oil Prices Crude Oil Prices WTI, US$ per BarrelWTI, US$ per Barrel
Source: IHS Global Insight & ATA
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Retail Diesel Prices Retail Diesel Prices US$ per GallonUS$ per Gallon
Thanks!Thanks!